How exactly is ISIS a threat to our Vital National Interests?

[4321lynx]

Or, to bring precision to that analogy - a cigarette that is in an ashtray that might blow out of the ashtray that might land on a leaf that might ignite the leaf that might blow into some dry grass that might send up some sparks ... that might cause an actual small fire on the other side of the river from the town.

ISIS intends to eventually be a threat to us. The only way they won't be is if they're stopped first, either militarily or by a lack of funding.

By "us" do you mean the 51 States, starting with the most important - Israel?

 

[bilby]

Or, to bring precision to that analogy - a cigarette that is in an ashtray that might blow out of the ashtray that might land on a leaf that might ignite the leaf that might blow into some dry grass that might send up some sparks ... that might cause an actual small fire on the other side of the river from the town.

... and therefore, it's cool imperative to shoot a missile at anyone in the same country as anyone trying to light up a cigarette.

FIFY.

 

[thief of fire]

Can someone please identify for me why they are a threat to our vital national interests?
SLD

America needs oil, and IS are possibly a threat to that. It's hard to say though as all we know is what appears in the press, and I doubt that is the full picture. Some people think that IS's ultimate aim is Saudi Arabia

 

[Underseer]

Can someone please identify for me why they are a threat to our vital national interests?
SLD

America needs oil, and IS are possibly a threat to that. It's hard to say though as all we know is what appears in the press, and I doubt that is the full picture. Some people think that IS's ultimate aim is Saudi Arabia

ISIS is a threat to Saudi Arabia?

Well, in that case they definitely are a threat to our national security. I mean, if anything happens to Saudi Arabia, who will fund all those Madrassas? [/facetious]

 

[thief of fire]

But the basic idea - we need to nip this ISIS shit in the bud - I can get behind that. Our policy seems to be driven at least in part by an understanding that this is a problem we helped to create, and as such we need to be part of the solution.

Except that this strategy of bombing people including civilian areas doesn't work.
I'm tempted to be a smartarse and quote Einstein..."No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it." -

It seems that the only "solution" ever offered is to unleash some of the most horrific weapons ever devised onto them, and doubtless cause "collateral damage". I just wonder if there isn't some other way?

 

[thief of fire]

America needs oil, and IS are possibly a threat to that. It's hard to say though as all we know is what appears in the press, and I doubt that is the full picture. Some people think that IS's ultimate aim is Saudi Arabia

ISIS is a threat to Saudi Arabia?

Yes, I think that has to be one of their long term goals. I think it was having "infidel" US military bases in Saudi Arabia that was the root of Al Qaeda (or part of it at least).
Saudi Arabia not only has mammoth oil fields but it is the home of Mecca, and I don't think we can underestimate this in Islamic thinking.

 

[SLD]

ISIS is a threat to Saudi Arabia?

Yes, I think that has to be one of their long term goals. I think it was having "infidel" US military bases in Saudi Arabia that was the root of Al Qaeda (or part of it at least).
Saudi Arabia not only has mammoth oil fields but it is the home of Mecca, and I don't think we can underestimate this in Islamic thinking.

How exactly are they a threat to Saudi Arabia? If they are, are they so strong that Saudi Arabia can't handle them? Utter BS. It's exactly the scare mongering that the neocons are pushing down our throat. I could care less what their intentions are. Lots of people, probably inside Saudi Arabia would like to bring down the House of Saud. They're not our problem. Again, how is this OUR problem?

SLD

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Or, to bring precision to that analogy - a cigarette that is in an ashtray that might blow out of the ashtray that might land on a leaf that might ignite the leaf that might blow into some dry grass that might send up some sparks ... that might cause an actual small fire on the other side of the river from the town.

ISIS intends to eventually be a threat to us. The only way they won't be is if they're stopped first, either militarily or by a lack of funding.

And I intend to be richer than Bill Gates. They only way I won't is called "reality."

 

[SLD]

ISIS intends to eventually be a threat to us. The only way they won't be is if they're stopped first, either militarily or by a lack of funding.

And I intend to be richer than Bill Gates. They only way I won't is called "reality."

Yup! Like I said, all we hear is that they are a threat and must be stopped, but no explanation of how exactly. So far no one has answered the OP.

SLD

 

[Ford]

How exactly are they a threat to Saudi Arabia? I they are, are they so strong that Saudi Arabia can't handle them?

Funny thing about the Sauds...they don't "handle" anyone, near as I can tell.


They're sitting on a shit-ton of oil, the two most holy places in all of Islam, a stockpile of US military hardware that would make anyone other than Israel jealous, yet can anyone name the last country Saudi Arabia went to war with?


On their own?

 

[thief of fire]

Yes, I think that has to be one of their long term goals. I think it was having "infidel" US military bases in Saudi Arabia that was the root of Al Qaeda (or part of it at least).
Saudi Arabia not only has mammoth oil fields but it is the home of Mecca, and I don't think we can underestimate this in Islamic thinking.

How exactly are they a threat to Saudi Arabia? I they are, are they so strong that Saudi Arabia can't handle them? Utter BS. It's exactly the scare mongering that the neocons are pushing down our throat. I could care less what their intentions are. Lots of people, probably inside Saudi Arabia would like to bring down the House of Saud. They're not our problem. Again, how is this OUR problem?

SLD

I didn't say it was our problem. I just think that is probably one of their long term goals, quite apart from neo con propaganda. Saudi Arabia can handle them, but that doesn't mean they don't have it as a goal. As i menationed Mecca is there, the oilfields are there. It is a natural goal.

 

[SimpleDon]

How is it the same threat as Al Qaeda?

I don't think it is the same threat, but a similar threat born of unintended consequences.

Al Qaeda came into existence in no small part because some idiots got it into their heads that arming and training Islamic fundamentalists in Afghanistan was a super awesome way to fight the Soviet Union.

As I understand things, the "Islamic State" is an offshoot of (or a new incarnation of) what was known as "Al Qaeda in Iraq." An organization which would not have existed had we not gone blundering into modern Mesopotamia with dreams of enacting "regime change."

So the question at hand is, what do we do with this problem we helped to create? Or perhaps more importantly, where will this problem be in 20 years if we do nothing?

20 years ago, Al Qaeda wasn't that big of a threat. Just some crazy Arab in Sudan threatening world wide jihad. Five or six years later, folks in the know were writing memos with words like "Bin Laden determined to attack" and mentioning hijacked planes. For the most part, we did nothing. Lobbed a couple cruise missiles and washed our hands of the whole mess.


Now, I'm not saying I have confidence in Obama's "degrade and destroy" strategy. Nor do I have a lot of confidence in the "coalition" he's maybe assembled. But the basic idea - we need to nip this ISIS shit in the bud - I can get behind that. Our policy seems to be driven at least in part by an understanding that this is a problem we helped to create, and as such we need to be part of the solution.

I blame it on political correctness and the reluctance to read the Uncle Remus story about Br'er Rabbit and the Tar-Baby to our children.

The kids among us will have to Google it.

 

[Deepak]

How exactly are they a threat to Saudi Arabia? I they are, are they so strong that Saudi Arabia can't handle them? Utter BS. It's exactly the scare mongering that the neocons are pushing down our throat. I could care less what their intentions are. Lots of people, probably inside Saudi Arabia would like to bring down the House of Saud. They're not our problem. Again, how is this OUR problem?

SLD

I didn't say it was our problem. I just think that is probably one of their long term goals, quite apart from neo con propaganda. Saudi Arabia can handle them, but that doesn't mean they don't have it as a goal. As i menationed Mecca is there, the oilfields are there. It is a natural goal.

Ultimately, while the House of Saud aren't exactly angels they are a damn sight better to be controlling the resources in the region than ISIL or Al Qaida. We can hem and haw about economies that aren't oil based but the fact is that we don't have the ability to move to alternative technologies today. And without question US, and worldwide, interests are served by making sure groups like this aren't able to destabilize the region.

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow...

 

[thief of fire]

I didn't say it was our problem. I just think that is probably one of their long term goals, quite apart from neo con propaganda. Saudi Arabia can handle them, but that doesn't mean they don't have it as a goal. As i menationed Mecca is there, the oilfields are there. It is a natural goal.

Ultimately, while the House of Saud aren't exactly angels they are a damn sight better to be controlling the resources in the region than ISIL or Al Qaida.

Maybe.

We can hem and haw about economies that aren't oil based but the fact is that we don't have the ability to move to alternative technologies today.

Maybe, but I haven't mentioned alternative technologies.

And without question US, and worldwide, interests are served by making sure groups like this aren't able to destabilize the region.

Isn't it the US that has destabilized the region? The whole region is a lot worse off since the invasion of Iraq. I have serious doubts that strategies that have made things worse will suddenly work this time.
Do you think they will work this time?

 

[steve_bnk]

Oh Eye El.

If you live in the US northeast winter heating oil is of vital interest. Ukraine is facing a cold winter with Russia cutting gas supplies.

A significant threat by ISIS to disrupt oil supplies would wreck global oil prices.

Beyond the fear mongering ISIS does sound capable of using some types of wmd in the USA.

 

[steve_bnk]

Ultimately, while the House of Saud aren't exactly angels they are a damn sight better to be controlling the resources in the region than ISIL or Al Qaida.

Maybe.

We can hem and haw about economies that aren't oil based but the fact is that we don't have the ability to move to alternative technologies today.

Maybe, but I haven't mentioned alternative technologies.

And without question US, and worldwide, interests are served by making sure groups like this aren't able to destabilize the region.

Isn't it the US that has destabilized the region? The whole region is a lot worse off since the invasion of Iraq. I have serious doubts that strategies that have made things worse will suddenly work this time.
Do you think they will work this time?

I do not see how we destabilized the region.

The final collapse of the Ottoman's left a power vacuum. You might just as well say Ataturk and the creation of Turkey by force destabilized the region.

Egypt , Libya, Iraq, and Syria were never stable politically and were wracked by coups and civil wars The UAE and Saudi Arabia are stable by authoritarian rule.

Ironically the state that had the strongest democracy movement was Iran before the shah was installed by the USA. You will not hear it by the pundits today, we created the current Iran. In more irony, one of their heroes is an American who was killed fighting with the democracy movement.

Persians and the Arabs have very different intellectual histories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Baskerville#Life_and_death

You can not single out the USA without looking at the entire history.

When Arafat left college it was like he chose extremism as a career choice. He went to Jordan fomenting violence. It was Palestinians vs Jordanians. There was a civil war between West Bank Palestinians and ethnic Jordanians over control of Jordan. Jordan had annexed the West Bank before the Arab-Israeli wars.

Arafat took it to Lebanon as part of the Lebanese Civil War which had nothing to do with the USA. Beirut was leveled, used to be a travel destination.

The Persian-Arab Islam sectarian conflict has be going on for centuries. Hussein was trying to destabilize Saudi Arabia by subterfuge and association, and Iran was trying to destabilize Iraq.

The USA and Israel as well are really relatively minor sideshows that are convenient focal points.

People in region tend to identify by clan, sect, and family over any overarching national identity. Democracy was doomed from the start in Iraq. Without a strongman Iraq naturally divides into three parts.

I have started to hear it from conservative pundits, the region is not stable without authoritarian regimes.

I read a piece about a street in Lebanon with people connected to opposing Syrian factions living on opposite sides of the street. One day they all came out fighting in the street.

In contrast witness the peaceful settling of the desire by some Scots for independence, and the post war NATO and EU.

The political thought history does not exist in the region. State and govt was never divorced from religion. Ataturk tried to create a secular modern democratic govt in Turkey by force of will, and was successful to a degree. There is a strong conservative Islam streak in Turkey that challenges the state. Heresy and blasphemy laws are on the books.

Once elected in Egypt, Morsi quickly went conservative Islam.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And I intend to be richer than Bill Gates. They only way I won't is called "reality."

Yup! Like I said, all we hear is that they are a threat and must be stopped, but no explanation of how exactly. So far no one has answered the OP.

SLD

They're a small brush fire now. What does a brush fire do if nothing is done about it?

 

[bilby]

Yup! Like I said, all we hear is that they are a threat and must be stopped, but no explanation of how exactly. So far no one has answered the OP.

SLD

They're a small brush fire now. What does a brush fire do if nothing is done about it?

Regenerates the bush. Many plants have seeds that don't germinate unless exposed to fire. And if the fire is not close to a town, it is best to leave it be - it will go out once the wind changes.

 

[thief of fire]

It seems that one can always buy oil from ISIS though.
EU Official: Some EU members purchased oil from ISIL

A senior European Union official has revealed that some EU member states have purchased oil from ISIL Takfiri militants despite their rhetoric against the group.

In a briefing to the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, EU Ambassador to Iraq Jana Hybas-kova said some European countries have purchased crude from the ISIL.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Yup! Like I said, all we hear is that they are a threat and must be stopped, but no explanation of how exactly. So far no one has answered the OP.

SLD

They're a small brush fire now. What does a brush fire do if nothing is done about it?

In their wildest wet dreams, totally unconstrained by reality, they reconquer everything else once held by Muslims and can threaten the US.

But there is no scenario in which they become more than a small brush fire.

You might as well say "well, that guy in that cave with no income, no money, no friends, and no future, he would like to launch attacks at the US too, so he is an imminent threat."