How Should the West Respond to the Potential (likely) Collapse of Russia?

[Harry Bosch]

You people have shit put in your heads in your media.
Putin has 80% support, even after Kherson lkeaving to ukro-nazis.
Kherson was not lost, they left it. Even Ukrainian Reich was surprised by the leaving.
Russian forces were successfully destroying amphetamine filled ukro-zombies.
But beyond that, there was no pass forward, so they moved back to more defend-able position until better time.

Front line was never meant to be the way it is/was.

Oh my god! So now the Russian media is claiming that they are fighting zoombies! Like the walking dead! It would be swell if your troops withdrew all the way to Russia. Just continue leaving.

 

[Harry Bosch]

You people have shit put in your heads in your media.
Putin has 80% support, even after Kherson lkeaving to ukro-nazis.
Kherson was not lost, they left it. Even Ukrainian Reich was surprised by the leaving.
Russian forces were successfully destroying amphetamine filled ukro-zombies.
But beyond that, there was no pass forward, so they moved back to more defend-able position until better time.

Front line was never meant to be the way it is/was.

I actually think that Barbos is probably right that Putler has majority support in Russia. If anything, the only dissent that I see is Russians wanting Putler to be more brutal. Fight more. Kill more Ukrainians. Steal more land. For this reason, the west needs to continue flooding Ukraine with as much support as we can possibly muster. We need to find more sanctions against Russia. The goal should be to bankrupt Russia until they decide to stop their war.

 

[steve_bank]

On BBC American radio last night.

Khrushchev's grand daughter teaches in NYC and was reporting from Moscow.

She says people buy Putin's narative of the war being an exstential fight against NATO. His popularity has not dropped much.

Russia has more people above the age of 50, than teenagers. The average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59. The demographics speak for themselves. We all saw Putin's support evaporate when he called for mobilization and almost every draft age man with the resources fled the country. In five years, Russia will not be able to field an army half the size it now has. Russia will be a nation of old women and very old men.

In addition to this bleak projection, the educational system collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union. There is not a generation of 30-something engineers and scientists. The bulk of Russia's technical workers are in their 50s. See the above life expectancy statistic. Russia will not have a next generation fighter jet or tank. There is no one to design and build it. The money which could have rebuilt the Russian technical schools went to build super yachts and villas in France.

The arithmetic is pretty simple. It really doesn't matter that Putin appears to be popular. Every Russian casualty, which is quickly approaching 100,000, was someone's son, brother, or father. This does not count the wounded and permanently disabled. There will be a price to pay for that.

The number of people who support Putin will diminish year by year, either from the hard learned political reality, or natural mortality.

Back in the 90s it was reported Russians have a general health problem. Alcoholism along with poor nutrition. I'd have to check I think the population is shrinking. Unlike EU and North America nobody wants to emmigrate to Russia, except maybe Sbowden. I doubt he found a better alternative to America.

Going back to the Soviet Union agriculture collectivization along with inept transport system led to famines. There was an early 1900s famine and Russia was actually rescued by Europe and North America.

I believe sanctions over Crimea cut Russia off from EU food stuffs.

 

[steve_bank]

Yes Barbos, my head is filled with shit.

Shit like freedom of speech, beliefs, and democratic process. Shit like a political system that tries to limit abuse of power by government. It is not erfect but a whole lot better than the Russian alternative. Pepple want to move here and Canada, nobody wants to move to Russia.

I have gotten used to full grocery stores and eating decently every day. I have gotten used to being anle to say what I want without fear of government. I have gotten used to a free speech.

This shit smells pretty good to me.

You could not pay me to visit Russia even before the war. Same with Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Russian communist revolution failed. The Soviet Union failed because it could not supply basic needs for the people. Putin's Russia is failing over ideology just like the Soviets.

 

[ZiprHead]

Everyone knows the zombie apocalypse cannot be defeated, except for Barbos.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Zombie oligarchs eating Russian brains! Vampire Putin requiring the blood of young conscripts! The horror, the horror!

 

[Harry Bosch]

Zombie oligarchs eating Russian brains! Vampire Putin requiring the blood of young conscripts! The horror, the horror!

I'm just trying to imagine the Russian geniuses that are devising these strategies! "Let's see here, we need to find motivations to keep the people behind us and supporting the special operations! And we need to find an excuse that will maybe convince the west to abandon Ukraine. I know, gadzooks! We'll tell there is a zoombie outbreak in Ukraine. Our soldiers are fighting the zombies! Trying to save the world. Brave lads all!"

 

[Bronzeage]

On BBC American radio last night.

Khrushchev's grand daughter teaches in NYC and was reporting from Moscow.

She says people buy Putin's narative of the war being an exstential fight against NATO. His popularity has not dropped much.

Russia has more people above the age of 50, than teenagers. The average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59. The demographics speak for themselves. We all saw Putin's support evaporate when he called for mobilization and almost every draft age man with the resources fled the country. In five years, Russia will not be able to field an army half the size it now has. Russia will be a nation of old women and very old men.

In addition to this bleak projection, the educational system collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union. There is not a generation of 30-something engineers and scientists. The bulk of Russia's technical workers are in their 50s. See the above life expectancy statistic. Russia will not have a next generation fighter jet or tank. There is no one to design and build it. The money which could have rebuilt the Russian technical schools went to build super yachts and villas in France.

The arithmetic is pretty simple. It really doesn't matter that Putin appears to be popular. Every Russian casualty, which is quickly approaching 100,000, was someone's son, brother, or father. This does not count the wounded and permanently disabled. There will be a price to pay for that.

The number of people who support Putin will diminish year by year, either from the hard learned political reality, or natural mortality.

Back in the 90s it was reported Russians have a general health problem. Alcoholism along with poor nutrition. I'd have to check I think the population is shrinking. Unlike EU and North America nobody wants to emmigrate to Russia, except maybe Sbowden. I doubt he found a better alternative to America.

Going back to the Soviet Union agriculture collectivization along with inept transport system led to famines. There was an early 1900s famine and Russia was actually rescued by Europe and North America.

I believe sanctions over Crimea cut Russia off from EU food stuffs.

The Russian population is not only shrinking, it is aging rapidly. The birth rate after the fall of the Soviet Union fell dramatically. Russia's oil production was falling due to depleted reserves and the government was broke. The development of the Arctic gas fields created a new source of revenue, but instead of investing in repairing the fractured Soviet system, the money was stolen by Putin and the oligarchs. NATO and the west were truly alarmed by the Russian military budget and increased their own spending to match. As it turned out, Russian military spending was a hoax. The money never made it to the guy in green clothes. Less than a year into the Ukraine war and Russia cannot provide socks for newly mobilized troops.

It's true that no one emigrates to Russia, unless they have no where else to go. I imagine the ethnic Russian Ukrainians who have been bussed to Russia will be looking to return as soon as the conflict ends.

The Russian grain belt is an inland prairie. The North American grain belt from Arkansas to Canada has a one year weather cycle. Every year a reliable weather system brings rain from the Gulf of Mexico, which replenishes the ground moisture. The Russian grain belt has a five year cycle. This means good weather for 3 or 4 years and one year of drought. A poor crop or crop failure once or twice a decade is inevitable. Russia instantly goes from being a food exporter to importer. That will be very difficult with current sanctions, as Russia becomes a beggar nation.

A bad harvest will be the end of Putin, if the Ukraine war doesn't get him first.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Speaking of nazis.
There is video circulating of german (!!!!) reporters talking in Ukraine while ukrainian army vehicles are moving by him. Well, one of the BMPs had a ...... swastika on it

I saw this joke recently, "What is the difference between a Russian anti-Semite and a Ukrainian anti-Semite? Not much."

Okay, that isn't funny, but like anti-Semitism isn't funny... and this idea that Russia has some sort of ideological purity isn't that funny.

 

[steve_bank]

On BBC American radio last night.

Khrushchev's grand daughter teaches in NYC and was reporting from Moscow.

She says people buy Putin's narative of the war being an exstential fight against NATO. His popularity has not dropped much.

Russia has more people above the age of 50, than teenagers. The average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59. The demographics speak for themselves. We all saw Putin's support evaporate when he called for mobilization and almost every draft age man with the resources fled the country. In five years, Russia will not be able to field an army half the size it now has. Russia will be a nation of old women and very old men.

In addition to this bleak projection, the educational system collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union. There is not a generation of 30-something engineers and scientists. The bulk of Russia's technical workers are in their 50s. See the above life expectancy statistic. Russia will not have a next generation fighter jet or tank. There is no one to design and build it. The money which could have rebuilt the Russian technical schools went to build super yachts and villas in France.

The arithmetic is pretty simple. It really doesn't matter that Putin appears to be popular. Every Russian casualty, which is quickly approaching 100,000, was someone's son, brother, or father. This does not count the wounded and permanently disabled. There will be a price to pay for that.

The number of people who support Putin will diminish year by year, either from the hard learned political reality, or natural mortality.

Back in the 90s it was reported Russians have a general health problem. Alcoholism along with poor nutrition. I'd have to check I think the population is shrinking. Unlike EU and North America nobody wants to emmigrate to Russia, except maybe Sbowden. I doubt he found a better alternative to America.

Going back to the Soviet Union agriculture collectivization along with inept transport system led to famines. There was an early 1900s famine and Russia was actually rescued by Europe and North America.

I believe sanctions over Crimea cut Russia off from EU food stuffs.

The Russian population is not only shrinking, it is aging rapidly. The birth rate after the fall of the Soviet Union fell dramatically. Russia's oil production was falling due to depleted reserves and the government was broke. The development of the Arctic gas fields created a new source of revenue, but instead of investing in repairing the fractured Soviet system, the money was stolen by Putin and the oligarchs. NATO and the west were truly alarmed by the Russian military budget and increased their own spending to match. As it turned out, Russian military spending was a hoax. The money never made it to the guy in green clothes. Less than a year into the Ukraine war and Russia cannot provide socks for newly mobilized troops.

It's true that no one emigrates to Russia, unless they have no where else to go. I imagine the ethnic Russian Ukrainians who have been bussed to Russia will be looking to return as soon as the conflict ends.

The Russian grain belt is an inland prairie. The North American grain belt from Arkansas to Canada has a one year weather cycle. Every year a reliable weather system brings rain from the Gulf of Mexico, which replenishes the ground moisture. The Russian grain belt has a five year cycle. This means good weather for 3 or 4 years and one year of drought. A poor crop or crop failure once or twice a decade is inevitable. Russia instantly goes from being a food exporter to importer. That will be very difficult with current sanctions, as Russia becomes a beggar nation.

A bad harvest will be the end of Putin, if the Ukraine war doesn't get him first.

Nice summary.

Then it makes sense that Russia was moving Ukrainians form occupied territoy to Russia. In particular they would want young teems.

 

[steve_bank]

To deal with Russian zombies just leave out vodka. That's all they want.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Yes Barbos, my head is filled with shit.

Shit like freedom of speech, beliefs, and democratic process. Shit like a political system that tries to limit abuse of power by government. It is not erfect but a whole lot better than the Russian alternative. Pepple want to move here and Canada, nobody wants to move to Russia.

I have gotten used to full grocery stores and eating decently every day. I have gotten used to being anle to say what I want without fear of government. I have gotten used to a free speech.

This shit smells pretty good to me.

You could not pay me to visit Russia even before the war. Same with Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Russian communist revolution failed. The Soviet Union failed because it could not supply basic needs for the people. Putin's Russia is failing over ideology just like the Soviets.

Russia is a failed state because it is always run by depots. It is a mistake to say the Russians have no freedom because they are free to be imprisoned anytime they desire. All they have to do to earn same is make attempts to advance democracy. That'll get 'em a cell lickity split.

 

[Jayjay]

Speaking of nazis.
There is video circulating of german (!!!!) reporters talking in Ukraine while ukrainian army vehicles are moving by him. Well, one of the BMPs had a ...... swastika on it

I looked up that video. It looks like a black flag with an eagle and a black sun symbol rather than a swastika. Not that black sun isn't related to neo-nazi symbology, but it's not quite as on-the-nose as straight up swastika. And the black sun is popular in nazi sympathizers on both sides, like these Russian soldiers:

We've gone through this before, there are clearly nazis on Russian side too. Like this guy (Alexei Milchakov):



Or this guy (Pavel Gubarev, a self-proclaimed "people's governor" of DNR):



Putin himself invited this fucker to be his top speaker at the September annexation rally:

https://twitter.com/LeonardoGrilli1/status/1576440329448087554

Clearly Putin has no problem with nazis and fascists, as long as they're Russian nazis and fascists. At least the Ukrainian neo-nazis, who are few in numbers and have very little political clout, have a historical excuse because Germans fought Russia in WW2. Both sides should deal with their nazi problem after the war, but I doubt Russia can do it because imperialism and rabid nationalism is so ingrained in Putin's regime.

 

[steve_bank]

The current downward Russia trend in population is almost linear.

Russia Population 1950-2022

Chart and table of Russia population from 1950 to 2022. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

www.macrotrends.net

Age dustribution.

Russia - Age distribution 2021 | Statista

This statistic depicts the age distribution of Russia from 2011 to 2021.

www.statista.com

Japan has a similar problem. An aging population, low birth rate, and little immigration. They are reported working to increase immigration.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

On BBC American radio last night.

Khrushchev's grand daughter teaches in NYC and was reporting from Moscow.

She says people buy Putin's narative of the war being an exstential fight against NATO. His popularity has not dropped much.

Russia has more people above the age of 50, than teenagers. The average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59. The demographics speak for themselves. We all saw Putin's support evaporate when he called for mobilization and almost every draft age man with the resources fled the country. In five years, Russia will not be able to field an army half the size it now has. Russia will be a nation of old women and very old men.

Careful--life expectancy isn't the age people live to, your conclusions about their population are wrong.

A life expectancy of 59 doesn't mean people will be dropping dead at 59, it means a lot of people didn't make it anywhere near 59. Barring truly horrible problems in an area people typically live to something like 80. What life expectancy actually measures is early deaths, how many people are dying before their time.

 

[steve_bank]

Life expectancy is an average. It is an indicator of the general health of a population.

 

[Bronzeage]

On BBC American radio last night.

Khrushchev's grand daughter teaches in NYC and was reporting from Moscow.

She says people buy Putin's narative of the war being an exstential fight against NATO. His popularity has not dropped much.

Russia has more people above the age of 50, than teenagers. The average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59. The demographics speak for themselves. We all saw Putin's support evaporate when he called for mobilization and almost every draft age man with the resources fled the country. In five years, Russia will not be able to field an army half the size it now has. Russia will be a nation of old women and very old men.

Careful--life expectancy isn't the age people live to, your conclusions about their population are wrong.

A life expectancy of 59 doesn't mean people will be dropping dead at 59, it means a lot of people didn't make it anywhere near 59. Barring truly horrible problems in an area people typically live to something like 80. What life expectancy actually measures is early deaths, how many people are dying before their time.

Okay, if there are more people above the age of 50 than teenagers and the average life expectancy of a Russian man is 59, how many engineers and scientists can expect to die before their time?

 

[Elixir]

 

[steve_bank]

Before the drug problems and other problems death rates were modeled by the 'bath rub curve'.
gd people start from birth start a high death rate and it exponentially drops. It transitions into a somewhat flat curve. As age increases there is an exponential increase in death rates.

The probabilities are modeled by the Weibull Distribution. The cumulative distribution gives a probability of death over a time interval.

Bathtub curve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Weibull distribution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Electronics systems reliability use the same models.

 

[laughing dog]

To answer the OP title - Applaud and then offer humanitarian aid.