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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

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Do you understand that Ukranian people are dying? This isn't a game. Ukranian homes are being bombed. Blowing up hospitals and day care centers. And seriously, you think this is a game? I wish that Russians would go back to getting their rocks off by playing chess.

War has always been a game .. think
“War Games”…
One side wins the game the other loses.
Why?
Power to do what you believe is right.
Who is right? Both are right from their point of view. Both are wrong for killing people to get what they think is right.
The ridiculous religion of love preached by idiots in the name of god pffft
The Ten Commandments saying do not harm others??? Pfft
Instead let’s kill those who don’t agree with our love for them.
Religion is the greatest cause of evil.
And yet all religions preach “love others”
Come on people, we are more intelligent than that. The answer is indeed love others.
But selfishly forcing people to do what we want, is not loving them.
Doing things that make other peoples life more enjoyable is loving them.
We know it .. we preach it.. we need to do it.
Put our actions where our mouth is.
I'm not following you in the least. I don't want to strawman your position. But what in the world do you mean by "selfishly forcing people to do what we want, is not loving them"? I don't want to force the Russians into doing anything. I have nothing against their Russians. They are good providers of gas. They have some contributions to the space program. Their hockey team is good. But I'm just against them invading other countries.
 
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Russia's attempt destroy Ukraine will fail. Putin is pulling back. Most experts predict full retreat to Eastern Ukraine (Dontesk) in the next two weeks or so.
Putin will survive the setback, reform the military, and have another bite at the cherry in two or four years. He will definitely succeed with the annexation of all of Ukraine if part of the withdrawal agreement is Ukraine's demilitarisation, and probably even if the US/NATO provides Ukraine with a couple of billion dollars worth of armaments and training.
Except Russia has been strangled economically and those high end sanctions including Swift provide Ukraine substantial bargaining power regarding terms for peace such Putin out of Ukraine and paying for Crimea and the damage.

Ukraine is currently in a WWI standstill and it is up to Putin just how much more damage he wants to expose Russia and its military to.
The damage is not to Russia...
It is to the Russian economy and the young conscripts that were tossed into an attempted external military coup through broad show of force turn into muddled attempt at forcing regime change with the Russian military.
...it is to our entire existence once the nukes start flying like that bugs bunny cartoon where they keep bringing out bigger and bigger weapons…
Russia is saying to Ukraine do not attempt to control our economy or we are prepared to blow you to smithereenies
Ukraine consists of Slavs. The Russian people would never support mass scale murder of their own people.
 
I hate to ruin your morning but let me tell you this: Russia's attempt destroy Ukraine will fail. Putin is pulling back. Most experts predict full retreat to Eastern Ukraine (Dontesk) in the next two weeks or so.
Eastern Ukraine is still Ukraine, so it's only a partial retreat. And what Putin considers part of Luhansk and Donetsk goes way beyond what it had before the invasion.
 
This was no attempt to destroy Ukraine. That you’ll not benefit Russia. It was a control device to make the world know any attempt by any country to block access to the Black Sea would result in a war the Ukraine would not survive even with NATO support if they could get it. This is Russia using Ukraine like a political football… just a safety not a field goal or touchdown.. Russia has to much to gain by keeping the Ukraine as an asset.
Look at the map. Russia had Crimea before the war, and even if it didn't, it still would have other ports in the black sea. So what you're saying is utter bullshit. On the other hand, Russia in this war is clearly attempting to take the entire Ukrainian coastline from sea of Azov to Odessa (although the latter plan may have been delayed or abandoned due to Ukrainian resistance), thereby blocking Ukraine's access to the black sea.

Like all pro-Russian apologists, or idiots who believe Russian propaganda, you're blaming Ukraine for the things that Russia is actually doing.
 
I hate to ruin your morning but let me tell you this: Russia's attempt destroy Ukraine will fail. Putin is pulling back. Most experts predict full retreat to Eastern Ukraine (Dontesk) in the next two weeks or so.
Eastern Ukraine is still Ukraine, so it's only a partial retreat. And what Putin considers part of Luhansk and Donetsk goes way beyond what it had before the invasion.
Very true. However, clearly Putin's goals of 1) denazifying Ukraine (killing its leaders); 2) de-arming Ukrainians; and 3) separating Ukraine from the west has failed.
 
Russia's attempt destroy Ukraine will fail. Putin is pulling back. Most experts predict full retreat to Eastern Ukraine (Dontesk) in the next two weeks or so.
Putin will survive the setback, reform the military, and have another bite at the cherry in two or four years. He will definitely succeed with the annexation of all of Ukraine if part of the withdrawal agreement is Ukraine's demilitarisation, and probably even if the US/NATO provides Ukraine with a couple of billion dollars worth of armaments and training.
Except Russia has been strangled economically and those high end sanctions including Swift provide Ukraine substantial bargaining power regarding terms for peace such Putin out of Ukraine and paying for Crimea and the damage.

Ukraine is currently in a WWI standstill and it is up to Putin just how much more damage he wants to expose Russia and its military to.
When have economic sanctions ever worked against dictatorships? Putin's propaganda is already saying that the war was a pretext, and that the west was going to impose sanctions anyway. Soon the sanctions will become status quo and Russia will find ways to work around them, just like Iraq, Iran, or Cuba.
 
It would be fair to say that if Germany had not made the mistake of overestimating their ability to prevail over the Russian winter, the outcome would likely have been much different. The Russian people were offered up as cannon fodder, as usual.
😢
Elixir, excuse me for being rude now, but you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.

Firstly, no preparations for a Russian winter were made because Hitler was convinced that the war would be done and dusted well before then. He famously told his generals that all it takes to bring the Russians down is to kick in the door. The rest of the rotten shack will just collapse as a result of it. That is why no plans were made to winterise military hardware, nor were there any plans to provide the soldiers with winter gear. As a result panzers wouldn't start, come October, because the Diesel in their tanks was frozen solid and German soldiers died of frostbite by the thousands because they had no woollen socks or thick overcoats.

Secondly, the Russian people were not offered up as cannon fodder. They were targeted for genocide, regardless of whether they were Slavs, Jews or communists. The entire area up to the Urals was going to be cleared of its population in order to permanently clear the way for German Lebensraum. The Sonderkommandos followed hot on the heels of the German front soldiers to make this happen. They rounded up the fit inhabitants of one village and one town after another, and sent them back to Germany as slave labour. The unfit ones were made to dig mass graves, then executed. Later on cheaper ways of killing them were devised. Initially it involved gassing them in trucks using Carbon Monoxide. Then a more efficient way was to send them to concentration camps, where they were treated to showers consisting of Zyklon-B.

The war in the east was a war of annihilation by design. Documents authored by Hitler months before Operation Barbarossa commenced leave no room for doubt. The Russians were not cannon fodder. They were pests to be exterminated as quickly and cheaply as possible.

Edited to fix an error. Thank you, L. Petrich for pointing it out.
 
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Well, lots of talk this morning. A few points if I made. We are indeed at war with a Russia already. We’re just letting the Ukrainians do the fighting for us. We are supplying them, training them, and giving them intelligence as well as ISR support. Probably real time as Loren says.

As for joining NATO, I think we should after this. For one, they know how to fight. They could train us! Second it’s obviously necessary for them to maintain their independence.

I suspect peace will come again one day. Putin can’t live forever and I think his military machine is broke. This isn’t so much a war against Russia as it is simply against Putin. The question I still have is his personal staying power. Will his cronies eventually desert him? He’s spent the last few decades trying to prevent that. But there are signs of many cracks in his foundation. His FSB chief’s reluctance to endorse the war as well as his own PM. The missing defense chief, the defection of key advisors and the break down of a Russian senior officer in front of Americans all point to a sense that not all is well. Still most observers say Putin has been preparing his power so carefully that it is unchallengeable. Saddam Hussein managed to stay in power ruthlessly after Gulf War I. While many Germans were dissatisfied with Hitler after 43 there were never any serious challenges to his rule from the general population. The resistance was disorganized and futile. But they almost got lucky. Putin isn’t Hitler or Saddam. He’d like to be. But he doesn’t really command that kind of slavic devotion. I wonder if a combination of popular uprising and military revolt could be enough to push him out. I see him more like Tsar Nicholas in 1905. Thinking he could beat up a small power to bolster his regime and getting his butt kicked instead. But Nicky also survived the ensuing revolution of 1905 for another 12 years.

As for nuclear war, I don’t think they would go anywhere close to that. Putin might like to, but I think that such an order might likely trigger a massive refusal and his downfall.
 
Russia's attempt destroy Ukraine will fail. Putin is pulling back. Most experts predict full retreat to Eastern Ukraine (Dontesk) in the next two weeks or so.
Putin will survive the setback, reform the military, and have another bite at the cherry in two or four years. He will definitely succeed with the annexation of all of Ukraine if part of the withdrawal agreement is Ukraine's demilitarisation, and probably even if the US/NATO provides Ukraine with a couple of billion dollars worth of armaments and training.
Except Russia has been strangled economically and those high end sanctions including Swift provide Ukraine substantial bargaining power regarding terms for peace such Putin out of Ukraine and paying for Crimea and the damage.

Ukraine is currently in a WWI standstill and it is up to Putin just how much more damage he wants to expose Russia and its military to.
When have economic sanctions ever worked against dictatorships? Putin's propaganda is already saying that the war was a pretext, and that the west was going to impose sanctions anyway. Soon the sanctions will become status quo and Russia will find ways to work around them, just like Iraq, Iran, or Cuba.
These sanctions have been particularly impacting, especially access to Swift being sliced. Private corporations have pulled out and Russia is seeing a particularly fast impact of the sanctions occurring. An Oligarch has to sell his football team in England. That isn't a small thing.

While sanctions don't necessarily have enough of an effect, these new ones have been unprecedented in time of enacting and scope. Again, as I said, it is up to Putin how long he wants the hurt to go on for Russian citizens and his military. They are in a WWI style standstill. There is almost no way Russia "wins" this. And without China to cover the gap, Russia is going to pay dearly for every square kilometer Russia "takes".
 
It's carbon monoxide, CO, not CO2, which is the most immediately dangerous part of truck exhaust (and car exhaust and the like). Zyklon-B ("Cyclone B") was a trade name for a pesticide, hydrogen cyanide, HCN.  Carbon monoxide poisoning and for CO2,  Hypercapnia We can breathe 1% CO2 without noticing it, but we will die in a few minutes after breathing the same concentration of CO.

Mutinous Russian troops ran over their own commander, say western officials | Ukraine | The Guardian
Western officials have said they believe a Russian commander was run over by mutinous forces during the fighting in Ukraine, in a sign of what they described as the “morale challenges” faced by the invading forces.

They highlighted – and repeated – reports from earlier this week from a Ukrainian journalist that a colonel of the 37th separate guards motor rifle brigade was run over by a tank. Some reports said he had died of his injuries.

...
However, while there was some evidence to corroborate the claim that the commander had been run over, it was less clear whether, as the western officials claimed, the colonel had died.
 
Elixir, excuse me for being rude now, but you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.
No worries. Plenty of people have more detailed knowledge of the WWII European theatre than I do.
Firstly, no preparations for a Russian winter were made because Hitler was convinced that the war would be done and dusted well before then.

Right. And when it wasn’t over Hitler overestimated their ability to prevail over the Russian winter.

He famously told his generals that all it takes to bring the Russians down is to kick in the door. The rest of the rotten shack will just collapse as a result of it. That is why no plans were made to winterise military hardware, nor were there any plans to provide the soldiers with winter gear. As a result panzers wouldn't start, come October, because the Diesel in their tanks was frozen solid and German soldiers died of frostbite by the thousands because they had no woollen socks or thick overcoats.
… all of a piece.
Secondly, the Russian people were not offered up as cannon fodder. They were targeted for genocide, regardless of whether they were Slavs, Jews or communists.
Okay, that’s a lot more accurate than what I said. Not that Russian lives had any currency beyond their immediate utility.
 
It would be fair to say that if Germany had not made the mistake of overestimating their ability to prevail over the Russian winter, the outcome would likely have been much different. The Russian people were offered up as cannon fodder, as usual.
😢
Elixir, excuse me for being rude now, but you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.

Firstly, no preparations for a Russian winter were made because Hitler was convinced that the war would be done and dusted well before then. He famously told his generals that all it takes to bring the Russians down is to kick in the door. The rest of the rotten shack will just collapse as a result of it. That is why no plans were made to winterise military hardware, nor were there any plans to provide the soldiers with winter gear. As a result panzers wouldn't start, come October, because the Diesel in their tanks was frozen solid and German soldiers died of frostbite by the thousands because they had no woollen socks or thick overcoats.

Secondly, the Russian people were not offered up as cannon fodder.
Only in the sense that they were more tossed out there like speed bumps. The Soviet Union did not have the capacity to produce what was needed to arm its own people. 27 million dead. The Russians won survived via desperate attrition and starvation.
 
Only in the sense that they were more tossed out there like speed bumps. The Soviet Union did not have the capacity to produce what was needed to arm its own people. 27 million dead. The Russians won survived via desperate attrition and starvation.
The movie "Enemy at the Gates" had a scene pointing that out. They were handing out weapons to every other person. When they rushed the enemy, they ones without rifles were supposed to pick one up from a fallen comrade.

If the war in Ukraine goes south, Putin still has the option to mobilize the reservists. It would be a very unpopular move, but Putin doesn't have to concern himself with popularity.
 
Firstly, no preparations for a Russian winter were made because Hitler was convinced that the war would be done and dusted well before then.
Right. And when it wasn’t over Hitler overestimated their ability to prevail over the Russian winter.
By the time it became obvious that the Wehrmacht was about to be stuck in the snow it was way too late to equip it for the freezing temperatures. The distance from the Ruhr Valley, where most of the hardware was manufactured, to the front was 1,800 to 2,000 kilometres. Most of the roads were muddy quagmires and the railway tracks kept getting torn up by partisans. Estimations by the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht in Berlin irrelevant, By October it was totally preoccupied with damage control.

Way worse for the Nazis was the fact that they underestimated the enemy catastrophically. In part that was due to incredibly poor intelligence. As soon as the German invasion started, Stalin ordered the factories producing strategically important goods to be dismantled and reassembled east of the Urals. Germany knew that, of course. What it did not know was that there were three railway lines crossing the mountain range. Germany knew of only one. Military equipment sent from the other side of the mountains arrived at triple the rate the Germans anticipated. When the mud turned to ice Russian tanks, artillery and whatnot got into position and counterattacked on a massive scale nobody at OKW anticipated. The Wehrmacht got caught on the hop.

The Russian soldiers were fighting with determination, resilience, courage and willingness to sacrifice their lives because the very existence of their country was at stake. Today they don't because it isn't. Today they are the unwilling invaders, conscripts doing the bidding of a vainglorious oligarch who doesn't give a fuck about their welfare or fate. Therein lies the difference between now and then.
 
Why is Zelensky even having to ask for arms? There should be a menu of military goodies staged and available for the asking. This war appears to be going from an invasion of Ukraine to Ukraine possibly doing US a big favor. With arms ready when needed, Ukraine could kick Russia's ass all the way back to pre 2014 borders and I hope they do. They should stockpile weapons if possible because if they were to try and take back Crimea, the US and EU might start to puss out. But I might be speaking out of turn here.

Speaking of which. We do not know what the future holds for the Donbas region or Crimea for that matter. Or even for Putin. If Ukrainians are given all that they need to fight this conventional war, Crimea is very much in play and if Russians citizens get wind of this, Oh boy, Keti bar the door. Putin really starts to feel the heat. If the British Foreign Secretary means all of Ukraine when she says, "withdraws from Ukraine", well all right then, I agree with this definition of Ukraine to mean right up to the bridge in Kerch.
It is well established that Putin is a fucking liar. Promises of withdrawal and no further aggression fall on these deaf ears. Snapback sanctions would mean everyone getting on board again, hard and fast. Seriously, Foreign Secretary, are we this naïve? Snapback my ass. Waffleback will be more like it.

In my scenario, Putin does not use any CBR device against European slavs. The way things are going for him now, he's not going to chance these orders not being followed. Putin loses this war fair and square against Ukraine. Sanctions are eased against the Russian people as much as possible while trying to starve the Russian government for cash to whatever extent this is possible; Mickey D's yes, Nord Stream 2 no. Something like that.

If things go well and Putin is on his way out, we have an opportunity of Russia possibly giving up its nuclear weapons. Stranger things have happened. In a proper post-Putin government, President Navalny might do just that.
 
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It would be fair to say that if Germany had not made the mistake of overestimating their ability to prevail over the Russian winter, the outcome would likely have been much different. The Russian people were offered up as cannon fodder, as usual.
😢
Elixir, excuse me for being rude now, but you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.

Firstly, no preparations for a Russian winter were made because Hitler was convinced that the war would be done and dusted well before then. He famously told his generals that all it takes to bring the Russians down is to kick in the door. The rest of the rotten shack will just collapse as a result of it. That is why no plans were made to winterise military hardware, nor were there any plans to provide the soldiers with winter gear. As a result panzers wouldn't start, come October, because the Diesel in their tanks was frozen solid and German soldiers died of frostbite by the thousands because they had no woollen socks or thick overcoats.

Secondly, the Russian people were not offered up as cannon fodder.
Only in the sense that they were more tossed out there like speed bumps. The Soviet Union did not have the capacity to produce what was needed to arm its own people. 27 million dead. The Russians won survived via desperate attrition and starvation.
Yes, initially they were, and not just the infantry. Entire tank divisions were destroyed because the Soviets only managed to knock off one German tank for each six they lost. Gains were only made with superior numbers making up for inferior specifications. By January 1943 the table began to turn. Stalingrad was a close-run thing, but in the end the axis lost somewhere between 750 to 870 thousand men at the cost of 480 thousand Russians killed and 650 thousand wounded or sick. German soldiers were reduced to eating horse flesh to stay alive and freeze to death for lack of logistics, while T34 model tanks knocked off one Mark IV Panzer after another. Beginning with the brutal tank battle of Kursk five months later the slaughter of German soldiers started ramping up. Eventually, fighting retreats turned into routs. Attacks came out of the blue. More German soldiers died on the eastern front in the last months of the war than in the previous four years.
 
Why is Zelensky even having to ask for arms? There should be a menu of military goodies staged and available for the asking. This war appears to be going from an invasion of Ukraine to Ukraine possibly doing US a big favor. With arms ready when needed, Ukraine could kick Russia's ass all the way back to pre 2014 borders and I hope they do. They should stockpile weapons if possible because if they were to try and take back Crimea, the US and EU might start to puss out. But I might be speaking out of turn here.

Speaking of which. We do not know what the future holds for the Donbas region or Crimea for that matter. Or even for Putin. If Ukrainians are given all that they need to fight this conventional war, Crimea is very much in play and if Russians citizens get wind of this, Oh boy, Keti bar the door. Putin really starts to feel the heat. If the British Foreign Secretary means all of Ukraine when she says, "withdraws from Ukraine", well all right then, I agree with this definition of Ukraine to mean right up to the bridge in Kerch.
It is well established that Putin is a fucking liar. Promises of withdrawal and no further aggression fall on these deaf ears. Snapback sanctions would mean everyone getting on board again, hard and fast. Seriously, Foreign Secretary, are we this naïve? Snapback my ass. Waffleback will be more like it.

In my scenario, Putin does not use any CBR device against European slavs. The way things are going for him now, he's not going to chance these orders not being followed. Putin loses this war fair and square against Ukraine. Sanctions are eased against the Russian people as much as possible while trying to starve the Russian government for cash to whatever extent this is possible; Mickey D's yes, Nord Stream 2 no. Something like that.

If things go well and Putin is on his way out, we have an opportunity of Russia possibly giving up its nuclear weapons. Stranger things have happened. In a proper post-Putin government, President Navalny might do just that.
The problem is Russia. The west is mostly giving defensive arms to Ukraine (NLaws, stingers, javelins and etc.). It will take offensive weapons to retake areas where the Russians are digging in. However, offensive weapons (tanks, artilerilly) are mostly coming from the Russians. Some of these captured tanks are damaged and take time to retool for the front lines.
 
This was no attempt to destroy Ukraine. That you’ll not benefit Russia. It was a control device to make the world know any attempt by any country to block access to the Black Sea would result in a war the Ukraine would not survive even with NATO support if they could get it. This is Russia using Ukraine like a political football… just a safety not a field goal or touchdown.. Russia has to much to gain by keeping the Ukraine as an asset.

What he has accomplished is exposed his army's total incompetence on the world stage. The world used to be afraid of the Russian army, now they are not. This makes it much more likely that others who lived in fear of a Russian invasion will now stand up to Pootin.

It also means that there will now be a bunch of nations scrambling to become nuclear powers. The NPT is going in the trash. The world is a more dangerous place.
 
The damage is not to Russia it is to our entire existence once the nukes start flying like that bugs bunny cartoon where they keep bringing out bigger and bigger weapons…
Russia is saying to Ukraine do not attempt to control our economy or we are prepared to blow you to smithereenies

Ukraine wasn't trying to control Russia's economy in the first place. They were just refusing to kowtow to Moscow.

And we have seen the majority of Russian missiles fail when someone pulled the trigger. I expect it to be much worse with their nukes. Their boomers are hardly able to patrol and would most likely be sunk before they could even try to fire their birds.
 
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