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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Copernicus said:
It's worth returning to the thread topic, which isn't really about a talk given by an American political scientist in 2015. Nor is it about the Russo-Georgian war in 2008. It is about the current crisis in 2021, where Russia is poised to invade Ukraine again. Maybe Professor Mearsheimer holds the same views that he did in 2015, well before the COVID crisis reshaped the global economy, although he may have a different idea of the threats that China and Russia play in the current year. He isn't the only political expert out there, and he is but one of many political pundits in academia who have informed opinions about US-Russia relations.

The latest news seems to be that, despite Putin's denials that he is planning another unprovoked invasion of Ukrainian territory, he has now listed the terms under which he will refrain from doing so. Hopefully, these are just initial demands that he has put out there to try to leverage some concessions from the Western Alliance. He needs some kind of concession to save himself from losing face over a crisis that he himself has manufactured out of whole cloth. Nobody is threatening Russia with an invasion, and he isn't going to get veto power over who can join the EU or NATO. Those are non-starters for any serious negotiation. It would be foolish for the West to try to give either Georgia or Ukraine membership at this point, but Putin likely knows that nobody is really threatening to do that. The US is refusing bilateral talks with Russia for now, but it is willing to meet with other nations that have a stake in the outcome of such negotiations--major EU countries, Ukraine, Russia, and perhaps some Baltic states that Putin has added to his list of demands.

See: Russia Ukraine: Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions
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Putin needs enemies to maintain popular support. His numbers at home aren't so good, most Russians don't think Joe American is a bogeyman. This hurts Putin immensely.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?
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Donetsk is a part of Ukraine, and the current regime that governs it--the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (DPR)--is an unelected self-proclaimed government. It has no authority to request intervention from a foreign government that already props it up with financial and military assistance. Russia does not need to invade Donetsk, so any such request would have to be one that invited Russia to invade other sovereign Ukrainian territory. Putin currently needs a casus belli to justify its threatened invasion, so I don't think that this would be quite enough to satisfy him. Currently, he seems to be working on the idea that Ukraine is doing everything in its power to invite an invasion from its much more powerful neighbor that has already seized large chunks of its territory. And, if an invasion does occur, it will be all the fault of the US, EU, and NATO for refusing to sign a treaty that will give Russia concessions that will guarantee a Chamberlain-like "peace in our time" for eastern Europe. They are making him do it. :rolleyes:
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
So when the people of Donetsk voted to secede, that wasn't a real vote so it doesn't count.

Real democracies always vote in accord with US wishes. Got it.
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The vote does not matter since Ukraine did not release Donetsk. Which means as Copernicus points out, Donetsk is not a sovereign country, and Russia would be invading Ukraine if Russia intervenes.

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Jason Harvestdancer said:
Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?
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Jason Harvestdancer said:
So when the people of Donetsk voted to secede, that wasn't a real vote so it doesn't count.

Real democracies always vote in accord with US wishes. Got it.
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Laughing Dog is 100% correct. Your position in this thread is very much at odds with your earlier opinions. Are you honestly taking the stance that imperialism committed by the US is bad, but if done by other countries its okay?
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
So when the people of Donetsk voted to secede, that wasn't a real vote so it doesn't count.

Real democracies always vote in accord with US wishes. Got it.
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No it wasn't a real vote. It was the vote where the separatist were directed by Alexander Baraskov of the far right Russian National Unity Group to have the referendum approved by 89% as per Putin and lo and behold that is just what happened. Meanwhile pro Ukrainian activist were fleeing for their lives. People were confused as to what the referendum was actually asking, full independence or broad autonomy. Many others simply did not vote because it was illegal as all Ukrainians get to vote on territorial changes.
In actuality, the DPR has little regional support. While some agree with some form expanded autonomy, complete autonomy has almost none and joining with Russia has less than 20% support.
 
Copernicus said:
It's worth returning to the thread topic, which isn't really about a talk given by an American political scientist in 2015. Nor is it about the Russo-Georgian war in 2008
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How convenient. Let's not talk about past shit US did, because it's obvious US does not do that anymore...... right.

By the way this thread IS about a talk given by an American political scientist in 2015.
moderator stupidly merged it with other thread.
 
The ne
TV and credit cards said:
No it wasn't a real vote
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No, it was not, because Putin told them that Russia is not interested in taking Eastern Ukraine. So much for new Soviet Union aspirations.

Also, puppet regime in Kiev technically let Eastern Ukraine go when they banned russian language on the next day after getting in power. Plus they let them go when they proclaimed campaign of getting rid of Soviet legacy.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
barbos said:
No, it was mot, because Putin told them that Russia is not interested in taking Eastern Ukraine.
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If Putin said it then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt?
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And your point is?
You honestly believe that I am making shit up?
Eastern Ukraine unlike Crimea have never really had a legal right to leave.
Even though it was a former Russian territory given to Ukraine after revolution in order to create a bigger Ukraine, give more weight to constituent republics so to speak, or simply dilute "ukrainians", hard to tell.
Tsar before communists was doing the same - making Ukraine bigger and bigger by giving them more and more russian land. None of them had thought that one day NATO would try to expand into Russian land.
So, western views on borders don't apply to interior of Soviet Union and Russia befor that. They are pretty arbitrary and subject to rethinking.
 
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barbos said:
The ne
TV and credit cards said:
No it wasn't a real vote
Click to expand...
No, it was not, because Putin told them that Russia is not interested in taking Eastern Ukraine. So much for new Soviet Union aspirations.

Also, puppet regime in Kiev technically let Eastern Ukraine go when they banned russian language on the next day after getting in power. Plus they let them go when they proclaimed campaign of getting rid of Soviet legacy.
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It is true that Ukraine has its nativist fascists, just as Russia and the US do. So I agree with you that the language policy in Ukraine is a bad policy. Russian should be an official language. However, I also understand the desire of Ukrainian nationalists to revive the national language, which existed as a literary standard long before Moscow had thrown off the Mongol yoke and declared itself the "Third Rome" defender of Orthodox Christianity. It isn't my place or yours to dictate to Ukraine what its language policy should be.

As for Russia's interest in "taking Eastern Ukraine", that has already been proven by Putin's action to grant Russian passports to those living in territories controlled by local warlords and their Russian military allies. Putin himself has pretty much admitted that he thinks both Belarus and Ukraine should be part of the Russian Federation. He has most recently claimed that the Soviet collapse was "the greatest political tragedy of the century". (Presumably worse than WWI and WWII. :rolleyes:) He would also like to take back the Baltic states, but he doesn't dare attack NATO countries. Not yet, anyway.
 
Germany has openly declared that it is willing to discuss Putin's list of demands in exchange for his not invading Ukraine, but they have drawn a red line that excludes perhaps Putin's main objective: an ironclad agreement not to admit either Ukraine or Georgia into NATO.

Russia cannot ‘dictate’ NATO military posture, Germany says​


My own personal opinion is that the US and EU should give formal assurance that they do not seek to invite either country to join NATO at this time. A formal treaty to that effect should be out of the question for most Western countries. It could never be ratified by the US Senate. If Putin doesn't want those countries to seek NATO membership, then he should behave in such a way that doesn't scare them into seeking it.
 
Copernicus said:
It is true that Ukraine has its nativist fascists, just as Russia and the US do.
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Don't equate Russia and Ukraine or even US. Ukraine had fascist coup supported by US. And do you know who is nativist fascist in Russia? Your good friend Navalny.
So give me a break.
Copernicus said:
However, I also understand the desire of Ukrainian nationalists to revive the national language, which existed as a literary standard long before Moscow had thrown off the Mongol yoke and declared itself the "Third Rome" defender of Orthodox Christianity
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"Expert" linguist is speaking again. No, there were no ukrainian, russian languages back then, let alone standards. Moreover ukrainian barely have standard now.
Literary standard my ass. All greatest ukrainian writers wrote in ..... russian.
You had to be an idiot to write in ukrainian.

Copernicus said:
As for Russia's interest in "taking Eastern Ukraine", that has already been proven by Putin's action to grant Russian passports to those living in territories controlled by local warlords and their Russian military allies
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Even people in Eastern Ukraine need to travel abroad, the only way to do that is to have russian passport. Nobody forces them to get russian passports.
 
Copernicus said:
Germany has openly declared that it is willing to discuss Putin's list of demands in exchange for his not invading Ukraine, but they have drawn a red line that excludes perhaps Putin's main objective: an ironclad agreement not to admit either Ukraine or Georgia into NATO.

Russia cannot ‘dictate’ NATO military posture, Germany says​


My own personal opinion is that the US and EU should give formal assurance that they do not seek to invite either country to join NATO at this time. A formal treaty to that effect should be out of the question for most Western countries. It could never be ratified by the US Senate. If Putin doesn't want those countries to seek NATO membership, then he should behave in such a way that doesn't scare them into seeking it.
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Yes, that's what she said. We'll see how it is going.
At least it's getting into your thick heads.
 
barbos said:
Don't equate Russia and Ukraine or even US. Ukraine had fascist coup supported by US. And do you know who is nativist fascist in Russia? Your good friend Navalny.
So give me a break.
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Totally agree with you. Don't equate them. The Ukrainian government has far more legitimacy than the Russian government. Since the Orange revolution, Ukraine has had 8 presidential and parliamentary elections. All have been internationally recognized as free and fair. they have been according to outsiders colorful, creative, and highly competitive, with civil society scrutiny helping to ensure maximum transparency and numerous exit polls on election day offering remarkably accurate forecasts. The openness of Ukraine’s democratic system was reaffirmed in 2019, when political outsider Zelenskyy defeated incumbent Poroshenko to win the presidency by a landslide.

Of course, the Russian elections are a farce. Opposition leaders are poisoned and thrown off buildings. Then if that isn't enough, ballots are stuffed, no international monitoring, and etc. Putin is a dictator.
 
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