How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Speaking of "democracy" in Ukraine. Current president is not doing well in polls and is going to lose to previous one (Poroshenko). What is a solution? Accusing Poroshenko in treason for buying coal from Eastern Ukraine (which was not even proven)
Ukrainian Media is also under under attack.

 

[Axulus]

How could you possibly know that? You don't live there, and you aren't Ukrainian.

Unlike you I read actual news.
So, how do you propose people in Eastern Ukraine travel abroad?
Or people in Abhazia? or Soutern Ossetia?

By the way, it's not illegal to have passports of multiple countries.
And moreover Hungary does the same with Hungarians in Ukraine and nobody complains, well, ukrainian junta complains of course, but EU/US does not.
Same with Romania.
There are americans with russian passports too.

Putin's propaganda is not "actual news" just because it agrees with your biases, no matter how much you repeat this lie.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The solution seems to be to invite Putinstan into NATO. That way if Ukraine invades Putinstan Nato will defend Putinstan. Seems like a win for everyone.

 

[barbos]

How could you possibly know that? You don't live there, and you aren't Ukrainian.

Unlike you I read actual news.
So, how do you propose people in Eastern Ukraine travel abroad?
Or people in Abhazia? or Soutern Ossetia?

By the way, it's not illegal to have passports of multiple countries.
And moreover Hungary does the same with Hungarians in Ukraine and nobody complains, well, ukrainian junta complains of course, but EU/US does not.
Same with Romania.
There are americans with russian passports too.

Putin's propaganda is not "actual news" just because it agrees with your biases, no matter how much you repeat this lie.

What exactly in what I wrote is putin's propaganda?
Admit that you lost an argument, instead of singing this retarded putin's poropaganda song.

 

[Copernicus]

Speaking of "democracy" in Ukraine. Current president is not doing well in polls and is going to lose to previous one (Poroshenko). What is a solution? Accusing Poroshenko in treason for buying coal from Eastern Ukraine (which was not even proven)
Ukrainian Media is also under under attack.

So far, I don't think that Poroshenko has outpolled Zelensky in a single poll. Zelensky does have low polling numbers, but there are no potential candidates with higher ratings. Poroshenko is the most popular of the lot, but he appears extremely unlikely to beat Zelensky in an honest election.

Source:

Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian presidential election​

 

[barbos]

Speaking of "democracy" in Ukraine. Current president is not doing well in polls and is going to lose to previous one (Poroshenko). What is a solution? Accusing Poroshenko in treason for buying coal from Eastern Ukraine (which was not even proven)
Ukrainian Media is also under under attack.

So far, I don't think that Poroshenko has outpolled Zelensky in a single poll. Zelensky does have low polling numbers, but there are no potential candidates with higher ratings. Poroshenko is the most popular of the lot, but he appears extremely unlikely to beat Zelensky in an honest election.

Source:

Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian presidential election​

And?

The point is, Zelensky&Co tries to eliminate Poroshenko&Co with fake criminal charges. And if charges are not fake then you have a traitor running for president of Ukraine. Either way someone or both are dirty.

 

[Copernicus]

Speaking of "democracy" in Ukraine. Current president is not doing well in polls and is going to lose to previous one (Poroshenko). What is a solution? Accusing Poroshenko in treason for buying coal from Eastern Ukraine (which was not even proven)
Ukrainian Media is also under under attack.

So far, I don't think that Poroshenko has outpolled Zelensky in a single poll. Zelensky does have low polling numbers, but there are no potential candidates with higher ratings. Poroshenko is the most popular of the lot, but he appears extremely unlikely to beat Zelensky in an honest election.

Source:

Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian presidential election​

And?

The point is, Zelensky&Co tries to eliminate Poroshenko&Co with fake criminal charges. And if charges are not fake then you have a traitor running for president of Ukraine. Either way someone or both are dirty.

So you aren't even going to try to back up your claim that Zelensky was going to lose to Poroshenko in the next presidential election? No big surprise there. Your claim that the criminal charges against Poroshenko are "fake" is also based on hot air. Zelensky did get mentioned in the recent Pandora Papers scandal for shady dealings with his money, but nothing that even comes close to Putin, his Ozero cronies, and other characters in his government.

Pandora papers reveal hidden riches of Putin’s inner circle​

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country, but they do seem to be making some slow progress against it since Yanukovych was booted out. Putin has simply turned his country into a cash cow for his gang of kleptocrats.

 

[barbos]

So you aren't even going to try to back up your claim that Zelensky was going to lose to Poroshenko in the next presidential election?

No need to, you did. According to your link it's basically 50-50 between these two.
And momentum is against Comedian.
And again, that was not the point, the point was that both are bad and dirty.

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country,

It's way more corrupt on middle and low level of government than Russia which is fairly corrupt on all levels but is making progress. On high level it's really hard to say.

I mean you can say Putin and his closest circle are ultra rich, but can they really ever use these riches once they are out of the office? The answer is NO. Anyone of them who tries to buy anything substantial in the West will be immediately asked about source of their money.

 

[Elixir]

Bwahaha!
All that “culture” amassed on their border… yah, Ukraine really needs that, and all the other “help” Pooty has to offer.

 

[Copernicus]

So you aren't even going to try to back up your claim that Zelensky was going to lose to Poroshenko in the next presidential election?

No need to, you did. According to your link it's basically 50-50 between these two.
And momentum is against Comedian.

No, you don't understand how elections work in Ukraine. Zelensky is currently beating Poroshenko in every single poll. Although they look close to each other, you failed to take into account that those polls only measure a citizen's FIRST CHOICE in an election. Ukraine has runoff elections when no candidate gets a majority, so all the polls show is that there would be a runoff between Zelensky and Poroshenko, with Zelensky starting out with a larger base of support. That's how Poroshenko lost in the last election. He was clobbered by Zelensky in the runoff election by a landslide.

And again, that was not the point, the point was that both are bad and dirty.

That is neither proven nor a relevant point in this thread. This isn't really about which country has the most corrupt politicians running it, and it is pointless to make such an argument when Putin is arguably worse and dirtier than either Poroshenko or Zelensky.

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country,

It's way more corrupt on middle and low level of government than Russia which is fairly corrupt on all levels but is making progress. On high level it's really hard to say.

Perhaps it is just easy to say anything you want about corruption in both countries. I'm not going to get into a dispute with you over whether Russia or Ukraine has worse corruption and at what levels of government. I've had a little first hand experience with corruption at low levels in Russia. Putin's record of corruption is far better documented and takes place on a grander scale, but it is a distraction to get bogged down in such an argument. Let's return to the topic of the threatened Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will bring about a great deal of suffering in both Russia and Ukraine, if it happens.

I mean you can say Putin and his closest circle are ultra rich, but can they really ever use these riches once they are out of the office? The answer is NO. Anyone of them who tries to buy anything substantial in the West will be immediately asked about source of their money.

So what? The Pandora trove suggests that leaders like Putin and Zelensky know how to launder their money in the West, and Putin knows how to get around sanctions through straw purchases and accounts. The West is just a safe place to store money for corrupt leaders all over the world.

 

[fromderinside]

So you aren't even going to try to back up your claim that Zelensky was going to lose to Poroshenko in the next presidential election?

No need to, you did. According to your link it's basically 50-50 between these two.
And momentum is against Comedian.

No, you don't understand how elections work in Ukraine. Zelensky is currently beating Poroshenko in every single poll. Although they look close to each other, you failed to take into account that those polls only measure a citizen's FIRST CHOICE in an election. Ukraine has runoff elections when no candidate gets a majority, so all the polls show is that there would be a runoff between Zelensky and Poroshenko, with Zelensky starting out with a larger base of support. That's how Poroshenko lost in the last election. He was clobbered by Zelensky in the runoff election by a landslide.

And again, that was not the point, the point was that both are bad and dirty.

That is neither proven nor a relevant point in this thread. This isn't really about which country has the most corrupt politicians running it, and it is pointless to make such an argument when Putin is arguably worse and dirtier than either Poroshenko or Zelensky.

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country,

It's way more corrupt on middle and low level of government than Russia which is fairly corrupt on all levels but is making progress. On high level it's really hard to say.

Perhaps it is just easy to say anything you want about corruption in both countries. I'm not going to get into a dispute with you over whether Russia or Ukraine has worse corruption and at what levels of government. I've had a little first hand experience with corruption at low levels in Russia. Putin's record of corruption is far better documented and takes place on a grander scale, but it is a distraction to get bogged down in such an argument. Let's return to the topic of the threatened Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will bring about a great deal of suffering in both Russia and Ukraine, if it happens.

I mean you can say Putin and his closest circle are ultra rich, but can they really ever use these riches once they are out of the office? The answer is NO. Anyone of them who tries to buy anything substantial in the West will be immediately asked about source of their money.

So what? The Pandora trove suggests that leaders like Putin and Zelensky know how to launder their money in the West, and Putin knows how to get around sanctions through straw purchases and accounts. The West is just a safe place to store money for corrupt leaders all over the world.

Eyup. ... as Sam collects Putin assets.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I mean you can say Putin and his closest circle are ultra rich, but can they really ever use these riches once they are out of the office? The answer is NO. Anyone of them who tries to buy anything substantial in the West will be immediately asked about source of their money.

Maybe the Putin wants Ukraine so he can spend his money there. He's afraid of democracies because they limit his options and so we have his aggressive territorial behavior. That makes sense. What good is loads of stolen money if you can't spend it?

 

[Copernicus]

It seems to me that we are now in a situation that is a classic example of what political scientists call a Security Dilemma:

security dilemma, in political science, a situation in which actions taken by a state to increase its own security cause reactions from other states, which in turn lead to a decrease rather than an increase in the original state’s security.

Vladimir Putin has gathered his army on the Ukrainian border, claiming that his nation's security is threatened by the westward expansions of NATO and the EU. Although there is no imminent threat to bring Ukraine into those bodies, they won't agree to his demands to sign a formal guarantee to that effect. Basically, he is threatening to invade Ukraine if they don't, but Ukraine is in a purely defensive posture and not threatening Russia. So the Western alliance sees no basis for negotiation other than the surrender to Putin's demands, which bear an eerie similarity to Hitler's historical demand that everyone agree to his assimilation of the Sudetenland on the grounds that it was predominately German-speaking. Whether Putin sincerely sees Ukraine as a threat to Russia is beside the point. An invasion will trigger a defensive response in the West that will lead to a decrease rather than an increase of Russia's security. A classic example of the security dilemma.

Now that Putin has backed himself into a corner, he is really in trouble. He cannot keep the troops poised for invasion forever, and he isn't getting any face-saving concessions from the West, AFAICT. All they have to do is sit there and wait while Russian troops sit. If Putin withdraws them without concessions, he looks weak. And nobody should doubt that he put himself in a position where he is militarily strong, but strategically weak. The only guarantee he has so far is that the US won't send troops to Ukraine. An invasion would trigger all sorts of consequences for Putin, such as:

1. More NATO troops and weapons rushed to nations that Putin is demanding not have NATO troops and weapons (Baltics, former Soviet satellites).
2. Scrapping of his much-desired Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal.
3. Very serious financial penalties (e.g. blocking Russian ruble currency exchanges, seizure of assets in West)
4. International and diplomatic isolation
5. More commitment to upgrading defenses in Western countries
6. Possible spread of war beyond Ukraine
7. Domestic opposition within Russia could grow as an antiwar movement

 

[barbos]

The Bad Guys Are Winning

If the 20th century was the story of slow, uneven progress toward the victory of liberal democracy over other ideologies—communism, fascism, virulent nationalism—the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[barbos]

Gas is above $2000 in Europe.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Gas is above $2000 in Europe.

The US exports more LNG every year and expects to be the the top exporter in 2022. And with China committing to long term purchases, three more LNG export facilities will now get funded. Qatar will have a new export terminal coming on line in 2025.
In the interim, Russian saber rattling will just keep prices high ensuring LNG exports are lucrative for US, Qatar, and Australia.
You people are your own worst enemies. If you just would have taken your proper place in world society and learned to be a good neighbor after the collapse of the Soviet empire, you’d be a much more prosperous Russia. But no. You elected to use every weapon at your disposal, including energy to bully your neighbors.
Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army. They won’t win but they’ll bloody your nose.

 

[barbos]

Gas is above $2000 in Europe.

The US exports more LNG every year and expects to be the the top exporter in 2022. And with China committing to long term purchases, three more LNG export facilities will now get funded. Qatar will have a new export terminal coming on line in 2025.
In the interim, Russian saber rattling will just keep prices high ensuring LNG exports are lucrative for US, Qatar, and Australia.
You people are your own worst enemies. If you just would have taken your proper place in world society and learned to be a good neighbor after the collapse of the Soviet empire, you’d be a much more prosperous Russia. But no. You elected to use every weapon at your disposal, including energy to bully your neighbors.
Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army. They won’t win but they’ll bloody your nose.

View attachment 36441

It went right over your head

 

[Harry Bosch]

It seems to me that we are now in a situation that is a classic example of what political scientists call a Security Dilemma:

security dilemma, in political science, a situation in which actions taken by a state to increase its own security cause reactions from other states, which in turn lead to a decrease rather than an increase in the original state’s security.

Vladimir Putin has gathered his army on the Ukrainian border, claiming that his nation's security is threatened by the westward expansions of NATO and the EU. Although there is no imminent threat to bring Ukraine into those bodies, they won't agree to his demands to sign a formal guarantee to that effect. Basically, he is threatening to invade Ukraine if they don't, but Ukraine is in a purely defensive posture and not threatening Russia. So the Western alliance sees no basis for negotiation other than the surrender to Putin's demands, which bear an eerie similarity to Hitler's historical demand that everyone agree to his assimilation of the Sudetenland on the grounds that it was predominately German-speaking. Whether Putin sincerely sees Ukraine as a threat to Russia is beside the point. An invasion will trigger a defensive response in the West that will lead to a decrease rather than an increase of Russia's security. A classic example of the security dilemma.

Now that Putin has backed himself into a corner, he is really in trouble. He cannot keep the troops poised for invasion forever, and he isn't getting any face-saving concessions from the West, AFAICT. All they have to do is sit there and wait while Russian troops sit. If Putin withdraws them without concessions, he looks weak. And nobody should doubt that he put himself in a position where he is militarily strong, but strategically weak. The only guarantee he has so far is that the US won't send troops to Ukraine. An invasion would trigger all sorts of consequences for Putin, such as:

1. More NATO troops and weapons rushed to nations that Putin is demanding not have NATO troops and weapons (Baltics, former Soviet satellites).
2. Scrapping of his much-desired Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal.
3. Very serious financial penalties (e.g. blocking Russian ruble currency exchanges, seizure of assets in West)
4. International and diplomatic isolation
5. More commitment to upgrading defenses in Western countries
6. Possible spread of war beyond Ukraine
7. Domestic opposition within Russia could grow as an antiwar movement

I think that we are all in trouble. Putin still has considerable leverage in that he can cut off Europe from the gas (Europe probably needs the gas more than Putin needs the trade) and he can threaten war (including nuclear war) with the west. We are in a tough spot in that we can't withdraw Nato from the eastern European countries. Perhaps we can negotiate with Russia by not expanding NATO in Europe in exchange for Russia not invading. But this will only work if Ukraine is significantly beefed up with defensive weapons to persuade Russia that an invasion would be very painful.

I do agree though that Putin is not the genius chess mystro that he makes himself out to be. Nato has had lots of cracks into it started by Trump wanting them to beef up, but nato countries wanting to reduce military spending and focus on their economies. But rather than exploit this, Russia starting ratching up their agression - uniting Nato countries again. But it's a very dangerous time...

 

[barbos]

На Украине печатные СМИ обязали издаваться на украинском языке - Газета.Ru | Новости

Все печатные СМИ на Украине с 16 января 2022 года должны будут в обязательном порядке издаваться на государственном языке, сообщает пресс-служба Государственного комитета телевидения и радиовещания республики.

www.gazeta.ru

Starting Jan 16 russian language is banned in printed news. Not even ads are allowed.
English and EU languages are allowed, indigenous Languages are allowed too.
Basically everything is allowed except native language of 50% of population, probably more than that. That's gonna work great.

The only thing left is army, they need to ban russian language there and defeat will be assured

 

[barbos]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.