How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Everybody forgot Bucha?
Well, I have not been following that story for a while. Apparently it was proven that satellite images were fake. So no 3 weeks old bodies on the road, they are all from April 1. And you need to thank Ukrainian programmer who can determine a date of the picture by analyzing shadows. And then Turkey being a NATO member got real pictures with no bodies.

Plus someone (ukrainians) were using WW1 ammunition (really that old) which is not really banned but frowned upon. Lots of civilians ended up with flechettes in their bodies.

Sorry guys, all these civilians died shortly after or during russian forces leaving, when your nazis shelled the town with WW2 mines.

What do you have to say for yourself?
NATO collectively flat out lied about satellite images, only Turkey said "Fuck it!, we are out!"

Buddy, I'm sorry to tell you but the Russian news is about as reliable as dog shit. No one believes it. And of course Turkey didn't buy those lies either. People in the west aren't so gullible. And deep down, you know that your media is lying to you. Putler controls the Russian media. With all the death and misery that Putler is causing, I don't know how Russians sleep at night.

That's not russian news.
That's ukrainian news, fletchettes is from ..... them. Shadow analysis is from ukrainian experts and real pictures are from NATO member Turkey. And the whole bunch of secondary evidence from ...... France Press and other western outlets. Sat images ARE fake. They can't be real, 3 weeks in +15C temperature is not consistent with the state of the bodies on April 4

So much bullshit in one paragraph.

First, just learn to use google before spouting nonsense. This is literally the first hit:

Denying Bucha Massacre – Who Questions the Evidence?

On April 7th, the Turkish-language outlet “Aydinlik” published an article regarding the satellite imagery of corpses in the streets of

mythdetector.ge

The shadow analysis shows clearly that the satellite image date is March 19th. The temperatures at those times were not +15C, but around 0-10 degrees Celsius (don't remember the exact figures, this is something I checked the last time you made the incorrect claim about the bodies being "too fresh"). And all the secondary evidence just confirms that the bodies were there; British sources showed images from a different satellite, there's drone footage, and so on. Finally, the claim that Turkey released the "real" images is also dog shit. Turkey did no such thing. But this crap showed up on a pro-Russian, anti-Western Turkish website. From the above link:

About the Source

The online outlet “Aydinlik” belongs to the Turkish Patriotic Party (Vatan Partisi). The party has a Eurasian ideology and is therefore pro-Russian, pro-Chinese and anti-US. The party is calling for Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO and opposes Turkey’s candidacy for EU membership.

In 2009, Aydinlik was banned for 1 month on charges of propaganda of terrorism by the Istanbul court. In 2011, the editor-in-chief of the outlet, Mehmet Sabuncu, was arrested during an investigation into an alleged criminal network known as Ergenekon. Ergenekon members were accused of plotting a coup. Sabuncu returned to the position of Editor-in-Chief in 2014.

The outlet has published a number of pro-Russian content since the emergence of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Seriusly, who remembers Kharkov City Hall bombing now? Nobody. Same is here.

I remember your dodging the topic all right. It was a missile strike, not a bomb.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We have one moderately professional and well equipped army fighting un-professional and poorly equipped army with no air support.

Well to be fair, the lack of air support is probably due to fear that the Ukrainians would embarrass the un-professional and poorly equipped Russians still further by shooting down their planes.

s/would/have been/

Russia has been shown to be incapable of suppressing mobile radar-guided SAM launchers. If you fly up high these pose a serious threat, especially if they launch a few birds at your plane with a short spacing between them--evading a missile will put you in a disadvantageous position against a second missile following behind. Such missiles pose little to no threat to planes down in the weeds--but when you're down in the weeds you're quite vulnerable to taking a MANPAD up the ass if you fly past someone with a launcher. When they're over the target they can spew a bunch of flares to give the MANPADs fits, but you can't carry enough to keep doing for your whole run.

Effectively, this means the high airspace is denied and the low airspace is very hazardous when you come near something they consider worth sufficient defense.

We have the wild weasels to hunt down those mobile SAM launchers, Russia does not appear to have any similar capability.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We have one moderately professional and well equipped army fighting un-professional and poorly equipped army with no air support.

And the verb tense there is interesting, "fighting". The moderately professional, well equipped army is still fighting the Ukrainian Hogan's Heroes. That is an indicator, again, that things aren't going all hunky dory.

 

[Jayjay]

So, I'm confused on the Ukraine situation. Russia was re-amassing forces to the east, in what I thought would be a move to take control of the East half of Ukraine. Was the sinking of their support ship that debilitating to these efforts? Because, as far as I can tell, Russia hasn't made much of any additional progress in the East to speak of. I was figuring we should have been about the point Russia asks for peace, having conquered Eastern Ukraine. But that point looks almost impossible at this point, without Russia stepping up the technological side of things.

Russia has been making slow progress South of Izyum. Their plan, according to pundits I follow, is to cut off the supply lines of Ukrainian forces and maybe encircle them. But it doesn't look like it has worked as well as they hoped.

Too early to say how it'll go. Both sides are suffering losses. Ukraine is getting more weapons, but its supply lines are fragile. Russia still hasn't used the mobilization card. Not to even mention nukes.

 

[Elixir]

From a FB group:
“ The second best army in the world invaded Ukraine and became the second best army in Ukraine.”

 

[Jayjay]

Russia has been shown to be incapable of suppressing mobile radar-guided SAM launchers. If you fly up high these pose a serious threat, especially if they launch a few birds at your plane with a short spacing between them--evading a missile will put you in a disadvantageous position against a second missile following behind. Such missiles pose little to no threat to planes down in the weeds--but when you're down in the weeds you're quite vulnerable to taking a MANPAD up the ass if you fly past someone with a launcher. When they're over the target they can spew a bunch of flares to give the MANPADs fits, but you can't carry enough to keep doing for your whole run.

Effectively, this means the high airspace is denied and the low airspace is very hazardous when you come near something they consider worth sufficient defense.

We have the wild weasels to hunt down those mobile SAM launchers, Russia does not appear to have any similar capability.

Russia has already weaponized dolphins in this war so I wouldn't be surprised if they had actual wild weasels going after SAM launchers.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Putin the Planner - War on the Rocks

Observers commonly describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reckless gamble. But the Putin I came to know in St. Petersburg during the early

warontherocks.com

...
Putin The Planner
Andrew Goodman.
....

Goodman knew Putin as he rose to Russian dictator. Putin is indeed scum of the Earth and corrupt as hell. And interesting little article telling us a great deal about what Putin is and how he thinks.

Short take. Putin had hoped Trump would gut NATO, lead the US into isolationism, and then would take over Ukraine without too much fuss. When Trump lost and Biden reversed course over the US and NATO, Putin's plans changed.

 

[Elixir]

Putin the Planner - War on the Rocks

Observers commonly describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reckless gamble. But the Putin I came to know in St. Petersburg during the early

warontherocks.com

...
Putin The Planner
Andrew Goodman.
....

Goodman knew Putin as he rose to Russian dictator. Putin is indeed scum of the Earth and corrupt as hell. And interesting little article telling us a great deal about what Putin is and how he thinks.

Short take. Putin had hoped Trump would gut NATO, lead the US into isolationism, and then would take over Ukraine without too much fuss. When Trump lost and Biden reversed course over the US and NATO, Putin's plans changed.

The article is very clear that Pootler needs to be thrashed, neutered and kept on a short leash, even though the author does say so explicitly. And it’s going to take a long time and lots of pain to get there.
Fuck that guy and fuck his pawns.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

"30 minutes from the Kremlin" means nothing without specifying what's traveling those 30 minutes. 30 minutes by laser is very far indeed. 30 minutes by foot is quite another.

More telling is that the map is saying this is north of Moscow--if it was actually hit by Ukraine anything that did it also has the range to hit the Kremlin (although probably not the ability to penetrate it's defenses.) I wouldn't be surprised if it was internal sabotage, however--Ukraine would have hit closer, easier stuff. They don't need to go that far to take out Russian fuel, and fuel near Ukraine is a higher priority than fuel that far away, anyway. Some Russian who doesn't want to get sent to the war, though....

 

[barbos]

Are the satellite images from Maxar to be trusted? - waronfakes.com

On the evening of April 4, the New York Times posted a video from Maxar satellite. They claimed that the recording was made over Bucha on March 19. On the images, some dark spots are visible at the same places where the bodies of the killed people lie. Houses and wrecked cars are used as landmarks.

waronfakes.com

“Rybar” checked the angle of declination of the sun above the horizon, using the program SunCalc and was able to find out the exact time when the picture was taken. According to the them, it was taken on April 1, at 11 am GMT.

 

[Patooka]

Anybody curious what "waronfakes.com" is?

Russian embassy in Canada weaponizes social media to fuel support for Ukraine invasion

The Russian Embassy in Canada is active in spreading disinformation and promoting the Russian perspective on the events taking place in Ukraine.

theconversation.com

Russian propaganda disguising as fact-checking: a statement from the EDMO Taskforce

Russian propaganda disguising as fact-checking: a statement from the EDMO Taskforce

edmo.eu

 

[barbos]

Anybody curious what "waronfakes.com" is?

Don't know. All I know is how 3 weeks old body should look like in warm weather.

Plus I know objects can't magically disappear and then appear few frames later.

 

[Patooka]

Anybody curious what "waronfakes.com" is?

Don't know. All I know is how 3 weeks old body should look like in warm weather.

Plus I know objects can't magically disappear and then appear few frames later.

You don't know that waronfakes is a Russian state sponsored propaganda site but you're willing to use it to further your bullshit narrative.

I've gotta be honest, your total indifference to credibility fascinates me.

 

[barbos]

Russian nazi was found!
For some reason he was a member of ..... Azov. But according to him he has jewish and Azerbaijan friends. He also explained why so many buildings have have been hit on upper floors.

 

[barbos]

You don't know that waronfakes is a Russian state sponsored propaganda site

According to who? And even if it so, how does that change laws of physics?

 

[barbos]

I've gotta be honest, your total indifference to credibility fascinates me

That's ironic. It's almost as if you think CNN,BBC&Co are credible.

 

[Copernicus]

You don't know that waronfakes is a Russian state sponsored propaganda site

According to who? And even if it so, how does that change laws of physics?

It isn't the laws of physics that inform your opinion of how the war is going in Ukraine, just your desire to believe your government's narrative on the war, no matter how out of touch it gets with what is reported in countries whose news sources are not government controlled.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Anybody curious what "waronfakes.com" is?

Don't know. All I know is how 3 weeks old body should look like in warm weather.

Plus I know objects can't magically disappear and then appear few frames later.

You don't know that waronfakes is a Russian state sponsored propaganda site but you're willing to use it to further your bullshit narrative.

I've gotta be honest, your total indifference to credibility fascinates me.

The Russian government is just using misinformation to prove how the West uses misinformation.