How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[pood]

It’s funny how what Barbos styles to be “our people” are fighting tooth and nail to be no part of Russia and are kicking Russia’s ass at that.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Don't care about canadian generals anymore.

In other news, Tucker Carlson became very popular in Russia. Lots of his videos gets dubbed into russian.
He makes a lot of sense to me too. Weird right?
Democrats (Pelosi, Shiff and other idiots) are insane. They are seriously insane.
I am staring believe these senile cretins can actually start nuclear war with Russia.
They are so senile that they don't even see how the crap they were spewing in Kiev can be viewed in Russia. Maybe they do in fact so full of hatred becasue of this Russia-Trump thing that they are ready to destroy "intelligent" life on this planet.

Tucker Carlson is a nutcase. Just because he says what you like to hear doesn't change that. And the only one rattling the nuclear sabre is Pootin.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So from what I hear most of the damage being done is to eastern Ukraine.. The same region that had most of the pro-russian Ukrainians. Congrats pootie, you have devistated the lives of the ones that were most likely to support you. This leaving Ukraine much more anti-russia than when you started

You think Putin actually gave a crap about those people?

The point is that it will shift the political landscape.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Unfortunately, Russia will be able to keep the territory it can wrestle from Ukraine forever. So in Putin's calculations, it doesn't matter how much it costs or how long it takes to replace the tanks and ammunition used. After all, there is no real existential threat to Russia from NATO or anywhere else that they would need those weapons for.

Why do you assume Russia can hold the territory? While it's obvious Ukraine isn't going to invade Russia (beyond the sort of thing it's already doing, going after logistics targets in Russia) they have no reason to stop at the 2014 lines and I wouldn't be surprised if they also take Sevastopol.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Do you not realize there are a bunch of foreigners who have volunteered to go fight for Ukraine?

Oh, I do! There are plenty of idiots.
But do you realize that a retired general is not a simple dumbass yahoo who overdosed on CNN? Do you honestly think I am naive enough to think that these retired generals don't call to currently active NATO generals daily?

I was not born Yesterday. I am 99% sure that he was "volunteered" by the NATO.

That's not the way the west works. We can't just order someone to "retire" and go into combat for a foreign power.

While I wouldn't be at all surprised at him having contact with active-duty people that doesn't make him active-duty. It's no secret that we are providing not only weapons but information to Ukraine, there would be no reason not to talk to him. NATO planners would like to hear his evaluation of the situation.

 

[Elixir]

While I wouldn't be at all surprised at him having contact with active-duty people that doesn't make him active-duty. It's no secret that we are providing not only weapons but information to Ukraine, there would be no reason not to talk to him.

I suspect there's a significant qualitative difference in how a "retired" Russian general interacts with the Russian military. That suspicion is reinforced by how their active duty generals are sent to the front lines and put in harm's way, which would rarely if ever happen in the West.
I think that the position of western active duty generals is probably similar to that of retired Russian generals, who are relieved of having to live dangerously on the front lines, but whose input on strategic and tactical matters is of greater influence than that of their "active duty" colleagues.
This is the shirtcuff structure of an authoritarian regime, where the command structure is subservient to the whims of a dictator.

IMHO this has a lot to do why Russian might and money are functionally little more than a veneer that is easily revealed as such by scratches inflicted by a military a fraction of the size of theirs. That veneer covers up a "government" that is really just a bunch of individuals vying for personal power while trying to remain/appear non-threatening to the powers that be. The appearance of doing a "good" job (meaning how they believe Pootey would want it) is of ultimate importance to their personal well being, safety and future, while the actual efficacy of the military is not a primary concern for anyone other than Pootey.

I think their truly retired generals are usually described by a different adjective than "retired".
The word "dead" comes to mind.

 

[Gun Nut]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Speaking of counting dead russian generals.
NYT says US is helping to assassinate them by providing real time intelligence data to nazi forces.
I guess russian army needs to do something about it. Get away from WW2 style command and control structure where higher ranks are unnecessary close to the front line and such.
No cell phones for sure.

Your troops don't want to fight, that's why the generals are so close to the front lines. And they're using cell phones because your secure comms are shit, the phones are all they have. Thus you keep losing commanders and you're not going to be able to change that.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

Note that you have territorial disputes with several of your neighbors.

What happens if some of those neighbors decide to announce that they will "invade" but only to the extent of recovering the disputed territory.

Some of them you can't hope to defeat conventionally, especially with your army being wrecked in Ukraine. You're not going to go nuclear over an obviously self-limiting attack of that nature and you're certainly not going to go nuclear against the one that has it's own bombs.

 

[Copernicus]

Nope. Ukraine doesn't belong to Russia.

No, it's Russia which does not belong to Ukraine anymore.
"Independent" Ukraine illegally occupied parts of Russia which are now going back to Russia.

Now, strictly speaking even remaining Ukrainian Ukraine is legally on shaky grounds.
Becasue of the the way they conducted their exit from Soviet Union. But we can let it slide for now.

What an absurd thing to say. Russia exited from the Soviet Union, as did all of the other republics. Ukraine held a referendum in which a large majority favored exiting before it exited. Ukraine was an independent republic with borders established by the Soviet Union, and Russia actually agreed to respect those borders in return for Ukraine abandoning its nuclear arsenal in 1994. Then Russia reneged on that agreement, invaded, and annexed Ukrainian territory, much to the dismay of most of the world. So it is Russia that is on very shaky legal ground, but I understand why you would like to "let it slide for now".

 

[lpetrich]

S.3522 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

Lend-Lease? That was the sort of deal that the US made with Britain in the early years of WWII, giving military assistance to Britain before entering the war.

That bill passed the Senate by an unrecorded voice vote, then went to the House. The vote there:
Roll Call 141 | Bill Number: S. 3522
D: Y 221
R: Y 196, N 10, nv 3
ttl: Y 417, N 10, nv 3

Voting against the bill: Biggs R-AZ, Bishop R-NC, Davidson R-OH, Gaetz R-FL, Gosar R-AZ, Greene R-GA, Massie R-KY, Norman R-SC, Perry R-PA, Tiffany R-WI

Not voting: Allen R-GA, Nehls R-TX, Stewart R-UT

 

[lpetrich]

H.R.6930 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

This bill establishes a working group to determine the legal mechanisms that may be used to seize assets belonging to certain foreign persons (i.e., individuals and entities) affiliated with Russia's political leadership and addresses related issues.

The interagency working group must determine the constitutional mechanisms by which the President may take steps to seize and confiscate assets belonging to any sanctioned foreign person whose wealth is derived through support for or corruption related to the regime of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The working group must report to Congress on certain issues including (1) recommendations to impose additional energy-related sanctions on Russia's government, and (2) any additional authorities the President needs to take steps to seize and confiscate the assets.

The President must report to Congress a determination as to whether to expand existing sanctions related to certain Russian government activities to cover additional persons.

The vote on it:
Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives - Vote Details
D: Y 214, N 4, nv 2
R: Y 203, N 4, nv 2

The "no" voters:
Bush D-MO, Ocasio-Cortez D-NY, Omar D-MN, Tlaib D-MI
Cawthorn R-NC, Greene R-GA, Massie R-KY, Roy R-TX

The non-voters:
Kinzinger R-IL, Miller R-IL, Sewell D-AL, Sherman D-CA

It's passed the House and it's been sent to the Senate.

At first sight, this might be a horseshoe-theory vote. But AOC explained her vote as because it was short on due process, though she liked the goal of sanctioning oligarchs.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "@jamiedupree Oligarchs should pay, which is why Rep. AOC fought for unprecedented sanctions. But this vote told POTUS to violate the 4th Amd & seize private property - a risky precedent for future presidents, w/ so many in the U.S. already fighting civil asset forfeiture.
Full statement: (pic link)" / Twitter

Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go - all without due process. This sets a risky new precedent in the event of future Presidents who may seek to abuse that expansion of power, especially with so many of our communities already fighting civil asset forfeiture.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "'Civil asset forfeiture' is so unjust, many don’t realize its possible. ..." / Twitter

'Civil asset forfeiture' is so unjust, many don’t realize its possible.

Law enforcement can seize property, like a car or home, without charging a crime or going to court. They only need suspicion the property is related to a crime. They can then sell the property & keep the $

In the case of Ms. Harris, who spoke at a recent @OversightDems hearing, law enforcement took her car and didn't provide any explanation for 5 years.

They then gave her just 21 days to respond, and until she got pro bono help, she was ready to give up the car b/c of the fees.

Civil forfeiture disproportionately hurts low-income, people of color who don't have the resources to fight it.

It requires little evidence, and presumes guilty until proven innocent.

It is fundamentally unjust and it needs to end.

With some video of her in action in that hearing.

 

[Gospel]

The 5th Amendment died a long time ago. I visit its grave every morning when I wake up. RIP

 

[SLD]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

 

[Elixir]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

It would be a shame if someone took the west Siberia oilfields away from Pootey. I’m not sure that 75% of his incompetent military is sufficient for the job.

 

[Patooka]

Seeing as Barbos is parroting the bullshit claim that Ukraine is actually Russia because of history I'm sure he has no problems with Russia unconditionally giving the Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomai islet groups back to Japan.

 

[Elixir]

I’m pretty sure their Pacific ports used to be someone else’s …

 

[lpetrich]

Lawmakers on left, right explain ‘no’ votes on Russia-Ukraine bill | The Hill
Thomas Massie (R):

Massie told The Hill that “giving Joe Biden unilateral authority to seize property in the United States without any due process sets a dangerous and disturbing precedent.”

Rashida Tlaib (D):

Denzel McCampbell, a spokesperson for Tlaib’s office, told The Hill that while the congresswoman supports sanctioning Russian oligarchs in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and seizing assets acquired through corruption, “she does oppose allowing our government to unilaterally seize people’s assets with no legal process.”

McCampbell said the bill “provides essentially no evidentiary standards for asset seizure,” does not require the government to report details regarding evidence it says it has, does not include provisions that protect the due process rights for individuals and “contains zero measures to ensure transparency and accountability.”

“Due process is the foundation of our legal system. While seizing ill-gotten Russian oligarch assets is a righteous cause, we cannot create a precedent that would allow our government to ignore due process rights no matter the justification, because tomorrow the issue will be different but that precedent will remain,” McCampbell added.

Chip Roy (R):

Roy said he voted against the bill because it “effectively gives the president a blank check to fund poorly-defined ‘democracy and human rights programming and monitoring.’” He told The Hill that he does not think “Congress should support handing off more of its job to the executive branch and simply trust the Biden administration to follow due process.”

AOC (D): the bill violates the Fourth Amendment, because of its lack of due process.

She said the terms would set a “risky new precedent.”

“Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go – all without due process,” the spokesperson said.

Cori Bush (D): following what the ACLU said about an earlier version of this bill.

Ilhan Omar (D): because it was mostly symbolic: “absolutely not.”

“When you do something symbolic like this you have Ukrainians who are believing this is being done, and that there are resources that are going to come to them, and you can’t do that to people,” she added.

Madison Cawthorn and MTG: no comment.

govtrack.us 2020 ideology scores: AOC: 0.09, RT 0.08, IO 0.10, CB --, ... CM 0.52, CR 0.68, MC --, MTG --

 

[TV and credit cards]

Lawmakers on left, right explain ‘no’ votes on Russia-Ukraine bill | The Hill
Thomas Massie (R):

Massie told The Hill that “giving Joe Biden unilateral authority to seize property in the United States without any due process sets a dangerous and disturbing precedent.”

Rashida Tlaib (D):

Denzel McCampbell, a spokesperson for Tlaib’s office, told The Hill that while the congresswoman supports sanctioning Russian oligarchs in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and seizing assets acquired through corruption, “she does oppose allowing our government to unilaterally seize people’s assets with no legal process.”

McCampbell said the bill “provides essentially no evidentiary standards for asset seizure,” does not require the government to report details regarding evidence it says it has, does not include provisions that protect the due process rights for individuals and “contains zero measures to ensure transparency and accountability.”

“Due process is the foundation of our legal system. While seizing ill-gotten Russian oligarch assets is a righteous cause, we cannot create a precedent that would allow our government to ignore due process rights no matter the justification, because tomorrow the issue will be different but that precedent will remain,” McCampbell added.

Chip Roy (R):

Roy said he voted against the bill because it “effectively gives the president a blank check to fund poorly-defined ‘democracy and human rights programming and monitoring.’” He told The Hill that he does not think “Congress should support handing off more of its job to the executive branch and simply trust the Biden administration to follow due process.”

AOC (D): the bill violates the Fourth Amendment, because of its lack of due process.

She said the terms would set a “risky new precedent.”

“Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go – all without due process,” the spokesperson said.

Cori Bush (D): following what the ACLU said about an earlier version of this bill.

Ilhan Omar (D): because it was mostly symbolic: “absolutely not.”

“When you do something symbolic like this you have Ukrainians who are believing this is being done, and that there are resources that are going to come to them, and you can’t do that to people,” she added.

Madison Cawthorn and MTG: no comment.

govtrack.us 2020 ideology scores: AOC: 0.09, RT 0.08, IO 0.10, CB --, ... CM 0.52, CR 0.68, MC --, MTG --

10 (2) The President, by means of instructions, li-
11 censes, or other regulations as may be promulgated
12 and in a manner consistent with due process of law,
13 should confiscate any property or accounts subject to
14 the jurisdiction of the United States

My lay understanding is in conflict with the gentlewoman’s from New York.

 

[steve_bank]

I listened to reporting from Ukraine this morning.

Russian troops are pillaging, plundering, and raping. Above and beyond combat the Russian soldiers are trashing and stealing everything they can carry away. A farmer had his new harvester stolen and his wheat taken.

It is no less than genocide.

It is looking like the Russian march to Berlin in WWII. Maybe we are seeing Russian culture at play.