How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Nonsense. Most locals have fled, and not to Russia, but other parts of Ukraine or abroad

Nonsense is all yours. People in Eastern Ukraine fled to Russia when they could.
Nazi regime was trying to prevent Russia route, but they did.
People in Western Ukraine for obvious reason choose to leave to Poland/Europe.

According to UNHCR, only about 700,000 have gone to Russia since February. Which is understandable, because that's the only place to go from Russian occupied territory except in the very beginning of the conflict. Millions have moved to Europe, and many more are internally displaced, and that's not even counting the ones displaced between 2014-2021. And most of the refugees seem to be from the Eastern part of the country, because the West is fairly safe now and people are even coming back to Kyiv.

And the point was that if the "locals" supported the Russian occupation, they wouldn't leave at all. Not even to Russia.

Repeating a false claim doesn't make it true.

That's not a claim. That's undeniable conclusion. Kharkov city bombing was a nazi regime provocation, period.

Not based on any evidence. If it's an "undeniable conclusion", why are you refusing to address the arguments and just keep asserting so? Where is your evidence?

If the video was doctored to include a missile, why did the video editor miss one frame? (Answer: because it wasn't doctored.)

If it was a bomb on street level, how did it produce holes in the roof of the building? (Answer: because another missile hit the building 30 minutes later.)

Why did the "nazis" need to fake this, if Russia was striking the city elsewhere in dozens of other places as well? (Answer: because they didn't.)

You have no answers to these questions, because the "conclusion" that you're drawing is a stinking pile of bullshit.

Kramatorsk, Tochka-U, nazi regime war crime.

A Russian Tochka-U. Russia has been hitting Kramatorsk after that strike in multiple places. Why would that one hit be any different?

Donetsk , Tochka-U, nazi regime war crime.

Or just war.

Lughansk City Hall aerial attack in 2014, nazi regime war crime.

Or just war. Wouldn't have happened if Russia didn't occupy Donetsk.

Mariupol, multiple war crimes of using civilian population as shield.
simply rape and murder. Countless witnesses, tons of data for court.

Now you're talking about Russian war crimes.

 

[SLD]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The New Cold War Could Soon Heat Up&utm_content=20220505&utm_term=FA Today - 112017

Generally it is assumed that a long war of attrition is not in Putin’s interest. He promised a quick and relatively bloodless victory. It won’t happen. But a longer war from his perspective holds some advantages and it is all he may have left. He will try to divert blame to his advisers and rally the people for a longer war. If he can delay things long enough, he can hand it off to a successor. He could bide his time while trying hundreds of thousands of new conscripts and maybe rebuild his PGM and other forces. But that may depend on whether he can fund things, I.e. selling oil abroad, if not to Europe.

A longer war may also strain European economies and thus undermine support for Ukraine. It could also result in several regime changes in the West. Anger over high prices could put Trump back in the Whitehouse in 2025. He could then get a much better deal.

I suspect that he will at least pursue this approach to start. The Russians have done little in Eastern Ukraine since shifting their focus there. Whether that’s due to Ukrainian resistance or to his desire to avoid casualties is debatable. But I think the key in the west is to stop supporting him by buying oil and gas from him. It would cause a short term economic crisis, but if it stops this bloody war, it would create an enormous economic boom.

 

[Jayjay]

Speaking of counting dead russian generals.
NYT says US is helping to assassinate them by providing real time intelligence data to nazi forces.
I guess russian army needs to do something about it. Get away from WW2 style command and control structure where higher ranks are unnecessary close to the front line and such.
No cell phones for sure.

That might be a good idea. But I have a much simpler solution that would save Russian generals and their soldiers: stop invading Ukraine! Return home! It's not your country. Stop blowing up shit. No one wants Russian troops in their country anymore.

No, It's our country, it's our people.

That's what Hitler said about Austria and the Sudetenland. You're in good company.

 

[Harry Bosch]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The New Cold War Could Soon Heat Up&utm_content=20220505&utm_term=FA Today - 112017

Generally it is assumed that a long war of attrition is not in Putin’s interest. He promised a quick and relatively bloodless victory. It won’t happen. But a longer war from his perspective holds some advantages and it is all he may have left. He will try to divert blame to his advisers and rally the people for a longer war. If he can delay things long enough, he can hand it off to a successor. He could bide his time while trying hundreds of thousands of new conscripts and maybe rebuild his PGM and other forces. But that may depend on whether he can fund things, I.e. selling oil abroad, if not to Europe.

A longer war may also strain European economies and thus undermine support for Ukraine. It could also result in several regime changes in the West. Anger over high prices could put Trump back in the Whitehouse in 2025. He could then get a much better deal.

I suspect that he will at least pursue this approach to start. The Russians have done little in Eastern Ukraine since shifting their focus there. Whether that’s due to Ukrainian resistance or to his desire to avoid casualties is debatable. But I think the key in the west is to stop supporting him by buying oil and gas from him. It would cause a short term economic crisis, but if it stops this bloody war, it would create an enormous economic boom.

Totally agree with you. We need to get this stopped. Too many Ukrainians civilians are dying. If Putin doesn't start pulling back on May 9: the west must finalize boycotting Russian oil/gas; increase aid to Ukraine; put more pressure on China and India; fast track Finland and Sweden to join Nato (if they so desire); do everything we can to help Ukraine and put pressure on Russia to stop. This would put much of the world in a recession. But better to do it now, seek a better economy after the Russian war is over.

 

[Jayjay]

Warm weather in March? Stop bullshitting.

Dude, temperature was recorded and is known.

Yes, it is:

Weather Archive Bucha - meteoblue

meteoblue - weather close to you

www.meteoblue.com

Below 10 °C until the 21st of March, and even after that the daily average stayed below that. And it went below zero in the night almost until the end of March. It's a far cry from being "three weeks in 15 C" that you claimed.

What should a fully clothed dead body look like after two weeks in those conditions? I don't know, and I doubt that you do either. But the bodies in Bucha certainly don't look "fresh" to me.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Speaking of counting dead russian generals.
NYT says US is helping to assassinate them by providing real time intelligence data to nazi forces.
I guess russian army needs to do something about it. Get away from WW2 style command and control structure where higher ranks are unnecessary close to the front line and such.
No cell phones for sure.

That might be a good idea. But I have a much simpler solution that would save Russian generals and their soldiers: stop invading Ukraine! Return home! It's not your country. Stop blowing up shit. No one wants Russian troops in their country anymore.

No, It's our country, it's our people.

That's what Hitler said about Austria and the Sudetenland. You're in good company.

Our country, our people, ... our neo-nazis?

Really a shame they are killing their people... and destroying their country.

 

[Jayjay]

There has been substantial progress in cutting off Russian oil/gas in Europe. Germany is finally committing to cutting off Russia:

Germany ready to support EU ban on Russian oil – DW – 05/02/2022

The oil embargo could be upheld for years, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said. Her Green ally Robert Habeck said complete independence from Russian oil was possible by late summer.

www.dw.com

However, if we really want to stop Russian imperialism, we have to stop all economic transactions with Russia. We pat ourselves on the back for aiding Ukraine, but the west currently sends almost a billion dollars a day to Russia for its oil/gas. That has to stop. Then as the war continues, we have to find a way to stop China and India from supporting Russia. China wants it both ways. It wants to make money off the west and money off of Russia.

Of course, if the US supported India better, that side of the equation wouldn't be as difficult. India have a lot of people are not enough in the way of resources. China will do as China does. Right now, they aren't particularly happy with supporting Russia through this.

China benefits from Russia as a buffer, like a bigger version of North Korea. It will continue to deal with Russia on the cheap under the table, while avoiding to support it openly. In the end, China will bleed Russia dry of its natural resources.

I think it's ironic that Russia in its delusions of imperialist grandeur, might and up becoming China's vassal state.

 

[steve_bank]

Russia built the Berlin Wall and The Iron Curtain.

Maybe the long term solution is to build a wall on Russian bordersr amed to the teeth with wtachtowers.

The analysis is saying on the 9th Russia's patriotic day Putin will either declare war or declare victory.

 

[Jayjay]

Unfortunately, Russia will be able to keep the territory it can wrestle from Ukraine forever. So in Putin's calculations, it doesn't matter how much it costs or how long it takes to replace the tanks and ammunition used. After all, there is no real existential threat to Russia from NATO or anywhere else that they would need those weapons for.

Why do you assume Russia can hold the territory? While it's obvious Ukraine isn't going to invade Russia (beyond the sort of thing it's already doing, going after logistics targets in Russia) they have no reason to stop at the 2014 lines and I wouldn't be surprised if they also take Sevastopol.

Taking territory is much harder than holding it. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or the right kind of weapons. While Ukraine has sabotaged a few targets in Russia, the Russian supply lines in the East are still far more robust than Ukraine's. All that Russia needs to do to stop the flow of weapons to the front is a couple of bridges over Dnieper, which I think is just a matter of time.

 

[steve_bank]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

 

[Thomas II]

https://fortune.com/2022/05/06/un-warns-millions-tons-grain-stuck-ukraine-food-prices/

It’s an almost grotesque situation.’ Nearly 25 million tons of grain are stuck in Ukraine, and the UN says it doesn’t know when it can be accessed​

 

[Harry Bosch]

https://fortune.com/2022/05/06/un-warns-millions-tons-grain-stuck-ukraine-food-prices/

It’s an almost grotesque situation.’ Nearly 25 million tons of grain are stuck in Ukraine, and the UN says it doesn’t know when it can be accessed​

Yes, this is a huge issue. I laugh when I hear people like Jason telling people that the war in Ukraine is none of our business. It has no effect on me! Bullshit. It affects everyone. The world needs to unite more to find a way to stop Russian imperialism.

 

[steve_bank]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

The French at Diem Bien Phu. The Vietnamese carried artillery piece by piece on their backs up steep slopes to get high ground.

The Tet Offensive in our VN war. We had overwhelming military superiority yet in the long run did not prevail. Paraphrasing General Giap we have fought for centuries to expel foreigners and we will endure as long as it takes. They were willing to die for their cause.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

The French at Diem Bien Phu. The Vietnamese carried artillery piece by piece on their backs up steep slopes to get high ground.

The Tet Offensive in our VN war. We had overwhelming military superiority yet in the long run did not prevail. Paraphrasing General Giap we have fought for centuries to expel foreigners and we will endure as long as it takes. They were willing to die for their cause.

Yep, totally agree. The problem with imperialists is that their troops generally lose the desire to fight over time. We've seen this from day one from the Russians. The Russians can just return home. I don't think that all of them want to fight to death just so that their leaders can add notches to their belts.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians have no choice. They are fighting in their land. Many of them are willing to fight and die.

 

[steve_bank]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

 

[ZiprHead]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

I heard on a radio show that Russian troops are taught to be brutal, that savagery intimidates the enemy.

 

[Elixir]

savagery intimidates the enemy.

Turns out, it also pisses them off.

 

[Harry Bosch]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

I heard on a radio show that Russian troops are taught to be brutal, that savagery intimidates the enemy.

I wouldn't be surprised. All armies, including the US military, commit a certain number of atrocities against civilians. It does seem to be in higher proportion in the Russian army. And we're not hearing the Russian government doing anything about it. So obviously, they don't give a damn. But I also think that the Wagner-Nazi group is going in after the Russian soldiers have conquered an area; then they commit more crimes against the civilians. Either way, Russia is responsible of course.

 

[Harry Bosch]

savagery intimidates the enemy.

Turns out, it also pisses them off.

I will defend the Russian soldiers a tiny tiny bit! They are committing crimes in Ukraine and should be held accountable. Hopefully the world won't forget. However, think about how horrible it would be to be a common Russian soldier! Their wages are absolute shit (paid far less than American soldiers). No benefits. Terrible training. They are lied to by their superiors (Ukraine is only an exercise!). Their superiors give them no support. Old out of date food. Allegedly, the hazing committed by their superiors is horrendous. Then to top it off, the Wagnernazis are allegedly shooting Russian soldiers in the back when they lack certain enthusiasm for fighting!