What the history of Russia’s power struggles says about Putin’s future.
www.foreignaffairs.com
A good history of previous Kremlin Coups. But I wonder if a 1991 scenario is more likely. What if these demonstrations get further and further out of hand. What if the security forces find themselves overrun - even for just one case in an important city. It could snowball quickly. Putin has to be very aggressive in cracking these down but can he do it if they turn really large? If they get out of hand, all bets are off. At some point the security forces stop doing their job. They may not be enthusiastic supporters of this war either. They may have to go to Ukraine as well. At some point Putin is told he has to go. Maybe he’s given a dacha and immunity to soften the blow. Personally I hope he’s arrested or even worse.
That's the thing though... With this mobilization he could potentially end up depleting domestic security forces, and even they would likely look at this mobilization with worry.
I think Putin has read about the previous Russian revolutions, and is making sure that he doesn't send the domestic security forces to Ukraine. This ensures that A) any demonstrations or opposition will be efficiently nipped in the bud, and B) the police will stay loyal because they know that they're safe as long as the follow orders.
Despite analyses that say Russia doesn't have enough equipment or can't train 300k (or later up to a million) soldiers is being too optimistic in my opinion. How hard is it for a country the size of Russia to produce helmets and body armor, given that they've probably ramped up production months ago and are continuing to do so? Not every piece of equipment needs western parts.
This mobilization is going to be bad for Ukraine, that was already struggling. It won't show immediately, but the difficulty is going to ramp up in the weeks and months ahead. The Kharkiv frontline seems to have mostly stabilized by now, with Ukraine making only marginal gains, but Russian forces seem to be very close to getting Bakhmut. Kherson is question mark. Ukraine currently has not been able to do much more than pin Russians in place by disrupting their logistics, and even if Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia to the other side of the river, then what? Russia will just bomb the city to the ground. And maybe blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam.
My biggest worry is what he's planning to do with the protestors.
Where will he send them to fight?
What city will he bomb to the ground?
If enough people ever protested to make bombing entire (Russian) cities to the ground, then Putin would've already lost. But as it stands, there haven't been that many. About 500 arrested in St. Petersburg, and another 500 in Moscow. Smaller numbers elsewhere. So let's say 1500 arrests. It's peanuts in a country of 140 million people.
As for where to send the people... just a wild guess, but maybe Ukraine?
If you're implying that people inclined to protest aren't likely to be reliable soldiers, that's irrelevant. It's about the
fear of being sent to the front that's the key. If you haven't been drafted, then you'll likely keep your head down and not protest so the situation stays that way. That limits the protestors to those who aren't eligible to be drafted (women mostly), and those who've been summoned but haven't been able to escape or been taken yet. And frankly, if I was in that group, I'd spend my effort on the escape plan.
I expect this is three birds with one stone. He plans to nuke his own people while using them as bait to a counteroffensive, tactically targeting the assembled material, while both warning protests off, and generating "martyrs". He just has to lie to Russia about who set off the nuke.
The world would balk at nuclear response to a city containing only (or even just mostly) "soldiers".
Ukraine better not be planning on putting all it's eggs in a basket, and not expect the presence of Russians to be a deterrent to the use of nuclear arms.
He just conscripted a bunch of soldiers he WANTS to die.
Wait what? So you think he will draft soldiers, then put them in a city with protests, nuke the city, blame the west, and ... profit somehow? What the hell have you been smoking?
