How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Adolf Hitler believed that Leningrad and Stalingrad were the two “holy cities of Communism”, and that taking them would make the Soviet Union fall - A TURN OF THE TIDE - WAR: EARLY VICTORIES AND THE TURNING POINT - The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany - William L. Shirer

 

[steve_bank]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

It is a rookie mistake for heads of government to assume a role in military strategy and tactics. Lincoln learned this in the first few days of the Civil War, when he ordered a disastrous naval operation. He had the good sense not to repeat that blunder. LBJ used to meet regularly to pick bombing targets in North Vietnam and otherwise meddle in military operations. Hitler's blunder with Stalingrad is legendary, creating the actual turning point in WWII. Basically, he derailed the entire German strategy by diverting to a city that was militarily unimportant but had Stalin's name on it. Putin is now actually giving direct orders to combat units. What an idiot, but it explains a lot about Russia's incompetent performance in this stupidly unnecessary invasion.

Stalin started out with a top down approach, but learned to delegate to his military staff.

Eisenhower and MacArthur had a wide latitude in action.

Guderian in Russia who was he German tank strategist begged Hitler to give him latitude to take advantage of targets of opportunity. He was sacked once or twice. From what I read there were a few points where the Germans could have prevailed.

 

[lpetrich]

(snipped content for another thread)

I'm seeing stuff like this:
WarMonitor on Twitter: "There is unconfirmed reports that Russian forces are withdrawing their more highly trained units from Lyman and leaving conscripts and poorly trained regular infantry in the settlement." / Twitter

+ Tomáš ☥ (Russia is genocidal) on Twitter: "@WarMonitor3 This seems to be a pattern. I already read a few times how captured POWs claimed that right before they were overrun by AFU the elite troops abandoned them few days before." / Twitter

NOËL on Twitter: "@Gryphicus Drobysheve/Novoselivka fighting ongoing. Russians took back some ground in Drobysheve and free'd some encircled units. Novoselivka village itself is completely demolished. Russians hiding in some remaining buildings.
Ukraine advancing north. Russians can't stop them." / Twitter

NOËL on Twitter: "#Lyman situation: New map style, hope you like it!
controls Karpivka, Ribdokub, Nove. Advancing NO to Huschenkove-Pisky-Rad area.
small gains. 50% of Drobysheve and Novoselivka.
AFU trying to encircle Lyman. Lyman itself is a standoff untill encirclement is complete. (pic link)" / Twitter

From the map, Ukraine has done another punch-through, like the recent one to Kupyansk. A punch-through to the likes of Karpivka, Ridkodub (d not b), and Nove.

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces downed another Russian jet, reportedly Su-30, in the vicinity of Ridkodub, #Donetsk Oblast today. #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

 

[Elixir]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

It is a rookie mistake for heads of government to assume a role in military strategy and tactics. Lincoln learned this in the first few days of the Civil War, when he ordered a disastrous naval operation. He had the good sense not to repeat that blunder. LBJ used to meet regularly to pick bombing targets in North Vietnam and otherwise meddle in military operations. Hitler's blunder with Stalingrad is legendary, creating the actual turning point in WWII. Basically, he derailed the entire German strategy by diverting to a city that was militarily unimportant but had Stalin's name on it. Putin is now actually giving direct orders to combat units. What an idiot, but it explains a lot about Russia's incompetent performance in this stupidly unnecessary invasion.

The only thing that will make the war worth anything to anyone other than arms mfrs is if Ukraine gets their 2013 borders back (incl Crimea). That’s the only just outcome.

 

[lpetrich]

Russia begins illegal referendum to annex occupied parts of Ukraine : NPR

Controversial Russian referendums have begun in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — some of which are only partially controlled by Russia. The voting is illegal under both Ukrainian and international law and is largely seen as a sham, as it's almost certain to result in Moscow's favor. But still, it could pave the way for the Kremlin to annex the areas, bringing them in to join the Russian Federation.

It could also begin a dramatic escalation in the seven-month war, as Russia could use the referendums to illegitimately claim that any attempt by Ukrainian forces to retake land is an attack on Russia itself. The voting is set to run for five days, until Sept. 27.

"It's all staged, and it's all fake," Yermoleny said of the voting, as her husband nodded beside her. She said that their neighbors who stayed behind had plans to hide if Russian soldiers came to their home to get them to vote.

"But that's not going to help anyway," she said. "The Russians are just going to write the numbers that they need and be done with it."

Russian news outlets confirmed that door-to-door voting is how most of the referendums would be held. The Kremlin announced the vote so quickly that there was no time to put together key voting infrastructure, according to the Russian news site TASS. Rather than electronic voting, authorities will hand out paper ballots to residents at home.

Let's see if anyone votes against this annexation.

 

[lpetrich]

Russia-Ukraine war: at least 730 protesters detained in Russia; Europe urged to accept Russians fleeing draft – live | Ukraine | The Guardian - "Arrests made in 32 cities at rallies against mobilisation; border crossings from Russia to Finland have doubled and 10km queue reported at frontier with Georgia"

‘Referendums’ on joining Russia under way in occupied Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian - "Polls asking residents to vote for independence and join Russia condemned in west as illegitimate"

 

[Jayjay]

Ya, the Ukrainians really don't need to do MUCH in Kherson. Just keep blasting the supply lines and keep up the pressure and the problem solves itself over time. Winter is coming and they can starve the army out. While doing that, it ties down tens of thousands of Russia's best troops and equipment and keeps it away from the western offensive.

It is a rookie mistake for heads of government to assume a role in military strategy and tactics. Lincoln learned this in the first few days of the Civil War, when he ordered a disastrous naval operation. He had the good sense not to repeat that blunder. LBJ used to meet regularly to pick bombing targets in North Vietnam and otherwise meddle in military operations. Hitler's blunder with Stalingrad is legendary, creating the actual turning point in WWII. Basically, he derailed the entire German strategy by diverting to a city that was militarily unimportant but had Stalin's name on it. Putin is now actually giving direct orders to combat units. What an idiot, but it explains a lot about Russia's incompetent performance in this stupidly unnecessary invasion.

The only thing that will make the war worth anything to anyone other than arms mfrs is if Ukraine gets their 2013 borders back (incl Crimea). That’s the only just outcome.

I doubt justice will prevail in the real world. But there's a spectrum of possible outcomes. I think the expenditure is worth it, if Ukraine gets to keep its independence. Permanently, not just for the interim before Russia regroups and starts another war.

The more land Ukraine can hold on to in that process, the better. But militarily it can't win, just survive. Only way Ukraine can win if Russia implodes from within, but that doesn't seem likely.

 

[Elixir]

I think the expenditure is worth it, if Ukraine gets to keep its independence. Permanently, not just for the interim before Russia regroups and starts another war.

Agreed. I don’t think Russia, whether it’s Putler or his successor, will be dissuaded from another try unless it loses Crimea this time.

 

[Jayjay]

I think the expenditure is worth it, if Ukraine gets to keep its independence. Permanently, not just for the interim before Russia regroups and starts another war.

Agreed. I don’t think Russia, whether it’s Putler or his successor, will be dissuaded from another try unless it loses Crimea this time.

Well I disagree on that point. If the borders of the eventual peace are sufficiently defensible, and if Ukraine is not neutered i.e. "made neutral" with demands that limit its cooperation with the west or the size of its military, and if the cost to Russia is such that it's a pyrrhic victory and cripples Russian military for a long time, then it might be enough.

It wouldn't be ideal, but it can always be worse. If the west does not arm Ukraine, then the entire country will be gobbled up and Russia will start threatening Moldova, Lithuania, and whatever other countries Putin thinks should be part of the Russian empire next.

EDIT: To balance out my pessimism regarding the eventual outcome of the war, here's a video of the elite Russian forces that Ukraine is up against.



"Don't embarrass the Russian army!"

 

[ZiprHead]

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

The pucker factor must be strong in Vladputin. He no doubt mobilized at the behest and threats from the far right and now he's telling them how to fight their battles. The problem is that Russians never fought any other way. They build rocket launchers that need to fire hundreds of rounds to take out a target while the west uses one precision missile to do the same thing. No different with soldiers.

Someone suggested somewhere that when they run out of trucks and other vehicles they can start riding horses again.

 

[Jayjay]

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

The pucker factor must be strong in Vladputin. He no doubt mobilized at the behest and threats from the far right ...

Nope. I know it's not your intent, but that depicts Putin as some sort of regular politicians, who's just appealing to his base despite better intentions. But he's the one with the delusions of grandeur and imperialist ambitions, not the "far right". It's Putin who could at any time stop the war, or limit his ambitions to more manageable level, such as withdrawing from Kherson and just holding on to the rest. But he doesn't. It's obviously Putin who's using the "far right" as means to keep up nationalistic fervor that justifies his policies, not the other way around.

If Putin wanted, he could shut Igor Girkin any time, if not by asking nicely, then by defenestration. But he chooses to keep Girkin and his ilk around.

and now he's telling them how to fight their battles. The problem is that Russians never fought any other way. They build rocket launchers that need to fire hundreds of rounds to take out a target while the west uses one precision missile to do the same thing. No different with soldiers.

Someone suggested somewhere that when they run out of trucks and other vehicles they can start riding horses again.

Where would they get the horses? That's even harder these days than trucks.

What you mentioned about western weapons being more about precision is absolutely true. It's a combination of both the desire to avoid civilian casualties, because for democracies that's usually what ends foreign wars by way of public opinion, and also the fact that during the cold war the idea was that America would have to supply Europe over the ocean by air, which means maximizing effectiveness of weapons and ammo. If your shells are twice as accurate, it means you need only half as much ammo, half the artillery pieces, and half the trucks and planes to ship them with.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Nope. I know it's not your intent, but that depicts Putin as some sort of regular politicians, who's just appealing to his base despite better intentions. But he's the one with the delusions of grandeur and imperialist ambitions, not the "far right". It's Putin who could at any time stop the war, or limit his ambitions to more manageable level, such as withdrawing from Kherson and just holding on to the rest. But he doesn't. It's obviously Putin who's using the "far right" as means to keep up nationalistic fervor that justifies his policies, not the other way around.

If Putin wanted, he could shut Igor Girkin any time, if not by asking nicely, then by defenestration. But he chooses to keep Girkin and his ilk around.

You may be right but I don't give Pewt that much credit. Yes, he could stop the war but he certainly doesn't have absolute power. If he had absolute power his military wouldn't be shitting itself on the battlefield. And if he withdrew today he'd be gone tomorrow. That would be a good thing for everyone except Pewt and the hardline right wingers. It might even make things worse and less stable in the land of the Ruskis.

The larger problem is that there is just no courage left in Russia. It's as if everyone is happily enslaved which is testament to generations of living under the iron thumb of Czars and Dictators where if you were perceived as being strong you were eliminated. Maybe if the population was armed it would be different.

 

[Hermit]

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

Oh. Another GröFaZ. That's quite alright. As Napoleon said: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

 

[Jarhyn]

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

Oh. Another GröFaZ. That's quite alright. As Napoleon said: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

I can't help but think Napoleon ought to have heeded their own advice.

Best heed when you yourself are the one making the mistake and interrupting yourself.

Note, you nor ZiprHead are making a mistake here. Putin is.

Unless they are planning on sending all the protestors to Kherson or a position behind that line and then using it as a trap with live bait.

That would also be a mistake, but a very different kind: it would be a war crime.

 

[steve_bank]

Polish venue cancels Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters' shows after controversial Ukraine letter | CNN

Brirtish rock legend and Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters' planned concerts in Poland in April have been cancelled amid a backlash to the musician's stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.cnn.com

CNN)Brirtish rock legend and Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters' planned concerts in Poland in April have been canceled amid a backlash to the musician's stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Live Nation Poland, the concert's promoter, confirmed the cancellation Saturday but did not specify a reason.

The cancellation comes after Waters, 79, published a controversial open letter on his website in early September to Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska. In the letter, Waters wrote that he opposed the West sending weapons to Ukraine to aid the embattled country in its war against invading Russia.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What you mentioned about western weapons being more about precision is absolutely true. It's a combination of both the desire to avoid civilian casualties, because for democracies that's usually what ends foreign wars by way of public opinion, and also the fact that during the cold war the idea was that America would have to supply Europe over the ocean by air, which means maximizing effectiveness of weapons and ammo. If your shells are twice as accurate, it means you need only half as much ammo, half the artillery pieces, and half the trucks and planes to ship them with.

There's also the issue of local logistics, not just a matter of crossing the ocean. Look at what is happening in Ukraine--Russia's firepower has dropped considerably because they can't move enough to the front. The fewer rounds you need the fewer of your troops will be tied up in logistics and the fewer logistics targets your enemy will be able to target.

There is also the issue that almost all weapons leave a big signature when fired and thus expose the shooter to return fire. The fewer weapons you need to fire the less the threat this poses and the better you can employ shoot-and-scoot tactics. Consider the Javelin--the standard tactic for armor use has been that infantry is out in front screening the armor from anything man portable and the armor deals with anything heavy that poses a threat to the infantry. Now, however, the Javelin comes in from a range beyond which the infantry can screen and beyond the range of the anti-infantry weapons armor carries. The only possible return fire is from the main guns or artillery. Tank guns aren't very effective against lone soldiers at long range and artillery takes time.

 

[lpetrich]

Real Libyan on Twitter: "#Russia #Ukraine The AFU took control of #Ridkodub, #Karpivka, #Novo after a successful attack from #Lozove. Russian force counterattacked and recaptured Karpivka and Novo.
Heavy clashes continue in the Ridkodub. (pic link)" / Twitter

@Suriyak on Twitter: "N.E. Front: Yesterday #UkrainianArmy managed to recapture the towns of Ridkodub, Hlushchenkove, Novomykhailivka, Nove & parts of Karpivka. Hours later #RussianArmy & #DPR reinforcements managed to recapture the last four. Some kilometers south heavy clashes continue at Drobysheve (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Attack of enemy drones on Odessa | odessa-journal.com

On September 23, the enemy attacked Odessa with kamikaze drones from the Black Sea. Two drones destroyed the administrative building in the port area, killing a civilian. Another Iranian kamikaze drone Shahed 136 (Shahid-136) was shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is known about four damaged houses.

Odessa again attacked by enemy drones | odessa-journal.com

Ukraine’s Odessa again attacked by Iranian drones

NEXTA on Twitter: "On Sunday morning, #Odesa was again attacked by kamikaze drones. The drones hit an administrative building in the city center three times.
One of the four drones was shot down by air defense. (vid link)" / Twitter

UkraineIRAN DRONES ATTACK ODESADay 214 on Twitter: "Full video of Today's drone attack on Odesa centre Massive deafening anti aircraft fire and explosions..watch.Ukraine. (vid link)" / Twitter

Euan MacDonald on Twitter: "Video of more Iranian kamikaze drones (Flying F*cking Balalaikas) loitering over Odesa this morning. Three hits on admin building in center, one drone shot down. Ukraine has for seven months been begging its allies to supply it with adequate numbers of modern air defense systems. (vid link)" / Twitter

Israeli company reportedly supplying Ukraine anti-UAV systems

Just about the time Iranian drones supplied to Russia began appearing in the skies over Ukraine last week, press reports surfaced purporting a company in Israel is moving to step around the nation’s formal refusal to take sides in the conflict by ushering anti-UAV defense systems to Kyiv using Poland as an intermediary.

In effect, laundering those systems, like money laundering.

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

Attack of enemy drones on Odessa | odessa-journal.com

On September 23, the enemy attacked Odessa with kamikaze drones from the Black Sea. Two drones destroyed the administrative building in the port area, killing a civilian. Another Iranian kamikaze drone Shahed 136 (Shahid-136) was shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is known about four damaged houses.

Odessa again attacked by enemy drones | odessa-journal.com

Ukraine’s Odessa again attacked by Iranian drones

NEXTA on Twitter: "On Sunday morning, #Odesa was again attacked by kamikaze drones. The drones hit an administrative building in the city center three times.
One of the four drones was shot down by air defense. (vid link)" / Twitter

UkraineIRAN DRONES ATTACK ODESADay 214 on Twitter: "Full video of Today's drone attack on Odesa centre Massive deafening anti aircraft fire and explosions..watch.Ukraine. (vid link)" / Twitter

Euan MacDonald on Twitter: "Video of more Iranian kamikaze drones (Flying F*cking Balalaikas) loitering over Odesa this morning. Three hits on admin building in center, one drone shot down. Ukraine has for seven months been begging its allies to supply it with adequate numbers of modern air defense systems. (vid link)" / Twitter

Israeli company reportedly supplying Ukraine anti-UAV systems

Just about the time Iranian drones supplied to Russia began appearing in the skies over Ukraine last week, press reports surfaced purporting a company in Israel is moving to step around the nation’s formal refusal to take sides in the conflict by ushering anti-UAV defense systems to Kyiv using Poland as an intermediary.

In effect, laundering those systems, like money laundering.

Zelensky has been begging those Israeli fucks since March for Iron Dome.