How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

I can't really see all of the detail that others are seeing from those videos. For example, it looks to me like a lot of water was kicked up, and I see something of a shower of water in the video at one point. However, I have no strong feeling about where the bomb was. I'm pretty sure that the Russian government knows, but they never give out reliable information, only what they think will fit with some narrative that they want to promote.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This conversation reminds me of the 911 truther conversations. Bridges (and skyscrapers and tunnels) are the most advanced constructions our civilization has produced, with engineering to match. I'd love to hear a building engineer speculate on this. I'm a civil engineer, and I'm not going to try to speculate.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

 

[Gospel]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

Nah. Have you not learned anything from Nazi Germany? They are threatened into going along with the program or face the consequences (like those people in jail you mentioned or death). Not everyone can just pack up and leave. I know if the USA went to shit I wouldn't be able to just hop on a flight so I'd have to stay here in Florida along with all the crazies and make due somehow.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

Nah. Have you not learned anything from Nazi Germany? They are threatened into going along with the program or face the consequences (like those people in jail you mentioned or death). Not everyone can just pack up and leave. I know if the USA went to shit I wouldn't be able to just hop on a flight so I'd have to stay here in Florida along with all the crazies and make due somehow.

That's not what I'm hearing. I don't remember hearing of any Germans in Nazi Germany that criticized Hitler for not being brutal enough! But that's what we are seeing in Russia today. Putler's biggest threat today comes from his own citizens who think that he isn't killing enough Ukrainians. Just read their blogs.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The below is actually the biggest news of the week regarding Russia. Putler's attempt to blackmail Europe into supporting his crusade against Ukraine by freezing them appears that it will fail. According to the below, Europe dependence on Russian gas is down from 46% to only 9% today.

MSN

From the article "Europe is actually fully capable of replacing Russian supply "without any need for demand destruction or even substitution away from gas." Europe is already purchasing enough gas and liquefied natural gas from alternative sources to make up for the loss of Russian flows." It must chap Putler's hide that Russia is losing out so much profit from Europe, while enriching so many westerners who provide a more stable form of energy to Europe.

 

[Swammerdami]

A week or so before the bridge explosion I watched a YouTube titled "Ten Reasons Why Ukraine Hasn't Destroyed the Crimean Bridge."

Here are the ten reasons

• Military Difficulty
• If bridge destroyed, the threat of destruction is no longer available as leverage. Russia no longer is incentivized to settle.
• Tit for tat retaliation
• Since Russia has no easy alternative to bridge, NATO intelligence can easily track comings and goings while bridge intact.
• Escape route - An optimistic outcome for Ukraine is Russian retreat from Crimea. That Russian option disappears without bridge.
• Population sorting -- pro-Russia Crimeans are less likely to migrate to Russia if bridge gone.
• Civilian casualties
• Maintaining moderates - Destroying bridge will inconvenience or anger pro-Ukraine Crimeans
• Bridge valuable if Ukraine re-takes Crimea
• Negotiated settlement -- With bridge gone, Russia wants a land-bridge, so will want a border farther north.

 

[Gospel]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

Nah. Have you not learned anything from Nazi Germany? They are threatened into going along with the program or face the consequences (like those people in jail you mentioned or death). Not everyone can just pack up and leave. I know if the USA went to shit I wouldn't be able to just hop on a flight so I'd have to stay here in Florida along with all the crazies and make due somehow.

That's not what I'm hearing. I don't remember hearing of any Germans in Nazi Germany that criticized Hitler for not being brutal enough! But that's what we are seeing in Russia today. Putler's biggest threat today comes from his own citizens who think that he isn't killing enough Ukrainians. Just read their blogs.

Blah, until we shove a microphone in 72 million Russian faces all saying the same thing I don't believe it.

 

[bilby]

The below is actually the biggest news of the week regarding Russia. Putler's attempt to blackmail Europe into supporting his crusade against Ukraine by freezing them appears that it will fail. According to the below, Europe dependence on Russian gas is down from 46% to only 9% today.

MSN

From the article "Europe is actually fully capable of replacing Russian supply "without any need for demand destruction or even substitution away from gas." Europe is already purchasing enough gas and liquefied natural gas from alternative sources to make up for the loss of Russian flows." It must chap Putler's hide that Russia is losing out so much profit from Europe, while enriching so many westerners who provide a more stable form of energy to Europe.

We can all do something to help in this push for Germany to become less dependent upon Russian gas.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

Nah. Have you not learned anything from Nazi Germany? They are threatened into going along with the program or face the consequences (like those people in jail you mentioned or death). Not everyone can just pack up and leave. I know if the USA went to shit I wouldn't be able to just hop on a flight so I'd have to stay here in Florida along with all the crazies and make due somehow.

That's not what I'm hearing. I don't remember hearing of any Germans in Nazi Germany that criticized Hitler for not being brutal enough! But that's what we are seeing in Russia today. Putler's biggest threat today comes from his own citizens who think that he isn't killing enough Ukrainians. Just read their blogs.

Blah, until we shove a microphone in 72 million Russian faces all saying the same thing I don't believe it.

Well, maybe I'm just more cycnical than you. I listen to a lot of nonsense coming from Qtrumpers. I hope that you are right and that I'm wrong. But I advocate that the west plan for the worst (continuous war) rather than lapse and hope for peace.

 

[Gospel]

I like how Putin gets upset when a bridge is attacked, (a legitimate military target) calls the attackers terrorists (blowing up a bridge during war is NOT an act of terrorism) and responds by shooting a bunch of rockets into civilian areas, which is an act of terrorism. Putin is completely shameless. This guy has to go.

And if those launches are originating in Russia they are legitimate targets and the Ukrainians ought to target them.

I think that's a terrible idea. The last thing we want is NATO attacks (yes, the Ukrainian army is at this point a front for NATO) inside (what the average Russian perceives as) attacks on Russia. We want Russians to keep thinking Putin is the bad guy. We don't want Putin to be able to rally his people in defense of the motherland. It doesn't matter how dirty Putin fights. Ukraine has got to keep it clean.

The moment Russian public opinion swings to support for the war, then Ukraine will truly be fucked. And most of Europe = WW3

Russian public opinion has been in support of the war from day one. And it hasn't much changed even when Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea, Belogorod or Kursk. I'm more concerned about the public opinion of Ukraine's supporters in the west.

Agreed. Most of the Russians who want peace and trade with the west are either in jail or have fled the country. It appears to me that the remaining are very pro-war.

Nah. Have you not learned anything from Nazi Germany? They are threatened into going along with the program or face the consequences (like those people in jail you mentioned or death). Not everyone can just pack up and leave. I know if the USA went to shit I wouldn't be able to just hop on a flight so I'd have to stay here in Florida along with all the crazies and make due somehow.

That's not what I'm hearing. I don't remember hearing of any Germans in Nazi Germany that criticized Hitler for not being brutal enough! But that's what we are seeing in Russia today. Putler's biggest threat today comes from his own citizens who think that he isn't killing enough Ukrainians. Just read their blogs.

Blah, until we shove a microphone in 72 million Russian faces all saying the same thing I don't believe it.

Well, maybe I'm just more cycnical than you. I listen to a lot of nonsense coming from Qtrumpers. I hope that you are right and that I'm wrong. But I advocate that the west plan for the worst (continuous war) rather than lapse and hope for peace.

Ain't nobody lapsing and hoping. What I am doing (and I can't speak for the whole west) is recognizing that many Russians are fleeing the country. There is also news of protests and arrests over the draft just like there is news of pro-war Russians. How wide spread any of those positions are in relation to the 140 something million Russians is not something I know and I don't think there are any polls out.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The below is actually the biggest news of the week regarding Russia. Putler's attempt to blackmail Europe into supporting his crusade against Ukraine by freezing them appears that it will fail. According to the below, Europe dependence on Russian gas is down from 46% to only 9% today.

MSN

From the article "Europe is actually fully capable of replacing Russian supply "without any need for demand destruction or even substitution away from gas." Europe is already purchasing enough gas and liquefied natural gas from alternative sources to make up for the loss of Russian flows." It must chap Putler's hide that Russia is losing out so much profit from Europe, while enriching so many westerners who provide a more stable form of energy to Europe.

Pipeline projects, railroad projects to ship more coal are all on hold. No money. The future ain't bright. No need for them shades. I just read this morning, Algeria will be upping it's shipment of gas to Europe. Infrastructure issues aside, supply and demand remains the same. This winter and particularly next could be tough for Europe if, if there isn't a recession and demand drops.

Most hopeful news I've read lately is things are looking so bleak for Russia militarily and economically that the *Duma might soon offer Putin a retirement package similar to his predecessors, that is, he gets to keep his head and live out the remainder of his days in relative comfort. If it were a one time offer, he might want to jump on it. Lord knows he hasn't made any good decisions lately.

*If that's their job.

 

[Copernicus]

For those who think they know what Russian public opinion is, I offer this interesting article from the Moscow Times:

Startup Pollsters Challenge Accepted Wisdom on Russians’ War Support​

Of course, The Moscow Times is an anti-government news outlet that has been banned in Russia, so you can take their bias FWIW. However, no source is more biased than the Russian government itself. My point is that there is no effective means for measuring public opinion, so you sometimes have to look for alternative points of view. The easiest thing is to read a lot of news articles and then come away with some superficial impression based on the few sources your have been exposed to. Russia is a huge, complex country, and there is much more variety and diversity there than most outsiders are aware of. So these alternative pollsters have some interesting methods to apply to the problem, but they are necessarily limited in their sources of information. The most common estimate for Russian public opinion is that about 70% of the public is pro-war. These alternative pollsters claim that a more realistic estimate would be around 40% or even lower. The truth is probably in between those figures.

 

[Copernicus]

As Russia struggles with its battlefield losses, Putin seeks to involve Belarus to pull more Ukrainian forces away from the eastern and southern fronts. However, Lukashenko appears less than willing to contribute more soldiers to a losing war, especially given how weak and demoralized his military is.

See:

Belarus army would likely have little impact in Ukraine war​

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

For those who think they know what Russian public opinion is, I offer this interesting article from the Moscow Times:

Startup Pollsters Challenge Accepted Wisdom on Russians’ War Support​

Of course, The Moscow Times is an anti-government news outlet that has been banned in Russia, so you can take their bias FWIW. However, no source is more biased than the Russian government itself. My point is that there is no effective means for measuring public opinion, so you sometimes have to look for alternative points of view. The easiest thing is to read a lot of news articles and then come away with some superficial impression based on the few sources your have been exposed to. Russia is a huge, complex country, and there is much more variety and diversity there than most outsiders are aware of. So these alternative pollsters have some interesting methods to apply to the problem, but they are necessarily limited in their sources of information. The most common estimate for Russian public opinion is that about 70% of the public is pro-war. These alternative pollsters claim that a more realistic estimate would be around 40% or even lower. The truth is probably in between those figures.

Yes. That's exactly it. Also consider the fact that lots of Russians don't get outside information. If it were a free society with all the freedoms we enjoy in the west I'm absolutely certain that support for the Ukraine invasion would be about 30%. That correlates with Trumpism in the U.S. There is no doubt a wedge of right wing nationalism in Putinstan but anything more is clearly coerced.

 

[Jayjay]

Most hopeful news I've read lately is things are looking so bleak for Russia militarily and economically that the *Duma might soon offer Putin a retirement package similar to his predecessors, that is, he gets to keep his head and live out the remainder of his days in relative comfort. If it were a one time offer, he might want to jump on it. Lord knows he hasn't made any good decisions lately.

*If that's their job.

No, it's not. Putin doesn't work for the Duma, the Duma works for Putin.

Only if several of the Siloviki, the heads of the military and security agencies, come together and agree that Putin's time has come, they might be in a position to make such an offer. But I think Putin has anticipated that and made sure decades before that all the key positions are filled with people loyal to him, and that there isn't any single person who could organize a coup without other agencies being able to stop it.

 

[Jayjay]

As Russia struggles with its battlefield losses, Putin seeks to involve Belarus to pull more Ukrainian forces away from the eastern and southern fronts. However, Lukashenko appears less than willing to contribute more soldiers to a losing war, especially given how weak and demoralized his military is.

See:

Belarus army would likely have little impact in Ukraine war​

There are also reports that tanks and other equipment is being moved from Belarus to Donbas front. The troops there are probably because they're being "trained" on the job, and to provide a vague threat of attack in the north which forces Ukraine to tie up its troops to secure the border anyway.

Personaly, I think the idea is also to make sure that Belarus stays firmly in Russia's grip in the long term. No surprise coups or civil unrest like in Maidan or Tehran.

 

[Jayjay]

For those who think they know what Russian public opinion is, I offer this interesting article from the Moscow Times:

Startup Pollsters Challenge Accepted Wisdom on Russians’ War Support​

Of course, The Moscow Times is an anti-government news outlet that has been banned in Russia, so you can take their bias FWIW. However, no source is more biased than the Russian government itself. My point is that there is no effective means for measuring public opinion, so you sometimes have to look for alternative points of view. The easiest thing is to read a lot of news articles and then come away with some superficial impression based on the few sources your have been exposed to. Russia is a huge, complex country, and there is much more variety and diversity there than most outsiders are aware of. So these alternative pollsters have some interesting methods to apply to the problem, but they are necessarily limited in their sources of information. The most common estimate for Russian public opinion is that about 70% of the public is pro-war. These alternative pollsters claim that a more realistic estimate would be around 40% or even lower. The truth is probably in between those figures.

Yes. That's exactly it. Also consider the fact that lots of Russians don't get outside information. If it were a free society with all the freedoms we enjoy in the west I'm absolutely certain that support for the Ukraine invasion would be about 30%. That correlates with Trumpism in the U.S. There is no doubt a wedge of right wing nationalism in Putinstan but anything more is clearly coerced.

I think a lot of Russians aren't pro- or anti-war, but just support whatever Putin says. If Putin decided tomorrow that the war is over, they'd flip immediately.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

When G.W.H. Bush ejected Iraq from Kuwait, his approval ratings skyrocketed. When G.W. Bush lied us into a war in Iraq, his approval ratings sky rocketed. Maggie Thatcher was very despised until a successful war with Argentina boosted her approval ratings. Reagan and Grenada.

Putin's support with this war should be no surprise. However a losing war like the U.S. in Vietnam is a different matter. Putin's humiliating showing in Ukraine will in the end not make him a glorious Russian hero. As Russia takes a big hit from sanctions over time, support will fade.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Reports are coming in from Russia that Russia is rounding up Russian homeless persons and transients and conscripting them as cannon fodder.