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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Watch the water in the video. Note that it doesn't react appreciably. Look at the picture here: https://news.yahoo.com/us-battleships-fired-guns-last-163655963.html

Note that the boom is well above the waterline and not pointed towards the water but see what happens anyway. From this I conclude the boom was above something solid and from the video and the damage pattern that something is the road. I believe all the rail damage is simply fire from the train eating shrapnel.

How the boom got to that point I do not know but that truck looks like a likely suspect.
A bomb sitting or landing on the solid concrete pile cap wouldn't appreciably affect the water either. And a bomb on the bridge deck doesn't explain the apparent lifting damage to the roadway - it would have just blown a hole straight through the deck, without pulling the sections inwards, and there would be only one downward pointing break, not two.
A bomb on the landing would be similar to the battleship guns firing--it would disturb the water.

What I think happened to the bridge is the bomb slammed it down and it bounced. Ever hit something loose with a hammer and have it jump up?
Yeah, also, looks like what would happen to a hinged board if it were to rotate while bending at the hinge. This would happen if there was an imbalance of weight on the bridge, like from a heavy truck (I think).
 
Kherson: Russia to evacuate civilians from occupied region as Ukraine advances

The article states that Ukraine has taken parts of the city in the northwest. Great news.

Kherson is the only regional capital seized by Russian forces since Moscow's invasion began on 24 February.

Ukraine's military has been tight-lipped about its troop advances in the key region that borders Crimea - the southern Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Remember what I've been saying? Kherson is about to get nuked by Russia. First comes the inevitable advance of the UA on the city, while Russia populates the city with nothing but soldiers conscripted of protestors, then comes the UA assault, the antiwar conscripts let them in, and then RU nukes the lot of them.

They spin it at home as the west doing the nuking, or perhaps as a necessary sacrifice and "remember the martyrs."

At that point Putin expects the west to cave because it would be the only way to avert the tragic insanity of Russia using nukes
No, that crackpot scenario is not going to happen. :rolleyes:

if Ukraine gets the city back, it'll be leveled with regular artillery, not nukes. There are better targets for nuclear weapons than Kherson: bridges over Dnipro to cut Ukrainian logistics, the capital, or an actual nuclear plant for maximum terror factor.
 
Kherson: Russia to evacuate civilians from occupied region as Ukraine advances

The article states that Ukraine has taken parts of the city in the northwest. Great news.

Kherson is the only regional capital seized by Russian forces since Moscow's invasion began on 24 February.

Ukraine's military has been tight-lipped about its troop advances in the key region that borders Crimea - the southern Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Remember what I've been saying? Kherson is about to get nuked by Russia. First comes the inevitable advance of the UA on the city, while Russia populates the city with nothing but soldiers conscripted of protestors, then comes the UA assault, the antiwar conscripts let them in, and then RU nukes the lot of them.

They spin it at home as the west doing the nuking, or perhaps as a necessary sacrifice and "remember the martyrs."

At that point Putin expects the west to cave because it would be the only way to avert the tragic insanity of Russia using nukes
No, that crackpot scenario is not going to happen. :rolleyes:

if Ukraine gets the city back, it'll be leveled with regular artillery, not nukes. There are better targets for nuclear weapons than Kherson: bridges over Dnipro to cut Ukrainian logistics, the capital, or an actual nuclear plant for maximum terror factor.
No, there really aren't. The best targets would be "large concentrations of Ukranian forces and material".

This would be as much to galvanize Russian forces. When the city is evacuated, it is a valid military target for anything, at least in the mind of someone who has no morals.

There will be little to object to, in Putin's mind, when the bomb is dropped on a "valid military target on Russian soil, according to classic Russian tactics"
 
Kherson: Russia to evacuate civilians from occupied region as Ukraine advances

The article states that Ukraine has taken parts of the city in the northwest. Great news.

Kherson is the only regional capital seized by Russian forces since Moscow's invasion began on 24 February.

Ukraine's military has been tight-lipped about its troop advances in the key region that borders Crimea - the southern Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Remember what I've been saying? Kherson is about to get nuked by Russia. First comes the inevitable advance of the UA on the city, while Russia populates the city with nothing but soldiers conscripted of protestors, then comes the UA assault, the antiwar conscripts let them in, and then RU nukes the lot of them.

They spin it at home as the west doing the nuking, or perhaps as a necessary sacrifice and "remember the martyrs."

At that point Putin expects the west to cave because it would be the only way to avert the tragic insanity of Russia using nukes
No, that crackpot scenario is not going to happen. :rolleyes:

if Ukraine gets the city back, it'll be leveled with regular artillery, not nukes. There are better targets for nuclear weapons than Kherson: bridges over Dnipro to cut Ukrainian logistics, the capital, or an actual nuclear plant for maximum terror factor.
No, there really aren't. The best targets would be "large concentrations of Ukranian forces and material".
Why would Kherson, upon liberation, have any larger concentrations of Ukrainian forces than, say, liberated towns of Izyum or Lyman? Or larger cities like Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, or Mykolaiv?

This would be as much to galvanize Russian forces. When the city is evacuated, it is a valid military target for anything, at least in the mind of someone who has no morals.

There will be little to object to, in Putin's mind, when the bomb is dropped on a "valid military target on Russian soil, according to classic Russian tactics"
Sure, the already demoralized Russian troops are going to be "galvanized" when they hear that in addition to being shot or blown to pieces by artillery fire and Himars rocket, they now will have to contend with risk of radiation poisoning too. o_O
 
Why would Kherson, upon liberation,
We aren't talking "after". We are, as you note, talking "upon". As in the effort to secure the city takes a commitment of troops.

Additionally, the situation of the city having been  recently nuked denies it as a corridor for logistics.

The logistics of Kherson being a city on the RU controlled side of a major river crossing is a major position.
Sure, the already demoralized Russian troops
The point is to accuse the west of doing something that "forced the sacrifice". It is to demoralize the protestors while calling for revenge. I'm not sure how effective that would actually be but that is the kind of enemy we are facing.
 
Why would Kherson, upon liberation,
We aren't talking "after". We are, as you note, talking "upon". As in the effort to secure the city takes a commitment of troops.

Additionally, the situation of the city having been  recently nuked denies it as a corridor for logistics.

The logistics of Kherson being a city on the RU controlled side of a major river crossing is a major position.
You don't need massive troop concentrations to secure the city. Most civilians support Ukraine, and others will flee to Russian-occupied territory. And Ukraine doesn't have an incentive to put troops inside the city, because that just invites shelling and destruction from the Russian side, and unlike Russia, Ukraine actually cares about civilian lives.

Second, Kherson in this scenario wouldn't be on "RU controlled side", because the premise is that Ukraine would drive it out. But I think maybe that was a typo on your part and you meant Ukrainian-controlled.

Sure, the already demoralized Russian troops
The point is to accuse the west of doing something that "forced the sacrifice". It is to demoralize the protestors while calling for revenge. I'm not sure how effective that would actually be but that is the kind of enemy we are facing.
Russian warmongers who think Putin is too weak would be ecstatic if an Ukrainian city was nuked.

I doubt they could blame it on the west. Ukraine doesn't have nukes, and NATO or US isn't going to use nuclear weapons for a first strike, much less a false flag operation. It's not beyond Russian propaganda to try to sell that narrative, but even they must realize that absolutely nobody would believe it, not even Russians.
 
NATO or US isn't going to use nuclear weapons for a first strike, much less a false flag operation. It's not beyond Russian propaganda to try to sell that narrative, but even they must realize that absolutely nobody would believe it, not even Russians.
I think you overestimate the ability of conspiracy theorists to think rationally.

If it's obvious that nobody would believe that NATO would use a nuclear weapon for a false flag operation, then that means that they can expect to avoid all suspicion if they did, and therefore makes it far more likely that any nuclear explosion is exactly that kind of false flag - the Russians wouldn't use a nuke, because they would be aware that everyone would blame them, while NATO wouldn't hesitate, because they know that nobody would blame them.

Therefore the obvious fact that it wouldn't be NATO is unassailable evidence that it would obviously be NATO.

There's literally no way to refute conspiracy theories.
 
You don't need massive troop concentrations to secure the city.
Yes, you do. Do you not know what it means to secure a space the size and complexity of a city? It's like the cork in a wine bottle, keeping the UA from flowing across that river, and staging attacks out of Kherson on the Crimean side.

Second, Kherson in this scenario wouldn't be on "RU controlled side", because the premise is that Ukraine would drive it out
You really do not understand the logistical elements of the existence of a river in a theater of war.

That's fine, but please don't try to talk ignorantly of it. Major rivers create zones of control, and logistics barriers, and these logistics barriers are absolutely vital in a war. Holding a river is a big deal and Kherson holds the river.

A major crossing of the river defended by a complex "surface" like a city requires a significant investment of troops and material.

If the UA can take it, they can launch assaults directly to retake Crimea, and the complexity of the city means the Russians can't really foil them short of burning the whole damn city. That's a big deal and means the Russians lose the war.
 
Satellite imagery indicates there are over 1,000 trucks waiting to be ferried across the Kerch Strait. This is a four day wait as there are only four ferries running. There are Russian military trucks in the queue.
If this is restricting military supply lines to the Kherson region, this should expedite the retaking of Kherson. Meanwhile citizens of Kherson are being told to clear out of the city and being given but one route out, east.

Earlier reports were that Crimeans were taking the long way around trying to get out of Crimea and to Russia. I don’t know if this has subsided.
There aren’t many ways off the Crimean Peninsula.
Kerch bridge OOC
So the bridge is completely kaput? I thought there was limited use. Perhaps not. Very interesting. But need more info.
 
Sure sounds like there is going to be a collapse of Kherson and what is left on the West Bank of the Dnipro river. With a river at your back and bullets at your front, one tends to panic in the space between. If Russian forces get stuck on the wrong side of the river, we could see a mass surrendering.
 
In other news, this mobilization thing is redefining clusterfuck. Lack of training? That’s the least of your worries, son. Basic human necessities is the order of the day. Just survive. And when you get the chance, run like hell.
They’re running. They’re dying. They’re refusing to fight. One poor soul got run over by a Russian APC just standing in formation. Imagine that.
 
NATO or US isn't going to use nuclear weapons for a first strike, much less a false flag operation. It's not beyond Russian propaganda to try to sell that narrative, but even they must realize that absolutely nobody would believe it, not even Russians.
I think you overestimate the ability of conspiracy theorists to think rationally.

If it's obvious that nobody would believe that NATO would use a nuclear weapon for a false flag operation, then that means that they can expect to avoid all suspicion if they did, and therefore makes it far more likely that any nuclear explosion is exactly that kind of false flag - the Russians wouldn't use a nuke, because they would be aware that everyone would blame them, while NATO wouldn't hesitate, because they know that nobody would blame them.

Therefore the obvious fact that it wouldn't be NATO is unassailable evidence that it would obviously be NATO.

There's literally no way to refute conspiracy theories.
Only the criminal western media talks about nukes.
Just for information, it all started with regime in Washington private warning to Russian government which was correctly interpreted as a threat. So Putin mentioned it in his talk saying that Russia have nukes too.
 
In actual news, regime in Washington asked Saudi Arabia to postpone oil production cut until November elections,..... SA refused :)
UN resolution voting was a fiasco with India abstaining. Also US did not allow secret voting, which means regime knows that result would have been even worse.

Crimean bridge bombing was conducted using UN-Ukraine-Russia wheat agreement.
Ukrainian terrorist regime used these wheat shipments to transport explosives from Odessa to Bulgaria. This threatens extension of the agreement.

These iranian drones are real pain in ukrainian ass. Ukrainian regime lost Mig-29 trying to shoot it down :) Apparently mig-29 was damaged by debris from destroyed drone and then crashed. That's very unfortunate and extremely economically unsustainable.
 
NATO or US isn't going to use nuclear weapons for a first strike, much less a false flag operation. It's not beyond Russian propaganda to try to sell that narrative, but even they must realize that absolutely nobody would believe it, not even Russians.
I think you overestimate the ability of conspiracy theorists to think rationally.

If it's obvious that nobody would believe that NATO would use a nuclear weapon for a false flag operation, then that means that they can expect to avoid all suspicion if they did, and therefore makes it far more likely that any nuclear explosion is exactly that kind of false flag - the Russians wouldn't use a nuke, because they would be aware that everyone would blame them, while NATO wouldn't hesitate, because they know that nobody would blame them.

Therefore the obvious fact that it wouldn't be NATO is unassailable evidence that it would obviously be NATO.

There's literally no way to refute conspiracy theories.
Only the criminal western media talks about nukes.
Just for information, it all started with regime in Washington private warning to Russian government which was correctly interpreted as a threat. So Putin mentioned it in his talk saying that Russia have nukes too.
Ok, straight from the horse's mouth folks, Russia apparently IS gearing up to accuse the west of a false flag nuking.

At least if early warning propaganda faucets are any indication
 
You don't need massive troop concentrations to secure the city.
Yes, you do. Do you not know what it means to secure a space the size and complexity of a city? It's like the cork in a wine bottle, keeping the UA from flowing across that river, and staging attacks out of Kherson on the Crimean side.
Yeah but in your scenario the proverbial cork would be gone, and Ukraine would have liberated the city. Ukraine doesn't need nearly as many soldiers stationed in a liberated territory to keep it secure, than a foreign occupier. And unlike Russia, Ukraine wouldn't want to station much of its artillery or armor inside the city to avoid it getting pummeled by counter-battery fire.

khersonmap.png

In don't see why there would be need to have any more troops in Kherson than any other city near the frontline now: Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv or Mykolaiv. Not that there wouldn't be some troops, but not enough to make it any more appealing target for tactical nukes than those other cities.

Second, Kherson in this scenario wouldn't be on "RU controlled side", because the premise is that Ukraine would drive it out
You really do not understand the logistical elements of the existence of a river in a theater of war.

That's fine, but please don't try to talk ignorantly of it. Major rivers create zones of control, and logistics barriers, and these logistics barriers are absolutely vital in a war. Holding a river is a big deal and Kherson holds the river.

A major crossing of the river defended by a complex "surface" like a city requires a significant investment of troops and material.

If the UA can take it, they can launch assaults directly to retake Crimea, and the complexity of the city means the Russians can't really foil them short of burning the whole damn city. That's a big deal and means the Russians lose the war.
You seem confused about the geography. The city is on the right bank of the Dnipro river. The river is a natural barrier that prevents Ukraine from establishing bridge heads on the left bank and using it to attack Crimea, even it were to take back Kherson city and the Nova Kakhovka dam. From military perspective, Russia could just leave it at that. But being vengeful bastards that they are, they will probably continue to hit the city with artillery until there is nothing left but rubble, but the point is that they don't have to... and there's no particularly good reason to use nuclear weapons for that. They might as well hit a city a little bit farther away from the front line (one that they can't reach with regular artillery) to avoid radioactive fallout harming their own side too much.
 
Satellite imagery indicates there are over 1,000 trucks waiting to be ferried across the Kerch Strait. This is a four day wait as there are only four ferries running. There are Russian military trucks in the queue.
If this is restricting military supply lines to the Kherson region, this should expedite the retaking of Kherson. Meanwhile citizens of Kherson are being told to clear out of the city and being given but one route out, east.

Earlier reports were that Crimeans were taking the long way around trying to get out of Crimea and to Russia. I don’t know if this has subsided.
There aren’t many ways off the Crimean Peninsula.
Kerch bridge OOC
So the bridge is completely kaput? I thought there was limited use. Perhaps not. Very interesting. But need more info.
The rail connection might be usable, they've run some passenger trains at least over it. I think the lines are mostly for civilian traffic. I would imagine that if there was an actual "Z" truck with important stuff going to the front, they'd get priority. Locals seem to agree that military columns are still getting through:

 
NATO or US isn't going to use nuclear weapons for a first strike, much less a false flag operation. It's not beyond Russian propaganda to try to sell that narrative, but even they must realize that absolutely nobody would believe it, not even Russians.
I think you overestimate the ability of conspiracy theorists to think rationally.

If it's obvious that nobody would believe that NATO would use a nuclear weapon for a false flag operation, then that means that they can expect to avoid all suspicion if they did, and therefore makes it far more likely that any nuclear explosion is exactly that kind of false flag - the Russians wouldn't use a nuke, because they would be aware that everyone would blame them, while NATO wouldn't hesitate, because they know that nobody would blame them.

Therefore the obvious fact that it wouldn't be NATO is unassailable evidence that it would obviously be NATO.

There's literally no way to refute conspiracy theories.
Only the criminal western media talks about nukes.
Just for information, it all started with regime in Washington private warning to Russian government which was correctly interpreted as a threat. So Putin mentioned it in his talk saying that Russia have nukes too.
Medvedev has been threatening with nuclear weapons long before the private warnings. And Putin's speech where he uses Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a "precedent" is clearly talking about a first strike, not retaliation to possible western nuclear attack.

NATO and US are not talking at all about nuclear weapons. If Russia uses nukes, the first response will be conventional, whatever that is. In diplomacy, it's sometimes better to say "or else..." than be specific, and that's probably what the "private warnings" from Washington were.
 
Yeah but in your scenario the proverbial cork would be gone, and Ukraine would have liberated the city.
No, in my scenario, it happens AS Ukraine TRIES to liberate the city, at the climax of the military action to take it, as Ukraine goes as all-in on the assault as they will be.

That's when Russia will be planning on using a nuke.
 
In actual news, regime in Washington asked Saudi Arabia to postpone oil production cut until November elections,..... SA refused :)
UN resolution voting was a fiasco with India abstaining. Also US did not allow secret voting, which means regime knows that result would have been even worse.
But only 5 countries voted against. And even some of Russia's top allies like Serbia voted for the resolution.

The general assembly voted against holding a secret vote by 107-13 (39 abstaining). It's not that "US did not allow secret voting", it was the UN. That was a ridiculous request to begin with, only made so that Russia could claim that the results would have been different. In fact, India probably would've voted for the resolution if it wasn't public.

Crimean bridge bombing was conducted using UN-Ukraine-Russia wheat agreement.
Ukrainian terrorist regime used these wheat shipments to transport explosives from Odessa to Bulgaria. This threatens extension of the agreement.
This is almost certainly 100% horse shit. Putin is blaming the wheat shipments because he wants a pretext to terminate the agreement and hurt Ukraine economically.

Per the agreement, all shipments are inspected by Russia. It would be a stupid way to try to smuggle explosives, and SBU (or whoever is behind the mischief in Russia) hasn't had a problem getting their hands on explosives before. Remember the Dugina carbombing?

I find it ironic that you're trashing western media for being unreliable while getting your own "news" directly from Putin and the FSB. :poke_with_stick:
 
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