How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Elon Musk: SpaceX can’t fund Ukraine’s vital Starlink internet indefinitely

The billionaire has been in online fights with Ukrainian officials over a peace plan he put forward that Ukraine says is too generous to Russia.

www.smh.com.au

CNN reported on Thursday that SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon last month saying it could not continue to fund the Starlink service in Ukraine and it may have to stop funding it unless the U.S. military gives the company tens of millions of dollars a month.

Pretty certain the Pentagon takes a dim view on war profiteering. When it's coupled with extortion, I suspect their reply will be something indeed.

He has already reversed himself on this. He is becoming as capricious and flighty as Donald Trump lately. It looks like he was really upset by the fact that his grand compromise for solving the war, which would have Ukraine conceding the February pre-invasion borders to Russia, got rejected by Ukraine. Not only that, but they told him to "fuck off". So he had a momentary desire to take his marbles and go home. Then he remembered that SpaceX had some very lucrative government contracts that kind of dwarfed the Starlink losses he was claiming. So he did an about-face while making a passive-aggressive tweet about how generous he was being.

 

[Patooka]

Then he remembered that SpaceX had some very lucrative government contracts that kind of dwarfed the Starlink losses he was claiming.

"Had" being the operative word I suspect. Not only was that a stupid business tactic, I suspect established players like Raytheon, Northrop, Boeing etc will work very hard to keep Musk and his companies away from the military industrial complex trough permanently. Old money don't like new money.

 

[Copernicus]

Then he remembered that SpaceX had some very lucrative government contracts that kind of dwarfed the Starlink losses he was claiming.

"Had" being the operative word I suspect. Not only was that a stupid business tactic, I suspect established players like Raytheon, Northrop, Boeing etc will work very hard to keep Musk and his companies away from the military industrial complex trough permanently. Old money don't like new money.

He has billions of dollars worth of government contracts, and it is fair to say that a large part of his business depends on government funding. These include USAF contract like:

SpaceX snags $102 million contract to rocket military supplies and humanitarian aid around the world: report​

Also, his donation of Starlink resources to the Ukrainian effort has won him a great deal of praise and good publicity. He probably uses the Starlink losses as a lucrative tax write-off.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder to what extent Crimea is dependent upon Mother Russia for foodstuff and other consumer goods. With only three land routes and assuming transportation priority is given to military needs, Crimean citizen could become quite uneasy with half empty shelves and the fall of Kherson (hopefully this week). In this, Ukrainian forces would not need to retake Crimea. They could block the two northern land routes, turning what is left of the Kerch bridge into a one-way street for Russian rats to flee.

That's what I'm expecting--Ukraine has been going for cutting off rather than direct assault. Why would they change that?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I would think that the Russians should be focusing all their efforts on holding the land they have, rather than lobbing missiles into cities nowhere near the front lines in order to inflict damage on civilian areas and cause civilian casualties...which thus far has only hardened Ukrainian resolve.

You're assuming that the Russian orders make sense. I don't believe they do. The Russian actions look like idiots at the top giving orders that aren't possible to execute and the various underlings trying to do something approximating what they were told to do without regard for whether it makes sense. You don't tell the boss no so there's no viable decision loop because the needed information never makes it back to those giving the orders. The more out of touch with reality the orders are stupider behavior you see in the field.

 

[Jayjay]

Monday (emphasis added):

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Saturday:

At this point I think Russia is doomed. Time is on Ukraine's side. Momentum is growing for NATO countries to start donating advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. The Russian advance has already stalled. Russia has only grabbed one major city (Kherson). Cities is the hardest thing to take, and easiest to defend. Rocket systems are extremely good at hitting things not in a city.

Early in the war Russia overwhelmed Ukraine with more artillery. If Ukraine gets better artillery than Russia then Russia has nothing to counter it.

Pretty fast change of opinion.

Personally I don't think the situation is still very good for Ukraine. It seems like the mobilization has been able to plug the leaks in Russian manpower to the extent that they're at least able to hold their ground in Luhansk. Ukraine hasn't been able to take Svotove or Kreminna, and likely won't anytime soon. In the Donetsk region Russia seems poised to take bakhmut and Ukraine is fighting a delaying battle. In Kherson, satellite images show that the Nova Kakhovka dam is probably passable, despite daily rocket strikes by Ukraine.

With regards to Kherson, I heard a bit on the BBC news a short time ago that a Telegram post from Russian soldiers in the area reported heavy fighting, and they also mentioned that Russia's missile attacks on cities were still underway. If I remember my military history class correctly, the majority of force should be focused on primary objectives, while minimal force should be directed to secondary efforts.

I would think that the Russians should be focusing all their efforts on holding the land they have, rather than lobbing missiles into cities nowhere near the front lines in order to inflict damage on civilian areas and cause civilian casualties...which thus far has only hardened Ukrainian resolve.

Though civilian casualties take the headlines, and some of the strikes were obviously pure terrorism (parks, busy intersections, etc.) the goal isn't just to strike fear into the minds of people, but also to cripple Ukraine's electric grid by striking transformers and power stations. This was already happening before the Kerch bridge strike, and will happen again, and the only saving graces are that Russia doesn't have enough missiles and Ukraine's defenses are getting better.

My understanding is that currently in Ukraine there are already rolling power outages in most of the territory. This not only pisses people off, but also destroys Ukraine's industry and transportation network, and may even affect military logistics.

 

[ZiprHead]

Girkin has been mobilized.

 

[ZiprHead]

Eleven Russian soldiers killed in mass shooting by fellow volunteers

Defence minister says two assailants shot dead after attack at training ground in region bordering Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile reports are coming in that Wagner Group's crminal recruits from Russia's prisons are deserting, taking their weapons with them and are forming criminal gangs running loose in Russia. Who could possibly have foreseen that?

 

[Patooka]

Meanwhile reports are coming in that Wagner Group's crminal recruits from Russia's prisons are deserting, taking their weapons with them and are forming criminal gangs running loose in Russia. Who could possibly have foreseen that?

Not me. That part of the world has a long and sordid history with penal battalions. I would have thought it was the one thing Russia could be competent at doing.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukrainian army advances to Svatove as criticism of mobilization in Russia mounts – ISW

ISW analysts based their conclusions on reports by the Ukrainian General Staff that, “particularly in Donetsk Oblast, certain Russian units are receiving orders from commanders to temporarily halt offensive operations due to extremely low morale, psychological conditions, high rates of desertion, and the non-execution of combat orders.”

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "IZIUM/1300 UTC 16 OCT/ UKR forces have consolidated control of the H-26 HWY and the rail line leading to the city of Svatove. RU combat engineers are constructing trench systems west of the P-66 HWY between Svatove and Kremenna, indicating a local shift to defensive operations. (pic link)" / Twitter

Not in Svatove yet, but getting close.


Sofia Ukraini on Twitter: "Armed Forces of Ukraine are requesting that everyone go dark on posting any information, videos, photos, with regards to Kherson.
Operation Security is critical.
Please spread this message
(vid link)" / Twitter

Sofia Ukraini on Twitter: "Good news about Kherson will come shortly
Patience my dear friends (pic link)" / Twitter
Showing a Ukrainian soldier eating a slice of watermelon.

I've seen pro-Russian tweeters snicker about how Ukraine's forces are being smashed by the Russian ones there.


Invasion fears mount as Russia sends 9,000 troops to Belarus border - "Troop build-up has led many to speculate Kremlin will attempt a new push at Ukrainian capital as embassies begin to shut"
Or at least to try to distract the Ukrainian armed forces.


Samuel Ramani on Twitter: "Russia says that it is relocating 500 Ukrainian children each day from Kherson to Russian territory. A harrowing admission of war crimes." / Twitter

Russian troops kill Ukrainian musician for refusing role in Kherson concert | Ukraine | The Guardian - "International condemnation swift after conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko shot dead in his home"

 

[DrZoidberg]

Monday (emphasis added):

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Saturday:

At this point I think Russia is doomed. Time is on Ukraine's side. Momentum is growing for NATO countries to start donating advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. The Russian advance has already stalled. Russia has only grabbed one major city (Kherson). Cities is the hardest thing to take, and easiest to defend. Rocket systems are extremely good at hitting things not in a city.

Early in the war Russia overwhelmed Ukraine with more artillery. If Ukraine gets better artillery than Russia then Russia has nothing to counter it.

Pretty fast change of opinion.

Yes. The benefits of reading up on stuff.

The donation of military equipment is increasing. Ukraine is getting increasingly advanced military systems. The HIMAR's seem to be a game changer. When they arrived Russian advances stopped and then reversed. Russia is still advancing in the south. But at a snails pace. Now USA is talking about donating aircraft. Reading up on how Russia is basically blind and how Ukraine has full knowledge of all of Russia's movements was very enlightening. The territory Ukraine grabbed recently was a result of them managing to build up troops in an area without Russia learning about it.

If things stay the same Russia will win through attrition. If Ukraine gets more fancy weapons Russia will lose simply because because they're not doing any damage on Ukriane, while Russia keeps losing troops.

It looks like things won't stay the same.

It's not sure the new Russian recruits will be much use for Russia. The last bunch joined voluntarily and they were shit. What are the chances that draftees will be more impressive?

 

[Jarhyn]

Monday (emphasis added):

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Saturday:

At this point I think Russia is doomed. Time is on Ukraine's side. Momentum is growing for NATO countries to start donating advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. The Russian advance has already stalled. Russia has only grabbed one major city (Kherson). Cities is the hardest thing to take, and easiest to defend. Rocket systems are extremely good at hitting things not in a city.

Early in the war Russia overwhelmed Ukraine with more artillery. If Ukraine gets better artillery than Russia then Russia has nothing to counter it.

Pretty fast change of opinion.

Yes. The benefits of reading up on stuff.

The donation of military equipment is increasing. Ukraine is getting increasingly advanced military systems. The HIMAR's seem to be a game changer. When they arrived Russian advances stopped and then reversed. Russia is still advancing in the south. But at a snails pace. Now USA is talking about donating aircraft. Reading up on how Russia is basically blind and how Ukraine has full knowledge of all of Russia's movements was very enlightening. The territory Ukraine grabbed recently was a result of them managing to build up troops in an area without Russia learning about it.

If things stay the same Russia will win through attrition. If Ukraine gets more fancy weapons Russia will lose simply because because they're not doing any damage on Ukriane, while Russia keeps losing troops.

It looks like things won't stay the same.

It's not sure the new Russian recruits will be much use for Russia. The last bunch joined voluntarily and they were shit. What are the chances that draftees will be more impressive?

Like, anyone who has ever designed to play stupid videogames, one learns quickly that if "expensive but effective" takes on "fast and junky", even the slightest bit of skill or momentum in "expensive but effective" will lead to it's supremecy.

This is in fact the entire basis behind "zombie hoard defense", "tower defense" and a large variety of other games.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yes. The benefits of reading up on stuff.

The donation of military equipment is increasing. Ukraine is getting increasingly advanced military systems. The HIMAR's seem to be a game changer. When they arrived Russian advances stopped and then reversed. Russia is still advancing in the south. But at a snails pace. Now USA is talking about donating aircraft. Reading up on how Russia is basically blind and how Ukraine has full knowledge of all of Russia's movements was very enlightening. The territory Ukraine grabbed recently was a result of them managing to build up troops in an area without Russia learning about it.

They are? Did you mean the east as in Bakhmut?
I wonder if we are going to be getting suck detailed info on the war going forward. Much of this was coming from Russian milbloggers and I fear Putin has read them the riot act.

If things stay the same Russia will win through attrition. If Ukraine gets more fancy weapons Russia will lose simply because because they're not doing any damage on Ukriane, while Russia keeps losing troops.

It looks like things won't stay the same.

It's not sure the new Russian recruits will be much use for Russia. The last bunch joined voluntarily and they were shit. What are the chances that draftees will be more impressive?

Troops aren't troops without supplied ammo and other necessities. They're scared people. I wonder what the kill ratio is of trained, well supplied troops to "people" forced to a front line.
EU members are not just training Ukrainians for this war. They are being trained for the future. What Ukraine was trying to accomplish since 2014 largely on its own is happening at breakneck pace now. When the dust settles, Ukraine will have a well trained fighting force to protect it's internationally recognized borders. Russia will have a new president.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like Putin's plans for the Russian economy are to stimulate the coffin and body bag industries. Putin seems hell bent on forcing something to happen. But as the US learned in Iraq... the conquering is actually the easy part... and the occupying is the bitch. And the US had the Iraqi military stand down. Russia hasn't even gotten to the occupation part yet. And the desperation of Putin to force victory looks like it'll actual end him.

Ultimately, Putin can flatten Ukraine with Russia's technological superiority, but he can't occupy it. He simply lacks the ground troops military to do so, in almost every aspect of such a force. From people to weapons to food to fuel.

 

[Jayjay]

Monday (emphasis added):

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Saturday:

At this point I think Russia is doomed. Time is on Ukraine's side. Momentum is growing for NATO countries to start donating advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. The Russian advance has already stalled. Russia has only grabbed one major city (Kherson). Cities is the hardest thing to take, and easiest to defend. Rocket systems are extremely good at hitting things not in a city.

Early in the war Russia overwhelmed Ukraine with more artillery. If Ukraine gets better artillery than Russia then Russia has nothing to counter it.

Pretty fast change of opinion.

Yes. The benefits of reading up on stuff.

The donation of military equipment is increasing. Ukraine is getting increasingly advanced military systems. The HIMAR's seem to be a game changer. When they arrived Russian advances stopped and then reversed. Russia is still advancing in the south. But at a snails pace. Now USA is talking about donating aircraft. Reading up on how Russia is basically blind and how Ukraine has full knowledge of all of Russia's movements was very enlightening. The territory Ukraine grabbed recently was a result of them managing to build up troops in an area without Russia learning about it.

If things stay the same Russia will win through attrition. If Ukraine gets more fancy weapons Russia will lose simply because because they're not doing any damage on Ukriane, while Russia keeps losing troops.

It looks like things won't stay the same.

It's not sure the new Russian recruits will be much use for Russia. The last bunch joined voluntarily and they were shit. What are the chances that draftees will be more impressive?

Like, anyone who has ever designed to play stupid videogames, one learns quickly that if "expensive but effective" takes on "fast and junky", even the slightest bit of skill or momentum in "expensive but effective" will lead to it's supremecy.

This is in fact the entire basis behind "zombie hoard defense", "tower defense" and a large variety of other games.

All my knowledge of modern warfare comes from playing "Advance Wars" on Nintendo emulators. In those games flooding the enemy with cheap-ass infantry units is often a winning strategy, though not optimal.

Russia still has some advantages: They are (mostly) on the defense, and it's easier than attacking. They have more people to draw from, despite lack of motivation. They have more artillery and armor for now, though Ukraine has been able to constrain the logistics somewhat. And their entire economy is now geared for war production, whereas Ukraine has to survive on donations.

Ukraine's advantages are higher precision weapons and better intelligence.

 

[Ford]

Troops aren't troops without supplied ammo and other necessities. They're scared people. I wonder what the kill ratio is of trained, well supplied troops to "people" forced to a front line.
EU members are not just training Ukrainians for this war. They are being trained for the future. What Ukraine was trying to accomplish since 2014 largely on its own is happening at breakneck pace now. When the dust settles, Ukraine will have a well trained fighting force to protect it's internationally recognized borders. Russia will have a new president.

Unfortunately, Putin seems to have settled on attrition. Gambling on the idea that poorly trained and equipped troops will eventually wear down Ukraine's military simply by sheer force of numbers.

I'd be willing to bet that he has moments where he wonders if he'd be able to name a city in Ukraine "Putingrad" in his "honor" after this is all over.

 

[Jayjay]

Looks like Putin's plans for the Russian economy are to stimulate the coffin and body bag industries. Putin seems hell bent on forcing something to happen. But as the US learned in Iraq... the conquering is actually the easy part... and the occupying is the bitch. And the US had the Iraqi military stand down. Russia hasn't even gotten to the occupation part yet. And the desperation of Putin to force victory looks like it'll actual end him.

Ultimately, Putin can flatten Ukraine with Russia's technological superiority, but he can't occupy it. He simply lacks the ground troops military to do so, in almost every aspect of such a force. From people to weapons to food to fuel.

I think the occupation is going just fine, from Putin's perspective. The difference to Iraq is that Americans weren't resorting to mass murder and ethnic cleansing, which Russia has no problem carrying out. Ukrainian-speaking people have fled voluntarily, been killed, or transferred to Russia. Their children are being taken away as "orphans". Ukrainian language is banned, schools have mandatory Russian education that repeats Russian propaganda about evil Ukrainian nazis and how they were rescued. 24/7 Russian propaganda barrage on television, internet is routed through Russia and its firewall, and Russian people are brought in just like in Crimea 2014. The russification of the occupied territories is happening and it's very effective.

The war is poised to last for years. By that time, the occupied territories will be fully subjugated, like the "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like Putin's plans for the Russian economy are to stimulate the coffin and body bag industries. Putin seems hell bent on forcing something to happen. But as the US learned in Iraq... the conquering is actually the easy part... and the occupying is the bitch. And the US had the Iraqi military stand down. Russia hasn't even gotten to the occupation part yet. And the desperation of Putin to force victory looks like it'll actual end him.

Ultimately, Putin can flatten Ukraine with Russia's technological superiority, but he can't occupy it. He simply lacks the ground troops military to do so, in almost every aspect of such a force. From people to weapons to food to fuel.

I suspect there’s a Putlerist calculation that Ukraine can be rendered uninhabitable without significantly impacting its value to Pootey’s new USSR. That value is in minerals and arable land, not livable cities or villages. The more Ukranian civilians they can eliminate in the process of destroying the country, the better for them. So “winning” for Pootey is just a matter of keeping the drones, artillery and missiles raining down on inhabited areas until everyone outside Ukraine loses interest in supporting them. As for casualties…
The death of unwilling Russian conscripts killed in the process of destroying Ukraine and those who would defy Pootey’s ownership claims, is not a problem, it’s a benefit.
So yeah - Russia is “winning”.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like Putin's plans for the Russian economy are to stimulate the coffin and body bag industries. Putin seems hell bent on forcing something to happen. But as the US learned in Iraq... the conquering is actually the easy part... and the occupying is the bitch. And the US had the Iraqi military stand down. Russia hasn't even gotten to the occupation part yet. And the desperation of Putin to force victory looks like it'll actual end him.

Ultimately, Putin can flatten Ukraine with Russia's technological superiority, but he can't occupy it. He simply lacks the ground troops military to do so, in almost every aspect of such a force. From people to weapons to food to fuel.

I think the occupation is going just fine, from Putin's perspective. The difference to Iraq is that Americans weren't resorting to mass murder and ethnic cleansing, which Russia has no problem carrying out. Ukrainian-speaking people have fled voluntarily, been killed, or transferred to Russia. Their children are being taken away as "orphans". Ukrainian language is banned, schools have mandatory Russian education that repeats Russian propaganda about evil Ukrainian nazis and how they were rescued. 24/7 Russian propaganda barrage on television, internet is routed through Russia and its firewall, and Russian people are brought in just like in Crimea 2014. The russification of the occupied territories is happening and it's very effective.

The war is poised to last for years. By that time, the occupied territories will be fully subjugated, like the "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014.

Maybe in portions that Russia has controlled for years, but Putin wanted the whole country, and most of Ukraine is unoccupied.