How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jarhyn]

Monday (emphasis added):

Ukraine is still not winning the war. They've had a couple of weeks of good fortune. Following half a year of bad fortune.

Time is on Russias side. Since Russia has ten times of everything they will win a war of attrition.

The west is extremely pro-Ukraine. So our press is filled with hopeful underdog stories. We like to cheer when it goes well for Ukraine. So that's the kind of spin the stories we see have.

I think the situation for Ukraine is a lot worse than what Western press is willing to admit. This may very well end with Ukraine accepting the loss of occupied land

Saturday:

At this point I think Russia is doomed. Time is on Ukraine's side. Momentum is growing for NATO countries to start donating advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. The Russian advance has already stalled. Russia has only grabbed one major city (Kherson). Cities is the hardest thing to take, and easiest to defend. Rocket systems are extremely good at hitting things not in a city.

Early in the war Russia overwhelmed Ukraine with more artillery. If Ukraine gets better artillery than Russia then Russia has nothing to counter it.

Pretty fast change of opinion.

Yes. The benefits of reading up on stuff.

The donation of military equipment is increasing. Ukraine is getting increasingly advanced military systems. The HIMAR's seem to be a game changer. When they arrived Russian advances stopped and then reversed. Russia is still advancing in the south. But at a snails pace. Now USA is talking about donating aircraft. Reading up on how Russia is basically blind and how Ukraine has full knowledge of all of Russia's movements was very enlightening. The territory Ukraine grabbed recently was a result of them managing to build up troops in an area without Russia learning about it.

If things stay the same Russia will win through attrition. If Ukraine gets more fancy weapons Russia will lose simply because because they're not doing any damage on Ukriane, while Russia keeps losing troops.

It looks like things won't stay the same.

It's not sure the new Russian recruits will be much use for Russia. The last bunch joined voluntarily and they were shit. What are the chances that draftees will be more impressive?

Like, anyone who has ever designed to play stupid videogames, one learns quickly that if "expensive but effective" takes on "fast and junky", even the slightest bit of skill or momentum in "expensive but effective" will lead to it's supremecy.

This is in fact the entire basis behind "zombie hoard defense", "tower defense" and a large variety of other games.

All my knowledge of modern warfare comes from playing "Advance Wars" on Nintendo emulators. In those games flooding the enemy with cheap-ass infantry units is often a winning strategy, though not optimal.

Russia still has some advantages: They are (mostly) on the defense, and it's easier than attacking. They have more people to draw from, despite lack of motivation. They have more artillery and armor for now, though Ukraine has been able to constrain the logistics somewhat. And their entire economy is now geared for war production, whereas Ukraine has to survive on donations.

Ukraine's advantages are higher precision weapons and better intelligence.

It really depends on what the upper end is on the economy of precision/range/tech vs how much "cheap shit" can be thrown.

Eventually, you end up running out of warm bodies.

Russian defense lives at the intersection of scorched earth and logistics surrounding movement of ground forces, and perhaps air defense emplacements.

It doesn't matter if an economy is geared towards war production though when those gears are made of nothing but rust.

The problem is that the west is not going to let Ukraine collapse, mostly because it does not serve to let a bully be a bully.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Looks like Putin's plans for the Russian economy are to stimulate the coffin and body bag industries. Putin seems hell bent on forcing something to happen. But as the US learned in Iraq... the conquering is actually the easy part... and the occupying is the bitch. And the US had the Iraqi military stand down. Russia hasn't even gotten to the occupation part yet. And the desperation of Putin to force victory looks like it'll actual end him.

Ultimately, Putin can flatten Ukraine with Russia's technological superiority, but he can't occupy it. He simply lacks the ground troops military to do so, in almost every aspect of such a force. From people to weapons to food to fuel.

I think the occupation is going just fine, from Putin's perspective. The difference to Iraq is that Americans weren't resorting to mass murder and ethnic cleansing, which Russia has no problem carrying out. Ukrainian-speaking people have fled voluntarily, been killed, or transferred to Russia. Their children are being taken away as "orphans". Ukrainian language is banned, schools have mandatory Russian education that repeats Russian propaganda about evil Ukrainian nazis and how they were rescued. 24/7 Russian propaganda barrage on television, internet is routed through Russia and its firewall, and Russian people are brought in just like in Crimea 2014. The russification of the occupied territories is happening and it's very effective.

The war is poised to last for years. By that time, the occupied territories will be fully subjugated, like the "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014.

Putin is 70. This is his war. It is not Russia's war.

 

[Jayjay]

The problem is that the west is not going to let Ukraine collapse, mostly because it does not serve to let a bully be a bully.

We let Afghanistan collapse. Iraq ain't doing so great either. We left the Kurds who helped fight ISIS at the mercy of Turkey.

The west doesn't exactly have a stellar track record, but maybe this time is different.

 

[Jarhyn]

The problem is that the west is not going to let Ukraine collapse, mostly because it does not serve to let a bully be a bully.

We let Afghanistan collapse. Iraq ain't doing so great either. We left the Kurds who helped fight ISIS at the mercy of Turkey.

The west doesn't exactly have a stellar track record, but maybe this time is different.

It will be, mostly because this threatens Europe in addition to Ukraine. Nobody really gave much of a shit about desert shitholes, even if they should have.

 

[Elixir]

Nobody really gave much of a shit about desert shitholes, even if they should have.

I know for a fact that Trump abandoning the Kurds earned him the contempt of a lot of active service personnel.

 

[Jarhyn]

Nobody really gave much of a shit about desert shitholes, even if they should have.

I know for a fact that Trump abandoning the Kurds earned him the contempt of a lot of active service personnel.

True. I guess my point is that so long as our country isn't administrated by "america first" lickspittles, we are at the very least going to be interested in the stability and security of our largest trading partners.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

"America first" is propaganda for "me first."

 

[lpetrich]

Amazonia is everywhere on Twitter: "@matisse_enzer @NOELreports Some sources say that AFU started shelling center of Svatove using conventional artillery." / Twitter

Also this overconfident tweet,
OldHippie on Twitter: "#Svatove has been taken by #UkraineArmy announcement coming soon" / Twitter
with response
Τίμων on Twitter: "@The_Old_Hippie Not the first time you announce false news. I reckon you're enthousiastic, but it's useless or even counterproductive to go faster than the music. Please keep your head cold and stop desinforming us. #UkraineRussiaWar #KhersonCounteroffensive #Kreminna #Svatove #PutinWarCriminal" / Twitter

Much harder to say what's going on near Kherson, however.

 

[TV and credit cards]

What was stamped "Reject" is now stamped "Russia".
When you have to buy your microchips through intermediaries, you take what you can get. What are you gonna do? Complain?
Share of defective microchips from China to Russia up from 2% to 40% since start of war, Kommersant reports

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Like, anyone who has ever designed to play stupid videogames, one learns quickly that if "expensive but effective" takes on "fast and junky", even the slightest bit of skill or momentum in "expensive but effective" will lead to it's supremecy.

This is in fact the entire basis behind "zombie hoard defense", "tower defense" and a large variety of other games.

Disagree. Big, lumbering things can often be efficiently killed by lots of little things.

The US doesn't have an aircraft that can't be defeated by it's value in Vietnam-era Migs--if they'll take the losses that entails.

 

[Jarhyn]

"America first" is propaganda for "me first."

It gives language at a general enough level to say it in a way that doesn't seem like it. A dog-whistle to those who wish to say "I believe in selfishness" without actually saying it

Like, anyone who has ever designed to play stupid videogames, one learns quickly that if "expensive but effective" takes on "fast and junky", even the slightest bit of skill or momentum in "expensive but effective" will lead to it's supremecy.

This is in fact the entire basis behind "zombie hoard defense", "tower defense" and a large variety of other games.

Disagree. Big, lumbering things can often be efficiently killed by lots of little things.

The US doesn't have an aircraft that can't be defeated by it's value in Vietnam-era Migs--if they'll take the losses that entails.

But that comes down to judicious use of resources. With the big lumbering thing, you need layers of scrimmage and defense, and the big lumbering thing is in fact in modern arsenals actually a mobile emplacement well behind lines.

What really matters is having the economy to spend as little capital as possible on as effective a system as one can produce.

"Spray and pray" has lost to one shot, one kill under low risk cover fire.

 

[ZiprHead]

They just fall from the sky...

 

[steve_bank]

It is getting sickening.

The continual methodical destruction and killing of civilians. Putin appears psychopathic, killing with no emotion or feeling.

From his pictures and videos Putin seems quite happy and secure in his position.

 

[Jayjay]

There was another "training flight" crash a few weeks back. That one didn't have any civilian casualties. But these incidents really show the quality of the Russian air force.

Or maybe they're adjusted their training regiment to match what they're going to face in Ukraine: crashing and burning.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I was attached to a navy fighter squadron for about a year and a half. Not being in an aviation rate, I was in charge of the toolroom. Their tool control and quality assurance was tight. If a tool didn't come back, no one went home until it was found and flight ops might be cancelled. If a drill bit of hex bit was broken, all the fragments were brought to me stuck on a piece of tape and the cockpit or wherever was vacuumed out.
Lord knows what's left inside a Russian plane that doesn't belong there. Or what's left out that does.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

For emotional reasons Hitler shifted his bombing of Britain to cities and away from military installations. This was in retaliation for Britain doing the same thing though it has been argued it was a British mistake. Nevertheless it allowed British airpower to recover and eventually thwart a planned invasion.

If Ukraine resorts to terror bombing they lose military support, at least outside Ukraine, support they need. Poostain may in fact be goading Ukraine to retaliate in kind which would only degrade Ukraine's military capability and success. Ukraine needs more Kerch Bridge successes to keep the fans rallied at home.

 

[lpetrich]

Conflict on Twitter: "Rus askeri uçağının, Rusya'da sivil yerleşim yerine düştüğü anlar.
Uçağın Su-34 olduğu iddia ediliyor. (vid link)" / Twitter

The moments when the Russian military plane crashed into a civilian settlement in Russia.
The plane is claimed to be a Su-34.

A lot of burning at an apartment building.

Orthodox Canonist on Twitter: "A Sukhoi Su-34 bomber plane had internal failure and crash landed into an apartment in the Russian town of Yeysk.
Both airforce pilots managed to eject in time, the matter is still being investigated… (pic link)" / Twitter

NEXTA on Twitter: "A video with the pilot of the crashed Su-34 in #Yeysk
The pilot was conscious after the crash, but he could not get up and take off his parachute.
The pilot's conversation with eyewitnesses:
- Everything is fine?
- Yes
- It was shot down, right?
- No
- Let me help you. (vid link)" / Twitter

Dylan Frank on Twitter: "A #Russian Su-34 that cost $36 million dollars crashed into a residential house in #Eysk, #Krasnodar Krai shortly after it took of so far 10 civilians are dead, and one pilot while the other one ejected as you can see below .
(pic link)" / Twitter

Status-6 on Twitter: "The remains of a Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber that fell on a residential building in the Russian city of Yeysk earlier this evening. (vid link)" / Twitter

Dan minor on Twitter: "@wartranslated Seeing reports the Pilot was mobilzed from a civilian airliner last week. Who knows how long it has been since he was in an Su-34, or if he had EVER been in an Su-34." / Twitter
with response
Jonathan Maclennan. on Twitter: "@Danminor5 @wartranslated This is true. He was 2nd in command steward of 2nd class passengers on commercial flights. This was first training mission as pilot. His experience didn’t help. He crashes while doing the safety demonstration. " / Twitter

Given how desperate the Russian armed forces have been to get recruits, that seems very plausible.

ТРУХА️English on Twitter: "Surveillance camera caught the moment of a Russian Su-34 crash in Yeysk. (vid link)" / Twitter
It's in the distance - one can barely resolve the plane. It made some flashes shortly before hitting the building -- did it hit some power lines?

 

[lpetrich]

Yeysk is on the Sea of Azov, on the south shore of its northeastward projection. It is about 70 km SE of Mariupol.

This is what we are getting from the Kherson area: Sofia Ukraini on Twitter: "Breaking news from Kherson Ukraine! The watermelon is sweet and tasty! (pic link)" / Twitter


NOËL on Twitter: "SitRep - 17/10 - "Another wave of drones"
A daily overview of the events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Since there is still an OPSEC BLACKOUT, we zoom in on general events but also look at the current situation at multiple fronts without too much details.
1/X (pic link)" / Twitter

With
NOËL on Twitter: "This morning a total of 37 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones were already shot down in less then 13 hours. Today 8 more were shot down, making a total of 45 drones shot down in 24 hours. (link)" / Twitter
But
NOËL on Twitter: "Despite the successrate of destroyed drones, there are still drones slipping trough the airdefenses. This morning #Kyiv but also #Vinnytsia and #Odesa were subject to attacks. Even locals tried to help shoot them down. Again civilian buildings were hit. (links)" / Twitter

Seems like a good rate of shooting those planes down, even if not quite 100%.

 

[lpetrich]

NOËL on Twitter: "Kherson - "Silence"
Shelling recorded in Mylove, Nova Kamyanka, Bruskin'ske
Everyone asks: what is happening here? Given that is preparing for evacuation, an offensive is likely. AFU build-up is reported in #Mykolaiv. Meanwhile AFU keeps pressuring the whole front (pic link)" / Twitter
Showing a little bit more advance along the Dnieper River.

NOËL on Twitter: "Bakhmut - "Toughest frontline"
Shelling reported in Soledar, Bakhmuts'ke, Bakhmut and Mayorske.
reportedly assigned 2 extra BTGs to force a breaktrough
AFU forces hold their positions. (pic link)" / Twitter
Looks like a Russian attempt to counter the successful attacks to the north and southwest. Hoping that Ukraine might commit troops from elsewhere to fight them.

NOËL on Twitter: "AFU defense made up by the 58th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade , 30th and 93rd Mechanized Brigades and 80th Air Brigade.
The battlefield is difficult, has allocated extra tank batallions, motor rifle/air assault brigades spearheaded by recently added PMC Wagners." / Twitter

NOËL on Twitter: "Kreminna - "Silence, and repel"
shelled Terny, Yampolivka, Tors'ke, Zarichne
Still no visual proof of recapturing Chervona Dibrova. I consider it
Contested area might be wider towards Terny attacked N/NW of Kreminna and retreated
news will come (pic link)" / Twitter
Almost at Kreminna but not quite.

NOËL on Twitter: "Kupyansk-Svatove - "Pressure continues"
shelled Berestove, Petropavlivka, Pershotravneve,Hrekivka and Novoyehorivka.
Raihodorodka, Kovalivka & Novodyane are considered given repetative shelling
Unconfirmed reports of a counterattack at Kyslivka
P07 for 75% (pic link)" / Twitter
Here also, almost at Svatove but not quite.

 

[steve_bank]

Switching to terror bombing was one of Hitler's major blunders.

The RAF was back on its heels. The shift gave the RAF time to rearm and train pilots.