How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

EXACTLY!!! What the fuck else do we even need an air and armored force for? If Russia is defeated, we don’t need to spend but a fraction of the defense budget. The point of our military is to turn Russia into a parking lot. Let Ukraine do it! Give them everything we have in our arsenal. It should be 100’s of billions.

China.

China would be a naval war. Subs in fact. We’d sink their navy in about five minutes and then sue for peace.

I'm not thinking of a direct confrontation, but rather China going after it's neighbors.

My point would be we’re not going to need armor for such a confrontation. Maybe in Korea, but I don’t see them attacking South Korea. They’re only interested in Taiwan. Part of China or not. They consider it China, and an internal province and issue. They’re likely to avoid picking a fight with other neighbors. Regardless, I don’t see us using massive amounts of armor or artillery. So give it to Ukraine. Russia is the armor threat. Destroy it and you don’t need armor or artillery - or at least not nearly as much.

 

[Copernicus]

EXACTLY!!! What the fuck else do we even need an air and armored force for? If Russia is defeated, we don’t need to spend but a fraction of the defense budget. The point of our military is to turn Russia into a parking lot. Let Ukraine do it! Give them everything we have in our arsenal. It should be 100’s of billions.

China.

China would be a naval war. Subs in fact. We’d sink their navy in about five minutes and then sue for peace.

I'm not thinking of a direct confrontation, but rather China going after it's neighbors.

My point would be we’re not going to need armor for such a confrontation. Maybe in Korea, but I don’t see them attacking South Korea. They’re only interested in Taiwan. Part of China or not. They consider it China, and an internal province and issue. They’re likely to avoid picking a fight with other neighbors. Regardless, I don’t see us using massive amounts of armor or artillery. So give it to Ukraine. Russia is the armor threat. Destroy it and you don’t need armor or artillery - or at least not nearly as much.

You may not understand the importance of Taiwan to the world outside of China, but China does. Taiwan has about 20% of the global semiconductor industry, among other things, and its industrial base is of extremely strategic importance to the US military. Taiwan's main exports are electronics, basic metals and metal products, plastics and rubber, chemicals, and machinery. China has strategic reasons for wanting to control the industry and wealth of that Island nation, and the US has strategic reasons for not allowing that to happen. This is one of the reason that the Biden administration has been rushing to repair and rebuild home-grown expertise in those areas that would be lost, if Taiwan were to fall into Chinese hands, allowing it to corner more of the global industry in electronics and high tech industries.

 

[Jayjay]

Call me an idealist, but I think the democratic freedoms of the 24 million people living in Taiwan is more important than the "industrial base" or "strategic importance" of the Island to the US.

 

[bilby]

This is one of the reason that the Biden administration has been rushing to repair and rebuild home-grown expertise in those areas that would be lost, if Taiwan were to fall into Chinese hands, allowing it to corner more of the global industry in electronics and high tech industries.

If China were to invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese electronics and high tech industries would rapidly cease to exist.

High tech factories and high explosive missiles and shells don't mix well.

China wouldn't be cornering any markets as a consequence of their invasion, unless there's a robust world market for rubble.

 

[bilby]

Call me an idealist, but I think the democratic freedoms of the 24 million people living in Taiwan is more important than the "industrial base" or "strategic importance" of the Island to the US.

You're an idealist*.

The people who decide what the US Defence Budget is spent on care a lot about strategic importance, and a fair bit about industrial bases (particularly when that industrial base underpins the supply of critical military hardware).

Democratic freedoms are a nice touch, but easily discarded in pursuit of those more important priorities.

It would be nice if US voters were to adjust those priorities, but right now they're barely able to be trusted with maintaining the limited democratic freedoms extant in the USA, much less with those of people on the other side of the world.











*You're welcome

 

[lpetrich]

Ukrainian Tanks Are In Urozhaine—And Inching Toward Mariupol
Near Staromaiors'ke, recently recaptured.

ISW Blog: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2023

Ukraine Watch on Twitter: "The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced progress on the southern front and the liberation of several areas, including the suburb near Robotyne in Zaporizhia province, which is a key point in the war. #ukrainecounteroffensive" / X

WarUpdates on Twitter: "Ukrainian Forces continue moving a long a tree line between Robotyne and Verbove. Movement was also detected North East from Robotyne. https://t.co/HLDa2UGDpv" / X

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "For the first time ..." / X

For the first time in this war Ukrainian forces not only successfully crossed the Dnipro River but also the Konka River behind, establishing a permanent bridge head on the south/east side near Kozachi Laheri.

All Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainians failed and the Russian recon unit initially investigating the Ukrainian landing was most likely destroyed.

#Ukraine #Kherson

About 15 mi / 25 km up the river from Kherson.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukrainian Tanks Are In Urozhaine—And Inching Toward Mariupol
Near Staromaiors'ke, recently recaptured.

If you look at the map, the Ukrainians are going to pass through or very close to Russian territory on their move south. This is obviously so they can deal with supply lines inside Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian Tanks Are In Urozhaine—And Inching Toward Mariupol
Near Staromaiors'ke, recently recaptured.

What's interesting to me is the use of JDAM glide bombs. I recently called them useless. Guess I was wrong.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian Tanks Are In Urozhaine—And Inching Toward Mariupol
Near Staromaiors'ke, recently recaptured.

If you look at the map, the Ukrainians are going to pass through or very close to Russian territory on their move south. This is obviously so they can deal with supply lines inside Russia.

What do you mean by this? Urozhaine is nowhere near Russian territory.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainian Tanks Are In Urozhaine—And Inching Toward Mariupol
Near Staromaiors'ke, recently recaptured.

If you look at the map, the Ukrainians are going to pass through or very close to Russian territory on their move south. This is obviously so they can deal with supply lines inside Russia.

What do you mean by this? Urozhaine is nowhere near Russian territory.

41km as the crow flies. Oops. Wrong Urozhaine.

I think Russia attacked ISW. I haven't been able to open it all morning.

 

[Jayjay]

41km as the crow flies. Oops. Wrong Urozhaine.

The situation at the front lines is difficult, but nothing is as difficult as the Ukrainian geography quiz.

They've got three five Urozhaines, for example.

 

[bilby]

41km as the crow flies. Oops. Wrong Urozhaine.

The situation at the front lines is difficult, but nothing is as difficult as the Ukrainian geography quiz.

They've got three five Urozhaines, for example.

The US has sixty seven Springfields (not including the fictional one the Simpsons live in), so it's going to be even harder to follow the progress of the Canadian invasion.

 

[Harry Bosch]

41km as the crow flies. Oops. Wrong Urozhaine.

The situation at the front lines is difficult, but nothing is as difficult as the Ukrainian geography quiz.

They've got three five Urozhaines, for example.

The US has sixty seven Springfields (not including the fictional one the Simpsons live in), so it's going to be even harder to follow the progress of the Canadian invasion.

Very funny! As an aside, Putin has always said that he wants a western border that is very similar to the US/Canada border. We have no troops or floating barb wire barriers (like we set up for brown people on Mexican border). The US has disputes with Canada. But we settle them in court. We don't bomb the fucking shit out them. But this is what Putin wants with the Ukranian border. So, you bomb them, steal their land, rape their women, steal their children and destroy their infrastructure. And yet, Russians blame Nato for the reason why Ukrainians hate Russia! If so, Putin is the dumbest fucking leader in the world by far. Here's a hint dip shit: if you want good relations with a neighbor, be nice to your neighbor! Dumb ass!

 

[lpetrich]

I use Google Maps, and if often gives me several hits for Ukrainian town names. So I have to use which oblast (province) each one is in. Most oblasts are named after the largest town in them, like Donetsk Oblast and Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

If we named US states like that, let's see what we would get. I'm in the state of West Portland, with Seattle to the north, Los Angeles to the south and Boise to the east. I say West Portland because there is a state of East Portland on the east coast, near the states of Manchester and Boston. I don't have the patience to continue with this renaming, except to notice that New York would not be renamed.

Canada has provinces and territories like Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, ... Calgary is a bit more populous than Edmonton, but Edmonton is the capital of Alberta.

The UK has countries London, Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Belfast. Glasgow is a bit more populous than Edinburgh, but Edinburgh is the capital of Scotland.

Australia has states and territories Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart, ...

 

[Copernicus]

Call me an idealist, but I think the democratic freedoms of the 24 million people living in Taiwan is more important than the "industrial base" or "strategic importance" of the Island to the US.

What do you think would happen to those democratic freedoms if Taiwan did not have the military backing of the US and other Asian countries to defend their independence from the mainland? I don't think that you are an idealist, but I do think you underestimate Taiwan's dependence on the US military to maintain its independence and autonomy. Think about what happened to Hong Kong when it got incorporated into the PRC.

This is one of the reason that the Biden administration has been rushing to repair and rebuild home-grown expertise in those areas that would be lost, if Taiwan were to fall into Chinese hands, allowing it to corner more of the global industry in electronics and high tech industries.

If China were to invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese electronics and high tech industries would rapidly cease to exist.

High tech factories and high explosive missiles and shells don't mix well.

China wouldn't be cornering any markets as a consequence of their invasion, unless there's a robust world market for rubble.

I think that China's plans involve threatening a military invasion but not necessarily actually carrying one out. The point is that China could probably do more damage to the US by cutting off the supply chain from Taiwan than to itself. Both the Chinese and US militaries depend on Taiwan's products, but the US has more of a problem with global supply chains. I view China as playing something of the same game that Russia does when it seeks to monopolize markets that they already play a big role in. For Russia, oil, gas, and uranium are important, which is why it has an interest in the Niger coup (for control of a large uranium supply) and OPEC (for control of oil supplies). China is a high tech powerhouse, so it makes economic sense for them to target economic rivals like Taiwan in that industry sector.

 

[bilby]

Australia has states and territories Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart,

Australians frequently use the names of states and the names of their capital cities interchangeably. Probably because almost everyone in any given state lives in (or very near) the capital.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

Nearly 1,000 Ukrainian marines to return home after 'intense' training from elite UK commandos

Over 20,000 Ukrainian military personnel have been trained by UK forces since the start of 2022.

news.sky.com

Over 20,000 Ukrainians have received training from the UK so far, and the British government committed to training 20,000 more at the start of 2023.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: "The UK has led the way in training the Armed Force of Ukraine, providing world-leading training in frontline combat skills to more than 20,000 of Ukraine's Army recruits through Operation Interflex.

 

[ZiprHead]

Metro 2033 author Dmitry Glukhovsky sentenced to 8 years in prison for criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Glukhovsky was found guilty of posting social media messages accusing Russian soldiers of committing crimes in Ukraine.

www.pcgamer.com

Fortunately for Glukhovsky, he is not actually in Russia, and was sentenced in absentia. His current whereabouts are unknown.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine war: Crimea bridge targeted by missiles, Russia says

The bridge that connects Russia to occupied Crimea has been attacked at least twice before.

www.bbc.com

Two Ukrainian missiles have targeted a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula, Moscow says.
Videos on social media show plumes of smoke rising near Kerch bridge. Russia's defence ministry said S-200 missiles had been used and shot down causing no damage.
Ukraine has not commented on the alleged attack.
There have been at least two other attacks targeting the bridge in the past few months.

There are pictures and reports from locals of up to 8 or 9 explosions and large palls of smoke over the bridge..

ETA:

Russia's foreign ministry said that "such barbaric actions... will not go unanswered".

Depends on if they can find any maternity wards or daycares left standing.