How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Georgian troops tried to retake a break away Georgian area.

......and they thought they can get away without Russia kicking their asses, right?
Again, 4mil population.
Now we have Ukraine with 40mil and really nothing to lose. Russia can't invade (too costly) The best Russia can do it to take breakaway regions and pay with Nord Stream 2. In doing so, Ukraine gets gas transit in perpetuity, rake up cost of it even higher than current 4x premium. US meanwhile can start selling their gas to Europe, and US politicians get contribution from fracking industry. LM is also get huge contracts for selling weapons to defend Europe from Russia. And all of that because some Ukrainian girl wanted better panties.


Does that answer your question?

Yes, those big macho Russian guys beat up the Georgian meanies! Great job.

You always want to paint Russia as the victim. Here's an idea for Russia: withdraw your forces. Send them home in peace. Keep the status quo. Sell your cheap gas to Europe. Find a settlement in Eastern Ukraine. Negotiate in good faith. Find ways that Ukraine and Russia can jointly benefit from trade and economic development. Set the example that will make the other border countries realize how wrong they currently are about Russia.

 

[barbos]

Yes, those big macho Russian guys beat up the Georgian meanies! Great job.

You did not answer the question.

You always want to paint Russia as the victim. Here's an idea for Russia: withdraw your forces. Send them home in peace. Keep the status quo. Sell your cheap gas to Europe. Find a settlement in Eastern Ukraine. Negotiate in good faith. Find ways that Ukraine and Russia can jointly benefit from trade and economic development. Set the example that will make the other border countries realize how wrong they currently are about Russia.

Here is an idea. Follow your own advice.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yes, those big macho Russian guys beat up the Georgian meanies! Great job.

You did not answer the question.

You always want to paint Russia as the victim. Here's an idea for Russia: withdraw your forces. Send them home in peace. Keep the status quo. Sell your cheap gas to Europe. Find a settlement in Eastern Ukraine. Negotiate in good faith. Find ways that Ukraine and Russia can jointly benefit from trade and economic development. Set the example that will make the other border countries realize how wrong they currently are about Russia.

Here is an idea. Follow your own advice.

What is your question?

 

[Copernicus]

Now we have Ukraine with 40mil and really nothing to lose. Russia can't invade (too costly) The best Russia can do it to take breakaway regions and pay with Nord Stream 2. In doing so, Ukraine gets gas transit in perpetuity, rake up cost of it even higher than current 4x premium. US meanwhile can start selling their gas to Europe, and US politicians get contribution from fracking industry. LM is also get huge contracts for selling weapons to defend Europe from Russia. And all of that because some Ukrainian girl wanted better panties.

That's an interesting take on how one Russian views the power struggle between Russia and the West. US policy is to oppose Nord Stream 2, because addiction to Russian energy will likely result in future blackmail attempts by Russia to control European policies. However, barbos sees the value of Nord Stream as a funding mechanism for future invasions of neighboring territories.

Also, remember this repeated claim that Russia won't invade because it would be "too costly". The Russian military is roughly 900,000 strong against Ukraine's 200,000--almost 5 to 1 advantage. Russia now rings Ukraine with about 200,000 better armed and trained troops, the biggest military buildup in Europe since WWII, and it is mostly positioned in a battle-ready posture. Alleged provocative "attacks" by Ukraine into Russian-held Donbas are reported in the Russian press, while the so-called "separatists" continually shell Ukrainian positions. There have been over 2,000 recorded ceasefire violations from the Russian side without any retaliation yet by the Ukrainian side. Oil is at $90 a barrel. Can Russia afford not to invade? Just draw down the massive buildup and go home? What do you think?

And don't forget an important date--Tuesday, February 22. That is the anniversary of Putin-loving Viktor Yanukovych being booted from office by the Maidan Revolution. It's not a Wednesday. It is the day after Ukraine celebrates its  Revolution of Dignity holiday. So the 21st and 22nd have special significance for Vladimir Putin.

 

[ZiprHead]

Yes, those big macho Russian guys beat up the Georgian meanies! Great job.

You did not answer the question.

You didn't ask one.

 

[Copernicus]

And don't forget an important date--Tuesday, February 22. That is the anniversary of Putin-loving Viktor Yanukovych being booted from office by the Maidan Revolution. It's not a Wednesday. It is the day after Ukraine celebrates its

Revolution of Dignity holiday. So the 21st and 22nd have special significance for Vladimir Putin.

Correction: That holiday is celebrated in November, which marks the anniversary of the beginning of the protests on the Maidan. February 22 is the day we need to worry about most in terms of when the invasion will start. That would be Putin's way of making clear the real reason for the invasion, although I'm sure that the Russian media will hype whatever pretext of Ukrainian aggression that they can concoct. The fact that barbos simply swallowed the claims in Russian media about Ukrainian provocations in Donetsk is an indication of how many Russians will see it.

 

[skepticalbip]

Maybe the E.U. should have massed a few hundred thousand E.U. troops and equipment along the Russian borders in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland. They could explain the mobilization to Putin as nothing but just a military exercise (Putin's stated reason for Russian troops along the Ukrainian boarder).

That is if the E.U. really does want to dissuade Russian expansionism. With the majority of Russian military on the other side of the country, Putin may have decided that his invading the Ukraine may be a bad idea.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Have been watching CNN and on one of the short excerpt they showed a house with gas pipeline burning, saying it was result of russian "separatists" shelling Ukraine controlled territory.
.....

Then clicked on some russian news about this latest escalation. Guess what I see there? Yep, the full version of that video which clearly shows "separatists" in clearly marked uniform storming that house. The Text explains - ukrainian millitary were caught on separatist controlled territory and were returning fire from that house.

Need to double check if it's the same house/video.

OK, false alarm, different houses. But Ukrainians did invade "separatist" controlled land.

The "news" you watched said Ukrainians invaded. That doesn't make it so.

Staged provocations are common in such situations, take all such reports with a whole bag of salt, not merely a grain of it. Putin is pretending that Ukraine is starting the war when in reality they have absolutely no reason to do so.

 

[crazyfingers]

Where is Hermione Granger when you need her?

 

[Thomas II]

Ukrainian President Zelensky addresses the security conference in Munich. (The English translation is a bit jumbled at times, as the interpreter struggles to keep up with him.) He made several references to the Budapest Memo and mentioned that Ukraine had given up its nuclear weapons in return for assurances about maintaining its sovereignty and security. He is calling one last time for the countries that signed it to meet, but that isn't going to happen. In the end, he refers to the Ukrainians who were recently killed and three young children who suddenly found themselves without a father. As we wait for Russia to unleash a war that Ukraine is certain to lose, that tragedy will repeat itself in catastrophic proportion.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Everyone should watch the Gravitas video. I'd be interested in barbos's take but I doubt he'll watch it.

 

[Copernicus]

Apparently, the US government believes that Russian commanders have received orders to invade. I suspect he waited so long so that he could begin on the anniversary of Yanukovych's ouster by the Maidan revolutionaries. They aren't moving yet, but my guess is that the orders are to go in on February 22.


U.S. has intel that Russian commanders have orders to proceed with Ukraine invasion

 

[Ford]

American right wing: "There's no invasion! Why is everyone freaking out? This is no big deal!"

Ukrainians in Crimea: "Really?"

 

[barbos]

Yes, those big macho Russian guys beat up the Georgian meanies! Great job.

You did not answer the question.

You always want to paint Russia as the victim. Here's an idea for Russia: withdraw your forces. Send them home in peace. Keep the status quo. Sell your cheap gas to Europe. Find a settlement in Eastern Ukraine. Negotiate in good faith. Find ways that Ukraine and Russia can jointly benefit from trade and economic development. Set the example that will make the other border countries realize how wrong they currently are about Russia.

Here is an idea. Follow your own advice.

What is your question?

it WAS about Georgia. So what is your answer?

 

[barbos]

Ukrainian President Zelensky addresses the security conference in Munich. (The English translation is a bit jumbled at times, as the interpreter struggles to keep up with him.) He made several references to the Budapest Memo and mentioned that Ukraine had given up its nuclear weapons in return for assurances about maintaining its sovereignty and security. He is calling one last time for the countries that signed it to meet, but that isn't going to happen. In the end, he refers to the Ukrainians who were recently killed and three young children who suddenly found themselves without a father. As we wait for Russia to unleash a war that Ukraine is certain to lose, that tragedy will repeat itself in catastrophic proportion.

posting videos without full transcript is against rules here

 

[barbos]

Everyone should watch the Gravitas video. I'd be interested in barbos's take but I doubt he'll watch it.

That's ironic, coming from people who did not watch any of the videos I posted.

 

[skepticalbip]

American right wing: "There's no invasion! Why is everyone freaking out? This is no big deal!"

Ukrainians in Crimea: "Really?"

Where did that come from? I haven't seen any talking head in U.S. media either on the right or left who isn't predicting an imminent Russian invasion.

I have seen Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, say that there wasn't going to be an invasion... probably an attempt to keep his citizens calmer.

My question is why so many people think it is a problem the U.S. should be more concerned about than the member states of the E.U. are?

 

[barbos]

Everyone should watch the Gravitas video. I'd be interested in barbos's take but I doubt he'll watch it.

I have looked through. What am I supposed to learn from it?
Seriously what is so enlightening about that video?
It's mostly correct. In one place she proudly quotes statistics about 70% ukrainians against Russia. Crashing majority. But I have already commented on that. Think about the rest 30%. Russia is so bad and the West is so united...... except 30% of Ukraine itself.....

Also I did not see her mentioning ukrainian fascists and and antisemites. Must have skipped it somewhere.

 

[skepticalbip]

Everyone should watch the Gravitas video. I'd be interested in barbos's take but I doubt he'll watch it.

I have looked through. What am I supposed to learn from it?
Seriously what is so enlightening about that video?
It's mostly correct. In one place she proudly quotes statistics about 70% ukrainians against Russia. Crashing majority. But I have already commented on that. Think about the rest 30%. Russia is so bad and the West is so united...... except 30% of Ukraine itself.....

Also I did see he mentioning ukrainian fascists and and antisemites. Must have skipped it somewhere.

You ignore that is an internal Ukrainian problem. The Quebecois in Canada have in the past tried to declare independence from Canada. The fact that they speak French does not mean that France has the right to invade Canada and annex Quebec... even considering that Quebec is part of the territory once owned by France.

 

[barbos]

My question is why so many people think it is a problem the U.S. should be more concerned about than the E.U. is?

I answered this already. Because american neocons need stable employment/income.
They need jobs and books sales, they need to feel important again, they want to be on TV.