How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

Reporting from Russia early in the war showed wide support for Putin and the war. Russian patriotism is no different than any other.

All those objectors rounded up and taken to jail for protesting the war may have some objections to your characterization.

 

[barbos]

But it's not attrition of the army, but of the weapons.

Well, UK has 40 tanks left and collective West is out of 155mm shells.
And yes, West is out of ukrainians.

I do agree Russia's back is against the wall but we didn't put it there, the wall is entirely of your own making

Nope, it's your making. You could have had Ukraine in neutral status just fine, like Austria. But that was not the plan, you wanted this war.

 

[barbos]

kravietz 🦇 (@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)

#Ukraine incursion into #Kursk oblast’ had one interesting added benefit, which was obtaining access to secret FSB archives in Sudzha. FSB was evacuating in such haste that they did not manage to d...

agora.echelon.pl

#Ukraine incursion into #Kursk oblast’ had one interesting added benefit, which was obtaining access to secret FSB archives in Sudzha. FSB was evacuating in such haste that they did not manage to destroy their archives, which were acquired intact and now journalist Dmytro “Apostol” Karpenko is publishing some of them.

As Estonian analyst Artur Rehi wrote on Twitter, the most interesting thing about the documents is the unbelievable amount of bullshit produced from the very bottom to the very top of FSB. The service whose main purpose is to collect accurate, actionable intelligence internally and abroad is mass scale producing fantasies, certifying them as “reliable intelligence” and inventing whole massive plots, on a scale that would probably beat Hollywood screenplay writers union.

One of the cases is based on confidential reports from agent “Mizer” who, according to the FSB document is a 1973 born male, living in Mokrushino in Kursk oblast’ whose “operational value” is that he “can travel to subjects of Russian Federation, specifically Donetsk People’s Republic” due to the job he’s doing.

Attached is his hand-written report where he describes a rather delusional story of “youth camps” where ominous “Azov” soldiers train them into becoming assassins, all supervised by “instructors from France, UK, Belarus and Latvia” etc etc. The report is described as “reliable information”, whereas any sane person would ask themselves how this knowledge could be acquired by a person that is only allowed to travel to DPR… which is certainly quite far and isolated from all the places where the “camps” are described to be happening. At the same time, the report very much looks like it’s just rambling compiled from random stories taken from Russian TV, which were likely based on other such reports etc etc.

So maybe Barbos' ideas on NATO starting it are based in FSB garbage rather than Putin propaganda.

No, my ideas are based on western sources such as Merkel, french, american think tanks, Nuland.

 

[bilby]

The British Army had 408 Challenger 2 tanks delivered into service between 1994 and 2002.

Losses to date are three: One was destroyed in Basra, two have been destroyed in the current Russo-Ukrainian War, one in Ukraine, the other in Kursk.

Fourteen Challenger 2's (including the two destroyed in the current war), were donated to Ukraine from the British stock of 407 machines.

Leaving a total of 40 remaining, apparently.

Do they not teach arithmetic in Russia?

By my count, the British Army have 393 Challenger 2 tanks left, and the Ground Forces of Ukraine have 12.

148 of the British Army's 393 Challenger 2's are slated for upgrade to Challenger 3, in a major refit by Rheinmetall, with the first upgraded tanks expected in service by the end of 2025, which includes replacement of the entire turret, upgrades to the armour, and a new 130mm smoothbore main armament.

 

[barbos]

GB has 40 operating tanks. Operating word here is ... "operating".
And all GB soldiers can fill the football stadium, one stadium.

Anyway, US postponed (for 2 weeks) the decision to let GB to strike Russia.
GB will live another 2 weeks. It would be a shame if something happens to it after that, I am a big fan of Doctor Who, after all.

 

[aupmanyav]

Tell that to Putin.

The poor boy had to, because of NATO's machinations. His army failed him. The conflict was on from 2014.

 

[barbos]

Another one was signed into ukro-wehrmacht:

Still no reaction from the usual defenders of human rights.
Imagine if it was in US and the guy was black.
But this is Ukraine and the guy probably speaks russian, so it's OK.
By the way, this is Мукачево, Hungarian part of "Ukraine", so there is a chance that he speaks hungarian.
The guy te behind camera is cursing them in ..... russian.

 

[barbos]

Pentagon Talking Head made Ukraine Russia again:

 

[Rhea]

WTF is ukro-wehrmacht?

Really? you don't know? really?

If you had read my message before responding, you would see what was meant. Obviously, you missed it by either not understanding or not bothering to read. Here; I’ll repost what is relevant

impossible to discern whether you are always talking about every-ukrainian-at-all-times, or a specific person, or a government agency, or someone from the past or the present or a fantasy that you made up.

Yah, none of us know who you are actually talking about.

But if you want to remain the incomprehensible shouting person in the corner, then you be you.

 

[SLD]

Another one was signed into ukro-wehrmacht:

Still no reaction from the usual defenders of human rights.
Imagine if it was in US and the guy was black.
But this is Ukraine and the guy probably speaks russian, so it's OK.
By the way, this is Мукачево, Hungarian part of "Ukraine", so there is a chance that he speaks hungarian.
The guy te behind camera is cursing them in ..... russian.

You don’t know what this is. Was this guy an army deserter? So what? Arrest him. Was he a draft dodger? So what? Arrest him. He has to obey his country’s laws. Is force acceptable in making an arrest? Absolutely.

If there is one eternal truth of all military operations, it is that discipline, sometimes harsh discipline, is fundamental to success.

 

[ZiprHead]

Another one was signed into ukro-wehrmacht:

Still no reaction from the usual defenders of human rights.
Imagine if it was in US and the guy was black.
But this is Ukraine and the guy probably speaks russian, so it's OK.
By the way, this is Мукачево, Hungarian part of "Ukraine", so there is a chance that he speaks hungarian.
The guy te behind camera is cursing them in ..... russian.

You don’t know what this is. Was this guy an army deserter? So what? Arrest him. Was he a draft dodger? So what? Arrest him. He has to obey his country’s laws. Is force acceptable in making an arrest? Absolutely.

If there is one eternal truth of all military operations, it is that discipline, sometimes harsh discipline, is fundamental to success.

As if the Russian soldiers fighting and dying had a choice.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why not? Because you make no fucking sense.

WTF is ukro-wehrmacht?
No one knows who you are talking about.

But it feels so good for Babs to say it. And I think he gets paid.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

So maybe Barbos' ideas on NATO starting it are based in FSB garbage rather than Putin propaganda.

Those are the same thing.

 

[steve_bank]

An EU paper on Russian military.

I can;t find a clear statement of any Russian Federation member's military obligation to Russia. Can Putin conscript from the Federation outside of Russia?

The Russian Federation – Military service

The European Union Agency for Asylum - EUAA is an agency of the European Union mandated with supporting Member States in applying the package of EU laws that governs asylum and international protection.

euaa.europa.eu

 

[Henry-Finland]

How about this:
Video (Russian soldiers tell about the war):
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1639390679670374403

Russian soldiers from the "Storm" unit, consisting of both convicts (and likely some mobilised), formed by Russian MoD, published a video revealing they were purposefully sent into slaughter during the assault of Vodyane while blocking units prevented their retreat. The unit consisting of 161 people initially, has only several dozen men left alive. They claim that soldiers are being "taxed", and those who refused to pay are sent straight to the zero line, and if they get wounded, they'll be removed from hospitals with unhealed wounds and sent back.

 

[steve_bank]

Sounds like Stalingrad and the WWII Eastern Front. A horrible war of attrition.

 

[Henry-Finland]

"United States: In total, they have just over 45,000 armored fighting vehicles in operation, along with 2,640 main battle tanks (MBTs), and 12,800 vehicles in storage, of which 2,000 are main battle tanks."

"I found out from public sources that the US army has 2,509 Abrams in various versions, with an additional 3,700 in storage."

"There are around 3k-4k. Why? Because they are OLD. They are from the 80s, and massively inferior to almost everything being fielded. They are armed with 105mm guns and outdated technology and targeting systems. If you were one who thought the T-72 was bad, it would run rings around the oldest M1s. Modernized T-62s could even compete with them, though the M1 likely would be superior. It would be expensive to even make them viable for use, not even talking about somehow getting them up to par with other tanks. The US doesn't need to spend the money to renovate them, for it has no need for them. They have enough tanks for their goals.
However, if they did need them, they are kept in just good enough shape so that there is a chance they could be fixed and brought into service. They are essentially just there in the event the US somehow ran out of tanks and needed more quickly."

 

[Henry-Finland]

"How many 155mm shells does the U.S. have in storage?

There are potentially four million 155-millimeter dual-purpose improved cluster munitions in storage in the United States. M483A1 and M864 DPICM rounds respectively scatter 88 or 72 grenade-size submunitions, each of which can kill or maim a soldier."

 

[Henry-Finland]

I have never understood this: Why not?

Updated Feb 14, 2024



"As Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its third year and Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress continue to withhold U.S. funding for Ukraine, Ukrainian artillery batteries are desperately low on ammunition.

Six months ago, Ukrainian batteries were firing as many as 6,000 shells a day and, in some sectors of the 600-mile front line, even matching Russians batteries’ own shellfire.

Today, four months after Republicans began blocking aid, the Ukrainians are firing just 2,000 shells a day. At the same time, the Russians—flush with shells from North Korea and Iran—are firing up as many as 10,000 shells a day.

That firepower disparity is the main reason why Russian forces are—admittedly at great cost—slowly advancing in and around the eastern city of Avdiivka, currently the locus of Russia’s winter offensive.

Given indicted ex-president Donald Trump’s cultish hold over the Republican Party and Trump’s longstanding affinity for authoritarian Russian leader Vladimir Putin, there’s seems to be little prospect of Biden getting much, or any, fresh funding for Ukraine now that Republicans hold a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

But that doesn’t mean Biden is powerless to help Ukraine. An under-appreciated U.S. law gives the president authority to sell at a discount, or even give away, any existing weapons the U.S. military declares excess to its needs."

Read more here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ne-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But it's not attrition of the army, but of the weapons.

Well, UK has 40 tanks left and collective West is out of 155mm shells.
And yes, West is out of ukrainians.

Well, Russia should control Ukraine by now then. *checks online*

Nope, not yet.

Meanwhile Ukraine's incursion into Russia is starting to show me a form for a particular plan. If Russia wanted, they could mow it down, but they don't seem to get it yet.