How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[fromderinside]

How about all of us cite our 'source data'.

From the  Mind of Mencia.

 

[TV and credit cards]

How the Finns Beat Back Russian Propaganda

A timely article with the return of *barbos.
Here it is in it's entirety:

In fewer than three months Finland did the unthinkable, abandoning decades of military neutrality. The dramatic turnaround demonstrates how the Russian propaganda machine has turned out not to be a dangerous brown bear, but rather a squawking, ineffective lame duck.

This Russian failure tells us much about both the power and limits of digital disinformation - and how to combat it.

First, Russia’s information war targeted domestic audiences. Russian citizens live in their own Kremlin-controlled media bubble. It sells right-wing nationalist lies, drawing on a deep reservoir of historical memories about Western invasions and painting the Ukrainians as Nazis. Attempts to use these messages to influence foreign audiences lack credibility.

Finland is a particularly tough target for disinformation. We long have ranked near the top of most indexes, not just in education but also press freedom, gender equality, social trust - and happiness. It’s difficult to gain traction by painting our successful country as a failure.

History courses teach Finns how Russia fomented a civil war after the country’s 1917 declaration of independence or how Russia attacked us in 1939. More recently, we watched with dismay as Russia attempted to export misinformation about issues such as immigrants flooding into Finland, the European Union ripping off Finns to pay for profligate southern Europeans, and NATO acting as an aggressor rather than a defensive alliance. For almost all Finns, stories about Finnish authorities taking custody of children from Russian families in Finland ring false.

Second, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government flooded the Internet with well-calculated messages that dominated Finland’s media space. Finns compared Zelensky’s straight talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s puffed-up lies. They listened to youngsters singing folk songs for peace. They read reports of Russian war crimes. They saw Ukrainian pictures of destroyed Russian tanks.

And third, just as important, Finland’s government began building strong information defenses. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, President Sauli Niinisto called on every Finn to take responsibility for the fight against false information. A year later, Finland brought in American experts to advise officials on how to recognize fake news.

The country’s education system, long ranked at the top of international comparisons, was reformed to emphasize media literacy. A Finnish fact-checking agency Faktabaari (FactBar) developed a much admired digital literacy “toolkit” for elementary to high school students.

After my former staffer at Finnish Broadcasting, Jessikka Aro, conducted an open-source investigation on Russia-linked disinformation campaigns, she became the target of a Russian smear campaign, accused of being everything from a CIA spy to a drug dealer. Two pro-Putin operatives were convicted of defamation.

We need now to go on the offensive. Western media have jump-started to offer high-quality neutral journalism and reporting in the Russian language. Examples of this are the Finnish and Estonian public service broadcasters and the leading dailies in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. Their independent reporting is followed by many Russians and is causing cracks in the Kremlin facade. These reports are not propaganda. They are independent truth-telling operations.

As a NATO member Finns will continue to be pragmatic. We want to be a good neighbor to Russia. We will respect Russia as our neighbor. But it will take time. Trust in Russia will need a generation or two to be re-built.

The Finnish approach to both the physical and digital information threat is built on solid cornerstones: credible military capability and deep integration with the West. Our NATO membership train is on a fast track, and we expect a vigorous reaction from Russia. There could be an increase in military activity, cyber-attacks, and extensive propaganda warfare. But I’m not worried. We’re prepared.

*For entertainment purposes only.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Now that the $40B aid package is a go, Ukrainian forces should be getting some longer range systems like the M142 HIMARS, Harpoon, and Naval Strike Missile. Training time is two weeks and is likely already taking place.

 

[lpetrich]

Finland's parliament votes yes to NATO | Reuters
Yes 188, no 8, absent(?) 3

Opponents to the application included some lawmakers from the Left Alliance, part of Finland's five-party coalition, among them Markus Mustajarvi who challenged the decision with a counter proposal resulting in it being put to the vote.

"Our border would become the border between the military alliance and Russia. New tensions would not be a risk only during the application process but rather a new and permanent condition of our foreign and security policy," he said.

Early on Tuesday, the foreign affairs committee decided to join the state leadership in proposing to parliament that the Nordic country should apply for membership.

"Having heard a very large number of experts and having received the opinions of 10 (parliamentary) committees, the foreign affairs committee agrees with the government that Finland should apply for membership in NATO. This decision is unanimous," chairman Jussi Halla-aho told reporters.

I can't find any vote for Sweden.

 

[Jayjay]

Jayjay,
Whataboutism much?

No. Just showing your inconsistency in dealing with Ukrainian "nazis" and the Russian "nazis". I don't actually care that the Wagner group founder has SS tattoos, or that the Russian deputy prime minister had political rallies with swastika-carrying nationalist groups. What matters is the evil shit they have done, not their tattoos.

I only recognize Rogozin 20-25 years ago.
The rest is first, not known. Second, definitely not in any commanding position and I highly doubt are even in Donbas right now. Whereas your nazis were murdering russian and ukrainian population just a few weeks ago. Not to mention 8 years since 2014. And they ARE in commanding positions. They are 100% fucking nazis with swastika and Hitler tattoos and are in Ukrainan armed forces. Russian army does not have any of that shit. Moreover, unlike your governments Russian does not condone that shit. Yes, your governments literally say "nazis are good because they fight russians"

Nobody is saying that. Azov's nazi and far-right connotations are well known and published in the media, nobody in the west thinks that it's not problematic. But it's a civilian problem, that every country has. In war time, what kind of politics or tattoos you have don't matter. Russia is the aggressor, and is committing horrendous atrocities in the territories it occupies. Anyone who fights them is doing a good deed. The regular Russian army on the other hand has committed far worse atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere, than the Azov in its entire existence.

Rogozin early on was a nationalist, so was........ Navalny. Now-days, as I explained to you before, nationalist movement is more fringe than in Finland.

No, it's not. The openly nazi movement that brandishes swastikas and idolizes Hitler is fringe, but Russia is most certainly extremely nationalist, up to the highest level of government.

Speaking of nazis. Early in the conflict, russian refugees from ukrainian controlled Eastern Ukraine who ended up in Russia would often fight with refugees from DNR/LNR saying that Russia attacked them. After a while and a lot of new refugees from ukrainian controlled territories had came in, all these fights stopped, because newly arrived refugees explained to them in no uncertain terms that it is Ukrainian army who is bombing and murdering their own population. Nobody in Ukraine actually believes western propaganda garbage.

So let's see... refugees from Ukraine who were forced into concentration filtration camps were told "in no uncertain terms" by their captors that they should not blame Russia for bombing them, and they magically changed their opinion and saw the light!

You do realize what that sounds like?

 

[Jayjay]

Finland's parliament votes yes to NATO | Reuters
Yes 188, no 8, absent(?) 3

Opponents to the application included some lawmakers from the Left Alliance, part of Finland's five-party coalition, among them Markus Mustajarvi who challenged the decision with a counter proposal resulting in it being put to the vote.

"Our border would become the border between the military alliance and Russia. New tensions would not be a risk only during the application process but rather a new and permanent condition of our foreign and security policy," he said.

Early on Tuesday, the foreign affairs committee decided to join the state leadership in proposing to parliament that the Nordic country should apply for membership.

"Having heard a very large number of experts and having received the opinions of 10 (parliamentary) committees, the foreign affairs committee agrees with the government that Finland should apply for membership in NATO. This decision is unanimous," chairman Jussi Halla-aho told reporters.

I can't find any vote for Sweden.

Not sure if they even had a vote? I think the process is different in Sweden, and doesn't require a vote in the parliament. Maybe @DrZoidberg can enlighten us.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Finland's parliament votes yes to NATO | Reuters
Yes 188, no 8, absent(?) 3

Opponents to the application included some lawmakers from the Left Alliance, part of Finland's five-party coalition, among them Markus Mustajarvi who challenged the decision with a counter proposal resulting in it being put to the vote.

"Our border would become the border between the military alliance and Russia. New tensions would not be a risk only during the application process but rather a new and permanent condition of our foreign and security policy," he said.

Early on Tuesday, the foreign affairs committee decided to join the state leadership in proposing to parliament that the Nordic country should apply for membership.

"Having heard a very large number of experts and having received the opinions of 10 (parliamentary) committees, the foreign affairs committee agrees with the government that Finland should apply for membership in NATO. This decision is unanimous," chairman Jussi Halla-aho told reporters.

I can't find any vote for Sweden.

Not sure if they even had a vote? I think the process is different in Sweden, and doesn't require a vote in the parliament. Maybe @DrZoidberg can enlighten us.

Both Sweden and Finland are a bit strange this way. On paper, people's constitutuional rights are quite weak. Our leaders and police can do a bit like they want. They don’t need to care about what people want. It wasn't until 1998 we put in place a function to try police misconduct. Before this it wasn't possible. But the police still decide themselves punishments. This is just insane.

So if there's nothing to stop Sweden from becoming an authoritarian police state, why doesn't it happen? Great question. I don’t think anyone can answer that. It's probably got something to do with the culture.

By tradition our leaders have a lot of referendums and include voters. But they never have to when it comes to military matters.

Sweden also has a very high trust in politicians. So if they do stuff without consulting the people, Swedes are most often cool with it. To an outsider it's a truly baffling cultural artefact.

NATO is also a bit special. Sweden and Finland have, right from the start, in practice been NATO members. There's now declassified Swedish government documents from the 50'ies and 60'ies that spell this out. Our neutrality was something we just said not to annoy USSR.

Since WW2 the Swedish secret police have automatically given the CIA anything they want immediately, even when CIA has asked for things violating the Swedish constitution. This only stopped after 9/11 when we started handing over people the CIA promptly murdered in Egypt. Being this submissive to USA was never official Swedish policy. We just did it anyway. Looking back, it's very strange. And says a lot about how afraid we were of USSR.

Swedes know this of course. We know that our non-alliance has always been a complete sham. I think that's why nobody is reacting against it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Another fun detail was that there has been "scandals" in Sweden when Swedish military and police were caught conspiring with USA and NATO. The Swedish government denied it every time. But when the documents were declassified all the accusations proved true.

The Swedish people's high trust in their government is very hard to explain

 

[Harry Bosch]

Speaking of nazis. Early in the conflict, russian refugees from ukrainian controlled Eastern Ukraine who ended up in Russia would often fight with refugees from DNR/LNR saying that Russia attacked them. After a while and a lot of new refugees from ukrainian controlled territories had came in, all these fights stopped, because newly arrived refugees explained to them in no uncertain terms that it is Ukrainian army who is bombing and murdering their own population. Nobody in Ukraine actually believes western propaganda garbage.

Sorry, but ignorance is no excuse. I feel bad that you don't have access to western news. But your love for Russia and Putler has clouded your common sense. And you're in denial. It's quite stunning that you'd allow your press to convince you that a group of people would actually bomb themselves (to what end?)!! But regardless. The Russians are responsible for this war. And your side will be held accountable for the crimes your side is committing. Putler is dying of cancer. I assume that once he's dead, that Russian military will return home (hopefully take all the Russian dead soldiers with you also). And then the ports can be reopened so that food can be exported again. And then Ukraine will start to rebuild. The west will help Ukraine build. I wouldn't expect the sanctions to be reversed until your side agrees to reparations for the crimes your side committed in Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

Putler is dying of cancer. I assume that once he's dead, that Russian military will return home (hopefully take all the Russian dead soldiers with you also).

The next guy is likely to be worse.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Putler is dying of cancer. I assume that once he's dead, that Russian military will return home (hopefully take all the Russian dead soldiers with you also).

The next guy is likely to be worse.

Maybe. But he'll have far less resources to play with. Far less weapons. He'll have far less allies. And he'll have a country heading into bankruptcy. Eventually no one will want the products that Russia can sell (gas and oil). And he'll have enemies in Ukraine that Russia created rebuilding and with a hate for Russia that will last generations. I don't think that the future bodes well for Russia.

 

[Elixir]

While @barbos has rendered himself NWRT, it is interesting that they let him show back up here.
I wonder if he still thinks Russia won’t invade Ukraine. I see they’re now saying they don’t want Odesa, so that’s probably the next target.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Jayjay,
Whataboutism much?

No. Just showing your inconsistency in dealing with Ukrainian "nazis" and the Russian "nazis". I don't actually care that the Wagner group founder has SS tattoos, or that the Russian deputy prime minister had political rallies with swastika-carrying nationalist groups. What matters is the evil shit they have done, not their tattoos.

I only recognize Rogozin 20-25 years ago.
The rest is first, not known. Second, definitely not in any commanding position and I highly doubt are even in Donbas right now. Whereas your nazis were murdering russian and ukrainian population just a few weeks ago. Not to mention 8 years since 2014. And they ARE in commanding positions. They are 100% fucking nazis with swastika and Hitler tattoos and are in Ukrainan armed forces. Russian army does not have any of that shit. Moreover, unlike your governments Russian does not condone that shit. Yes, your governments literally say "nazis are good because they fight russians"

Nobody is saying that. Azov's nazi and far-right connotations are well known and published in the media, nobody in the west thinks that it's not problematic. But it's a civilian problem, that every country has. In war time, what kind of politics or tattoos you have don't matter. Russia is the aggressor, and is committing horrendous atrocities in the territories it occupies. Anyone who fights them is doing a good deed. The regular Russian army on the other hand has committed far worse atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere, than the Azov in its entire existence.

Rogozin early on was a nationalist, so was........ Navalny. Now-days, as I explained to you before, nationalist movement is more fringe than in Finland.

No, it's not. The openly nazi movement that brandishes swastikas and idolizes Hitler is fringe, but Russia is most certainly extremely nationalist, up to the highest level of government.

Speaking of nazis. Early in the conflict, russian refugees from ukrainian controlled Eastern Ukraine who ended up in Russia would often fight with refugees from DNR/LNR saying that Russia attacked them. After a while and a lot of new refugees from ukrainian controlled territories had came in, all these fights stopped, because newly arrived refugees explained to them in no uncertain terms that it is Ukrainian army who is bombing and murdering their own population. Nobody in Ukraine actually believes western propaganda garbage.

So let's see... refugees from Ukraine who were forced into concentration filtration camps were told "in no uncertain terms" by their captors that they should not blame Russia for bombing them, and they magically changed their opinion and saw the light!

You do realize what that sounds like?

By coincidence, I just listened to a reporter interviewing a Russian speaking Estonian woman who parroted exactly what Barbos said above. That Ukraine is bombing itself. We are arming Ukraine with the weapons that Ukraine is using to destroy their own cities. Unbelievable. And she has access to western media. In fact, Russian TV is currently banned in Estonia. The interview was on a BBC podcast, "The documentary" dated May 18. Putler has created a sick demented cult in Russia in which it appears, that people will believe in despite common logic and facts. To have a large powerful country with people who are so deluded is truly scary. The west is going to be at war with Russia for a long time....

 

[Harry Bosch]

While @barbos has rendered himself NWRT, it is interesting that they let him show back up here.
I wonder if he still thinks Russia won’t invade Ukraine. I see they’re now saying they don’t want Odesa, so that’s probably the next target.

You're probably correct. If the Russians were really smart, they'd help the west in sending more weapons to Ukraine so that the Ukrainians could further hammer Odsea.

 

[Elixir]

The west is going to be at war with Russia for a long time....

… unless Trump manages to cheat his way back into power. Putler is probably hoping to hang on by his fingernails until that happens. If/when it does, Russia will become the good guy, while the Ukranian and American public will be the villains, along with the people of any remaining democracy. NATO will be gone, the EU will fragment and the Global Dictator Community will rejoice.

 

[steve_bank]

The west is going to be at war with Russia for a long time....

… unless Trump manages to cheat his way back into power. Putler is probably hoping to hang on by his fingernails until that happens. If/when it does, Russia will become the good guy, while the Ukranian and American public will be the villains, along with the people of any remaining democracy. NATO will be gone, the EU will fragment and the Global Dictator Community will rejoice.

I had not thought about that but it makes sense. A good insight.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I wonder if Barbos is literally working for the Russian propaganda departement. It would explain his continual support for Russia

 

[steve_bank]

I wonder if Barbos is literally working for the Russian propaganda departement. It would explain his continual support for Russia

Years back after an exchange with Barbos on the issue of argression against the USA I had the distinct impression he at least had some connection to the Russian government, could be informal. He was articulate and rational sounding like he was echoing a policy.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I wonder if Barbos is literally working for the Russian propaganda departement. It would explain his continual support for Russia

Why do you think that? I'm not seeing evidence that his views are in the minority. I hear interview after interview of Russians (some in eastern Europe) agreeing that the Ukrainians are attacking themselves. The BBC interviews are very interesting. I think that it's a mistake to make many assumptions of what the Russian people believe. We don't have any honest way to gauge their majority opinion. However, to assume that the Russian people all want peace, and that the war will crumble after the Putler government collapses, is dangerous. It creates complacency. I think that there's a very good chance that a majority of Russians want to restore Mother Russia through war. And the west should prepare for the worst. Very much hope that I'm wrong by the way.....

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

By coincidence, I just listened to a reporter interviewing a Russian speaking Estonian woman who parroted exactly what Barbos said above. That Ukraine is bombing itself. We are arming Ukraine with the weapons that Ukraine is using to destroy their own cities. Unbelievable. And she has access to western media. In fact, Russian TV is currently banned in Estonia. The interview was on a BBC podcast, "The documentary" dated May 18. Putler has created a sick demented cult in Russia in which it appears, that people will believe in despite common logic and facts. To have a large powerful country with people who are so deluded is truly scary. The west is going to be at war with Russia for a long time....

Russia is currently a Stalinist state. For me that explains everything. There were thousands of protestors arrested across Russia when Ukraine was invaded. They were treated as criminals and threatened with long prison sentences. What else should we expect from the Russian population given such authoritarian methods? There are plenty of kooks in this country and we're a functioning democracy.