How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

I think the key was Medvedchuk. He's Putin's pal and a valuable hostage. I wonder though, how many Azov fighters did Russia keep? Surely they wouldn't release all of them, after all that talk about them being nazis and deserving death penalties.

The low number of prisoners released by Ukraine implies that Ukraine doesn't have very many POWs. Not thousands, or even hundreds.

 

[Patooka]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

 

[Jayjay]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

It's a common trope, which dates back to at least WW1.

Nazis used the phrase "Germany will fight to the last German, Britain will fight to the last Frenchman" to demoralize the French and deride England's lackluster help to France. Just like Russia is now using the phrase to demoralize Ukraine and its allies. Not surprising really that Russia is dusting off old Nazi propaganda.

 

[Patooka]

It's a common trope, which dates back to at least WW1.

Nazis used the phrase "Germany will fight to the last German, Britain will fight to the last Frenchman" to demoralize the French and deride England's lackluster help to France. Just like Russia is now using the phrase to demoralize Ukraine and its allies. Not surprising really that Russia is dusting off old Nazi propaganda.

I get that. I'm asking when anyone from NATO made such a statement publicly. Or even implied such a statement. Or, to mix metaphors, declared Ukraine a hill to die on.

I have complete confidence Barbos can show me where that happened, as he claimed.

 

[ZiprHead]

I have complete confidence Barbos can show me where that happened, as he claimed.

YouTube, of course.

 

[SLD]

Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them | CNN

Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.

www.cnn.com

good analysis. Putin can’t equip 300,000 reservists anytime soon. He can maybe give them an AK and send them to the front line, without helmets or armor, but that will only result in further defeats. Putin is also weaponizing people who want nothing to do with his stupid war.

There’s also reports he’s making tactical decisions for commanders in the field. Worked out well for the last national leader who did that.

 

[steve_bank]

I expected we can listen to their communications.

Russia's military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine's counteroffensive, US sources say

Russia's military is divided over how best to counter Ukraine's unexpected battlefield advances this month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, as Moscow has found itself on the defensive in both the east and the south.

www.cnn.com

Russia’s military is divided over how best to counter Ukraine’s unexpected battlefield advances this month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, as Moscow has found itself on the defensive in both the east and the south

Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said– a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia’s war from the beginning.

Intelligence intercepts have captured Russian officers arguing among themselves and complaining to friends and relatives back home about decision-making from Moscow, one of these sources told CNN.

And there are significant disagreements on strategy with military leaders struggling to agree on where to focus their efforts to shore up defensive lines, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence said.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

He's a madman with nukes. How does the world best deal with a madman with nukes? That's the question.

If North Korea invaded the south and threatened to use nukes what would we do? What would our military do? Obviously we'd do the same thing we're doing in Ukraine because that ball is not in our court. When Kruschev was ratcheting up the pressure In Cuba Kennedy simply said that the full force of the United States would be brought to bear in case of an incident. Defcon was raised. I remember, it was scary.

Today things are different in Ukraine. It's not just the U.S. but all free democracies and more, including China and India. If Putin wishes to commit suicide he will succeed. The truth is he is not going to nuke anyone. We should act like he might but know that he will not.

 

[steve_bank]

When the JFK WH tapes were released in the 90s there were hawks like Curtis LeMay(Strategic Air Command) wanting to start a nuclear war to settle the east west issue.

The same on the Russian side. Khrushchev faced a possible coup if he negotiated.

As I see it Putin is a madman. He is dong just what Hitler did at the end.

In contrast I think North Korea is relatively rational. They have an orderly society with those at the top living well. I just don't see NK invading the South. China is also a restraint China said if NK intimates hostilities they will stay out of it.

My guess is we have subs parked near NK that can quickly devastate NK. Short flight time.


Would the Russian military obey a first strike nuclear attack on western nations? We would probably detect preparations.

In WWII the Brits cracked the German naval codes and made use of it judically to avoid tipping off the Germans.

I can only speculate how far we penetrate Russian communications.

 

[Elixir]

 

[SLD]

With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

He's a madman with nukes. How does the world best deal with a madman with nukes? That's the question.

If North Korea invaded the south and threatened to use nukes what would we do? What would our military do? Obviously we'd do the same thing we're doing in Ukraine because that ball is not in our court. When Kruschev was ratcheting up the pressure In Cuba Kennedy simply said that the full force of the United States would be brought to bear in case of an incident. Defcon was raised. I remember, it was scary.

Today things are different in Ukraine. It's not just the U.S. but all free democracies and more, including China and India. If Putin wishes to commit suicide he will succeed. The truth is he is not going to nuke anyone. We should act like he might but know that he will not.

South Korea is our ally, Ukraine is not. We would defend South Korea and destroy North Korea. We have no such option if nukes are used in Ukraine. They will be tactical level nukes, not strategic, and used against troops in a contained region.

I, for one, do not think he is bluffing. In fact, he’s backed into a corner, and that’s likely the only option he has. At this point, it’s a matter of personal survival, and he will order the use of nukes. The question is whether that will be a bridge too far his military and they will refuse the order and put him out.

 

[Jayjay]

Would the Russian military obey a first strike nuclear attack on western nations? We would probably detect preparations.

Russia wouldn't strike first at western nations. It would strike in Ukraine. Either Kyiv, or some smaller target to make a point. Then the ball is back in our court, and we can either call Putin's bluff or fold. And the response to a tactical nuclear strike doesn't have to be nuclear.

Let's say someone in the chain from the big red button on Putin's bathroom wall to the missile launch vehiche refuses orders. Nothing happens. We will never know it. But Putin will know, and will remove the people who refused orders and replace them with ones who do. And then push the button again. Only kind of dissent that can stop a nuclear launch is a coup where Putin is removed from power.

 

[Ford]

With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

He's a madman with nukes. How does the world best deal with a madman with nukes? That's the question.

If North Korea invaded the south and threatened to use nukes what would we do? What would our military do? Obviously we'd do the same thing we're doing in Ukraine because that ball is not in our court. When Kruschev was ratcheting up the pressure In Cuba Kennedy simply said that the full force of the United States would be brought to bear in case of an incident. Defcon was raised. I remember, it was scary.

Today things are different in Ukraine. It's not just the U.S. but all free democracies and more, including China and India. If Putin wishes to commit suicide he will succeed. The truth is he is not going to nuke anyone. We should act like he might but know that he will not.

South Korea is our ally, Ukraine is not. We would defend South Korea and destroy North Korea. We have no such option if nukes are used in Ukraine. They will be tactical level nukes, not strategic, and used against troops in a contained region.

I, for one, do not think he is bluffing. In fact, he’s backed into a corner, and that’s likely the only option he has. At this point, it’s a matter of personal survival, and he will order the use of nukes. The question is whether that will be a bridge too far his military and they will refuse the order and put him out.

There is also the question of whether or not they will work. Russians found out the hard way that some of their kit wasn't maintained very well, and in some cases were stripped for parts to be sold by corrupt folks. They also failed to achieve air superiority over a country with a relative handful of older aircraft. If their nuclear arsenal is as poorly maintained as their conventional arsenal, the nuke might land with a thud.

 

[Jayjay]

Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them | CNN

Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.

www.cnn.com

good analysis. Putin can’t equip 300,000 reservists anytime soon. He can maybe give them an AK and send them to the front line, without helmets or armor, but that will only result in further defeats. Putin is also weaponizing people who want nothing to do with his stupid war.

There’s also reports he’s making tactical decisions for commanders in the field. Worked out well for the last national leader who did that.

Mark Hertling also wrote recently a more in-depth description of his experiences with both Ukrainian and Russian armies since 2004:

I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.

The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.

www.thebulwark.com

 

[Jayjay]

With Putin saying he will use nuclear weapons does anyone doubt he is a madman?

He's a madman with nukes. How does the world best deal with a madman with nukes? That's the question.

If North Korea invaded the south and threatened to use nukes what would we do? What would our military do? Obviously we'd do the same thing we're doing in Ukraine because that ball is not in our court. When Kruschev was ratcheting up the pressure In Cuba Kennedy simply said that the full force of the United States would be brought to bear in case of an incident. Defcon was raised. I remember, it was scary.

Today things are different in Ukraine. It's not just the U.S. but all free democracies and more, including China and India. If Putin wishes to commit suicide he will succeed. The truth is he is not going to nuke anyone. We should act like he might but know that he will not.

South Korea is our ally, Ukraine is not. We would defend South Korea and destroy North Korea. We have no such option if nukes are used in Ukraine. They will be tactical level nukes, not strategic, and used against troops in a contained region.

I, for one, do not think he is bluffing. In fact, he’s backed into a corner, and that’s likely the only option he has. At this point, it’s a matter of personal survival, and he will order the use of nukes. The question is whether that will be a bridge too far his military and they will refuse the order and put him out.

There is also the question of whether or not they will work. Russians found out the hard way that some of their kit wasn't maintained very well, and in some cases were stripped for parts to be sold by corrupt folks. They also failed to achieve air superiority over a country with a relative handful of older aircraft. If their nuclear arsenal is as poorly maintained as their conventional arsenal, the nuke might land with a thud.

In that case I think they'll just say "it was just a warning". Or fire another one.

 

[SLD]

Coups in the Kremlin

What the history of Russia’s power struggles says about Putin’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

A good history of previous Kremlin Coups. But I wonder if a 1991 scenario is more likely. What if these demonstrations get further and further out of hand. What if the security forces find themselves overrun - even for just one case in an important city. It could snowball quickly. Putin has to be very aggressive in cracking these down but can he do it if they turn really large? If they get out of hand, all bets are off. At some point the security forces stop doing their job. They may not be enthusiastic supporters of this war either. They may have to go to Ukraine as well. At some point Putin is told he has to go. Maybe he’s given a dacha and immunity to soften the blow. Personally I hope he’s arrested or even worse.

 

[SLD]

From the Kremlin today: ”This week marks either the eve of our imminent victory, or the eve of nuclear war. I can’t see a third way.”

It’s obviously not going to be their imminent victory. I really think they’ve boxed themselves in to using nuclear weapons. If they don’t then they lose all credibility. So Putin will indeed likely order such, but perhaps not for several weeks and depending on what happens on the ground in Ukraine. It may take some time to get the weapons deployed as well. But I see him issuing the order before the end of next month.

 

[Jarhyn]

Coups in the Kremlin

What the history of Russia’s power struggles says about Putin’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

A good history of previous Kremlin Coups. But I wonder if a 1991 scenario is more likely. What if these demonstrations get further and further out of hand. What if the security forces find themselves overrun - even for just one case in an important city. It could snowball quickly. Putin has to be very aggressive in cracking these down but can he do it if they turn really large? If they get out of hand, all bets are off. At some point the security forces stop doing their job. They may not be enthusiastic supporters of this war either. They may have to go to Ukraine as well. At some point Putin is told he has to go. Maybe he’s given a dacha and immunity to soften the blow. Personally I hope he’s arrested or even worse.

That's the thing though... With this mobilization he could potentially end up depleting domestic security forces, and even they would likely look at this mobilization with worry.

Nobody who is aligned to be shoved into that meat grinder is going to be happy with the regime and at this point that's literally every Russian with testicles (because Russia among other states is a sexist hole)

 

[ZiprHead]

I was looking over the old board archive and there was a thread about Russia annexing Crimea. In the thread, JayJay said this:

]Is it because people are worried about the slippery slope? Letting Russia annex Crimera will make them more aggressive in the future, that they'll feel more emboldened to take over additional territory? That's waht I think anyway. In particular, certain key parts near the Crimean border and the Russian-majority territories in eastern Ukraine.

Looks like JayJay was exactly right.