How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

And today we start pondering about what we weren't pondering about, as we are suffering from tunnel vision with Ukraine. The worst thing we thought could have would be tactical nuclear from Putin against western assets in response to Ukraine attacking "Russia".

But if these killings in Russia are an indicator of higher power issues, then I start wondering about what happens if Russia falls into a Civil War. I can't imagine it'd be a typical war, but there are people in Russia that want war, there are others that like to hold on to the ridiculous wealth they have. What happens if no one is left at the wheel if things get too heated?

As I've noted, and nations like Finland are saying, the solution to the Russia problem are Russians.

A friend often opined that Russia is controlled by the Russian mob. Seems to me that the Russian mob is actually Putin and his cohorts. There really isn't room for another group. If there is an actual mob operating in Russia similar to what we have in the states, it's controlled by the state and probably funded by the state to carry out the kind of killings that have become so common.

Prior to WW2 Churchill was the British bad guy because he kept saying that Hitler and fascism aren't going to be solved by negotiation but rather only arms. The population and the government didn't want to hear the bad news, didn't want to hear the truth. That is what is happening in Ukraine. It's not something desirable but it is something made necessary by the human condition which includes the Putins.

Churchill also often bemoaned the shortcomings of democratic government but was quick to add that it was the best form of government given the alternatives.

 

[Elixir]

But Kaliningrad is separated from Ukraine by Poland.

You don’t expect the Nazi aggression to stop without establishing a land bridge, do you?

 

[steve_bank]

When you look at a map you see how relatively small the areas involved are.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine has almost completely surrounded Lyman.

Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "Without unnecessary ceremonies.
81st Airborne Brigade liberated the village of Drobysheve, Donetsk region. The future of the world is no longer decided in the kremlin. (vid link)" / Twitter - about 9 km NW of Lyman.

International Observers Ukraine on Twitter: "Lyman direction -
Stavky and Drobysheve are cleared.
Yampil is also confirmed
UA have fire control over the "Road of life" Zarichne-Kreminna from south of Dibrova.
Some say UA have Torske but no clear confirmation yet but it seems they're in the south part. #Ukraine #Donetsk (pic link)" / Twitter

MAKS 22 on Twitter: "️A column of Russian troops and stolen civilian transport in the village of Zarichne. They want to break into Torske and get out of the encirclement
The photo was taken 50 minutes ago from a Ukrainian drone. Ours see everything
#NAFO #NAFOfellas #Ukraine #Russia (pic link)" / Twitter
Unconfirmed picture - not sure what it's of.

There's some video that's purportedly from Yampil that some people have claimed is really from Kupyansk.

NEXTA on Twitter: "It is being reported that #Yampil, #Donetsk region is under #Ukrainian control. (vid link)" / Twitter
Showing some soldier in front of some building. The letters on the plaque behind the soldier are difficult for me to read.

Slava Ukraini on Twitter: "Yampil Glory to our HEROES ! (closeup link)" / Twitter - I can read the largest text: Ямпільський Навчально-Виховний Комплекс - (Google Translate from Ukrainian) Yampil Educational Complex

Повернись живим on Twitter: "️armed forces liberated Yampil of the Donetsk region, located about 17 km from Lyman. A photo published by military serviceman Orest Karakevich. Waiting for official confirmation (pic link)" / Twitter

Jimmy Rushton on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops advancing in Yampil, passing the wreckage of a Russian Tigr-M infantry mobility vehicle. (vid link)a" / Twitter

NOËL on Twitter: "#YAMPIL is Ukraine (pic link)" / Twitter - "Yampil" in Ukrainian Cyrillic letters: Ямпіль

 

[Jayjay]

If the mobilization works out for Putin, then there's no need for nukes.

I suppose it's how one defines "works out." It's obvious to me Poostain will never use nukes. He's going to do what he did with the pipelines, those kinds of things. The question is what will NATO do, what will "work out" for NATO given these provocations.

I see Ukraine continuing to make gains in the east and despite damage to their infrastructure as revenge. At some point those revenge attacks may provoke a response but it depends on how well Ukraine is doing militarily. How well Ukraine does militarily defines everything else and is why we have to continue to arm and support them however we can.

Militarily, Ukraine will lose unless the west can accelerate it's weapons deliveries and training.

And even if Ukraine has some limited gains, it just brings the nuclear gambit closer. To avoid that Ukraine needs to make massive gains or destroy Russian forces so utterly, that not even nukes can help Russia.

I don't think Ukraine can win, unless Russia implodes from within due to mobilizations and the economy. Which I don't think is very likely. Other countries like Venezuela or Iran have had it much worse and their autocrats are able to hang on to power just fine.

Personally I'm most interested to see if Ukraine can take back Kherson city and the right bank of Dnipro.

Man, you really don’t get war. It’s not a matter of sheer numbers, especially of simply men with guns. Ukraine is fighting for its survival with motivated troops. Its biggest supplier of armor is Russia, because they just abandon their vehicles. Ukraine can take Kherson, and if they do, the Russian military will suffer a deep psychological blow, and likely never recover. I wonder if they’ll just turn on their commanders at that point.

Maybe. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Defense is easier than offense. Russia has had ample time to fortify most of the territory it occupies, it won't all be as easy as Kharkiv.

As for Kherson, Russia really wants it. It will spend a lot of resources there, not just 50-year old reservists with a 60-year old rifles. But at the same time, it's a location where numbers don't matter as much, logistics over the river do. That's why I think Ukraine has a shot there. And if Ukraine wins that fight, then it will have defensible borders elsewhere and might be willing to compromise (though it will take a long time for Ukraine to come to grips with the reality that they've lost).

 

[lpetrich]

Some Russian military bloggers:

CasualtiesOfTheDay on Twitter: "Alexander Kots:
Lyman encircled, Yampil abandoned, Drobysheve falling
Ukrainian sabotage-reconnaissance groups active along supply road to Svatove, parts of which under AFU artillery control
Russia inexplicably wasting missiles and drones elsewhere. (links)" / Twitter

CasualtiesOfTheDay on Twitter: "WarGonzo: Lyman is fucked, Russia has reportedly been forced from Yampol, Drobyshevo has either fallen or soon will. (pix link)" / Twitter

Gisaengmul 기생물 on Twitter: "@WarMonitor3 I hear reports from friends fighting in Lyman Situation is dire Western imperial colonialists have all sides surrounded. Cannot find anymore Moon Pies in city. Logistics blocked. Cannot bring new shipments of Moon Pies into city.
#Lyman #Ukraine #Russia" / Twitter
Moon Pies???


 Accession of Ukraine to the European Union - became a candidate member of the EU a few months ago.

Ukraine applies for NATO membership, rules out Putin talks | Reuters

Ukraine Submits Application to Join NATO - The New York Times

Membership will require unanimous approval, and as we've seen for Sweden and Finland, some NATO members might drag their feet to get concessions.

ТРУХА️English on Twitter: "The moment president Zelenskyy signed the application for Ukraine’s accession to NATO in an accelerated manner (vid link)" / Twitter

Making Ukraine the first Eastern Slavic nation to join EU and NATO, the first former member of the Kievan Rus.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine's NATO membership application is just a jab at Russia for annexation of the occupied territories. Everybody knows that NATO won't take a new member that's in active war, because that would be an automatic trigger for chapter 5.

 

[Copernicus]

The droves of potential draftees fleeing Russia to neighboring countries is reminiscent of the large number of Americans who fled to Canada to avoid the draft in the Vietnam era. The difference is that the number leaving the US was nowhere near as large or chaotic as the situation at Russia's borders. Finland presents the best opportunity for men to get into Europe, but there is a lot of resistance in that direction. So most of those fleeing seem to be heading south and east, where countries are beginning to have problems absorbing all the refugees.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The droves of potential draftees fleeing Russia to neighboring countries is reminiscent of the large number of Americans who fled to Canada to avoid the draft in the Vietnam era. The difference is that the number leaving the US was nowhere near as large or chaotic as the situation at Russia's borders. Finland presents the best opportunity for men to get into Europe, but there is a lot of resistance in that direction. So most of those fleeing seem to be heading south and east, where countries are beginning to have problems absorbing all the refugees.

Russian authorities have been setting up enlistment offices at various border crossings with Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Finland.
Those wishing to avoid the war will have to flee on foot, hide within Russia, or reassess who their enemy is.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainian flag flies in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast

President's Office Head Andriy Yermak published a video of Ukrainian soldiers standing at the Lyman sign at the entrance to the city, holding a Ukrainian flag. Russian troops have been occupying this Donetsk Oblast city since May.

Earlier, on Oct. 1, Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said that about 5,000 Russian soldiers were encircled by Ukraine's Armed Forces in Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. According to Haidai, Russian troops asked their commanders if they could retreat but the request was turned down.

"The possibility of delivering ammunition to the city is already blocked," he said, adding that the Russian troops won't be able to exit the city.

Lyman is important because it is the next step towards the liberation of Donbas, wrote Reuters, citing Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesman of Ukraine's Operational Command “East.”

"It is an opportunity to go further to Kreminna and Sievierodonetsk (in Luhansk Oblast), and it is psychologically very important," Cherevatyi said.

 

[steve_bank]

Listened to this last night. An overview of the nuclear issue with Putin.

The Real Story - What should we make of Russia’s nuclear threats? - BBC Sounds

The US warns of “catastrophic consequences” if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

 

[Copernicus]

The droves of potential draftees fleeing Russia to neighboring countries is reminiscent of the large number of Americans who fled to Canada to avoid the draft in the Vietnam era. The difference is that the number leaving the US was nowhere near as large or chaotic as the situation at Russia's borders. Finland presents the best opportunity for men to get into Europe, but there is a lot of resistance in that direction. So most of those fleeing seem to be heading south and east, where countries are beginning to have problems absorbing all the refugees.

Russian authorities have been setting up enlistment offices at various border crossings with Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Finland.
Those wishing to avoid the war will have to flee on foot, hide within Russia, or reassess who their enemy is.

Russia is trying to stem the flow by announcing tactics like that, but that isn't stopping a lot of men from getting out and being interviewed by the news media in border countries. Russian authorities interrogate men leaving, but they are still letting men cross the border, even though they don't have a lot of luggage with them or an ironclad reason for leaving. There are probably too many for them to process everyone. You would need more than a few border guards at a border post with a line of cars stretching miles back. What are they supposed to do? Arrest everyone and transport them back home physically? I suppose that they are using social media such as Telegram to figure out which crossings are easier to get through and how best to make a successful exit. When the war ends, there will likely be a general amnesty to get them back. Even the US did that with all the men who fled to Canada to avoid Vietnam.

Russia opens more border draft offices amid call-up exodus​

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's a bit panicky in the land of the Ruskis right now. Lots of sane people getting out of Dodge while the getting is good. If Putin the great decides to close the borders you will see real panic. Just had a thought about how barbos would spin this. Hell, he's probably one of the chaps at the border trying to enlist men before they leave, saving the motherland from the Yankee hordes and all that.

Does anyone remember that scene from the movie "Stripes?" The American platoon were fleeing eastern Europe and the USSR and blasted through a military checkpoint manned by a couple guards. Pretty funny scene. The title in the soviet newspapers the next day was "Heroes Repel Yankee Horde!" Good stuff. But it is pretty spot on describing present Russian propaganda.

 

[pood]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Ukraine continues to kick Russian ass. How do you like them apples, Barbos?

 

[Copernicus]

I remember when barbos claimed outrage at the fact that Ukraine was imposing the Ukrainian language in areas where Russian was dominant. I took the position that the Ukrainian behavior (besides being explicitly prohibited by their constitution) was simply bad policy, no matter what country engages in it. Multilingual countries exist everywhere and can be perfectly stable. But it was not an excuse for a foreign power to invade on the pretense of helping out those who resisted. What Russians really want is the same policy that they imposed on people in foreign territories that they occupied in the past--forcing Russian on those people.

Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian​

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Attention big game hunters: Z-bear is still in season, no bag limit.

 

[steve_bank]

I remember when barbos claimed outrage at the fact that Ukraine was imposing the Ukrainian language in areas where Russian was dominant. I took the position that the Ukrainian behavior (besides being explicitly prohibited by their constitution) was simply bad policy, no matter what country engages in it. Multilingual countries exist everywhere and can be perfectly stable. But it was not an excuse for a foreign power to invade on the pretense of helping out those who resisted. What Russians really want is the same policy that they imposed on people in foreign territories that they occupied in the past--forcing Russian on those people.

Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian​

There is an earlier post on this.

There were long standing issues of language, education, and autonomy in the ethnic Russian areas.

Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

I think the bigger player is human ignorance and stupidity. Historical cultural issues are small potatoes, or certainly ought to be. And it might just be about greed and resources, not historical cultural issues.

As for Lyman, some articles have Russian troops surrounded and other articles have them withdrawing. I'm not sure which is more accurate.

 

[SLD]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.