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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

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Here, Russian forces renewed their efforts to undermine the Ukrainian grain corridor in the western Black Sea by taking advantage of their positions on drilling rigs and attacking a civilian cargo ship. Ukrainian commanders knew the importance of this move and decided to remove this danger by conducting an extensive amphibious operation to storm the Russian sea strongholds.

A series of successful strikes against the Russian Black Sea fleet has allowed Ukraine to secure the vital grain corridor through the Black Sea, crucial for economic recovery and global markets, particularly for countries in Africa and the Middle East. Despite this, Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure in the Odesa region to disrupt exports. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal noted that 66 million tons of cargo have been shipped in 2024, nearing pre-invasion levels.

To disrupt this, the Russian forces struck a civilian cargo ship transiting through the corridor in the western Black Sea, likely in a new attempt to undermine international confidence in its safety. Ukrainian officials reported that a cruise missile strike was conducted by the Russians against a civilian cargo ship under the flag of a third country transporting wheat to Egypt exactly when leaving Ukrainian territorial waters with preliminary data suggesting there were no casualties. The Romanian Coast Guard reported later that the Russian missile struck the ship while in Romania’s maritime economic zone which once again showcases the provocative nature of this act.

Understanding the strategic significance of the grain corridor, Ukraine launched one of its largest amphibious operations, aiming to neutralize oil rig platforms that Russia had seized in 2014. Used as surveillance bases, they are crucial to Russian operations in the area. Ukrainian naval forces, alongside elements of the Main Military Intelligence Directorate, executed a bold assault on the Crimea-2 drilling rig, utilizing 14 Willard Sea Force inflatable speed boats. The operation's detailed footage, later released, reveals the boats advancing rapidly toward the platform.

Just before reaching their target, Ukrainian forces deployed a swarm of drones to strike enemy positions, effectively suppressing the defenders' ability to retaliate. A Russian soldier later confirmed in an angry video that over 30 drones were used in the attack, resulting in significant losses among his fellow soldiers. The footage further shows the boats closing in and unleashing a barrage from M2 Browning 12.7-millimeter machine guns, followed by a series of powerful explosions on the platform. The Ukrainian forces then engaged in an intense firefight with the remaining Russian troops, demonstrating both tactical precision and overwhelming firepower in their assault. The full uncensored videos of all Ukrainian sea operations can be found on our Telegram channel through the link in the description.

The Russian forces reacted swiftly to the surprise attack by dispatching several fighter jets, including Su-Thirty and Su-Thirty-Five, to intercept the Ukrainian boats and prevent them from seizing the target. During this engagement, the Russian jets launched several missiles, but the situation took an unexpected turn when one of the Su-Thirty aircraft abruptly disappeared from radar. Search and rescue operations were promptly initiated to locate the missing jet. Initially, the cause of the incident remained unclear, sparking various speculations in the Russian media. Some suggested the jet might have been downed by an F-16, while others considered the possibility of a technical malfunction or self-destruction. However, Russian military bloggers soon reported that the aircraft was shot down by Ukrainian forces using a man-portable air defense system. According to these reports, the missile was fired from one of the Ukrainian speedboats involved in the assault, showcasing the Ukrainians' capability to strike back even under challenging circumstances.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate quickly confirmed the event by releasing footage of the operation. The video first shows the oil rig platform, with a Russian jet flying at low altitude, attempting to engage the Ukrainian forces at sea. It then captures a boat maneuvering into position, followed by the launch of an air-defense missile...

UNCENSORED COMBAT FOOTAGE on Telegram: https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
 
I have never understood this: Why not?

Updated Feb 14, 2024

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"As Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its third year and Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress continue to withhold U.S. funding for Ukraine, Ukrainian artillery batteries are desperately low on ammunition.

Six months ago, Ukrainian batteries were firing as many as 6,000 shells a day and, in some sectors of the 600-mile front line, even matching Russians batteries’ own shellfire.

Today, four months after Republicans began blocking aid, the Ukrainians are firing just 2,000 shells a day. At the same time, the Russians—flush with shells from North Korea and Iran—are firing up as many as 10,000 shells a day.

That firepower disparity is the main reason why Russian forces are—admittedly at great cost—slowly advancing in and around the eastern city of Avdiivka, currently the locus of Russia’s winter offensive.

Given indicted ex-president Donald Trump’s cultish hold over the Republican Party and Trump’s longstanding affinity for authoritarian Russian leader Vladimir Putin, there’s seems to be little prospect of Biden getting much, or any, fresh funding for Ukraine now that Republicans hold a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

But that doesn’t mean Biden is powerless to help Ukraine. An under-appreciated U.S. law gives the president authority to sell at a discount, or even give away, any existing weapons the U.S. military declares excess to its needs."

Read more here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ne-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/
The US brought a new artillery facility on line this past summer and I believe Nammo is building a new one in the US also. The US has been ramping up production. The new facilities are highly automated so they will be more easily brought on line as necessary without having to worry so much about hiring and background investigations.
I've read that in the past about Biden's ability to basically give away what he wants if the will were there. Similarly, South Korea is flush with artillery and can circumvent their law of not providing weapons to countries in conflict by transferring to friendly nations who can.
Is any of this happening that does not make the news? Who knows. I have to assume not given the current situation in Ukraine.

Search "New artillery Texas" "Update artillery Pennsylvania".
 
I would not say American republicans are aligned with Putin.

It is more the MAGA isolationism mouthed by Trump. Ukraine is non of our business, Putin can do what he wants.
 

18 Sep: Ukrainian Pincer Maneuver DESTROYS RUSSIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE IN KURSK​




Here, Ukrainian forces have launched a daring flanking maneuver, breaking through Russian defenses and putting the entire Russian strike force on the verge of encirclement. This bold maneuver could completely neutralize Russia’s counteroffensive and give Ukraine an ultimate upper hand in this region.As reported last time, Russians took control of Snagost and reestablished ground lines of communication with the Glushkovo pocket; however, to keep Russians cut off from the mainland, Ukrainians kept the road under strict fire control with FPV drones. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainians destroying a Russian transport vehicle on its way to resupply Russian forces to the west.

Russians knew that to eliminate the threat of Ukrainians launching another attack and cutting off the pocket again, they had to push Ukrainian forces further west. Russian military sources reported they launched a series of infantry assaults on Byahkovo, Vnezapnoe, and Gordeevka and had captured these minor settlements. Russians launched a spearhead mechanized assault on the settlement of Liubimovka, a slightly larger settlement that Ukrainians are able to use as a launching point for future offensive actions. Taking control of Liubimovka would allow Russians to sever the Sudzha-Korenevo road and cut off and outflank Ukrainian positions further to the north.

Ukrainians report that Russians launched the assault with two tanks, eleven BMD infantry fighting vehicles, and one armored personnel carrier. Geolocated footage shows how Ukrainians destroyed the Russian armor as it advanced toward the town with anti-tank mines, javelin ATGMs, and FPV drones mounted with anti-tank weapons. If you want to get access to the original uncensored combat footage, you can find it on our Telegram channel by using the QR code or the link in the description.

UNCENSORED COMBAT FOOTAGE on Telegram: https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
 

HUGE Ukrainian Drone Strike At Missile Storage at Toropets, Russia​

Huge Blaze and Cookoffs​

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Toropets now:

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From here:




Check also this:


And here you can hear the explosions, continuing hours afterwards as the Russian guy lies about "Debris caused it... yadda, yadda.."
Also, the neighbouring village, across the river seems to be on fire.

 
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Is Ukraine Outmaneuvering Russia? Inside the Great Kursk Dance​

A ton is happening on the Kursk front right now. Russia began a counterattack, opening up a corridor to the troops that Ukraine had previously cut off. However, Ukraine seemingly had a counter-counterattack prepared, filling in the area that Russia attacked from and attempting to further extend Russia's supply lines.
This video explores what exactly each is up to and what they appear to be attempting to do over the upcoming weeks.

0:00 Major Movements in Kursk
0:33 The Prelude
1:55 Russia's Three Options
4:13 Russia Begins Its Counterattack
5:40 Ukraine Counter-Counterattacks
7:44 Ukraine's Second Strike
9:22 What's Behind Ukraine's Strategy?


 
Divorce Russian style

Anton Gerashchenko:


"In Moscow, there was a shootout at the entrance to the office of a large Russian marketplace - Wildberries. There are killed and wounded.
The head of the marketplace, Tatyana Bakalchuk, said that her husband Vladislav and his guards were trying to organize a "corporate raid" of the company's office.

Vladislav Bakalchuk claims he came for negotiations but was attacked at the entrance.
And while they are squabbling, dividing a multi-billion dollar business involving Ramzan Kadyrov in divorce proceedings, Russian Telegram channels report that two security guards were killed in the shootout and 3 to 7 people were wounded.

The Russian time machine is only able to "travel" to the past."



Wildberries is a very big company in Russia. Its business idea is equal to Amazon.
I read somewhere that FSB is siding with one spouse and the Tsetstsenian mafia the other spouse.
 
Russian Media Monitor is a site where Russian state TV channel's propaganda is translated into English, showing how sick the propaganda is.
This kind of shit is broadcasted every evening...
Here is one example:

Maria Zakharova says America is just like the Third Reich​

 
Divorce Russian style

Anton Gerashchenko:


"In Moscow, there was a shootout at the entrance to the office of a large Russian marketplace - Wildberries. There are killed and wounded.
The head of the marketplace, Tatyana Bakalchuk, said that her husband Vladislav and his guards were trying to organize a "corporate raid" of the company's office.

Vladislav Bakalchuk claims he came for negotiations but was attacked at the entrance.
And while they are squabbling, dividing a multi-billion dollar business involving Ramzan Kadyrov in divorce proceedings, Russian Telegram channels report that two security guards were killed in the shootout and 3 to 7 people were wounded.

The Russian time machine is only able to "travel" to the past."



Wildberries is a very big company in Russia. Its business idea is equal to Amazon.
I read somewhere that FSB is siding with one spouse and the Tsetstsenian mafia the other spouse.


The shooting at the Wildberries office – Did the '90s ever leave?

This is a video in Russian language with English subs.
I have put the English transcript from the video here:

"Yesterday, a group of armed men that had Ramzan Kadyrov’s grunts in their midst fired shots at a downtown Moscow office building of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer.
The scene looked straight out of an action movie and involved an entourage of Vladislav Bakalchuk, the company’s co-owner.

The shooting incident has left two people dead and several others, including the cops, injured.
We had a video about the company-related dispute, but today, it’d be safe to assume the Wildberries drama
fits the overarching context of Russian politics.
According to a government-pushed narrative, Russia’s recent history can be broken down into two different periods.

It started with the roaring 1990s, with their medieval-style reign of organized crime syndicates.
The mobsters would be charging a protection fee from every single business and stripping the rightful owners of their companies.
Business disputes would result in armed clashes.

In a bid to resolve them, the entrepreneurs wouldn’t turn to the police, but to another kingpin.
But once Putin snagged the presidency in 2000, whoosh, it ushered in an ear of stability and the rigorous rule of the law.
The protagonists of the previous epoch and their trademark habits vanished into thin air and would only belong in the movies.
Moreover, as time flowed by, those characters and their practices would be retroactively getting uglier.
Most Russians, including the government critics, bought into the narrative.
Whenever wild incidents, like the one we saw yesterday, hog the limelight, they spark speculation to the tune of, “Whoa, the 1990s must be back!”

But truth be told, there’s no reason to believe that era sank into historical oblivion.
True, you won’t see punches being thrown over a newsstand these days.
However, when it comes to large businesses and high-profile individuals, literally nothing has changed, as the same people armed with the same principles are still running the show.
Let’s take a closer look at the incident we’ve mentioned.

To the best of our knowledge, as the couple is navigating the divorce proceedings and dividing their assets,
both ex-partners have won over some influential backers.
Tatyana Bakalchuk is supported by Suleiman Kerimov.

A quick online search will yield a Wikipedia puff piece on Kerimov that portrays a grotesque image of a 1990s Russian oligarch, the one you’d often see depicted by a schlocky TV show.
This guy comes across as a blend of an entrepreneur, a mobster, and a sly business liaison.
Vladislav Bakalchuk, in turn, enlisted Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov to help him snag his share of their family assets.

Although he spent most of the 1990s in his dad’s shadow, Ramzan fits the narrative arc to a tee.
The Chechnya mob was an intrinsic part of the savage capitalist reappropriation saga of the 1990s.
True, these days, the former grunts are now holding top-tier jobs with the law enforcement and security agencies, many of them recipients of the government accolades, and can offer political protection, too.
Yet, offering this protection remains their biggest business enterprise to this day.
The only thing that doesn’t fit the 1990s context is the nature of the business the two sides are fighting over.

The 1990s mobsters wouldn’t be staking an illegal claim for an IT outfit as they couldn’t wrap their heads around the money-making process there.
They’d rather set their sights on a coal mine or a factory.
But the plot twists, the character cast, and the M.O. all look straight out of the 1994 playbook.
And these practices have never changed.
That’s the way the business assets were being divvied up in the 1990s, the 2000s, and the 2010s alike.
If you know a thing or two about the life and times of Russia’s big money scene, yesterday’s shooting won’t come as a shocker to you. That’s a common occurrence.

The one thing that really stands out, though, is the public display of the 1990s-style savagery.
The divvying-up of the property tends to be a very low-key affair that only goes public once the former owners have fled to Dubai.
But when it comes to Wildberries, the current gangster drama is on full display in the media and right in front of people’s eyes.

Property Dispute!
It’s not the unofficial leaks but the protagonists themselves that have already shed light on a host of details of the tautly plotted story.
It wasn’t just a bizarre shooting in central Moscow.
Everybody recognized the backstory almost instantly as both side always take to both legacy and social media
to comment on a new plot twist.
We won’t be dwelling on this unheard-of transparency since we covered it in our previous video.
The takeaway here is that, although the Wildberries controversy is nothing out of the ordinary,
the media aspect thereof illustrates the way Russia has changed compared with the 1990s,
the myth of which era underpins the legitimacy of the current political system.

Let’s keep rolling.
There’s one glaring fact many seem to have clean forgotten about.
Russia’s incumbent president is the former Lieutenant Governor of St. Petersburg.
In the early-to-mid-1990s, he was in charge of the city’s foreign trade.
Even if you knew nothing about Putin’s lucrative ties to the Tambov crime syndicate, at the time the shadow rulers of the city, his job title would tell you the whole story.

Back in the day, the biggest profits were being made off the foreign trade transactions.
The mobsters would be swooping down on the sea ports, customs offices, and border patrol checkpoints.
A batch of something simple as PCs could propel one to a multi-million-dollar net worth.
And that’s when the foreign trade operations in Russia’s largest maritime trade city was helmed by that low-key guy.

He was in charge of the humanitarian aid supplies, the customs fees, the benefits, and the creation and operations of the so-called “cooperative enterprises,” an abundant source of dough.
Putin’s signature would unlock the access to millions of bucks.
It’s safe to say Vladimir Putin enjoyed a close relationship with the mobsters capitalizing off the foreign trade deals.

Otherwise, he would’ve wound up six feet below the ground some three decades ago.
The incumbent who is searing his way of thinking and his M.O. into everything everybody is supposed to do,
isn’t just starkly opposed to the depravity of the 1990s era. He embodies it.
His cronies come from the same background, too.

None of them would find the Wildberries dramatic property dispute particularly shocking.
All of their billion-dollar net worths, villas, private jets, and luxury yachts stem from the same kind of forced underhanded deals.
Documentary filmmaker Leonid Parfenov once dubbed the Putin era as
“the ‘90s with oil prices at $100 per barrel.” True that.

The following three decades haven’t debuted a single institution that would protect property rights.
The fledgling ones were all but dismantled.
If someone is locked in a dispute over their formerly shared property, there’s no civilized way to resolve it.
Clearly, unlike the disputes over a garage or a condo, when billions of dollars are at stake and the sides involve high-profile backers like Kerimov and Kadyrov, filing a lawsuit seems pointless. The one with a tougher backing will come out on top.
But practically speaking, both sides are likely to lose big time.
The high-profile backers in question may find it easier to strike a deal while stripping the owners of their property clean.

But if the country features individuals that are above the law and any court orders, it’s only natural for the litigants in the Wildberries case to reach out to them instead of taking it to court.
After all, court-ordered paperwork offers flimsy protection against the lead bullets.

Lawlessness Instituted!
Now, why did this story go that glaringly public?
Remember the rule? A need for public outreach in Russia stems from problems only.
Since we don’t have an open political system, public opinion is basically of no use.
If you’re a PMC leader-turned-videoblogger who starts howling, “Shoigu, Gerasimov, you bastards, where’s the bloody ammo?”, it doesn’t mean you’re powerful. It means you’re desperate.
You no longer can whisper into the big guy’s ear, so you’re yelling from afar.

The Wildberries story evidently has a similar plot.
The parties to the conflict are seeking public attention. But their addressee isn't the general public.
It’s the home-plate umpire, Vladimir Putin. Ramzan Kadyrov’s beeline to his ear must’ve been cut off.
Or maybe it wasn’t, but it’s just that the scale was tipped in his opponent’s favor.
These recent developments more or less fit Kadyrov’s M.O.
Whenever he doesn’t get what he wants, he ups the ante, comes across as a madman, and forces Putin to make his pick.

Either punish the Kadyrovites and perhaps Ramzan himself or side with him.
It hasn’t been the first time Kadyrov treated Putin the way Putin treats everybody else.
By committing a flagrant act of lawless thuggery, he bullies his big boss into compliance and the need to reaffirm his special status.

If the backstory we’ve all been told is anything to go by and Kerimov introduced Tatyana Bakalchuk to Putin so that she gets the go-ahead for Wildberries’ merger with Kerimov’s business, it all makes sense.
The big boss has made his pick. You can’t convince him to roll it back, but you can force him to reconsider.
Hence the decision to cause a public stir so that summoning the bigwigs behind the scene is no longer an option.

The reappropriation of Wildberries’ assets has become public knowledge.
This is Kadyrov at his best. Whenever the crap hits the fan, he doesn’t back out.
Far from it, he starts escalating it.
Once everybody began talking about Kadyrov’s health issues, he posted a video of his son Adam beating up Nikita Zhuravel.

When Adam’s violent act predictably sparked public outrage, his dad made the leaders of Russia’s Muslim regions start publicly bestowing a bunch of accolades upon his offspring.
Apparently, the initial footage of Vladislav Bakalchuk conversing with Kadyrov had no effect on the story.
That’s where Kadyrov decided to take it up a notch and initiate a deadly shooting in downtown Moscow.
It’ll either be prosecuted or downplayed, thus giving Kadyrov what he wants and avoiding a new escalatory step.

Although the shooting incident is uncharacteristic of the Russian system, it meshes well with Kadyrov’s own playbook.
Whenever an altercation like this happens, he tends to come out on top, proving time and again that Putin’s isn’t ready to lay waste to him.
Nobody knows the future denouement of this story, but along with the sweeping MoD purge, it’s the kind of case you want to keep an eye on.

These incidents show us the inner workings and go-to practices of the Russian government and help us discard the harmful illusions like the one of the roaring 1990s that gave way to Putin’s stability.
Notably, Vladislav Bakalchuk has just been arrested. But it means almost nothing under the circumstances.
Neither Vladislav nor his ex-wife Tatyana is the biggest actor in this saga.
If your business is being taken care of by the likes of Putin, Kadyrov, Kerimov, or any other oligarch or state security official, it’s already a recipe for disaster.

You’re just a passenger in this car that’s hurtling down either to your arrest or to your assassination.
None of their assurance will work. None of these top dogs are going to be committed to your cause, you punks.
The only problem they’re all eager to relieve you of is that of your lack of spare time and the stress of running your business.
No business to run, no stress to cope with.
The smartest guys figure this out before it’s too late.

They seek to pocket as much money as they can physically handle and board a one-way flight to Tel Aviv,
the sun-soaked Dubai, or the rain-soaked London.
It boils down to the destinations they can afford.
But the credulous folks who tend to trust the untrustables, hope to pally up with them, and refuse to flee
as soon as possible often end up in a wreck.
Losing their business will be the least of their ills.
See you tomorrow!"

 
That was a great read. it explains what Russian "government" really is. Thanks! It hasn't changed since there were tsars, except in how it's been labeled. It's why Ivan wanted to get out of Dodge, leave the Russian shithole and live in the west.
 
RT has been talking about getting Alaska back off and on for years.
Interestingly we manned this island in the cold war. My brother did a tour there in the early 70's.
Oh, and Alaskans have one of highest gun ownerships in the USA.
Good luck Ivan!
 
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