How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

The nuclear threat is Putin holding a gun to his own head.

Fanatics who are genuinely prepared to die, as long as they take a lot of others with them, are rare; The 9/11 hijackers are the exception that proves the rule. Putin is not a religious fanatic in that mould - he doesn't anticipate paradise for his martyrdom.

He won't use his nukes, even if he has any that still work, because he knows that a few minutes after he does, he, his family, his friends (if any), his armies, and their immediate environs, will be rapidly expanding clouds of radioactive gas and dust.

At least, I hope he knows that. And that the world's other nuclear powers remind him of it at every opportunity.

 

[barbos]

The only thing that can make Putin back off is overwhelming force

You don't have overwhelming force against Russia, let alone China which WILL help Russia if needed.

 

[aupmanyav]

Ukraine wants Ukraine. Ukraine had Ukraine. Russia invaded and occupied a piece of it.
Russia wants war because Ukraine still has most of Ukraine. Ukraine just wants Russians the hell out of THEIR country. The assholes came of their own volition, and need to go home before even Russians in Russia start dying. (Not that Russians ever cared much about Russians dying…)

Was there any reason why Russia invaded Ukraine? Countries do not go to war without reasons.
Wars bring deaths, no surprise. Countries stop wars if 1. Purpose fulfilled, 2. Costs too high, 3. Completing the purpose not possible.
Seems the purpose of both the parties is not fulfilled (Russia, NATO), so the war will continue - Ukraine is unimportant, a country which got caught between two stones of the grinding mill.

 

[aupmanyav]

Russia wants war or ‘war’ as a distraction fir how badly Putin is failing his country.
Plus they’d like a sea access….

Badly or goodly, he is the boss at the moment in Russia, just like Trump is in the US.
Russia has access to sea through Gulf of Finland, its Arctic coast and Black Sea. I do not see any problem.
The nuclear-powered submarines do not need to surface for months.
We have two India manufactured nuclear-powered submarines with ballistic missile capability, S6, Arihant and Arighat.
The third Aridaman, S4, is going through under-sea trials. She can carry up to 24 K-15 Sagarika missiles (each with a range of 750 km or 470 mi), eight K-4 missiles (with a range of 3,500 km or 2,200 mi) or K-5 missiles (MIRV, Stealth, with range of 6,000 km or 3,700 mi).
All names mean 'Killer of enemies'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Aridhaman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-5_(ballistic_missile)

 

[barbos]

I responded to Aupmanyav (who has a very naive view of Russia) that Russia does not want peace with Ukraine.

I did not say anything like that. I said 'it seems both the parties do not want peace, so just 'keep away' and let them have what they want'. I would not like to interfere when two bulls are fighting it out. Ukraine is the cow.

Ukraine wants Ukraine.
Ukraine had Ukraine.
Russia invaded and occupied a piece of it.
Russia wants war because Ukraine still has most of Ukraine. Ukraine just wants Russians the hell out of THEIR country. The assholes came of their own volition, and need to go home before even Russians in Russia start dying. (Not that Russians ever cared much about Russians dying…)

Russia wants war or ‘war’ as a distraction fir how badly Putin is failing his country.

Putin is doing great for his country, not the least becasue of your stupid sanctions.

Plus they’d like a sea access….

What sea that would be?

You are talking nonsense.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The nuclear threat is Putin holding a gun to his own head.

Fanatics who are genuinely prepared to die, as long as they take a lot of others with them, are rare; The 9/11 hijackers are the exception that proves the rule. Putin is not a religious fanatic in that mould - he doesn't anticipate paradise for his martyrdom.

He won't use his nukes, even if he has any that still work, because he knows that a few minutes after he does, he, his family, his friends (if any), his armies, and their immediate environs, will be rapidly expanding clouds of radioactive gas and dust.

At least, I hope he knows that. And that the world's other nuclear powers remind him of it at every opportunity.

I don't think Putin gives a fuck about the Russian people. I think he thinks Russians are expendable, as long as he gets to keep a life in luxury. Which he will. As long as he wins. I think Putin cares more about winning than creating a nuclear winter for mankind. I don't think he gives a shit about that.

I think the only thing keeping Putin from using nukes is that, if he would give the order, he'll likely face a military mutiny. And no nukes being shot. The Russian army aren't blind automatons. They too are very aware of the consequences of mutual nuclear destruction. I think the only scenario that the Russian military will accept is a retaliatory strike. Putin would have to convince the Russian high command that a Western first strike has been carried out, and that's just too implausible imho. They have access to the same media we do.

So I think what keeps Putin from using nukes is that he can't trust his own army to actually shoot the rockets. If he gives the order and it's not obeyed... Putin is fucked.

Like it or not, Putin is still popular in Russia. He won't be if he starts shooting nukes. I think he cares about his popularity

 

[barbos]

The nuclear threat is Putin holding a gun to his own head.

Fanatics who are genuinely prepared to die, as long as they take a lot of others with them, are rare; The 9/11 hijackers are the exception that proves the rule. Putin is not a religious fanatic in that mould - he doesn't anticipate paradise for his martyrdom.

He won't use his nukes, even if he has any that still work, because he knows that a few minutes after he does, he, his family, his friends (if any), his armies, and their immediate environs, will be rapidly expanding clouds of radioactive gas and dust.

At least, I hope he knows that. And that the world's other nuclear powers remind him of it at every opportunity.

I don't think Putin gives a fuck about the Russian people. I think he thinks Russians are expendable, as long as he gets to keep a life in luxury. Which he will. As long as he wins. I think Putin cares more about winning than creating a nuclear winter for mankind. I don't think he gives a shit about that.

I think the only thing keeping Putin from using nukes is that, if he would give the order, he'll likely face a military mutiny. And no nukes being shot. The Russian army aren't blind automatons. They too are very aware of the consequences of mutual nuclear destruction. I think the only scenario that the Russian military will accept is a retaliatory strike. Putin would have to convince the Russian high command that a Western first strike has been carried out, and that's just too implausible imho. They have access to the same media we do.

So I think what keeps Putin from using nukes is that he can't trust his own army to actually shoot the rockets. If he gives the order and it's not obeyed... Putin is fucked.

Like it or not, Putin is still popular in Russia. He won't be if he starts shooting nukes. I think he cares about his popularity

What is the basis for this ridiculous bullshit you are spewing here?
Is that danish media?

 

[aupmanyav]

So I think what keeps Putin from using nukes is that he can't trust his own army to actually shoot the rockets. If he gives the order and it's not obeyed... Putin is fucked.

Trump too does not care about anything other than the illusive Nobel prize. If the Nobel Committee does not give him the Peace prize and gives it to someone else, he will go mad. I think there will be no Nobel Peace prize this year. The Committee does not have any other option - either give it to Trump or don't give it to any one.

He stopped the India- Pakistan war, and by the time they come to decide about Peace prize, Trump will have solved the Gaza war with complete destruction of Gaza, leaving only Ukraine problem to be solved.