The president and former president have exchanged some words lately about who is responsible for the post-recession economic recovery. It started when Obama, in remarks on Sept. 7 in Illinois, said, “let’s just remember when this recovery started.”
“I mean I’m glad it’s continued, but when you hear about this economic miracle that’s been going on, when the job numbers come out, monthly job numbers, and suddenly Republicans are saying it’s a miracle,” Obama said. “I have to kind of remind them, actually, those job numbers are the same as they were in 2015 and 2016.”
Three days later, Trump tweeted a quote that he claimed a skeptical Obama made about the growth in the gross domestic product.
We could not find that quote or any quote of Obama using the term “magic wand” to describe Trump’s ability to grow the economy by 4 percent.
We did find that Obama used the term “magic wand” at a June 1, 2016, “PBS NewsHour” town hall meeting in Indiana. But Obama was referring to Trump’s promise to bring back “some of those jobs of the past.” Instead, Obama said, the next president needed to focus on job training for “jobs that are coming in now.”
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As for the GDP, Trump’s tweet was referring to the recent Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate that the real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018. That was the largest increase since the third quarter of 2014, when it grew at an annualized rate of 4.9 percent.
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In a separate tweet the same day, Trump also wrongly claimed, “The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!” The White House later acknowledged the error, and said the president should have said it hasn’t happened in 10 years. (Actually, it last happened 12 years ago.)
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The president’s tweet caught the attention of Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, who did an analysis and found that while the president’s figures for the GDP and unemployment rate were accurate, the president was way off in claiming that it was the first time in a century that the quarterly GDP rate was higher than the unemployment rate.
In two tweets, Wolfers listed the 62 times that has happened going back to 1948, most recently in the first quarter of 2006.