• Welcome to the Internet Infidels Discussion Board.

Investing and Personal Finance

Why would I do that? I can earn 7 percent on money I invest now over the long run (adjusted for inflation) and only have to pay 6 percent for my debt (not adjusted for inflation) for another 3 years.

7% after inflation long term? How?
That's the well know figure for the return of the S&P 500 (it includes dividends mind you). I use that figure because it is well known, I really only own index/mutual funds, only some of which is indexed to the S&P.


Get automatically rebalancing funds, or balance it yourself. Use IRAs or Roth IRAs for tax benefits.


These last few months have been great. Been able to buy a lot more. Unfortunately, I only really started seriously contributing to my retirement for about 3 years now (I'm 30). Most of my contributions have been at these crazy unprecedented steep inclines. I try not to worry too much about it. Slow and steady.
 
Why would I do that? I can earn 7 percent on money I invest now over the long run (adjusted for inflation) and only have to pay 6 percent for my debt (not adjusted for inflation) for another 3 years.

7% after inflation long term? How?
That's the well know figure for the return of the S&P 500 (it includes dividends mind you). I use that figure because it is well known, I really only own index/mutual funds, only some of which is indexed to the S&P.


Get automatically rebalancing funds, or balance it yourself. Use IRAs or Roth IRAs for tax benefits.


These last few months have been great. Been able to buy a lot more. Unfortunately, I only really started seriously contributing to my retirement for about 3 years now (I'm 30). Most of my contributions have been at these crazy unprecedented steep inclines. I try not to worry too much about it. Slow and steady.

The 7% figure is actually a bit of a misconception. It is the long-term historical average, but there are other important variables involved too, check out this article, and do a bit of research into how averages can be misleading.

The other thing is your time horizon. Break the entire history of the stock market into 20 year segments, and some of those segments offer awful returns, while others offer amazing ones. That, and ideally you have a bull market when you own the most liquid assets. In other words, the sequence of your returns is critical too.

Check out Adaptive Asset Allocation, the book I posted above to explain it better than I can. I've been trying to read as much as I can before making any big decisions, because realistically I still have an almost 30 year time horizon, and spending 50-100 dollars on books is a better investment than making a major mistake and losing out on possibly tens of thousands of dollars.
 
That's the well know figure for the return of the S&P 500 (it includes dividends mind you). I use that figure because it is well known, I really only own index/mutual funds, only some of which is indexed to the S&P.


Get automatically rebalancing funds, or balance it yourself. Use IRAs or Roth IRAs for tax benefits.


These last few months have been great. Been able to buy a lot more. Unfortunately, I only really started seriously contributing to my retirement for about 3 years now (I'm 30). Most of my contributions have been at these crazy unprecedented steep inclines. I try not to worry too much about it. Slow and steady.

The 7% figure is actually a bit of a misconception. It is the long-term historical average, but there are other important variables involved too, check out this article, and do a bit of research into how averages can be misleading.

The other thing is your time horizon. Break the entire history of the stock market into 20 year segments, and some of those segments offer awful returns, while others offer amazing ones. That, and ideally you have a bull market when you own the most liquid assets. In other words, the sequence of your returns is critical too.

Check out Adaptive Asset Allocation, the book I posted above to explain it better than I can. I've been trying to read as much as I can before making any big decisions, because realistically I still have an almost 30 year time horizon, and spending 50-100 dollars on books is a better investment than making a major mistake and losing out on possibly tens of thousands of dollars.

The 7% figure is also before inflation...
 
Any guaranteed investment will immediately begin to underperform the minute I sink money into it.
 
That's the well know figure for the return of the S&P 500 (it includes dividends mind you). I use that figure because it is well known, I really only own index/mutual funds, only some of which is indexed to the S&P.


Get automatically rebalancing funds, or balance it yourself. Use IRAs or Roth IRAs for tax benefits.


These last few months have been great. Been able to buy a lot more. Unfortunately, I only really started seriously contributing to my retirement for about 3 years now (I'm 30). Most of my contributions have been at these crazy unprecedented steep inclines. I try not to worry too much about it. Slow and steady.

The 7% figure is actually a bit of a misconception. It is the long-term historical average, but there are other important variables involved too, check out this article, and do a bit of research into how averages can be misleading.

The other thing is your time horizon. Break the entire history of the stock market into 20 year segments, and some of those segments offer awful returns, while others offer amazing ones. That, and ideally you have a bull market when you own the most liquid assets. In other words, the sequence of your returns is critical too.

Check out Adaptive Asset Allocation, the book I posted above to explain it better than I can. I've been trying to read as much as I can before making any big decisions, because realistically I still have an almost 30 year time horizon, and spending 50-100 dollars on books is a better investment than making a major mistake and losing out on possibly tens of thousands of dollars.

The 7% figure is also before inflation...

No, it isn't. It's taking into account inflation, but also including dividend income. It is actually an *underestimate* if you re-invest that income.

In any event, this I didn't want to get into the weeds about a specific number. I was merely contesting the point that the most advantageous thing to do is to always pay off your debts first.
 
The 7% figure is also before inflation...

No, it isn't. It's taking into account inflation, but also including dividend income. It is actually an *underestimate* if you re-invest that income.

In any event, this I didn't want to get into the weeds about a specific number. I was merely contesting the point that the most advantageous thing to do is to always pay off your debts first.

The eternal lesson of Talk Freethought. Use absolutely any loose language in your post at all and it turns into an entire weekend ignoring your family.
 
Yea I think the question is whether your investment profits will outstrip your mortgage interest savings. Thing is, the more I read the more it looks like I actually won't be able to earn much more with stocks over the next 15-20 years. All outlooks I've read are bleak.

So it's earn a sure 2.85 on my mortgage, or maybe or maybe not earn a bit more than that with a diversified portfolio. For now I'm just accumulating cash until I'm more sure what I want to do with it.

ETA: The other thing I'm considering is liquidity. I could easily pay off my mortgage in about 10 years, but that leaves me with little cash at that time if stock conditions do become favourable.

What does your wife think about all of this?

Well I've been trying to push our financial responsibilities off on her, but no matter how hard I try I keep getting stuck browsing my Kobo for obscure investment books.
 
Yea I think the question is whether your investment profits will outstrip your mortgage interest savings. Thing is, the more I read the more it looks like I actually won't be able to earn much more with stocks over the next 15-20 years. All outlooks I've read are bleak.

So it's earn a sure 2.85 on my mortgage, or maybe or maybe not earn a bit more than that with a diversified portfolio. For now I'm just accumulating cash until I'm more sure what I want to do with it.

ETA: The other thing I'm considering is liquidity. I could easily pay off my mortgage in about 10 years, but that leaves me with little cash at that time if stock conditions do become favourable.

What does your wife think about all of this?

Well I've been trying to push our financial responsibilities off on her, but no matter how hard I try I keep getting stuck browsing my Kobo for obscure investment books.

Not what I asked. I asked what your wife's opinion was.

Why look for obscure books? Why not share the responsibilities? Or at least ask her opinion?

I manage my own retirement account via professionals, along with my own research/philosophy and with some advice from my husband, who has been managing his for longer and because he has more professional expertise plus colleagues with considerable expertise. That said, he also keeps me apprised of what is going on and asks my opinion and where our strategies differ, looks to compare how well my portfolio is doing against his.

It's not my favorite nor my natural area of interest but then, neither is cleaning the toilet. Yet both are essential. And the responsibilities should be shared.
 
Well I've been trying to push our financial responsibilities off on her, but no matter how hard I try I keep getting stuck browsing my Kobo for obscure investment books.

Not what I asked. I asked what your wife's opinion was.

Why look for obscure books? Why not share the responsibilities? Or at least ask her opinion?

I manage my own retirement account via professionals, along with my own research/philosophy and with some advice from my husband, who has been managing his for longer and because he has more professional expertise plus colleagues with considerable expertise. That said, he also keeps me apprised of what is going on and asks my opinion and where our strategies differ, looks to compare how well my portfolio is doing against his.

It's not my favorite nor my natural area of interest but then, neither is cleaning the toilet. Yet both are essential. And the responsibilities should be shared.

It was a joke. You've started from the assumption that my wife and I don't share responsibilities or discuss our finances, so your original post comes across as condescending.

Beyond that my private relationships are immaterial to this thread. Point taken, it's a good reminder, but I topped this thread because I want to learn about finance and investments, and so far all I'm doing is writing this post.
 
Well I've been trying to push our financial responsibilities off on her, but no matter how hard I try I keep getting stuck browsing my Kobo for obscure investment books.

Not what I asked. I asked what your wife's opinion was.

Why look for obscure books? Why not share the responsibilities? Or at least ask her opinion?

I manage my own retirement account via professionals, along with my own research/philosophy and with some advice from my husband, who has been managing his for longer and because he has more professional expertise plus colleagues with considerable expertise. That said, he also keeps me apprised of what is going on and asks my opinion and where our strategies differ, looks to compare how well my portfolio is doing against his.

It's not my favorite nor my natural area of interest but then, neither is cleaning the toilet. Yet both are essential. And the responsibilities should be shared.

It was a joke. You've started from the assumption that my wife and I don't share responsibilities or discuss our finances, so your original post comes across as condescending.

Beyond that my private relationships are immaterial to this thread. Point taken, it's a good reminder, but I topped this thread because I want to learn about finance and investments, and so far all I'm doing is writing this post.

Fair enough. My apologies. Your posts re: your spouse, etc, often seem to me as though you regard her as a child you need to guide and manage. That’s on me, not you.
 
It was a joke. You've started from the assumption that my wife and I don't share responsibilities or discuss our finances, so your original post comes across as condescending.

Beyond that my private relationships are immaterial to this thread. Point taken, it's a good reminder, but I topped this thread because I want to learn about finance and investments, and so far all I'm doing is writing this post.

Fair enough. My apologies. Your posts re: your spouse, etc, often seem to me as though you regard her as a child you need to guide and manage. That’s on me, not you.

No I don't regard my wife as a child that I need to guide and manage, and I don't think I've ever really spoken about her on this forum so I don't know where you would get that impression.
 
It was a joke. You've started from the assumption that my wife and I don't share responsibilities or discuss our finances, so your original post comes across as condescending.

Beyond that my private relationships are immaterial to this thread. Point taken, it's a good reminder, but I topped this thread because I want to learn about finance and investments, and so far all I'm doing is writing this post.

Fair enough. My apologies. Your posts re: your spouse, etc, often seem to me as though you regard her as a child you need to guide and manage. That’s on me, not you.

No I don't regard my wife as a child that I need to guide and manage, and I don't think I've ever really spoken about her on this forum so I don't know where you would get that impression.

As I wrote: it’s on me.
 
I've been investing since high school, and have been managing my parents' retirement accounts since grad school.

By far, the VAST majority of people are best served by putting their money into the lowest-fee index funds they can find, and then not touching it. It's really, really hard to do better than that consistently.

Would you put them all in the same mutual fund? I have read that it can be a good idea to put some of them in emerging markets index funds as they have higher risk, but also higher returns in the long run, if you don't plan to use the money for a long time. What do you think?
 
I've been investing since high school, and have been managing my parents' retirement accounts since grad school.

By far, the VAST majority of people are best served by putting their money into the lowest-fee index funds they can find, and then not touching it. It's really, really hard to do better than that consistently.

Would you put them all in the same mutual fund? I have read that it can be a good idea to put some of them in emerging markets index funds as they have higher risk, but also higher returns in the long run, if you don't plan to use the money for a long time. What do you think?

beero hasn't visited this forum in months, which is too bad because he was a solid source of advice.

I don't know a ton about mutual funds, but everything I've read basically points me to a portfolio diversified with various indexes, and not mutual funds. It comes down to mathematics at that point - any actively managed mutual fund that doesn't use indexing has a really tough time beating a well built portfolio made of indexes. Ideally you also adjust the weights of your portfolio too, but that's next level investing.
 
In the coming decades, climate change is likely to affect the world much more seriously than it already is, with major economic impacts. How does this influence your investments? How should it influence one's investments?
 
Would you put them all in the same mutual fund? I have read that it can be a good idea to put some of them in emerging markets index funds as they have higher risk, but also higher returns in the long run, if you don't plan to use the money for a long time. What do you think?

If I may step in (15 years experience in the high net-worth finance industry in NY, albeit as a Director of Compliance, but it rubs off :D), it wouldn't hurt to invest some of your money in riskier mutual funds, so long as (a) you can afford to lose it and (b) you are relatively young (i.e., under, say, 45 or so).

Mutual funds are already low risk, because they bundle together percentages of ownership in a bunch of different companies (thus, if one company goes bankrupt, you don't lose your shirt). So the risk is already mitigated, but if you're talking about a mutual fund that invests in higher risk companies--like an emerging markets index fund--there is a bit higher risk due to those companies generally having a higher failure rate (for a myriad of different reasons: local laws; volatile governments; fluctuating currency; etc).

If you want to risk a portion of your money on higher risk/higher return funds, then do something like 70% in a more stable fund and 30% in the riskier funds.

beero hasn't visited this forum in months, which is too bad because he was a solid source of advice.

Agreed. I would encourage all to re-read his/her posts.

I don't know a ton about mutual funds, but everything I've read basically points me to a portfolio diversified with various indexes, and not mutual funds.

Just to clarify, mutual funds are index funds (or, rather, can be). An "index fund" is (typically) a mutual fund (or ETF) that invests in and follows certain indices, like the S&P 500 (i.e., the top 500 companies in the world).

Vanguard is widely considered to be the industry leader, but others (like Fidelity and Schwab) have and/or are catching up, particularly with ETFs, which are essentially the same things as mutual funds, only much lower expense ratios and they trade like stocks.

Mutual funds are more "liquid" (meaning they can be converted into cash quickly) than ETFs. Just like a stock, when you sell an ETF it takes three business days before you get your money. The advantage to ETFs, however, is that you can sell them at any point during the day and get the price you just saw locked in, whereas a mutual fund's price is whatever the market value is at the end of the trading day.

Iow, let's say you invested equally in an ETF Index fund and a Mutual Fund Index fund and the value of both at 10 am was up 20% but by close of trading it was down 20%. If you sold your ETF at 10 am, you'd profit mightily. But even if you sold your mutual fund at 10 am, you wouldn't get the +20%, you'd get the -20% because a mutual fund's sell value ("NAV") isn't calculated until end of day.

Here's a good enough article from Fidelity that goes into more detail.

any actively managed mutual fund that doesn't use indexing has a really tough time beating a well built portfolio made of indexes.

Generally speaking, over time, that's correct, but "indexing" really just means following the top stocks (in the given category). A mutual fund can either be actively managed (i.e., a manager decides that today he or she is going to sell out of X) or just passively follow the S&P 500 (i.e., whatever happens in the market happens to the fund).

Ideally you also adjust the weights of your portfolio too, but that's next level investing.

And depends on many factors, but yes. The simplest thing for most investors--especially if we're talking about IRA investing (i.e., long term, "set it and forget it" investing for retirement), investing in something like the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund (mutual fund) and setting your account for dividend reinvest (which is the key to compounding interest), you'll basically be set twenty/thirty years from now.

Yes, you should contribute as much as you can (and ALWAYS contribute the maximum amount to your 401K, especially if your company matches your contributions in any percentage, as that's literally "free" money), but even if you just set your initial investment for dividend reinvest and then forget about it, it will grow exponentially.

Here's a nice mutual fund returns calculator for anyone. It allows you to punch in various scenarios to see how your investment could grow. For example, I did an initial investment of $10,000 with $1,000 added annually into a fund that gives a 10% return (with 0 taxes as I'm thinking of it in an IRA). After 20 years, (i.e., $30,000 capital) that would be worth over $125,000. Doing the same calculation with $12,000 added annually (i.e., $1,000 per month) would yield over $800,000 in 20 years.

So if that's my goal, I need to research mutual funds or ETFs that could reliably yield a 10% return over 20 years. As ETFs are newer to the game, that might be more difficult to find, but I could reasonably extrapolate a 10 year analysis.

And, yes, part of that return needs to factor in fees, so be sure you're looking at returns net of fees.

Morningstar.com is one of the best sites for all such information. And if you're looking for definitions or more information, Investopedia.com is a great resource. As the name suggests, it's an encyclopedia for investing, so it has all the terms and strategies spelled out in layman's terms (more or less).
 
Last edited:
Here’s a good list to start with: Best Index Funds for 2019. For a ten year return percentage click on the asset and then check under “performance.”

And if you go to Morningstar and look up under “portfolio" and then "holdings" you can see what the fund is invested in (and in what percentages).

And here is an excellent piece from Investopedia.com that explains how mutual funds compound interest: How Do Mutual Funds Compound Interest?

Snippet:

For an example of how compound interest can build wealth over time, consider a mutual fund opened with an initial investment of $5,000 and subsequent ongoing annual additions of $2,400. With an average of 12% annual return over 30 years, the future value of the fund is $798,500. The compound interest is the difference between the cash contributed to an investment and the actual future value of the investment. In this case, by contributing $77,000, or a cumulative contribution of just $200 per month over 30 years, compound interest comes to $721,500 of the future balance.
 
Last edited:
In regards to IRA/401K mutual funds, what is the best strategy as to when to contribute to funds. I read that the best strategy is to make regular contributions over the year up to your maximum, I have also read that it is best to contribute everything as early as possible also to not worry about the swings in the market. Myself, I tend to contribute when the markets take a down tick and hold off contributing if the market is really in a high.
 
Back
Top Bottom