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Iowa Caucus

ZiprHead said:
untermensche said:
This is not good news.

While Trump is a worthless buffoon, Cruz if a religious fundamentalist who loves to talk about Jesus all the time.

But I guess it was impossible for there to be good news with that crazed bunch of Republicans running.
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I don't Cruz' win is that big of a deal. He still had almost two thirds of the voters vote against him.
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The election was a major morale victory for Rubio, a disappointment for Trump, and an unknown omen for Cruz. Mainly because the entrance polls indicated a split amongst the evangelical voters. I doubt we'd see such a split in South Carolina though. Trump holds big leads in NH and SC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

The funny thing, the top three received 8, 7, and 7 delegates apiece, respectively. Just to nail home the crazy in the electorate... Carson received 3 delegates, which is approximately 3 more than should be possible.

Meanwhile in the Democrat side of things, Sanders with a massive morale victory and Clinton wins (barely), but that keeps up her campaign too. Odd, the two top runners for the Democrats won Iowa.

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Colonel Sanders said:
For Rubio, this feels more like he's doing the work now so it can be his turn in 2020. If he runs a strong campaign, like Romney did in 2012, but doesn't get the nomination, then he'll probably be the GOP go-to four years from now.
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Except Rubio isn't running for the Senate and has a terrible Senate voting record. This is Rubio's only shot. It isn't as if he'll get a Secretary of State slot in a cabinet.
 
Colonel Sanders said:
bleubird said:
Rand Paul is very charming and funny,but the Libertarian thing is a non starter .Rubio,Cruzio WTF Iowa!
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I have a friend who practically worships the guy. For some reason he can't get it through his head that it's hard to win an election where half of each electorate hates you.
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It is even harder when your whole reason to exist is an adolescent fantasy like libertarianism.
 
ZiprHead said:
I don't Cruz' win is that big of a deal. He still had almost two thirds of the voters vote against him.
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In a crowded field that's hardly surprising. This is a major victory for Cruz though. He can establish himself as the evangelical candidate and pick up support from other evangelical candidates as they drop out like Huckabee just did and Carson will probably do soon. And South Carolina is soon and after that the schedule is very southern.

That said, this was a very good night for Rubio as well which will help him down the line. I think this will become a bruising three man race.
 
ZiprHead said:
untermensche said:
This is not good news.

While Trump is a worthless buffoon, Cruz if a religious fundamentalist who loves to talk about Jesus all the time.

But I guess it was impossible for there to be good news with that crazed bunch of Republicans running.
Click to expand...

I don't Cruz' win is that big of a deal. He still had almost two thirds of the voters vote against him.
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Yeah, but the three Huckabee voters are clearly in his camp.

ETA: make that two. Edna Larson (98 years young) passed away last night in her sleep.
 
You know Athena, some women lie about wanting to have voted in a Caucus. They originally think they should just go to work, but then regret afterwards.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
The election was a major morale victory for Rubio, a disappointment for Trump, and an unknown omen for Cruz. Mainly because the entrance polls indicated a split amongst the evangelical voters. I doubt we'd see such a split in South Carolina though. Trump holds big leads in NH and SC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
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I think it also gives Cruz quite a boost. He might even challenge for SC. On the other hand, if the evangelical vote is split like it was in 2008, Trump wins (like McCain did in 2008). If I was Cruz I'd try to get Carson to drop out. He could promise him surgeon general spot.

The funny thing, the top three received 8, 7, and 7 delegates apiece, respectively. Just to nail home the crazy in the electorate... Carson received 3 delegates, which is approximately 3 more than should be possible.
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There is a lot of alchemy to Iowa caucuses. In 2012, Frothy Mixture barely won the popular vote but got 0 delegates. Romney in 2nd got 6 and Ron Paul in 3rd got, wait for it, 22. At least if these delegate counts hold they will be approximately proportional to the vote counts. But then again, in 2012 approximately proportional delegate counts were predicted as well.

Colonel Sanders said:
Except Rubio isn't running for the Senate and has a terrible Senate voting record. This is Rubio's only shot. It isn't as if he'll get a Secretary of State slot in a cabinet.
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Romney was unemployed between 2008 and 2012 as well. And Republicans usually have a good track record nominating runners up (Bush Sr., Dole, McCain, Romney), 2016 notwithstanding.
 
I am not too surprised that Sanders did so well. Iowa. has a long history embracing populism. 45% of Democrats identify with the label "socialist" and I don't think that they mean it in the same way that Sanders does, a social democrat.
 
ksen said:
Derec said:
Romney was unemployed between 2008 and 2012 as well.
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And it was a terrible time for him and his family. They had to sell some stock to make ends meet.
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Yeah, he was almost as hard up as Hillary.

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What I was referring to is not the money (Rubio will likely go into private practice if he doesn't get a cabinet post) but the fact that not being in public office for 4-8 years will not necessarily preclude him getting the nomination in 2020 or 2024.
 
Carson, Huckabee are also out. Huckabee comes as no surprise, but Carson got a considerable amount of the vote, placing fourth (though a distant forth). I never thought Carson was a serious campaigner, but what does it say when he drops out and people he seriously lapped stay in? Probably Iowa was his best state, though. Not really much point in trying for the rest.

Jeb sucks.
 
Sarpedon said:
Carson, Huckabee are also out. Huckabee comes as no surprise, but Carson got a considerable amount of the vote, placing fourth (though a distant forth). I never thought Carson was a serious campaigner, but what does it say when he drops out and people he seriously lapped stay in? Probably Iowa was his best state, though. Not really much point in trying for the rest.

Jeb sucks.
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Is Carson out? I thought he was just taking a break for a few days. It seems weird that he'd still be running, but not as weird as the fact that there were people voting for him. But ya, a whole bunch of the also-rans should take the opportunity to realize that nobody cares about their campaigns, least of all the GOP primary voters. If just one or two of the establishment type candidates weren't there and most of their votes went to Rubio, Trump would have finished third and that would have changed the entire narrative of his campaign, which is the thing that the establishment is most worried about.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
Sarpedon said:
Carson, Huckabee are also out. Huckabee comes as no surprise, but Carson got a considerable amount of the vote, placing fourth (though a distant forth). I never thought Carson was a serious campaigner, but what does it say when he drops out and people he seriously lapped stay in? Probably Iowa was his best state, though. Not really much point in trying for the rest.

Jeb sucks.
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Is Carson out? I thought he was just taking a break for a few days.
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Yeah, he had to fly home for a change of cloths. Doesn't everyone running for President, spend thousands of dollars to fly home for laundry day?

Five, Four, Three, Two, One....bye bye
 
funinspace said:
Tom Sawyer said:
Is Carson out? I thought he was just taking a break for a few days.
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Yeah, he had to fly home for a change of cloths. Doesn't everyone running for President, spend thousands of dollars to fly home for laundry day?

Five, Four, Three, Two, One....bye bye
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So how many are we left with 12? 14? Republican candidates?
 
Nice Squirrel said:
funinspace said:
Yeah, he had to fly home for a change of cloths. Doesn't everyone running for President, spend thousands of dollars to fly home for laundry day?

Five, Four, Three, Two, One....bye bye
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So how many are we left with 12? 14? Republican candidates?
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Eleven candidates are still in it to win it.
 
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