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Iowa Caucus

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2015
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846
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California
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
It is upon us--Iowa's moment in the national spotlight where they get to tell the winner that they're almost certainly not going to be the President.
Anyway, who wins? Who gets the chance to go home and cry after winning this thing?

For the Dems, a brief and decidedly non-illustrious list follows:

1988: Dick Gephardt (Dukakis ended up as nominee)
1992: Tom Harkin took a 78% share while eventual nominee Bill Clinton got less than 3%
1996: No caucus b/c the guy who'd taken just 2.8% four years prior was now President
2000: Poor Al Gore
2004: Poor Jim Kerrey
2008: Obama!
2012: See 1996

So of the last 5 contested Iowa caucuses, only one winner became POTUS

GOP

1988: Bob Dole! (Bush I wins the Presidency)
1992: Uncontested; Bush I is shown the door by Bill Clinton
1996: Bob Dole! Again! (Squashed by Bill)
2000: Dubbya. Lost to Gore but still became POTUS
2004: Dubbya runs unopposed, still says stupid shit
2008: Mick Huckabee (lost nomination to Bombs Away McCain)
2012 Bob Dole! Just kidding, Santorum won over Romney by the width of a very gay, very repressed pubic hair

So of the last 4 contested caucuses, only one winner has become POTUS.

Go Iowa!!!
 
And for this we get ethanol mandates.

Also:
2004 = John Kerry.
 
Colonel Sanders said:
It is upon us--Iowa's moment in the national spotlight where they get to tell the winner that they're almost certainly not going to be the President.
Anyway, who wins? Who gets the chance to go home and cry after winning this thing?

For the Dems, a brief and decidedly non-illustrious list follows:

1988: Dick Gephardt (Dukakis ended up as nominee)
1992: Tom Harkin took a 78% share while eventual nominee Bill Clinton got less than 3%
1996: No caucus b/c the guy who'd taken just 2.8% four years prior was now President
2000: Poor Al Gore
2004: Poor Jim Kerrey
2008: Obama!
2012: See 1996

So of the last 5 contested Iowa caucuses, only one winner became POTUS

GOP

1988: Bob Dole! (Bush I wins the Presidency)
1992: Uncontested; Bush I is shown the door by Bill Clinton
1996: Bob Dole! Again! (Squashed by Bill)
2000: Dubbya. Lost to Gore but still became POTUS
2004: Dubbya runs unopposed, still says stupid shit
2008: Mick Huckabee (lost nomination to Bombs Away McCain)
2012 Bob Dole! Just kidding, Santorum won over Romney by the width of a very gay, very repressed pubic hair

So of the last 4 contested caucuses, only one winner has become POTUS.

Go Iowa!!!
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Stated another way, every candidate who won Iowa this century, and whose party went on to win the general election, also won the presidency.
 
electoral_precedent.png
 
So soon. Are you sure there shouldn't be a few more debates first?
 
What is the deal with the black box voting over there? There's an app for that?!?

Fuck that, wait a day and count the papers.

I am worried that God Emperor Trump is in danger from Microsoft for panning Common Core. I am serious, no sarcasm.
 
Well, split the difference between the ReThuglicans and the DemonRats.
 
15 minutes to go! This is so exciting. Goodbye Randy Paul! Goodbye Carlie! Can Rubio gain ground? Will Bernie whomp Hillary!
 
Can a mod combine this thread with the one ksen opened with the same name?
 
Well, Cruz seems to be maintaining a comfortable, if not yuge lead over Trump. Rubio is managing to hit the extremely easy target he set for himself: strong third, Updated: holy fuck, he jumped up big in the last update, still third. I have to say that I am amused to see Bush do so shittily. His strategy was not to win Iowa, but it gives me pleasure to see him lose it so badly.
 
Ohh ... I want Trump to win. Come on, Iowans, it's still funny. Don't let it die yet.
 
Also, 10% of the Republicans are voting for Carson. I don't get that. Do they have one of those butterfly ballots there or something?
 
Yay! Gilmore broke 10!

Will Santorum break 1000?
 
Colonel Sanders said:
It is upon us--Iowa's moment in the national spotlight where they get to tell the winner that they're almost certainly not going to be the President.
Click to expand...
Winning Iowa is not everything (well in a virtual two person race like with Dems this year it is), it is how you perform vs. expectations and not ending up too close to the bottom. There is the old maxim of "three tickets out of Iowa" which this year would apply to Republicans, not so much to Democrats. In other words, just like in the first round of Cutthroat Kitchen or Chopped, the main objective is not to lose rather than to win the round.

Anyway, who wins? Who gets the chance to go home and cry after winning this thing?
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O'Malley for sure loses and should drop out. So should several of the Republicans really.

1992: Tom Harkin took a 78% share while eventual nominee Bill Clinton got less than 3%
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He was also from Iowa so it's hardly a good example. Nobody expected his win to say anything about his national viability.
But for Dems you have three nominees (Gore, Kerry, Obama) out of four competitive caucuses (not counting 1992 due to Harkin being a local nor 1996 or 2012). Not bad.

2004: Poor Jim Kerrey
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Is that a love child of John Kerry and Jim Carrey? :eek:

So of the last 5 contested Iowa caucuses, only one winner became POTUS
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I would not call 1992 a contested caucus and I think nomination rather than being elected president is a better gauge since these caucuses are to determine the delegates to the nominating convention. So we have three out of four contested Iowa caucuses becoming the nominee. That's actually a pretty good track record.

2012 Bob Dole! Just kidding, Santorum won over Romney by the width of a very gay, very repressed pubic hair
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In terms of popular vote. Ron Paul won the most delegates.
So of the last 4 contested caucuses, only one winner has become POTUS.
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I count 5 contested caucuses, with 2 (Bush II, Dole) becoming their party nominees. So you could say Iowa is rather predictive of party nominee for Democrats, not so much for Republicans. But again, the main objective is not necessarily to win, but to not lose to badly (relative to expectations).

Go Iowa!!!
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Well they saddled us with these nonsensical corn ethanol subsidies (the only good use of corn ethanol is in bourbon, not engine fuel!), so I would like to amend your statement to "go away Iowa!!!"
 
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