Is Trump a Russian Asset?

[Copernicus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/us/politics/trump-russia-indictment.html?recp=4

According to the NYT, Butina tried to establish a "back channel" for a meeting between Putin and Trump. If the NYT is correct, why would Russia authorize an operation to get a back channel to someone who is already one of their agents?

Angency comes in degrees. How much of an agent was he when Butina was fucking NRA members? Or was that after the RUSSIAN peepee hookers?

The OP article suggests Trump may have been an agent since 1987. Why would Russia need complicated back channels to contact one of its own agents?

All Butina did was try to set up a couple of meetings between Trump anf Putin. That isn't really a "back channel", which is a covert communication pipeline between two governments. Trump obviously wants to be able to discuss matters with Putin that he considers highly confidential. So he now makes a point of conducting secret one-on-one meetings with foreign leaders.

The NYT article that you posted claimed the Butina was also trying to set up "back channel" communications with other Republicans, not just Trump.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

“Agent” is also a strong word. “Asset” is probably the more accurate term, though that too has a specific meaning whithin the intelligence community. Generally, an “agent” is someone that is actively part of the intelligence community, whereas an “asset” is someone that can be used by the intelligence community, but may not be fully integrated. Usually it’s a combination of indebtedness and blackmail, which is evidently precisely what Putin has over Trump. Though with Trump, he never had any loyalty to America to begin with, so he was an easy target to manipulate.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

What I wrote to you is that agency (being an "agent") comes in degrees. So how much of an agent was he really in 1987? how much in 1990? how much in 2000? how much in 2015? how much in 2016?

My point is that in the article, it is suggested that the meeting between Trump and Putin might have been between a Russian asset and his handler. If that was the case, then why would Russia try to establish back door channels to arrange a meeting between Trump and Putin?
That aside, I don't think he was ever an agent in the ordinary sense of the word. The article says "asset", but is specific enough about the strenght of the connection we're talking about.

Don't governments normally have complicated back channels to communicate with agents?

They have channels, of course, though I'm not sure particularly complicated. That might depend on the case. What they do not need to do is try to establish contacts at different levels to eventually get to establish a channel to their agent. The channel is already there. It's their agent.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

If he was an agent say, since 1987, he is now surrounded by the Secret Service, Intelligence personnel, and he lives in the White House. He's gone from being a businessman with almost no oversight to constantly being scrutinized. I fail to see how they would NOT have to reestablish lines of communication. He can't exactly pick up a phone or walk out the back door of the White House to get in touch.

ETA: Which is interesting because we are always seeing reports of him trying to work around established lines of communication, such as trying to use his own phone, etc.

He was not in the WH when Butina was working on establishing such a channel. But moreover, if a Russian agent were getting close to being POTUS (or having a non-negligible chance), Putin would be on it, and Russia would be establishing upgraded links as he approaches his goal. They wouldn't just green-light an operation by a low-level Russian agent (Butina) who doesn't even have clearance to know he's another Russian agent. They would always keep more than one communication channel open. Moreover, if Butina only tried to set up a meeting between Trump and Putin, also why would Russia would want her to set up a meeting between their most valuable agent and their president? That creates all sorts of unnecessary risks.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The OP article suggests Trump may have been an agent since 1987. Why would Russia need complicated back channels to contact one of its own agents?

All Butina did was try to set up a couple of meetings between Trump anf Putin. That isn't really a "back channel", which is a covert communication pipeline between two governments. Trump obviously wants to be able to discuss matters with Putin that he considers highly confidential. So he now makes a point of conducting secret one-on-one meetings with foreign leaders.

The NYT article that you posted claimed the Butina was also trying to set up "back channel" communications with other Republicans, not just Trump.

The back channels with other Republicans make sense. But if she only tried to set up a couple of meetings between Trump anf Putin, I would also say Russia would not approve an operation to try to set up a meeting between their most valuable agent and their president. He's already an agent. That would be a big and pointless risk.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

“Agent” is also a strong word. “Asset” is probably the more accurate term, though that too has a specific meaning whithin the intelligence community. Generally, an “agent” is someone that is actively part of the intelligence community, whereas an “asset” is someone that can be used by the intelligence community, but may not be fully integrated. Usually it’s a combination of indebtedness and blackmail, which is evidently precisely what Putin has over Trump. Though with Trump, he never had any loyalty to America to begin with, so he was an easy target to manipulate.

Okay, so "asset", but my point would be the same. We're talking about someone working for Russia, with a handler and all. Butina's operation seems extremely odd in that context.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Establishing several different means of communication that can’t be easily traced or tracked would still be a necessity for any asset. It’s not like Putin could just call Trump on the phone and say, “Ok, now today you say this and tomorrow you do that” or the like. The need for both Putin and Trump to be reactive and able to coordinate changes in strategy as the months unfolded and the campaign responded to thousands of different variables—driven most likely from the analysis of the cyberwarfare—would be paramount.

It’s not like Putin could just tell Trump at the Miss Universe cover story in Moscow 2013 (when this particular plan was likely first set into motion), “Just follow my lead” and then no longer have any communication system in place between them once the election started. There would need to be a means for Trump to communicate on a regular basis to Putin (my assumption has always been the use of Twitter) and for Putin to in turn communicate back on a far less regular basis.

Iow, the “asset in the field” sends one way communications while the handler only needs to give strategy updates on an as needed basis. But there would absolutely need to be channels set up.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

“Agent” is also a strong word. “Asset” is probably the more accurate term, though that too has a specific meaning whithin the intelligence community. Generally, an “agent” is someone that is actively part of the intelligence community, whereas an “asset” is someone that can be used by the intelligence community, but may not be fully integrated. Usually it’s a combination of indebtedness and blackmail, which is evidently precisely what Putin has over Trump. Though with Trump, he never had any loyalty to America to begin with, so he was an easy target to manipulate.

Okay, so "asset", but my point would be the same. We're talking about someone working for Russia, with a handler and all.

In Trump’s case, the “handler” would have been Putin, so we’re talking about a much higher level of handling and coordination through a series of underlings that in turn would not have any direct contact with Trump. There would need to be a network of stooges and people easily burned/scapegoated (like Cohen or Butina) to be in between Trump and Putin, not just one person doing all the handling.

 

[braces_for_impact]

If he was an agent say, since 1987, he is now surrounded by the Secret Service, Intelligence personnel, and he lives in the White House. He's gone from being a businessman with almost no oversight to constantly being scrutinized. I fail to see how they would NOT have to reestablish lines of communication. He can't exactly pick up a phone or walk out the back door of the White House to get in touch.

ETA: Which is interesting because we are always seeing reports of him trying to work around established lines of communication, such as trying to use his own phone, etc.

He was not in the WH when Butina was working on establishing such a channel. But moreover, if a Russian agent were getting close to being POTUS (or having a non-negligible chance), Putin would be on it, and Russia would be establishing upgraded links as he approaches his goal. They wouldn't just green-light an operation by a low-level Russian agent (Butina) who doesn't even have clearance to know he's another Russian agent. They would always keep more than one communication channel open. Moreover, if Butina only tried to set up a meeting between Trump and Putin, also why would Russia would want her to set up a meeting between their most valuable agent and their president? That creates all sorts of unnecessary risks.

I think you're making some assumptions that we don't know about. We don't know that Trump is an agent. In fact, I would more likely consider him an asset, whether knowingly or unknowingly. Personally, my bet would be that the Trump family who for a long time has had nefarious business practices, decided to make some deals with people. They knew those people were shady, but as they got sucked in deeper they figured out the deals they were making were with some much more high profile and dangerous people. But again that's just supposition on my part.

My point in the entire post is that you have various covert programs running simultaneously. They may overlap, or they may not, but they will push towards a common goal overall. Some will be successful, and they will yield other assets which have different ways of contributing to your cause, and others will not. The other point to remember about Russia is that it's easy to picture Putin the mastermind, running everything and knowing all, but that's not really how Russian intelligence works. Russian intelligence is deeply rooted not just in actual intelligence services like the FSB, but in their technology and banking sectors, and their businesses, especially those businesses of oligarchs that are allied to Putin.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Establishing several different means of communication that can’t be easily traced or tracked would still be a necessity for any asset. It’s not like Putin could just call Trump on the phone and say, “Ok, now today you say this and tomorrow you do that” or the like. The need for both Putin and Trump to be reactive and able to coordinate changes in strategy as the months unfolded and the campaign responded to thousands of different variables—driven most likely from the analysis of the cyberwarfare—would be paramount.

It’s not like Putin could just tell Trump at the Miss Universe cover story in Moscow 2013 (when this particular plan was likely first set into motion), “Just follow my lead” and then no longer have any communication system in place between them once the election started. There would need to be a means for Trump to communicate on a regular basis to Putin (my assumption has always been the use of Twitter) and for Putin to in turn communicate back on a far less regular basis.

Iow, the “asset in the field” sends one way communications while the handler only needs to give strategy updates on an as needed basis. But there would absolutely need to be channels set up.

As I mentioned in a previous post, if a Russian asset were getting close to being POTUS or at least having a non-negligible shot, Putin would be on it, and Russia would be establishing upgraded links as he approaches his goal. They wouldn't just green-light an operation by a low-level Russian agent (Butina) who doesn't even have clearance to know he's another Russian asset. They would always keep more than one communication channel open. Moreover, why would Russia would want her to set up a meeting between their most valuable asset and their president? That creates all sorts of unnecessary risks.

- - - Updated - - -

“Agent” is also a strong word. “Asset” is probably the more accurate term, though that too has a specific meaning whithin the intelligence community. Generally, an “agent” is someone that is actively part of the intelligence community, whereas an “asset” is someone that can be used by the intelligence community, but may not be fully integrated. Usually it’s a combination of indebtedness and blackmail, which is evidently precisely what Putin has over Trump. Though with Trump, he never had any loyalty to America to begin with, so he was an easy target to manipulate.

Okay, so "asset", but my point would be the same. We're talking about someone working for Russia, with a handler and all.

In Trump’s case, the “handler” would have been Putin, so we’re talking about a much higher level of handling and coordination through a series of underlings that in turn would not have any direct contact with Trump. There would need to be a network of stooges and people easily burned/scapegoated (like Cohen or Butina) to be in between Trump and Putin, not just one person doing all the handling.

There would be people with high level clearance doing that auxiliary work, while trying to minimize risks. The channels would be there already, to be used as needed. Butina setting up a meeting and/or trying to establish a channel would seem just weird.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

If he was an agent say, since 1987, he is now surrounded by the Secret Service, Intelligence personnel, and he lives in the White House. He's gone from being a businessman with almost no oversight to constantly being scrutinized. I fail to see how they would NOT have to reestablish lines of communication. He can't exactly pick up a phone or walk out the back door of the White House to get in touch.

ETA: Which is interesting because we are always seeing reports of him trying to work around established lines of communication, such as trying to use his own phone, etc.

He was not in the WH when Butina was working on establishing such a channel. But moreover, if a Russian agent were getting close to being POTUS (or having a non-negligible chance), Putin would be on it, and Russia would be establishing upgraded links as he approaches his goal. They wouldn't just green-light an operation by a low-level Russian agent (Butina) who doesn't even have clearance to know he's another Russian agent. They would always keep more than one communication channel open. Moreover, if Butina only tried to set up a meeting between Trump and Putin, also why would Russia would want her to set up a meeting between their most valuable agent and their president? That creates all sorts of unnecessary risks.

I think you're making some assumptions that we don't know about. We don't know that Trump is an agent. In fact, I would more likely consider him an asset, whether knowingly or unknowingly. Personally, my bet would be that the Trump family who for a long time has had nefarious business practices, decided to make some deals with people. They knew those people were shady, but as they got sucked in deeper they figured out the deals they were making were with some much more high profile and dangerous people. But again that's just supposition on my part.

My point in the entire post is that you have various covert programs running simultaneously. They may overlap, or they may not, but they will push towards a common goal overall. Some will be successful, and they will yield other assets which have different ways of contributing to your cause, and others will not. The other point to remember about Russia is that it's easy to picture Putin the mastermind, running everything and knowing all, but that's not really how Russian intelligence works. Russian intelligence is deeply rooted not just in actual intelligence services like the FSB, but in their technology and banking sectors, and their businesses, especially those businesses of oligarchs that are allied to Putin.

I'm not assuming he's an agent. I'm arguing he is not. But if "asset" is the correct term, my points remain, as long as we're talking about the sort of asset the OP article talks about (i.e., one with a connection strong enough to have a handler).

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

I got the impression SLD was doing so, not merely speaking hypothetically when he talked about telling Republicans he was a foreign agent, given SLD's assessment in the OP. But as before, if the right word is "asset", my points remain as long as we're talking about the kind of asset the OP article talks about, in terms of the strength and nature of his connections to Russia.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

Which is a large part of why I think he's just being manipulated by someone he sees as a friend rather than knowingly working for the Russians.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

Which is a large part of why I think he's just being manipulated by someone he sees as a friend rather than knowingly working for the Russians.

He absolutely knows he’s Putin’s puppet, he just doesn’t care. He likes Putin, or at least the version of Putin that Putin has allowed him to see over the years. He’s been actively and continuously surveiled by “Soviet” intelligence since the seventies. There is a good argument to be made that both Maria and Ivana are/were actual agents, not merely assets (but certainly “assets” as well).

Trump likely just sees it all as a cost of doing business hierarchy. He certainly has no patriotism or any thoughts other than “what benefits Trump.” His mentor was Roy Cohn ffs and he surrounded himself with Stone and Bannon. He just doesn’t give a shit so long as he’s making money and everyone in his employ sucks his cock on a daily basis (some literally).

His mindset is mafiosa through and through. No normal rules apply and “government” is his toilet, nothing more. He thinks he’s a king because everyone—including Putin—tells him he is and treats him like he is, so why would he care about things he thinks are beneath him or simply not applicable to him? He wasn’t kidding when he said he could murder someone in broad daylight and get away with it. He literally believes that’s true and for very good reason. He always gets whatever he wants.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

I got the impression SLD was doing so, not merely speaking hypothetically when he talked about telling Republicans he was a foreign agent, given SLD's assessment in the OP. But as before, if the right word is "asset", my points remain as long as we're talking about the kind of asset the OP article talks about, in terms of the strength and nature of his connections to Russia.

Yeah, me, too. My point remains, too. If we're talking about the kind of asset that is almost an agent, then Trump is too stupid. Q.E.D.

 

[SLD]

Here’s an interesting take. If Trump truly was a Russian asset, he would’ve denounced Putin unequivocally. Instead he’s just compromised. He’s afraid of what they have on him.

https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat

SLD

 

[Copernicus]

I suspect that Trump's deference to Putin goes back to his promise to lift sanctions in exchange for help in winning the election. He and Putin believe that he should be able to do that, but he has been stymied by his political enemies. Putin may have kompromat on him--almost certainly does in a financial sense--but that isn't why Trump is so Putin-friendly. It is another way of paying his patron back for past favors.

 

[barbos]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

He is too stupid to be a tool, I mean asset.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Personally, I think Trump is too stupid to be an agent, ...

Q.E.D.

... but then again, no one called him one.

He is too stupid to be a tool, I mean asset.

His intelligence is adequate enough and he cares so much about himself that it makes him a decent compromised asset.