Let's Face It...Trump is going to Win.

[maxparrish]

As I may have noted here earlier, the replacement of Manafort with Ailes, Bannon, and Kellyann Conway turned the Trump campaign around. In particular Ailes and Conway seem to have found a way to make Trump look like a normal human being most (but not all) the time. Combined with the endless "drip-drip" of negative news over Hillary's health, new email revelations (e.g. FBI grants of immunity to Clinton characters), and Trumps relentless jabs the gap has narrowed to a tie in at least three national polls. And some battleground polls show a tie in Colorado and Penn.

In addition, Nate Silver's projection's keep getting worse for Hillary. Here is a chart of the "probability" of a win for Clinton and Trump, if the election were held today.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#now

Clinton only has a 54 percent chance of wining...essentially a tossup. Today's debate may give her a tiny bounce (1 or 2 percent) but that will fade. Trump will be better prepared for the next debate (a townhall?) and that will be right up his alley. Pence will likely cream Kaine in the VP debate.

Big Mo has been on Trump's side since Sept 3rd. Any day now, either Colorado, NH, or Penn will start leaning Trump (most likely within 10 days or less).

Poor Joe Biden, the guy that could have stomped Trump.

The new Chief of Staff? Rumored to be Steve Bannon of Breitbart. Welcome to "alt-right" America.

Or as Kent Brockman could have said: "I , for one, welcome our new whack-a-doodle overlord".

 

[whichphilosophy]

As I may have noted here earlier, the replacement of Manafort with Ailes, Bannon, and Kellyann Conway turned the Trump campaign around. In particular Ailes and Conway seem to have found a way to make Trump look like a normal human being most (but not all) the time. Combined with the endless "drip-drip" of negative news over Hillary's health, new email revelations (e.g. FBI grants of immunity to Clinton characters), and Trumps relentless jabs the gap has narrowed to a tie in at least three national polls. And some battleground polls show a tie in Colorado and Penn.

In addition, Nate Silver's projection's keep getting worse for Hillary. Here is a chart of the "probability" of a win for Clinton and Trump, if the election were held today.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#now

Clinton only has a 54 percent chance of wining...essentially a tossup. Today's debate may give her a tiny bounce (1 or 2 percent) but that will fade. Trump will be better prepared for the next debate (a townhall?) and that will be right up his alley. Pence will likely cream Kaine in the VP debate.

Big Mo has been on Trump's side since Sept 3rd. Any day now, either Colorado, NH, or Penn will start leaning Trump (most likely within 10 days or less).

Poor Joe Biden, the guy that could have stomped Trump.

The new Chief of Staff? Rumored to be Steve Bannon of Breitbart. Welcome to "alt-right" America.

Or as Kent Brockman could have said: "I , for one, welcome our new whack-a-doodle overlord".

Anything is possible. If the mud slinging is true in all cases, then two corrupt invalids are campaigning against each other, with real issues side-tracked.

 

[Deepak]

Anything is possible. If the mud slinging is true in all cases, then two corrupt invalids are campaigning against each other, with real issues side-tracked.

The main issue is that either of them harm themselves by opening their mouths. Clinton has the further handicap that her history of opaqueness means remaining too quiet also hurts her. This one's going to be a photo finish.

 

[Blackclaw]

While a Trump win is possibly, it is by no means a certainty. Clinton maintains a narrow lead and performed well in the debate. Meanwhile, Trump has decided to get into a fight with a former Miss Universe and Rosie O'Donnell. He gets into unneccessary spats all the time. These unneeded verbal conflicts always result in revealing him to be a thin-skinned tempermental child. We can count on him finding ways to continue to hurt his chances all the way up to the election.

 

[iolo]

Any country that decides to have Trump as a Head of State is finished, let's face it. Let's hope that, if it happens, any successor states will be saner.

 

[Jayjay]

The only real measure of debate performance is how it impacts the polling numbers, and right now there has not been time for it to take effect.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#plus

Seems like Trump, not Clinton is getting a boost from the debate monday. But so far that's just one LA times poll that was conducted mostly over the weekend so I'd say it's more about the build-up to the debate rather than the debate itself.

 

[Juma]

Anything is possible. If the mud slinging is true in all cases, then two corrupt invalids are campaigning against each other, with real issues side-tracked.

The main issue is that either of them harm themselves by opening their mouths.

This is so weird... Howis Clinton harming herself? Trump doesnt say anything that doesnt stink, but Clinton???

 

[Horatio Parker]

Actually, Clinton trended up before the debate. We'll know more Friday.

http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-meta-analysis/

 

[cycomiko]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. The fact that Trump is even being considered an equal candidate to Clinton tells me that we may be finished even if he doesn't get elected.

 

[HaRaAYaH]

Going into the debate, I agreed with the OP. I think Trump really hurt himself. He has to win suburban white women to take states like Pennsylvania. In a focus group with PA voters, Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, Trump crashed and burned. The polls will say something at the end of the week. I predict she will either be back in the lead or she will have stopped his momentum.

 

[another1]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. The fact that Trump is even being considered an equal candidate to Clinton tells me that we may be finished even if he doesn't get elected.

Yes Trump should not be where he is at right now. The fact that he is there shows exactly where WE are. Not sure how it happened because politics were never my thing. Overnight it seemed. Too late to start caring about politics now! Way too late.

 

[Trausti]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. The fact that Trump is even being considered an equal candidate to Clinton tells me that we may be finished even if he doesn't get elected.

If it wasn't for the stupidity of the American public, we would have been spared the decrepit carcass that is Obamacare. Right Gruber!

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

The fact that Trump is there shows how stupid and easily fooled the American public is. The fact that Hillary is there shows how naive and easily fooled the American public is. He is crazy. She is corrupt. It is jaw dropping that these are the two choices. It SCREAMS out for the need to break the two party system.

 

[Trausti]

The fact that Trump is there shows how stupid and easily fooled the American public is. The fact that Hillary is there shows how naive and easily fooled the American public is. He is crazy. She is corrupt. It is jaw dropping that these are the two choices. It SCREAMS out for the need to break the two party system.

The two party system is fine. We have so many checks and balances that whoever is elected things mostly remain the same.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Going into the debate, I agreed with the OP. I think Trump really hurt himself. He has to win suburban white women to take states like Pennsylvania. In a focus group with PA voters, Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, Trump crashed and burned. The polls will say something at the end of the week. I predict she will either be back in the lead or she will have stopped his momentum.

At his peak, Clinton was still winning the election. This would be shifting it to a larger victory.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. The fact that Trump is even being considered an equal candidate to Clinton tells me that we may be finished even if he doesn't get elected.

If it wasn't for the stupidity of the American public, we would have been spared the decrepit carcass that is Obamacare. Right Gruber!

Yup. We'd have UHC instead.

The fact that Trump is there shows how stupid and easily fooled the American public is. The fact that Hillary is there shows how naive and easily fooled the American public is. He is crazy. She is corrupt.

Moore-Coulter. Trump is a corrupt, pathological lying, misogynistic sociopath with no political experience. Clinton is corrupt with sociopathic tendencies.

 

[maxparrish]

I think posters are putting way to much emphasis on the first debate. Obama turned it around in the second and third debates, and the first debate became moot. Moreover, it seems that the next debate is a townhall format which has been Trump's strength.

The Townhall debate may turn into an ambush for Hillary. The network(s) have agreed to draw from questions on the Internet. The questions are submitted at a website, and voted on for inclusion. As might be predicted, the "alt-right" and Trumpers have flooded the site and almost ALL the questions asked will favor Trump...here is the top ten:

How will you ensure the 2nd amendment is protected? - 1509 votes
Why are government officials who fail to protect classified info not prosecuted? - 1425 votes
Would you be willing to either repeal or repair/rework the Affordable Care Act? - 1352 votes
Why do we continue to provide aid to countries that are obviously NOT our allies? - 1240 votes
If elected will you secure the border? - 1148 votes
How would you change the tax code to encourage companies to remain in the US? - 1060 votes
Do you support the constitution of the United States as it is written? - 1008 votes
Do you support term limits for Congress? - 981 votes
Globalism, why do you support it or oppose it and why? - 894 votes
What will you do to ensure greater transparency and accountability in government? - 869 votes
- See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/...or-a-conservative-ambush#sthash.NGhskjSj.dpuf

Securing the border? Globalism? Prosecution of those failing to protect government secrets? Foreign aid? Those issues will put Hillary on the defensive.

Anyway, Trump's 'mo' has never been interrupted except by his own behavior. People are looking for an excuse to get rid of Clinton, and they keep hoping Trump will provide that excuse. He does well when he behaves, and implodes when he does not. It's really outside of Hillary's control.

Therefore, I expect Trump to behave and do well in Debate 2 and 3, and Trumpolini to be our new Presidential overlord.

 

[another1]

She is corrupt. It is jaw dropping that these are the two choices

At least Hillary is a professional politician who practiced for this her entire life.

Billionaires shouldn't be allowed to get this far by tapping into our psychologicals. He said that he hasn't been running commercials or whatever, but the past year has been nothing but a big commercial everywhere you look. Tired of it.

 

[cycomiko]

The fact that Trump is there shows how stupid and easily fooled the American public is. The fact that Hillary is there shows how naive and easily fooled the American public is. He is crazy. She is corrupt. It is jaw dropping that these are the two choices. It SCREAMS out for the need to break the two party system.

How many of them aren't corrupt in some way? Even with these two poor choices, only one is even remotely fit to be president of the US. I don't trust Clinton, or any politician at the national level, to have my best interests in mind. But I also don't trust Trump to not start a war over a tweet or to not shoot his mouth off and interrupt foreign heads of state when he disagrees with them. When it comes to a choice between a shady politician and a crazy man, I'll take the politician every time.

 

[laughing dog]

I am glad the old maxparrish is back: witty, amusing and reality-based. He tends to be rather a gloomy gus about the direction of civilization and US society in general. I certainly hope is prediction is wrong (and I think he hopes so as well).

 

[ksen]

The fact that Trump is there shows how stupid and easily fooled the American public is. The fact that Hillary is there shows how naive and easily fooled the American public is. He is crazy. She is corrupt. It is jaw dropping that these are the two choices. It SCREAMS out for the need to break the two party system.

The two party system is fine. We have so many checks and balances that whoever is elected things mostly remain the same.

I would suggest that the system being rigged so not much changes despite which party is in power is evidence that our two party system is not "fine".