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Let's face it... we have no fucking idea who will win.

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At least we know who the losers will be...
 
You don't accept election forecasts based on polling? Past performance is not a guarantee, but is a good indicator.
 
blastula said:
You don't accept election forecasts based on polling? Past performance is not a guarantee, but is a good indicator.
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The problem with polling in this election is that many Trump supporters are not admitting in pleasant company that they will be voting for him. Paraphrasing Bill Maher - voting for Trump is like autoerotic asphyxiation where people prefer to do it in private.
 
Deepak said:
blastula said:
You don't accept election forecasts based on polling? Past performance is not a guarantee, but is a good indicator.
Click to expand...

The problem with polling in this election is that many Trump supporters are not admitting in pleasant company that they will be voting for him. Paraphrasing Bill Maher - voting for Trump is like autoerotic asphyxiation where people prefer to do it in private.
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Likewise a lot of republican voters are not admitting they will vote for Clinton, I think.
 
Rhea said:
Deepak said:
The problem with polling in this election is that many Trump supporters are not admitting in pleasant company that they will be voting for him. Paraphrasing Bill Maher - voting for Trump is like autoerotic asphyxiation where people prefer to do it in private.
Click to expand...

Likewise a lot of republican voters are not admitting they will vote for Clinton, I think.
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I certainly don't doubt it, and in fact I'd bet dollars to donuts that Cruz will be voting Clinton. That said, I think a 4 - 6 % lead in polls for Clinton aren't as telling in this election. And it only gets tighter when you start drawing error bars. At least recreational marijuana is up for a referendum in MA.
 
Real Clear Politics and Huffington Polls plus others aggregate polls show Hillary about 5% ahead. Early voting seems to be showing a surge for Clinton. In California there is an amazing surge of registration demonstrating an amazing surge for Clinton. In many states, Trump has no ground game but the Clinton effort is massive. With only 32 days to go til voting day, Clinton is making headway. She will win and Trump's only hope is if Clinton is felled by a massive heart attack.
 
Still a month to go yet, so there's a possibility that Trump will sabotage his campaign by saying something stupid, or racist, or that's a flat-out lie, causing people to abandon his candidacy.

Jeez, writing sarcastically is easy this election.


That aside, since it has become a two person race (sorry Gary and Jill) the national polls have had Clinton with a few percentage points on Trump very consistently. The gap goes up and down, but on average she's been ahead in just about every individual poll and aggregate of polls for months. Trump has never opened up a lead of any kind on Clinton.

Of course, where the rubber hits the road is the electoral vote, and the sites which track that (including Five Thirty Eight, Real Clear Politics, and ElectoralVote.com) have Clinton heavily favored to win. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money (what little I have) on Trump claiming the election was rigged about a month from now.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Real Clear Politics and Huffington Polls plus others aggregate polls show Hillary about 5% ahead. Early voting seems to be showing a surge for Clinton. In California there is an amazing surge of registration demonstrating an amazing surge for Clinton. In many states, Trump has no ground game but the Clinton effort is massive. With only 32 days to go til voting day, Clinton is making headway. She will win and Trump's only hope is if Clinton is felled by a massive heart attack.
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I think Clinton dying of a heart attack would be a net gain for the Dem ticket. She's not well liked and most voters would probably select a "President to be named later" over Trump.
 
whichphilosophy said:
It's a matter of voting for the least worst candidate.
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There is no contest. Clinton is cunning, distrustful, well prepared. Trump is ill prepared, ill tempered, and the most ill conceived general election candidate ever in our history.

This election proves that right-wingers will vote for just about anything other than Hillary Clinton or even a Democrat.
 
GenesisNemesis said:
And stop pretending you know.
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I don't know, but I'm willing to bet even money that Clinton wins.
Not expecting any takers... OTOH, if I were to make the same offer to bet even money on Trumples, I am quite sure that many people would be happy to take me up on it.
 
I think HRC is in pretty good shape at this time, but I wouldn't say it's decided or it cannot change in DT's direction. Still 2 more debates to go, and no telling what may happen between now & the polls closing that may affect the results.
 
Does anyone else think that if any of those other republican candidates were running instead of Trump, even Rick the Dick Perry, that Clinton would be fighting a losing battle?

Trump is presently her greatest strength. Without him I don't think there's much of a race. It illustrates nicely that Clinton is unpopular, and that most Republicans are stupid.
 
joedad said:
Does anyone else think that if any of those other republican candidates were running instead of Trump, even Rick the Dick Perry, that Clinton would be fighting a losing battle?

Trump is presently her greatest strength. Without him I don't think there's much of a race. It illustrates nicely that Clinton is unpopular, and that most Republicans are stupid.
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I don't know. The main strength of Trump's message is that he's going to change the system because the system sucks and the average person is getting screwed by it. All of the other potential candidates were as much political insiders as Clinton is. That would undercut the primary attack used against Clinton and make it into a much more traditional race, which she'd do pretty well at. Her unpopularity would still be a factor, but I don't know if her numbers would be significantly different than they are today.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Real Clear Politics and Huffington Polls plus others aggregate polls show Hillary about 5% ahead. Early voting seems to be showing a surge for Clinton. In California there is an amazing surge of registration demonstrating an amazing surge for Clinton. In many states, Trump has no ground game but the Clinton effort is massive. With only 32 days to go til voting day, Clinton is making headway. She will win and Trump's only hope is if Clinton is felled by a massive heart attack.
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Doesn't early voting usually favor the Republicans?
 
RavenSky said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Real Clear Politics and Huffington Polls plus others aggregate polls show Hillary about 5% ahead. Early voting seems to be showing a surge for Clinton. In California there is an amazing surge of registration demonstrating an amazing surge for Clinton. In many states, Trump has no ground game but the Clinton effort is massive. With only 32 days to go til voting day, Clinton is making headway. She will win and Trump's only hope is if Clinton is felled by a massive heart attack.
Click to expand...

Doesn't early voting usually favor the Republicans?
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In some cases no. In some locations, black voters used early voting a lot so the GOP tried to hamper early voting. We will have to wait for the election post-mortem to see what happened here though.
 
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