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Maybe NO-BREXIT-DEAL is the best outcome.

Lumpenproletariat

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Suppose there is NO Brexit deal, because the British cannot agree on anything. What then?

What would prevent Britain from still doing trade? It doesn't follow from no-Brexit-deal that then all imports have to be prohibited. On the contrary, the default position would be to allow whatever happens to happen. Why couldn't the trade continue, at least into Britain, with no tariffs? Doesn't trade just happen, if the government does nothing? What prevents it from happening?

Or, perhaps as an emergency measure there could be some uniform low tariff on all imports with no distinction of product types or industries or origin, low enough to not impede the needed trade -- as a default plan with there being no official policy on the new rules. This might be done by the May government in desperation, having no alternative, without Parliament agreeing to anything. And Parliament still would not oust her, with there being no unified opposition to her.

If there's no law, how can her administration be blamed for what happens? In the lack of any agreed trade arrangement, still something has to happen, and her approach could be to step aside and let the trade go on, with the very minimum of action by the government. Anything she does basically violates the law anyway, with Parliament not approving it, so it's impossible for her to obey the law -- and yet the nation cannot survive without some of the needed trade that has been going on.

So the result might then be UNILATERAL FREE TRADE of a sort, until something is finally approved by Parliament. Which might just never happen.

But meanwhile, the trade cannot be stopped, because that would essentially be a national disaster, destroying the country's economy. She would be obligated to do the MINIMUM NECESSARY to avoid an economic collapse of the whole nation. And that minimum would be to allow some form of unilateral free trade, until something official could be finally decided by Parliament.

And maybe that unilateral free trade would turn out to be the best possible outcome.

Perhaps it would also include something like OPEN BORDERS, at least for all the British Isles, and perhaps to other European countries. This too might be the best outcome.

So, what if the outcome would be unilateral free trade and open borders, not chosen as policy, but just happening because it would be the LEAST violation of the official law? While the petty politicians and special interests and labor union thugs and corporate welfare quacks and demagogues and nativist idiots are screaming at each other (over how to best screw the consumers), the country accidentally stumbles into the best economic system toward other nations.

How would this not be good for the world, as well as for Britain? What would prevent this from happening, if Parliament cannot decide on anything?
 
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Assuming this is a serious question, in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit British trade with the EU (and everybody else, since Britain has no separate trade agreements with anyone) will revert to WTO rules, with a prescribed set of tariffs on pretty much everything.
 
A No Brexit deal could not possibly result on open borders. The EU has internal open borders. With Great Britain outside of the EU, that reduces the open borders. Moreover, the open borders withing the EU was one of the motivations for the Brexit vote in the first place.

The EU has more open trade within its borders. With Great Britain outside of the EU, that trade will no longer be open or as free. It is delusional to think that the EU would allow free trade with Great Britain.
 
Ya, why would the EU agree to that? It would be dumb and undercut the rationale for every other country being a part of it.
 
Assuming this is a serious question, in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit British trade with the EU (and everybody else, since Britain has no separate trade agreements with anyone) will revert to WTO rules, with a prescribed set of tariffs on pretty much everything.

What?

How can the WTO prescribe any tariffs on Britain or any other country? Does the WTO have a trade police force going into countries and imposing tariffs onto them?
 
How could a No-Brexit-Deal lead anywhere but toward open borders and free trade?

A No Brexit deal could not possibly result on open borders. The EU has internal open borders. With Great Britain outside of the EU, that reduces the open borders.

Not if Britain just does nothing about its borders, leaving them open so that migrants could freely enter.

Open borders does not depend on EU membership. Why couldn't a country choose open borders while also being a non-member of the EU? The EU didn't invent open borders. It doesn't have some patent or copyright on open borders. No one has to receive permission from the EU in order to decide to open its borders.


Moreover, the open borders within the EU was one of the motivations for the Brexit vote in the first place.

OK, you mean there are Brits who want more control of the borders. But neither they nor any other group is getting its way, because there's no deal. As long as there's no deal, what happens with the borders? Who says any borders have to be closed? Who's going to close them? The British cannot act if there's no deal. Which means it cannot close the borders.

Open borders is the default arrangement if there's no deal. You can have open borders with no deal, because open borders just means no one does anything. But in order to close the border or impose restrictions, there has to be a deal defining the limits to border crossings. With no deal, there can be no such limits or defining.

So No-Brexit-Deal would likely lead toward open borders. Who's going to go to the border and shut it down? or restrict it? Where's their authorization to do that? With no deal, they have no authority to restrict anything. No deal means there's no law, no policy, no government action. And yet in the meantime, migrants will choose on their own to cross the border. So, who's going to stop them if there's no deal?


The EU has more open trade within its borders. With Great Britain outside of the EU, that trade will no longer be open or as free.

Why? What's stopping the trade if the British government doesn't stop it? or restrict it?

Why does Britain need the EU in order to let trade happen? The EU did not invent free trade. Why couldn't free trade simply happen once there is no longer any trade deal or law saying what the new trade terms are?

Why couldn't the May government just say they won't do anything to stop the trade, because there's no law telling them what restrictions to apply?

How can the absence of any trade law lead to anything but to more and freer trade?


It is delusional to think that the EU would allow free trade with Great Britain.

That's nonsensical. How would the EU stop free trade from going on, in Britain or anywhere else? Trade does not require permission from the EU in order to happen.

If you want to sell something to your neighbor, do the two of you need permission from the EU or from NAFTA or the WTO etc. in order to be able to do that transaction?

What is there about the EU that it would ever DISallow any trade to happen, between anyone? What EU rule is there which disallows any nation, even EU members, from trading with some other nation? or imposes any restrictions on their trading with another nation? What would the EU gain, or member nations gain, by imposing trade bans on any nation?

The purpose of the EU is to promote more trade, not impose trade bans, or curtail trade. The negotiations are always aimed at getting each nation to reduce its restrictions, not to increase them.
 
If no exit deal is made with the EU then there will be a 'hard exit' on 29th of March next year. The UK would lose the tariff free trade with the EU. The UK would just become like any other country that is not in the EU. The UK would then be free to negotiate trade deals with any or all countries in the rest of the world and would have full control of the laws within the UK and their borders.

The EU would loose its tariff free trade with the UK and their control of UK laws.

As I understand from outside (way outside), the original argument of the Brexit movement was that the Brexiters didn't think free trade within the union was worth the loss of their control of their government and the anti-Brexiters thought free trade within the block while ceding governance of the UK to Brussels was dandy.

It looks to me like the greatest stumbling block now is agreement of limits of free travel across the Ireland (EU) and Northern Ireland (UK) border.

But hey WTF, that is just my impression from well outside any of the fruckus going on there. I don't think that there would have been any movement in the UK if the system had remained as the EEC which was the original agreement. The evolution from EEC to EC and finally to the EU was apparently a step too far for the independent minded among the Brits.
 
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Not if Britain just does nothing about its borders, leaving them open so that migrants could freely enter.
<noise>
This statement is pretty much Lumpy declaring he is clearly clueless regarding just what the Brits voted for with the Brexit choice they made...

Lumpy, is there some alternate universe that also has a large Island named Britain?
 
Not if Britain just does nothing about its borders, leaving them open so that migrants could freely enter....
True, but that will happen when pigs fly. There is absolutely no evidence that the British want open borders. One of the reasons Brexit passed was the rage against the open borders of the EU.



Why? What's stopping the trade if the British government doesn't stop it? or restrict it?
There are two issues for Britain: imports and exports. Britain can let all the imports it wants for free. But it is delusional to think the EU will allow Britain to trade without restrictions. And it is delusional to think that most of the rest of the world will let British exports in with no restrictions or tariffs. Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?
 
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There are two issues for Britain: imports and exports. Britain can let all the imports it wants for free. But it is delusional to think the EU will allow Britain to trade without restrictions. And it is delusional to think that most of the rest of the world will let British exports in with no restrictions or tariffs. Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?
There are three issues; home rule, imports. and exports. If there is a hard exit then the UK will negotiate new trade deals. US, Kenya, and China could well give them a more favorable trade deal than they currently have with the EU. The US has already offered them a better deal if they leave if they offer import duties lower than the EU import duties.

From my take, it was the home rule issue that was the driving force of the Brexit movement.
 
If no exit deal is made with the EU then there will be a 'hard exit' on 29th of March next year. The UK would lose the tariff free trade with the EU. The UK would just become like any other country that is not in the EU. The UK would then be free to negotiate trade deals with any or all countries in the rest of the world and would have full control of the laws within the UK and their borders.

i.e. Britain will be "free" to trade with the world's low-wage, shit-working-conditions, child-labour-friendly shit holes, and British workers will be "fee" to compete with them.

For trade with everywhere else, British trade will default to WTO conditions and HIGHER tariffs. We'll be free to request sweet deals, but we won't get them because it's in nowhere else's interests to give us sweet deals, especially once we're outside the EU.

The EU would loose its tariff free trade with the UK and their control of UK laws.

As I understand from outside (way outside), the original argument of the Brexit movement was that the Brexiters didn't think free trade within the union was worth the loss of their control of their government and the anti-Brexiters thought free trade within the block while ceding governance of the UK to Brussels was dandy.

It looks to me like the greatest stumbling block now is agreement of limits of free travel across the Ireland (EU) and Northern Ireland (UK) border.

But hey WTF, that is just my impression from well outside any of the fruckus going on there. I don't think that there would have been any movement in the UK if the system had remained as the EEC which was the original agreement. The evolution from EEC to EC and finally to the EU was apparently a step too far for the independent minded among the Brits.

You have no idea what you're on about (and I'm no fan of the EU).
 
There are two issues for Britain: imports and exports. Britain can let all the imports it wants for free. But it is delusional to think the EU will allow Britain to trade without restrictions. And it is delusional to think that most of the rest of the world will let British exports in with no restrictions or tariffs. Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?
There are three issues; home rule, imports. and exports. If there is a hard exit then the UK will negotiate new trade deals. US, Kenya, and China could well give them a more favorable trade deal than they currently have with the EU. The US has already offered them a better deal if they leave if they offer import duties lower than the EU import duties.
Which is not free trade.
 
There are two issues for Britain: imports and exports. Britain can let all the imports it wants for free. But it is delusional to think the EU will allow Britain to trade without restrictions. And it is delusional to think that most of the rest of the world will let British exports in with no restrictions or tariffs. Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?
There are three issues; home rule, imports. and exports. If there is a hard exit then the UK will negotiate new trade deals. US, Kenya, and China could well give them a more favorable trade deal than they currently have with the EU. The US has already offered them a better deal if they leave if they offer import duties lower than the EU import duties.
Which is not free trade.
Why would you think that I said it was? I was responding to your, "Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?"
 
Which is not free trade.
Why would you think that I said it was? I was responding to your, "Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?"
Because my comment was responding to the claim of FREE TRADE not better trade deals.
 
Which is not free trade.
Why would you think that I said it was? I was responding to your, "Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?"
Because my comment was responding to the claim of FREE TRADE not better trade deals.

There was no claim of FREE TRADE in the post you were responding to....

Included here for you to read again:
There are two issues for Britain: imports and exports. Britain can let all the imports it wants for free. But it is delusional to think the EU will allow Britain to trade without restrictions. And it is delusional to think that most of the rest of the world will let British exports in with no restrictions or tariffs. Why should the US or Kenya or China change its trade policy with Great Britain just because it is no longer in the EU?
There are three issues; home rule, imports. and exports. If there is a hard exit then the UK will negotiate new trade deals. US, Kenya, and China could well give them a more favorable trade deal than they currently have with the EU. The US has already offered them a better deal if they leave if they offer import duties lower than the EU import duties.

From my take, it was the home rule issue that was the driving force of the Brexit movement.

Though the UK could negotiate a free trade deal between themselves and any other country that was amenable.

ETA:
Maybe you misread... Since I was talking about the US or Kenya or China you should read that "they" that is highlighted is those countries. Those countries could certainly make a better deal with and for the UK than they (those three countries) currently have with the EU. The EU's trade policy is extremely protective and there is no reason to assume that the UK would be as isolationist as the EU is.
 
Because my comment was responding to the claim of FREE TRADE not better trade deals.

There was no claim of FREE TRADE in the post you were responding to....
You responded to a portion of my response to Lumpenproletariat’s response to me (post 7 in this thread). I clipped out most of his word salad, but I did respond to free trade. Because I try to respect poster's intelligence most of the time, I will not reproduce that word salad but you can wade through post 7 if you dare.
 
If no exit deal is made with the EU then there will be a 'hard exit' on 29th of March next year. The UK would lose the tariff free trade with the EU. The UK would just become like any other country that is not in the EU. The UK would then be free to negotiate trade deals with any or all countries in the rest of the world and would have full control of the laws within the UK and their borders.

The EU would loose its tariff free trade with the UK and their control of UK laws.

As I understand from outside (way outside), the original argument of the Brexit movement was that the Brexiters didn't think free trade within the union was worth the loss of their control of their government and the anti-Brexiters thought free trade within the block while ceding governance of the UK to Brussels was dandy.

It looks to me like the greatest stumbling block now is agreement of limits of free travel across the Ireland (EU) and Northern Ireland (UK) border.

But hey WTF, that is just my impression from well outside any of the fruckus going on there. I don't think that there would have been any movement in the UK if the system had remained as the EEC which was the original agreement. The evolution from EEC to EC and finally to the EU was apparently a step too far for the independent minded among the Brits.

That's 29 March THIS year. Ten weeks from now.

Not a lot of time in which to strike a deal - May's shit deal that got voted down by the biggest defeat in Commons history took twenty MONTHS to negotiate.

If by some miracle a new, less shit, deal materialised from thin air tomorrow, there would barely be time for parliament to debate and vote on it.


Oh, and don't make the common error of thinking that this had anything to do with the brits, or independent mindedness.

The whole clusterfuck started as an internal party political fight amongst a few hundred tory MPs, and was then blown up into an issue from nothing by a handful of wealthy racist cunts. The only contribution of the collective 'mind of the brits' to any of this was the switching off of critical thinking by a sizeable minority who don't like the number of Polish plumbers they are now encountering, because foreigners scare them.
 
Assuming this is a serious question, in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit British trade with the EU (and everybody else, since Britain has no separate trade agreements with anyone) will revert to WTO rules, with a prescribed set of tariffs on pretty much everything.

What?

How can the WTO prescribe any tariffs on Britain or any other country? Does the WTO have a trade police force going into countries and imposing tariffs onto them?

No.

Britain is a signatory to the Marrakesh Agreement, which established the WTO, and has therefore agreed to abide by its rules (when they are not superseded by other treaties).
 
There is now no possible Brexit outcome that some faction hasn't ruled out.. feckin ridiculous.

The whole sorry mess tells you something about "free trade" : There is no such thing and never was. The EU will not accept any "free trade" deal that compromises the 4 freedoms : free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Brexiteers still want to cherry-pick a deal and still seem to think that doing so for national advantage makes it "free trade".

Markets are human institutions with rules made up by humans. And the parties with the power generally make the rules. In this case, the EU.
 
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