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Mixed Opinions about US Party System

lpetrich

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Voters Have Mixed Opinions About America’s Party System
In our survey we found that most voters do not prefer this two-party arrangement. A plurality (41 percent) of voters think there should be more than two parties. Only 20 percent think there should be exactly two parties, while 14 percent said there should be fewer than two parties, with the remaining 25 percent reporting that they weren’t sure.

This finding is somewhat discordant with the apparent increase in partisanship. Both Democrats and Republicans want an alternative to the status quo. What they want this alternative to be isn’t clear, however. There are some who try to offer a socially liberal and fiscally conservative option. Yet, this hasn’t entirely taken off. Last year, Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, briefly entertained a presidential bid, positioning himself as fiscally conservative and socially liberal, only to be ratio’d out of the race. There’s not much of a constituency for that kind of politics.

Survey data does show, though, that there is a fairly large slice of voters who are the inverse of Schultz: fiscally liberal and socially conservative. If there were to be a successful, national third party in the United States—say, like the Populist or People’s Parties of the 1880s–90s—it would likely occupy this electoral space.
I was very disappointed with that article, because it contained no discussion of Duverger's law -- how the manner of voting produces party composition. Its poll had no questions about alternatives to first-past-the-post:
  • Top-two runoff (all the candidates compete, then the top two of those later compete)
  • Instant runoff voting (ranked-choice or preference voting with sequential-runoff counting)
  • Multimember-district systems
    • Single transferable vote (multiseat extension of IRV)
    • Party-list proportional representation
    • Mixed-member: district seats and list seats, with the list seats making for overall proportionality
    • Parallel: district seats and list seats, with only the list seats being made proportional
Proportional representation has the virtue of easily allowing more than two political parties, thus getting around the "why only two" problem.

Checking such measures as the Economist magazine's Democracy Index and the Fund for Peace's Fragile States Index, most of the best-performing nations have proportional representation.
 
I'm disappointed in the study that put in a category for people who prefer fewer than 2 political parties. Having one political party like China isn't a democracy at all, whereas having no political parties the way the US founders first envisioned the country would actually be a positive step. Clumping the two groups together is clumsy. Authoritarians interested in crushing any opposition to their ideological dogma, and, people who feel that each candidate and their unique policy positions should be considered individually, are very different groups of people.

I've always been a fan of IRV for single seats and proportional representation of a mixed-member variety. If I were a politician this would be my biggest platform. FPTP is a primitive and archaic voting system.
 
We need to advance beyond political party demagogues and manipulators.

Here's the real solution (or the first step toward it):


A simple description/example of "sortition" would be: put the names of every (adult) citizen in a pot, and then randomly select one name to fill the office. Or select however many names are needed, to serve in the legislature, or city council, or senate, etc.

This is the concept we need to start from. This is the rational/logical approach, for decision-making, such as we use for choosing juries to settle the issue of guilt/innocence in court. We assume EVERY citizen is competent to decide the truth, without prejudice in advance, and then a small number are picked, at random. There is no basis for judging that certain ones are more competent than others and placed in superior positions of power to impose their authority onto the rest of us who are inferior submissive subjects.

(Of course lawyers are able to screen out certain jury candidates, but they can't pick who will serve. They just take the next random name(s) to replace the ones they're allowed to exclude.)

The election system is an arbitrary concept which presumes that those who are good promotionalists and speech-makers and manipulators of others are also good at making decisions for society. No one has ever explained how the ability to manipulate a mob through speech-making qualifies one to be a good social decision-maker.

By contrast, the "sortition" concept assumes that everyone is equally good at decision-making and should be given an equal opportunity to participate in the process, with no one presumed to be superior to the others just because they have a talent for speech-making and mob-manipulation.

Sortition has already been used in some cases, and it has a good track record. However, it can take different forms, and one could argue that the ancient Athenians used it and got some bad results.

So what we need are experiments with it, to try it out in different forms. Any system can be lousy if it's done the wrong way. And the process followed by the decision-makers has to be one where speech-makers are prevented from dominating. It could be that even in a jury it's possible for one jury-member to dominate over the others. So a process has to be followed which gives every participant equal power to direct the dialogue toward the outcome.

And, perhaps sortition can take a form where it doesn't actually replace the party-demagogue system, but rather corrects it repeatedly, or intervenes to fix what the parties screw up. So then the voting and speech-making circus can continue, sort of as entertainment, for the small-minded, while the most important decisions are made on a higher plane, by decision-makers who must deal with the facts, like a jury does, regardless of popular stampedes of the masses driven by speech-maker manipulators.
 
Voters Have Mixed Opinions About America’s Party System
In our survey we found that most voters do not prefer this two-party arrangement. A plurality (41 percent) of voters think there should be more than two parties. Only 20 percent think there should be exactly two parties, while 14 percent said there should be fewer than two parties, with the remaining 25 percent reporting that they weren’t sure.

This finding is somewhat discordant with the apparent increase in partisanship. Both Democrats and Republicans want an alternative to the status quo. What they want this alternative to be isn’t clear, however. There are some who try to offer a socially liberal and fiscally conservative option. Yet, this hasn’t entirely taken off. Last year, Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, briefly entertained a presidential bid, positioning himself as fiscally conservative and socially liberal, only to be ratio’d out of the race. There’s not much of a constituency for that kind of politics.

Survey data does show, though, that there is a fairly large slice of voters who are the inverse of Schultz: fiscally liberal and socially conservative. If there were to be a successful, national third party in the United States—say, like the Populist or People’s Parties of the 1880s–90s—it would likely occupy this electoral space.
I was very disappointed with that article, because it contained no discussion of Duverger's law -- how the manner of voting produces party composition. Its poll had no questions about alternatives to first-past-the-post:
  • Top-two runoff (all the candidates compete, then the top two of those later compete)

I'd prefer a potentially multi stage runoff, with the top n candidates competing such that they must combine at least 50% between them. Even a top two runoff can lead to a situation where a camp with less support wins because they are more unites.

Arguably, the 2002 French presidential elections are such an example: the top two candidates in the first round, centre right Chirac and far right Le Pen, only had about 37% between them, with a clear majority of votes going to candidates to the left of Chirac. Due to the top two system, however, only those two made it into the next round. With a 50% requirement for the combined votes of the candidates advancing, the 3rd placed social Democrat candidate may week have won the second round, leading to a final result that better reflects voters intentions as expressed in the first round.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_French_presidential_election
 
You need some catchy names for political parties.
UK
Monster raving loony party
Party party party
Aust.
Sun ripened tomato party
Party party party
 
Here's the real solution (or the first step toward it):


A simple description/example of "sortition" would be: put the names of every (adult) citizen in a pot, and then randomly select one name to fill the office. Or select however many names are needed, to serve in the legislature, or city council, or senate, etc.

This is the concept we need to start from. This is the rational/logical approach, for decision-making, such as we use for choosing juries to settle the issue of guilt/innocence in court. We assume EVERY citizen is competent to decide the truth, without prejudice in advance, and then a small number are picked, at random. There is no basis for judging that certain ones are more competent than others and placed in superior positions of power to impose their authority onto the rest of us who are inferior submissive subjects.

(Of course lawyers are able to screen out certain jury candidates, but they can't pick who will serve. They just take the next random name(s) to replace the ones they're allowed to exclude.)

The election system is an arbitrary concept which presumes that those who are good promotionalists and speech-makers and manipulators of others are also good at making decisions for society. No one has ever explained how the ability to manipulate a mob through speech-making qualifies one to be a good social decision-maker.

By contrast, the "sortition" concept assumes that everyone is equally good at decision-making and should be given an equal opportunity to participate in the process, with no one presumed to be superior to the others just because they have a talent for speech-making and mob-manipulation.

Sortition has already been used in some cases, and it has a good track record. However, it can take different forms, and one could argue that the ancient Athenians used it and got some bad results.

So what we need are experiments with it, to try it out in different forms. Any system can be lousy if it's done the wrong way. And the process followed by the decision-makers has to be one where speech-makers are prevented from dominating. It could be that even in a jury it's possible for one jury-member to dominate over the others. So a process has to be followed which gives every participant equal power to direct the dialogue toward the outcome.

And, perhaps sortition can take a form where it doesn't actually replace the party-demagogue system, but rather corrects it repeatedly, or intervenes to fix what the parties screw up. So then the voting and speech-making circus can continue, sort of as entertainment, for the small-minded, while the most important decisions are made on a higher plane, by decision-makers who must deal with the facts, like a jury does, regardless of popular stampedes of the masses driven by speech-maker manipulators.

People should put their name in the pot voluntarily. No one should be made to serve under protest. Second, people should be deemed reasonable. As the courts have a standard known as the "reasonable person", so too should their be a standard for being a reasonable politician for the particular office. They should be informed, capable, fair-minded, and aware of the duties of the office. They should be able to weigh the harm versus the utility of their actions. They should possess the traits we all expect of our neighbors. If not, stick your hand back in the pot.
 
I'm disappointed in the study that put in a category for people who prefer fewer than 2 political parties. Having one political party like China isn't a democracy at all, whereas having no political parties the way the US founders first envisioned the country would actually be a positive step. Clumping the two groups together is clumsy. Authoritarians interested in crushing any opposition to their ideological dogma, and, people who feel that each candidate and their unique policy positions should be considered individually, are very different groups of people.

I've always been a fan of IRV for single seats and proportional representation of a mixed-member variety. If I were a politician this would be my biggest platform. FPTP is a primitive and archaic voting system.

I think that people in general don't really understand the link between election systems and the political parties. They might answer in a survey that they would like a "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" or whatever party, but when asked if they prefer proportional representation or some other election system, it'd be considered too foreign or even outright unamerican.
 
Here's the real solution (or the first step toward it):


A simple description/example of "sortition" would be: put the names of every (adult) citizen in a pot, and then randomly select one name to fill the office. Or select however many names are needed, to serve in the legislature, or city council, or senate, etc.

This is the concept we need to start from. This is the rational/logical approach, for decision-making, such as we use for choosing juries to settle the issue of guilt/innocence in court. We assume EVERY citizen is competent to decide the truth, without prejudice in advance, and then a small number are picked, at random. There is no basis for judging that certain ones are more competent than others and placed in superior positions of power to impose their authority onto the rest of us who are inferior submissive subjects.

(Of course lawyers are able to screen out certain jury candidates, but they can't pick who will serve. They just take the next random name(s) to replace the ones they're allowed to exclude.)

The election system is an arbitrary concept which presumes that those who are good promotionalists and speech-makers and manipulators of others are also good at making decisions for society. No one has ever explained how the ability to manipulate a mob through speech-making qualifies one to be a good social decision-maker.

By contrast, the "sortition" concept assumes that everyone is equally good at decision-making and should be given an equal opportunity to participate in the process, with no one presumed to be superior to the others just because they have a talent for speech-making and mob-manipulation.

Sortition has already been used in some cases, and it has a good track record. However, it can take different forms, and one could argue that the ancient Athenians used it and got some bad results.

So what we need are experiments with it, to try it out in different forms. Any system can be lousy if it's done the wrong way. And the process followed by the decision-makers has to be one where speech-makers are prevented from dominating. It could be that even in a jury it's possible for one jury-member to dominate over the others. So a process has to be followed which gives every participant equal power to direct the dialogue toward the outcome.

And, perhaps sortition can take a form where it doesn't actually replace the party-demagogue system, but rather corrects it repeatedly, or intervenes to fix what the parties screw up. So then the voting and speech-making circus can continue, sort of as entertainment, for the small-minded, while the most important decisions are made on a higher plane, by decision-makers who must deal with the facts, like a jury does, regardless of popular stampedes of the masses driven by speech-maker manipulators.

People should put their name in the pot voluntarily. No one should be made to serve under protest.

Everyone who wants to be in the process should be accepted. It could be required that they have to be a citizen, an adult, etc.


Second, people should be deemed reasonable. As the courts have a standard known as the "reasonable person", so too should there be a standard for being a reasonable politician for the particular office. They should be informed, capable, fair-minded, and aware of the duties of the office. They should be able to weigh the harm versus the utility of their actions. They should possess the traits we all expect of our neighbors.

But who makes the judgment that someone fails this "reasonable person" test? If the judge of this is a Democrat, s/he will just exclude any Republican, and vice versa.

If someone shows up drunk, wanting to participate in the decision-making, and unable to communicate, or wanting to start a fight with someone, maybe there's a way to eliminate that kind of "unreasonable" person. But the process would have to accept at least 90% of everyone who shows up, or whose name is drawn from the "pot" in the random selection.


If not, stick your hand back in the pot.

As long as there's a way to screen out the ones who are unfit, without discriminating against them for partisan or ideological reasons.

Some kind of screening would be possible, to exclude extreme undesirables. But in general the decision-makers should be chosen at random from among all the citizens, with only a tiny percent being excluded as unfit.
 
I've always been a fan of IRV for single seats and proportional representation of a mixed-member variety. If I were a politician this would be my biggest platform. FPTP is a primitive and archaic voting system.
I think that people in general don't really understand the link between election systems and the political parties. They might answer in a survey that they would like a "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" or whatever party, but when asked if they prefer proportional representation or some other election system, it'd be considered too foreign or even outright unamerican.
If they have ever heard of such systems. It's very rare to find mention of proportional representation in discussions of alternative parties.

I think I'll have to research the platforms of alternative parties to see which ones endorse what alternatives, if any. I don't like the term "third parties" for them, because there is a lot more than one of them.
 
 Third party (United States) - I looked at some of the parties there, and I found out which ones mention what in their platforms.
IRV = instant runoff voting
RCV = ranked-choice voting or preference voting, usually counted in IRV fashion.
PR = proportional representation
 
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