Modern Warfare

[Swammerdami]

My morning news feed took me straight to 39 years ago, a KGB defector chillingly predicted modern America

A former KGB agent named Yuri Alexandrovich Bezmenov claimed in 1984 that Russia has a long-term goal of ideologically subverting the U.S. He described the process as “a great brainwashing” that has four basic stages. The first stage, he said, is called “demoralization,” which would take about 20 years to achieve. ...
Bezmenov made the point that the work of the KGB mainly does not involve espionage, despite what our popular culture may tell us. Most of the work, 85% of it, was “a slow process which we call either ideological subversion, active measures, or psychological warfare.”
“... exposure to true information does not matter anymore,” said Bezmenov. “A person who was demoralized is unable to assess true information. The facts tell nothing to him.”
... the second stage of ideological brainwashing is “destabilization”. During this two-to-five-year period, asserted Bezmenov, what matters is the targeting of essential structural elements of a nation: economy, foreign relations, and defense systems. Basically, the subverter (Russia) would look to destabilize every one of those areas in the United States, considerably weakening it.
... The third stage would be “crisis.” It would take only up to six weeks to send a country into crisis, explained Bezmenov. The crisis would bring “a violent change of power, structure, and economy” and will be followed by the last stage, “normalization.” That’s when your country is basically taken over, living under a new ideology and reality.
“if people will fail to grasp the impending danger of that development, nothing ever can help [the] United States,” adding, “You may kiss goodbye to your freedom.”
It bears saying that when he made this statement, he was warning about baby boomers and Democrats of the time.
... “Most of the American politicians, media, and educational system trains another generation of people who think they are living at the peacetime,” said the former KGB agent. “False. United States is in a state of war: undeclared, total war against the basic principles and foundations of this system.”
You can watch the full interview here:

An hour later I picked up Sean McFate's Goliath: Why the West doesn't win wars. And what we need to do about it. (I don't go to bookstores anymore, but slowed down when I passed the table of English-language books for 100 baht while walking to restroom in the basement of the Central Airport mall.) Blurbs on the book cover include "Stunning. McFate is the new Sun Tzu." I've only started the book but McFate's prose is fun to read. He thinks it a shame that after spending Trillions of dollars Afghanistan and Iraq are worse off than when U.S. started its adventures.

Goliath touches on some of the same topics as the KGB defector Bezmenov. It seemed a weird coincidence to stumble upon it only an hour after reading the 'bigthink' article.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I'm not sure if it's how effective their plan was vs. simply how effective right wing media is at propagating bullshit, and how powerful Christian conservatives are, who are largely responsible for bringing us to this point. But either way we appear to be screwed. At least for a while, rebuilding is possible but not going to happen soon. And by the way even if we get rid of Trump, Vance will still be president, so I dunno why people act like getting rid of Trump would fix everything.

 

[Elixir]

I'm not sure if it's how effective their plan was vs. simply how effective right wing media is at propagating bullshit, and how powerful Christian conservatives are

Versus? No, “by virtue of” would be more accurate. RW media and religious conservatism are two of Russia’s main tools for wreaking the destruction of American democracy.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I'm not sure if it's how effective their plan was vs. simply how effective right wing media is at propagating bullshit, and how powerful Christian conservatives are

Versus? No, “by virtue of” would be more accurate. RW media and religious conservatism are two of Russia’s main tools for wreaking the destruction of American democracy.

Yes, but I'm saying it could have happened independently, given the number of idiots who are here. Russia didn't produce all of these idiots. They definitely amplified the lies the idiots like, though.

 

[Elixir]

Russia didn't produce all of these idiots.

Of course not. Russia employs them. That effort enables and encourages America to produce more of them, which Russia further employs. Eventually you get so many idiots that they elect a child-raping fraudster to lead a corrupt gang of dick-lickers in Congress, and the complete destruction of American democracy is now all but fait accompli.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Sure Yuri. You had it all figured out forty years ago and this is all part of Russia's, no China's, no Russia's master plan.
–or–
This is the natural progression of things when this cancer known as capitalism is left to run amok, when money craves power and political structures bend to its will.
The United States is its own worse enemy. Anything Russia or China plays off of is incidental. Though I am sure if and when the US is officially deemed an authoritarian state by whatever international body, deluded Russians will be right there saying, "We did that".

 

[Swammerdami]

... I picked up Sean McFate's Goliath: Why the West doesn't win wars. And what we need to do about it... Blurbs on the book cover include "Stunning. McFate is the new Sun Tzu." I've only started the book but McFate's prose is fun to read. He thinks it a shame that after spending Trillions of dollars Afghanistan and Iraq are worse off than when U.S. started its adventures.

While preparing this follow-up I discovered that Sean McFate (a "scholar-warrior") does not have a Wikipedia page, nor does he have one with his birth name Sean Sapone. Here is a bio which does not confirm the cover blurb that he has a PhD, and is a "Professor of Strategy" at Georgetown U.

I'm halfway through the book and it continues to be informative and fun to read. Perhaps most of the content is already familiar to well-read people. But McFate makes strong points and provides detailed discussion. I won't attempt a summary but the Table of Contents may give an idea of the book's scope and thesis:

* Strategic Atrophy​

* Why Do We Get War Wrong?​

* Rule 1: Conventional War Is Dead​

* Rule 2: Technology Will Not Save Us​

* Rule 3: There is No Such Thing as War or Peace--Both Coexist, Always​

* Rule 4: Hearts and Minds Do Not Matter​

* Rule 5: The Best Weapons Do Not Fire Bullets​

* Rule 6: Mercenaries Will Return​

* Rule 7: New Types of World Powers Will Rule​

* Rule 8: There Will Be Wars without States​

* Rule 9: Shadow Wars Will Dominate​

* Rule 10: Victory is Fungible​

* Winning the Future​

He regards the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 as a major transition: Feudalism gave way to a world dominated by nation-states. The Westphalian Order peaked in the 20th century and now we are plummeting back to feudalism.

War already dominates the world; and this will get worse. But most of U.S. military spending is completely wasted. At least $2 Trillion is being spent on the F-35, an airplane that is almost useless.

 

[Swammerdami]

I've almost finished McFate's book.

One interesting charge he makes is that Vladimir Putin organized the 1999 Moscow bombings as a "false flag" operation. It was Putin's response to those attacks that caused his popularity to balloon, and led to his election as President. Google shows that that charge has been made, though with little specific evidence.

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/1412-Whos-Blowing-Up-Russia.pdf

Of all the strange events that have taken place in post-communist Russia, none is more mysterious than the 1999 apartment bombings that brought Putin to power. In this article, written for the Russian Service of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Vladimir Voronov, an investigative journalist, examines the many unanswered questions about the bombings which for 15 years have cast a sinister shadow over the Putin era. As Russia becomes ever more deeply involved in a bloody war in Ukraine, it is the apartment bombings that serve as a warning of the acts of which Putin and his cronies may be capable.

The Question Russians Are Afraid To Ask

Ten years ago, a series of bombings across Russia killed more than 300 people. The authorities blamed Chechen rebels. But Kremlin critics say the security services staged the blasts as part of a plan to bring Vladimir Putin to power. A decade later, some of those critics are dead and the...

www.rferl.org

 

[Elixir]

The $2 trillion lifetime estimate for the F35 covers procurement of roughly 2,456 jets, operations, upgrades, infrastructure, and personnel, all through the year 2088.
Per plane it works out to 88 - 110 million over its lifetime. (Different branches get different models at different costs).

None of which makes it a rational expenditure, and since Trump is going to make a trillion dollars worth 10billion pretty soon, it will probably end up costing more like 40 trillion in 2088 dollars.

If they could be used to defeat the ‘Murkin Fascist Party I’d be all for it, but alas …

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The $2 trillion lifetime estimate for the F35 covers procurement of roughly 2,456 jets, operations, upgrades, infrastructure, and personnel, all through the year 2088.
Per plane it works out to 88 - 110 million over its lifetime. (Different branches get different models at different costs).

Yeah, by modern standards not unduly expensive. The problem is the F35 is far too much a jack of all trades. Too much focus on making one bird rather than related airframes with many parts in common.

 

[Elixir]

The $2 trillion lifetime estimate for the F35 covers procurement of roughly 2,456 jets, operations, upgrades, infrastructure, and personnel, all through the year 2088.
Per plane it works out to 88 - 110 million over its lifetime. (Different branches get different models at different costs).

Yeah, by modern standards not unduly expensive. The problem is the F35 is far too much a jack of all trades. Too much focus on making one bird rather than related airframes with many parts in common.

I have a hard time imagining a threat that would need thousands of such planes to deal with it. Are they expecting Martian invaders? Or do they just like the idea of beating up lots of different people all at once?

 

[Swammerdami]

McFate mentions the F-35 in the chapter "Technology will not save us." He calls it a "technological marvel, one that drives fighter pilots gaga with Top Gun lust." But much older aircraft outperform it for each of its tasks. In dogfights -- the sine qua non of fighter jets -- the F-35 is defeated by F-15 in mock air battles. And its 8 million lines of code are buggy. Pilots sometimes need to push Ctrl-Alt-Del on their radar computer.

McFate's emphasis is not on conventional warfare, but the fact that much warfare is already "non-kinetic." And even kinetic fighting is increasingly done by mercenaries rather than standing national armies.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

McFate mentions the F-35 in the chapter "Technology will not save us." He calls it a "technological marvel, one that drives fighter pilots gaga with Top Gun lust." But much older aircraft outperform it for each of its tasks. In dogfights -- the sine qua non of fighter jets -- the F-35 is defeated by F-15 in mock air battles. And its 8 million lines of code are buggy. Pilots sometimes need to push Ctrl-Alt-Del on their radar computer.

McFate's emphasis is not on conventional warfare, but the fact that much warfare is already "non-kinetic." And even kinetic fighting is increasingly done by mercenaries rather than standing national armies.

And we've had a F-35 pilot punch out because of what appears to have been a failure of his helmet--after he punched the plane flew off in normal flight. The first two reviews exonerated him, they finally found a panel that would say he was wrong. In hindsight he got disoriented (completely normal, we sense change but will perceive a steady deviation as straight) and believed his lying controls (which is standard for instrument conditions) and his plane was not reacting properly to the controls. And right there in the instructions: if the plane is not responding properly to pilot input below 6,000' AGL, eject.

 

[steve_bank]

The technological arms race began with the earliest civilizations. I recently watched a show on the evolution of chariot technology and tactics. It focused on major battles between Egypt and Assyria.

Layered body armor that could withstand an arrow goes far back in history.

Ancient Chinese developed an automatic crossbow. Load a magazine wiyh arrows, an early 'ache gun'. It was mass produced.

I think moren warfare is thought to have begun at the end of the Civil War era, guns were manufactured with tight enough tolerance to have interchangeable parts, mass production of rifles.

Then the Maxim machine gun.

In the early 20th century Krupp developed the first big artillery guns.

WWI put all together.

WWII was as much a technological war as anything else. It is where electronic warfare began.

A book I read back in the 80s. From the Association Of Old Crows. Crow was the tectonic warfare symbol.

The history of US electronic warfare: price, alfred: Amazon.com: Books

The history of US electronic warfare [price, alfred] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The history of US electronic warfare

www.amazon.com

Radio controlled weapons were developed inn WWII. Frequncy hopping is still one of the techniques to counter jamming.

During WWII, the Hollywood actress Hedy Lamarr co-invented a radio-based guidance system for torpedoes that utilized frequency-hopping technology to prevent signal jamming. This invention, patented in 1942, aimed to enhance the effectiveness of radio-controlled torpedoes by making their guidance signals more secure and resistant to enemy interference.

Of course the German ballistic missiles with a gyro guidance system. The V2. It went sub orbital.

An early drone was the German V1 'buzz bomb'. Fuel was timed to run out over a target.

Military technology today is generally advanced versions of WWII technology.

As developed in WWII tactics are based on command and control. Coordinated use of air power, infantry, and mobile armor.

Schwarzkopf in the first Gulf War.

Laser guided weapons were developed in the VN War.

War seems to bring out creativity.

 

[bilby]

An early drone was the German V1 'buzz bomb'. Fuel was timed to run out over a target.

Not so; The guidance system was much more advanced than that. It had a small airscrew that measured distance travelled, and could be set before launch to determine the range. The design intent was that the bomb would then dive onto the target, but the system gave the elevators a rapid transition to maximum downward deflection, and this disrupted the pulse jet air intake so much that the engine cut off at the top of its dive.

It turned out that the psychological effect of the sudden silence, telling those below that the bomb was coming for them, was so terrifying that the designers kept the flaw.

Directional control was magnetic, and each V1 was taken to a non-ferrous building aligned with the launch ramp and struck with mallets immediately becore launch, so that the bomb's own magnetic field would not change further in flight due to the hammering effect of the pulse jet and the Earth's magnetic field. Only affer this process was the guidance compass installed.

The Germans used local spies as their main source of evidence about the locations of V1 hits; However by that stage in the war, British countetintelligence had captured and turned all of these spies, and made them send false reports that the bombs were over-shooting central London, and harmlessly exploding in the fields of Oxfordshire. in fact, there was a slight tendency to undershoot, and the false intelligence reports caused the Germans to reduce further the set range. Central London and Westminster were spared the majority of the bombs, which instead fell on the working class housing in the southeast.

 

[steve_bank]

I requested my post be deleted, I moved it over to history,