New Hampshire Primaries

[Jimmy Higgins]

I get what you are saying, but I think that the thing that makes him a dark horse is that his positions and influence are shrouded in mystery. His influence is hard to pinpoint, aside from the obvious media he controls. His policies are light and will likely suddenly change or become more rightward in the General. He's "flexible."

He is a Log Cabin Republican, there is nothing really else to say. I'd say he is a "compassionate conservative" for as far that term can carry.

I'm just thinking of all the billionaires in our politics lately. We've got Mitt Romney running a few years back...

He isn't remotely a billionaire.

...and now he's looked up to by Democrats as a model of honesty...

He isn't remotely adored by Democrats. He just had a single moment.

...but that's what it takes to beat Trump, someone independently wealthy. Which brings me to Tom Steyer making it a point to say it will take a billionaire to beat Trump and then the other billionaire Bloomberg essentially arguing the same thing. But it's not so much the arguments as it is his control over media and getting to skip all those debates.

You don't have to call him a dark horse if you don't want to, but he's coming out of nowhere in a sense. From 0 to a sudden 15% national polling after dumping $300 million into campaign advertising. Bloomberg is showing national momentum and it's hard to gauge when it will stop from diminishing returns on investment. I don't agree with all of Amy's policies, but I like her personality. BUT she's only polling (see the link I just gave) at 4% nationally.

It'll depend on a couple of things. Is Bloomberg running for President or steering the Dems? Also New Hampshire is huge for Klobuchar. She needs something big or it is go home Amy.

Bloomberg has her number. I've called this a Banana Republic because all this interference by money. Amy (and others) have put a lot of hard work into arguing their policies and debating with other candidates. That someone can come out of nowhere to nearly quadruple Amy's numbers just because he has money underscores this point.

It underscores that money and politics sucks. That Bloomberg can mount such a quick rise is painful. But it isn't inevitably his nomination.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I’m hoping for a tight three way between Bernie, Pete, and Amy. That will make it interesting and should shake loose the clingons. Perhaps leaving only Uncle Joe camped out in SC watching his numbers.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This guy will be the biggest dick ever to sit in the Oval Office.

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, President Trump held a campaign rally Monday in Manchester, where he encouraged his supporters to cast votes for the “weakest candidate” in the Democratic field so as to sow further uncertainty in the contest to pick his opponent in 2020.

“I hear a lot of Republicans tomorrow will vote for the weakest candidate possible for the Democrats,” Trump said. “You can vote for the weakest candidate.”

Meanwhile in, Christ, when do they start political arrests...

Trump claimed that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was “mumbling terribly” behind him during the State of the Union address. The crowd responded with a chant of “Lock her up!”

 

[ZiprHead]

He is a Log Cabin Republican, there is nothing really else to say. I'd say he is a "compassionate conservative" for as far that term can carry.

Aren't Log Cabin Republicans the gay reps group?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

He is a Log Cabin Republican, there is nothing really else to say. I'd say he is a "compassionate conservative" for as far that term can carry.

Aren't Log Cabin Republicans the gay reps group?

The are generally what's left of NE US Republicans from the old guard, but had moderate social stances.

 

[Derec]

New Hampshire, the Dumb as Granite State.

Why do you say that?

But they are just voting in a primary, not in some Rube Goldberg devised system of democratic torture.

Aka participatory democracy. But I guess any effort that takes more than 5 seconds is too much for our ADHD society ...

My prediction is Sanders wins, Buttigieg wins, Klobuchar wins, every one else except for Yang loses. Yang... literally disintegrates into nothing in a bizarre highly unlikely quantum event.

What do you mean by wins? Wins any delegates? Possible, as the third place is quite fluid, and Klob could beat out Biden (who skedaddled to SC already!) and Warren.

 

[Derec]

I don't care what happens in NH, another small mostly white state.

What do you have against being white? That NH is small is a feature, not a bug. It allows candidates to connect with voters in person, rather than just through expensive TV ads.

I would say a state like SC is far less representative. ~60% of voters in the Democratic primary will be black. US is only ~14% black, and blacks are nowhere near 50%, much less 60% of the population, and thus general election voter base, in any state. But for some reason the conventional wisdom is that IA and NH are not representative, but SC somehow is. BS!

I want to see what happens on Super Tuesday next month, when many of the large states vote. Some of the current candidates will be dead in the water by then, while others might unexpectedly float to the top.

Super Tuesday will award many delegates, but the fact that some smaller states go first allows lesser known candidates the opportunity to introduce themselves to voters on a retail level. If Super Tuesday went first, Hillary would have been the nominee in 2008. Barack who? Iowa made him. If Super Tuesday went first this year, Biden would probably be prohibitive favorite, and the weaknesses in his candidacy that are being exposed now would probably not have been apparent until he had a big delegate lead already.

 

[Derec]

Sanders is expected to win, but does Klobuchar replace Buttigieg as the 2nd place runner up? Klobuchar doesn't need to win, but she needs a solid finish. Clinton was sold as "the come back kid" in '92 with his 2nd place finish in New Hampshire.

Unlikely. She might finish 3rd as the "best of the rest" and get some delegates.
Should she against all odds finish 2nd she would indeed be THE comeback kid.

But Klobuchar could be the dark horse's dark horse, as she is a much better (on paper) candidate than Buttigieg.

Yes Jimmy, on paper, but on tarmac, where the rubber hits the road she finished 5th in Iowa where should have been doing relatively well because MN is a neighboring state (like MA/NH with Tsongas). That makes a big breakthrough rather unlikely I think. But we shall see.

NH 3d place should be an interesting betting market. Any of the markets run that particular bet?

 

[Derec]

Between telling people to go vote for someone else,

That was in the context of being asked about banning fracking, a singularly idiotic idea.

coming out against marijuana,

That was indeed dumb. However, his likely replacement, Bloomberg, did the same.

his whole history with the Anita Hill thing,

When an accusation is made with the intent to derail a SCOTUS nomination, the accuser SHOULD be scrutinized. Besides, the whole accusation was ridiculous. No attack or anything, just some mildly risque jokes involving soda cans more than 10 years before the nomination.

He tried to attack Roe 3 times!

Who is Roe?

If you really want to attack Biden, then his support for the policy that mandates colleges expel male students accused of sexual assault using lowest possible standard of proof and at the same time preventing these students to mount an effective defense (confronting the accuser, introducing exculpatory evidence, etc.)

He was Obama's token to conservatives, literally the most conservative old dude Obama could find.

Both the Koch brothers were still alive, so you are literally lying.
What Obama wanted was somebody with Washington experience, and Biden had a lot of it in 2008. He was in Senate for 35 years at that point and was the Chairman of Judiciary and Foreign Relations and earlier of the Judiciary Committee. That's quite a resume.

Biden was DoA, and it shakes any faith I may have had in you that you did not see this coming.

He still has the SC bulwark and his replacement designate Bloomberg is under attack for stop, question and frisk, so Biden might survive yet.

 

[Derec]

I’m hoping for a tight three way between Bernie, Pete, and Amy.

But Pete would be far more interested in Bernie's bits than in Amy's and I am not sure Bernie would be down for that.

That will make it interesting and should shake loose the clingons.

Clingons?

Perhaps leaving only Uncle Joe camped out in SC watching his numbers.

Biden's last stand. His Alamo. He is just hoping it works better for him than it did for Davy Crockett...

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

For Biden and Warren, not getting at least third will basically be the end of the campaign. They might not drop out after NH, they might wait until Super Tuesday, but if they don't make third they are effectively over.

 

[Derec]

For Biden and Warren, not getting at least third will basically be the end of the campaign. They might not drop out after NH, they might wait until Super Tuesday, but if they don't make third they are effectively over.

I think that is very accurate for Klob and Warren. Third or bust. But Biden can survive because he has SC, a state where he has been leading. Neither Warren nor Klob have that kind of hope in the two remaining early states.

 

[lpetrich]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary
RCP Average 2/6 - 2/9
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate
[/TD]
[TD]Pct
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanders
[/TD]
[TD]28.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buttigieg
[/TD]
[TD]21.3%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Klobuchar
[/TD]
[TD]11.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warren
[/TD]
[TD]11.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Biden
[/TD]
[TD]11.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Yang
[/TD]
[TD]3.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gabbard
[/TD]
[TD]3.3%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steyer
[/TD]
[TD]1.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patrick
[/TD]
[TD]1.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bennet
[/TD]
[TD]0.3%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Michael Bloomberg is apparently pinning his hopes on the Super Tuesday states -- he's been ignoring IA and NH.

Seems like the race is becoming BS vs. PB. Will EW fold? JB? AK?

AOC was at a Bernie Sanders rally yesterday in NH, as I write this. Great speech there also.

People for Bernie on Twitter: ".@AOC turns it to 11. We didn't come to play. We came to win.
Let's do this. https://t.co/alPU9J5lNS
#NotMeUs https://t.co/euTGikDc5E" / Twitter

People for Bernie on Twitter: "@AOC "When we look at what happened in that debate stage, who brings up Palestine? Senator Bernie Sanders... who stood up for women and gender nonconforming right to choose in the 90s?. Fast forward this campaign, who is the only candidate to call and break up ICE and CPB?" @AOC https://t.co/DZklMJb3ir" / Twitter

People for Bernie on Twitter: "@AOC "We cannot understand the power of hate. We cannot underestimate it. It is not going to be any one candidate that defeats Donald Trump, it's gonna be a movement of Americans that defeat Donald Trump in rejection of hatred and embracing of love" @AOC to over 6,700 #NotMeUs https://t.co/Nbt7IhuAMK" / Twitter

People for Bernie on Twitter: "@AOC
"As someone who has been told to go back, imma tell you, we're moving forward.
Forward to a multiracial democracy
Forward to guaranteed healthcare
Forward to a living wage
Forward to fighting for our neighbors
Forward for indigenous rights and honoring sovereignty"
@AOC https://t.co/TLCLtSASZe" / Twitter

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

For Biden and Warren, not getting at least third will basically be the end of the campaign. They might not drop out after NH, they might wait until Super Tuesday, but if they don't make third they are effectively over.

I think that is very accurate for Klob and Warren. Third or bust. But Biden can survive because he has SC, a state where he has been leading. Neither Warren nor Klob have that kind of hope in the two remaining early states.

Klobuchar needs second or extremely close to second to make up her big national deficit.

 

[southernhybrid]

I sort of doubt that the top four will end their involvement until after Super Tuesday, although if Biden fails to winin SC, he might decide to drop out. MSNBC showed some statistics that said black voters are leaving Biden in favor of Bloomberg. They are considered the most pragmatic group if voters. Their main concern is beating Trump. If they don't think Biden can do it, they will move to Bloomberg, regardless of his baggage.

I also heard that a lot of voters in NH, work in Ma. and they tend to be independents or Republicans. NH has open primaries and it's expected that many of them will vote in the Democratic primary on their way home from work tonight. We also have open primaries in Ga, so it's likely that many Republicans and independents will vote in the Dem primaries here as well. The question is will they vote for the one they like the most of the one who they think Trump can beat? I prefer open primaries. I was able to vote against Ralph Reed one year, when he was running for Lt. Gov. Quite a few of my atheist friends did the same thing. It was just hard for me to ask for a Republican ballot.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

It is possible, theoretically, that SC might save Biden.

Bloomberg should note that "disregard the early primaries and then score big on Super Tuesday" has not proved to be a winning strategy.

 

[Derec]

It is possible, theoretically, that SC might save Biden.

Even if not save in the sense that he ends up the nominee, save in the sense that he can legitimately contest Super Tuesday. Which is bad news for Bloomberg. It really should be either him or Biden going in. A wounded Biden only ends up taking votes from Bloomberg without giving Bloomberg any reason to bow out in favor of Biden.

Bloomberg should note that "disregard the early primaries and then score big on Super Tuesday" has not proved to be a winning strategy.

And by none other than his predecessor.

 

[Derec]

I was able to vote against Ralph Reed one year, when he was running for Lt. Gov. Quite a few of my atheist friends did the same thing.

I did the same thing.

It was just hard for me to ask for a Republican ballot.

I did it quite a few times. I always weigh which ballot has the more interesting races in my location. And then there are sometimes ballot questions put forth by parties and only appearing on their respective ballots, so I look at that too.

By the way, with separate presidential and other primaries, you can select one ballot in March and a different one in May. But if there is a runoff for any of the May primaries, you have to vote in the same primary for the runoff as you did for the original primary.

 

[Derec]

They have apparently already started counting the votes, even though polls close at 8.
2020 New Hampshire primary election results
So far, with 6% reporting, it's Bernie (27%), Pete (22%), Amy (21%), Liz (10%) and Joe (9%). Surprisingly strong showing for Tulsi at 4%.

But this is still early and could change a lot. But if results stay similar, it's a very strong showing for Klob, and it's pretty much game over for Warren and it's hard to imagine how Biden can prevail in the end.

 

[Trausti]

It will be sad to see Warren go. Not really.