untermensche
Contributor
Once in five billion years.
Doesn't sound like something likely to happen, as is contended.
Say's who? Where's your evidence for that?
Genetics.
What we do know is that the conditions on a primordial Earth and the Earth we now live on are quite different. Indeed - the Miller-Urey experiment showed that such a set of conditions are conducive to building amino acid chains. Now what happens after that is a bit of a mystery but I'm pretty certain that the same evolutionary model describes conditions then as they do now - it could well be that it did happen multiple times but only one line survived due to competition, or alternately that first line was sufficiently successful enough that it was able to continue reproducing in the largely anaerobic atmosphere of the early Earth leading up to the Oxygen Holocaust.
Alleged amino acids are not life, not close to life.
Life is a system where genetic information is transformed into specific strings of amino acids, not free floating amino acids, which is as I said, soup.
Once that happens two key things change. (A) the chemistry of the conditions is irrevocably changed, and (2) the Earth is full of basic life. Now we still observe polymerization happening, but the conditions are less conducive to forming net-new biopolymers that would eventually become the building blocks of new life - and more importantly there are organisms that are able to consume any biopolymers and proto-biopolymers just as we have have observed bacteria who eat simpler polymers like Nylon and polyethylene.
Life has to be self-sustaining and able to replicate.
The earth is not filled with the basics of this. There appears to be one lineage and one instance of life arising.
To say we don't have enough specificity of every step is to make the exact argument the creationists do about the missing link, or to make the claim that I couldn't possibly exist unless I'm able to produce the skeleton of my great-great-great-great-great-great grandmother.
This is a wildly absurd claim and something someone trying to pass rank speculation off as inevitability might say.