Nuclear War: How Bad Would It Be?

[Loren Pechtel]

(Which was also the issue with the repeated butt of jokes: the Davy Crockett. Dial-a-yield atomic artillery. At max yield it would cause a radiation kill at a longer range than the weapon would fly. That wasn't actually a problem, it was expected that while the weapon was in flight the guy who fired it dove into a foxhole. The other effects of the bomb would be minor at that range and you didn't need to get much below the surface to have plenty of shielding against the neutrons.)

Yeah, the military does provide some weapons that only someone in a kamikaze frame of mind would actually use. I refused to carry white phosphorus grenades along with my other ammo because the burst radius was about five yards greater than the average person could toss it. Plus if a round penetrated the casing it would cover whoever was carrying it with burning phosphorus.

You miss my point--the intended use mode for the Davy Crockett was that the guy who fired it would be in a foxhole when it detonated. Safe unless he was downwind. And don't fragmentation grenades have the same problem of a burst radius bigger than the throwing range? You're expected to take cover.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We used to carry nuclear torpedoes.
Their use was pretty much suicide. You could not shoot a target far enough away to survive the blast except, maybe, if there was a harbor with a small mouth, and as you drove past the mouth, you shot the torpedo into the harbor, then went to battle short to get behind the peninsula to protect you from the blast.
I forget the actual numbers, but someone realized that there are like six harbors in the world where this could work, most of them ours or an ally's.

That lethal? Playing with the old Harpoon game they could generally be used by taking a reasonably long range shot then hauling ass on a reciprocal bearing. Of course that made quite a racket and if your target had any friends around there would likely be more torpedoes in the water--an the AI had no sense of self-preservation with any weapon.

Harpoon was a ship-killer. The nuclear torpedo was for taking out a task force.

I was referring to the game, not the missile:

Harpoon (video game) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Naval fleet action combat simulator (including naval aviation.) Buggy but it tried to be realistic within the limits of what was practical. (For example, as far as I could tell new contact detection occurred at 30 second intervals even if the radar had a sweep rate far above that. With no airborne radar sea-skimmers often would hit without any attempt to intercept them.) It also had an abysmal AI. (You've figured out approximately where an enemy battle group is. Fire some sort of anti-surface missile into the area--could even be a Tomahawk aimed at something behind it--all the radars light up. Now it's easy to locate.)

 

[skepticalbip]

(Which was also the issue with the repeated butt of jokes: the Davy Crockett. Dial-a-yield atomic artillery. At max yield it would cause a radiation kill at a longer range than the weapon would fly. That wasn't actually a problem, it was expected that while the weapon was in flight the guy who fired it dove into a foxhole. The other effects of the bomb would be minor at that range and you didn't need to get much below the surface to have plenty of shielding against the neutrons.)

Yeah, the military does provide some weapons that only someone in a kamikaze frame of mind would actually use. I refused to carry white phosphorus grenades along with my other ammo because the burst radius was about five yards greater than the average person could toss it. Plus if a round penetrated the casing it would cover whoever was carrying it with burning phosphorus.

You miss my point--the intended use mode for the Davy Crockett was that the guy who fired it would be in a foxhole when it detonated. Safe unless he was downwind. And don't fragmentation grenades have the same problem of a burst radius bigger than the throwing range? You're expected to take cover.

The average person can toss a fragmentation grenade further than it's burst radius but you are right that even then they should duck behind cover especially if it needed to be tossed to a close target. The WP grenade is a different matter. The burst radius is greater than the average person can toss it plus ducking in a hole wouldn't protect the thrower from burning phosphorus that arcs from the explosion and falls down into the hole. And then in real combat conditions you don't have time to dig a hole when you take fire during a patrol.

And then the Davy Crockett was mounted on jeeps is so they could be quickly moved into position to engage a tank column wherever they happen to be spotted. That means that they didn't expect to have prepared defensive positions in place. Digging a foxhole would waste a lot of precious time while the tanks were closing in. What I heard from the old soldiers was that the plan was to fire the Davy Crockett then jump back in the jeep and get as far away as they could before it exploded.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

What really matters is where you are when a nuke tactical or strategic goes off. If the Bremerton nuclear sub base is hit Seattle would probably be in the blast area. We'd certainly have radiation and heat effects.

My understanding in the 80s was tactical nukes meant field use for battle, Soviets vs NATO.

In the 50s-60s tactical nukes were tested, fired from a cannon. How long before it was safe for troops to ener the area was studied.

As I mentioned, it's terminology, but if we want to discuss terminology and we go by the above, I would ask where the geographical limits of a battle are, in modern warfare. For example, if F35 from an airbase in Poland are destroying Russian armor and artillery in Ukraine, would it not be a tactical use to fire artillery rockets with 0.5 kt warhead at the airfield?

 

[bigfield]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

 

[Hermit]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

That's the reasoning behind my parents' decision to migrate to Australia. Kind of valid, but if it comes to an all-out nuclear war, at least one missile will hit a naval base in Western Australia, at least one will hit Pine Gap and every other military US installation, and at least one will hit every industrial plant, such as steel works, that is of strategic importance.

 

[steve_bank]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

Have you seen the movie On The Beach?

A Cold War era movie about post nuclear war where Audtralia is the last place untouched,. A cloud of contamination is approaching and the govy hands out suicide pills.

There was a news report of wealthy peple buying up land in New Zealand as place to go to escape.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

Have you seen the movie On The Beach?

A Cold War era movie about post nuclear war where Audtralia is the last place untouched,. A cloud of contamination is approaching and the govy hands out suicide pills.

There was a news report of wealthy peple buying up land in New Zealand as place to go to escape.

The only contamination that would be creeping up on Australia is the soot in the stratosphere. The fallout will pose nothing beyond a cancer risk by the time it gets there.

 

[bilby]

People seriously need to stop getting their "information" from Hollywood.

 

[skepticalbip]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

I dunno. Maybe the Pine Gap station near Alice Springs that is the joint Aust./US base for military satellite communications and surveillance in the Pacific would be a tempting target for somebody.

 

[bilby]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

I dunno. Maybe the Pine Gap station near Alice Springs that is the joint Aust./US base for military satellite communications and surveillance in the Pacific would be a tempting target for somebody.

Sure. But a nuclear strike on Pine Gap would kill maybe dozens of Australians, and turn to uninhabitable desert a vast expanse of land that is currently a vast expanse of uninhabitable desert.

The poms already nuked central Australia repeatedly. It was pretty bad for the handful of locals, but the majority of the population barely noticed.

 

[skepticalbip]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

I dunno. Maybe the Pine Gap station near Alice Springs that is the joint Aust./US base for military satellite communications and surveillance in the Pacific would be a tempting target for somebody.

Sure. But a nuclear strike on Pine Gap would kill maybe dozens of Australians, and turn to uninhabitable desert a vast expanse of land that is currently a vast expanse of uninhabitable desert.

The poms already nuked central Australia repeatedly. It was pretty bad for the handful of locals, but the majority of the population barely noticed.

You made me curious about the population of Alice Springs. I had thought the population was a couple thousand but, damn it is about 25,000, ten times what I had assumed. But still, if it was targeted then the rest of Australia would probably learn about it through a travel alert that the A87 was temporarily closed for repair.

 

[bilby]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

I dunno. Maybe the Pine Gap station near Alice Springs that is the joint Aust./US base for military satellite communications and surveillance in the Pacific would be a tempting target for somebody.

Sure. But a nuclear strike on Pine Gap would kill maybe dozens of Australians, and turn to uninhabitable desert a vast expanse of land that is currently a vast expanse of uninhabitable desert.

The poms already nuked central Australia repeatedly. It was pretty bad for the handful of locals, but the majority of the population barely noticed.

You made me curious about the population of Alice Springs. I had thought the population was a couple thousand but, damn it is about 25,000, ten times what I had assumed. But still, if it was targeted then the rest of Australia would probably learn about it through a travel alert that the A87 was temporarily closed for repair.

Pine Gap isn't particularly near to Alice Springs - it's about 20km as the crow flies from the edge of the built up area; And by design is separated from the town by a ridge of high ground, which protects the site from radio noise.

A 1MT groundburst at Pine Gap probably wouldn't have much effect on Alice, unless the wind happened to be blowing in exactly the wrong direction.

 

[bigfield]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

That's the reasoning behind my parents' decision to migrate to Australia. Kind of valid, but if it comes to an all-out nuclear war, at least one missile will hit a naval base in Western Australia, at least one will hit Pine Gap and every other military US installation, and at least one will hit every industrial plant, such as steel works, that is of strategic importance.

I think I'm in luck, because I'm pretty sure the nearest steel works is at Whyalla, which is over 200km from Adelaide.

Perhaps the only strategic target here is the Osborne Naval Shipyard. Still 40km away from me. According to Nukemap I'm still going to dodge it, but the city would get wrecked.

 

[fromderinside]

I suddenly like my chances of surviving nuclear war. That's one of the benefits of living at the anitpode of the North Atlantic. We'll suffer the economic costs of such a war but nobody's going to bother shooting any nukes at the Great Australian Crotch.

That's the reasoning behind my parents' decision to migrate to Australia. Kind of valid, but if it comes to an all-out nuclear war, at least one missile will hit a naval base in Western Australia, at least one will hit Pine Gap and every other military US installation, and at least one will hit every industrial plant, such as steel works, that is of strategic importance.

I think I'm in luck, because I'm pretty sure the nearest steel works is at Whyalla, which is over 200km from Adelaide.

Perhaps the only strategic target here is the Osborne Naval Shipyard. Still 40km away from me. According to Nukemap I'm still going to dodge it, but the city would get wrecked.

The big three

Merry Minuet: https://www.bing.com/search?FORM=EGST01&PC=ATEG&PTAG=ATEGXc_0111&q=merry+minuet

On the Beach:

The Russians Are Coming, the Russians Are coming:

 

[steve_bank]

Oh yes, The Merry Minute, prophetic.

'...we have been endowed with a mushroom shaped cloud....what nature doesn't do to us will be done by our fellow man...'

 

[Jarhyn]

It would end humanity as we know it. All the great magics of our civilization would be torn down and thrown to the wind. Natural Evil would seep in and make us weep and gnash our teeth.

Perhaps it would be for the better but I would as soon never find out.

The vehicle of this destruction is not radiation, but starvation and failure of logistics systems.

First, for all the people killed for being near a big city, there are going to be many more in the outlying areas which are going to be displaced, rather than killed.

When the people are displaced, a wave centered on every nuclear detonation will propagate from the ring of "long term survivors", of famine and unrest.

Eventually, this wave will dissipate, and things will return to normal for a little while in localities... Until the absence of the global logistics infrastructure those cities made possible in the first place hits the means of production.

The first two years will seem normal, albeit a bit chaotic and fascistic as this will throw government back to conservative fuedalism...

Cambodia 2.0 happens, pretty much everywhere.

Right until shit starts breaking that can't be fixed without cities, can't be arranged or gotten...

That's when mass starvation really takes hold and things collapse: The power grid dies/People run out of fuel/tractors break down.

The bombs themselves would be the first domino on a whole civilization's infrastructure collapse, and it would plunge the world into a dark age fueled by guns.

I expect people would turn on the assholes that cut them off at the knees by burning all the books, even the ones made of meat between people's ears.

Then it would be down to whatever wizardry survived the interim.

 

[Elixir]

It would end humanity as we know it. All the great magics of our civilization would be torn down and thrown to the wind. Natural Evil would seep in and make us weep and gnash our teeth.

Perhaps it would be for the better but I would as soon never find out.

The vehicle of this destruction is not radiation, but starvation and failure of logistics systems.

First, for all the people killed for being near a big city, there are going to be many more in the outlying areas which are going to be displaced, rather than killed.

When the people are displaced, a wave centered on every nuclear detonation will propagate from the ring of "long term survivors", of famine and unrest.

Eventually, this wave will dissipate, and things will return to normal for a little while in localities... Until the absence of the global logistics infrastructure those cities made possible in the first place hits the means of production.

The first two years will seem normal, albeit a bit chaotic and fascistic as this will throw government back to conservative fuedalism...

Cambodia 2.0 happens, pretty much everywhere.

Right until shit starts breaking that can't be fixed without cities, can't be arranged or gotten...

That's when mass starvation really takes hold and things collapse: The power grid dies/People run out of fuel/tractors break down.

The bombs themselves would be the first domino on a whole civilization's infrastructure collapse, and it would plunge the world into a dark age fueled by guns.

... and then the fun REALLY begins!

 

[steve_bank]

The survivors will be those that can be self sufficient, like rural 3rd world populations.

Places like NYC will be a cemetery. When supplies run low people will turn on each other. It does not take much for the thin veneer of civility to break down.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The survivors will be those that can be self sufficient, like rural 3rd world populations.

Places like NYC will be a cemetery. When supplies run low people will turn on each other. It does not take much for the thin veneer of civility to break down.

Even those rural 3rd world populations will be in danger from the mobs from the cities.