One Million Deaths From Covid-19 Possible In America

[Loren Pechtel]

If anything even close to this happens over the next year or so, I suspect it will be the end of the GOP. And their anti-science, anti-intellectualism, and small government ideology.

Voting involves more people than are permitted to gather. Thus the election is put on hold for the duration.

 

[Elixir]

Trumptards have been practicing only believing what they wish was true for over three years now...
It will be interesting to see if there's a bias in the body count that reflects the Democrat conspiracy to infect and kill off the Trumptard population.
I saw one of them on FB today asserting that no black people are infected by this highly customized virus, which is product of Obama Government research...

 

[Elixir]

Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it.

Over what time period? According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day, or about 2.7 million per year in the United States.
If that figure is all in a month or a year, that's pretty bad. But if there are a million deaths over 3-5 years and they're all incremental (which they wouldn't be), it might represent a 12-15% increase from the previous baseline average. Still significant but hardly the EOCAWKI.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This too is too simplistic. For one, there are many antivirals. That's why different antivirals are being furiously tested by the medical community. And second, even if these medications do not decrease the period virus is detectable, they may still reduce the severity of the illness (reducing the number of people needing ICU or even ventilation support would be a major breakthrough in itself!) and the infectious period.


Quick? No. But just because some antivirals they tried to use in China at the beginning of the epidemic did not seem to work does not mean the antiviral approach overall is fruitless.

I actually agree with you. I started skimming the paper to find which ones they tried. It looks like "antivirals (lopinavir/ritonavir; table 2)."

I will probably get clobbered over the head in saying this here, but I think they should have also tried black elderberry extract. I went out and bought some the other day as a last resort in case there is no other option. Now I will duck for cover.

No need to duck. My wife concocts an elderberry / honey drink that we've been taking daily. She just made another batch this morning.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

This too is too simplistic. For one, there are many antivirals. That's why different antivirals are being furiously tested by the medical community. And second, even if these medications do not decrease the period virus is detectable, they may still reduce the severity of the illness (reducing the number of people needing ICU or even ventilation support would be a major breakthrough in itself!) and the infectious period.


Quick? No. But just because some antivirals they tried to use in China at the beginning of the epidemic did not seem to work does not mean the antiviral approach overall is fruitless.

I actually agree with you. I started skimming the paper to find which ones they tried. It looks like "antivirals (lopinavir/ritonavir; table 2)."

I will probably get clobbered over the head in saying this here, but I think they should have also tried black elderberry extract. I went out and bought some the other day as a last resort in case there is no other option. Now I will duck for cover.

No need to duck. My wife concocts an elderberry / honey drink that we've been taking daily. She just made another batch this morning.

I don't know if that is effective. I don't know much about mixing it with other substances or its use for prevention, whether it's effective with prevention. I don't think it's unreasonable to hypothesize it could help with prevention, though.

What I do know: Scientific studies show black elderberry is effective with treatment by reducing the amount of time of some strains of flu and some strains of coronavirus. This particular strain of coronavirus hasn't been tested against black elderberry but the mechanism of action of elderberry is hypothesized to be generally anti-viral.

What I conclude: So, the way I look at it is if we don't know, then it's a 50/50 shot. So long as I am not removing other more reasonable opportunities from my choices by focusing on elderberry and not other reasonable choices, I am only adding to the probability of my successfully fighting it off faster. So if I get it and hospital beds are full and no other treatment options, I will take it and cross my fingers.

 

[blastula]

The more threads, the more scarier it becomes and the more opportunities to bash Trump

Yea, I have zero confidence in a leader who doesn't have basic understanding of science.

Hey, leave orange Britney alone. Nothing is his fault.

Trump says he takes 'no responsibility' for coronavirus failures as he declares national emergency – as it happened | US news | The Guardian

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The more threads, the more scarier it becomes and the more opportunities to bash Trump

Yea, I have zero confidence in a leader who doesn't have basic understanding of science.

Hey, leave orange Britney alone. Nothing is his fault.

Trump says he takes 'no responsibility' for coronavirus failures as he declares national emergency – as it happened | US news | The Guardian

You mean he caused the vacuum?

 

[Keith&Co.]

Hey, leave orange Britney alone. Nothing is his fault.

Trump says he takes 'no responsibility' for coronavirus failures as he declares national emergency – as it happened | US news | The Guardian

You mean he caused the vacuum?

ZSOMEONE fired the pandemic respone ninjas, but Bonespurs won't even admit to that. Someone on his team did it, or may have done it, he doesn't know anything about it.
Just what you need in an administration, idiots with blank checks and no oversight.
You'd think when he was briefed on thisbthree months sgo, part of the discussion would have been about whose job is it? And why aren't thry at their desks anymore?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Let's see how bad the GOP can fuck this up.

In fact, the bill guarantees sick leave only to about 20 percent of workers. Big employers like McDonald’s and Amazon are not required to provide any paid sick leave, while companies with fewer than 50 employees can seek hardship exemptions from the Trump administration.

The White House and congressional Republicans, who insisted on the exemptions as the price of bipartisan support for the legislation, bear the primary responsibility for the indefensible decision to prioritize corporate profits in the midst of a public health emergency.

Of course Nancy&Co were no help.

But House Democrats also failed to act in the public interest. Paying sick workers to stay at home is both good policy and good politics. Why not pass a bill that required all employers to provide paid sick leave and then force Republicans to explain their objections to the public?

Capitulation was necessary to get some relief out to the public or maybe to preserve the face of the Dems if your a glass is completely empty kind of person.

Some large employers have announced voluntary grants of paid sick leave for workers affected by the coronavirus. After a Walmart employee in Kentucky tested positive for the coronavirus, the company announced it would provide up to two weeks of paid leave for workers who fall ill or are quarantined because of a confirmed exposure to the virus. Other large employers, including Target, Gap and Wawa, have made similar announcements.

Well, what will come of this, with roughly half of the working US population making $15 an hour or less and only 20% of US workers even eligible for paid sick leave (and you can bet your sweet bippy affected employers will take a dim view on that)? So I will call this bipartisan bill most ineffective. But this so true for so much of the legislation that claims to benefit some segment of the public. The devil is in the details and unless you're affected and need to avail yourself of the benefit, you will likely never know just how ineffective the benefit actually is. As a veteran who has tried to avail himself of patriotic "we heart or vets" legislation in the past, I've read the details of many a program. By time you get through all the ifs, ands, and buts, most people find they have been assed out of taking advantage of said program.

And the low-wage workers who can least afford to stay home without paid leave are precisely the workers who are least likely to qualify for those standard corporate benefits.

The End.



NYT: Paid Sick Leave My Bleeding Ass.

 

[jonatha]

Let's see how bad the GOP can fuck this up.





Of course Nancy&Co were no help.

But House Democrats also failed to act in the public interest. Paying sick workers to stay at home is both good policy and good politics. Why not pass a bill that required all employers to provide paid sick leave and then force Republicans to explain their objections to the public?

Capitulation was necessary to get some relief out to the public or maybe to preserve the face of the Dems if your a glass is completely empty kind of person.

Some large employers have announced voluntary grants of paid sick leave for workers affected by the coronavirus. After a Walmart employee in Kentucky tested positive for the coronavirus, the company announced it would provide up to two weeks of paid leave for workers who fall ill or are quarantined because of a confirmed exposure to the virus. Other large employers, including Target, Gap and Wawa, have made similar announcements.

Well, what will come of this, with roughly half of the working US population making $15 an hour or less and only 20% of US workers even eligible for paid sick leave (and you can bet your sweet bippy affected employers will take a dim view on that)? So I will call this bipartisan bill most ineffective. But this so true for so much of the legislation that claims to benefit some segment of the public. The devil is in the details and unless you're affected and need to avail yourself of the benefit, you will likely never know just how ineffective the benefit actually is. As a veteran who has tried to avail himself of patriotic "we heart or vets" legislation in the past, I've read the details of many a program. By time you get through all the ifs, ands, and buts, most people find they have been assed out of taking advantage of said program.

And the low-wage workers who can least afford to stay home without paid leave are precisely the workers who are least likely to qualify for those standard corporate benefits.

The End.



NYT: Paid Sick Leave My Bleeding Ass.

I don't know what bill the author of that column was looking at. The text of what passed the house Saturday is on congress.gov, and the section that covers paid leave doesn't appear to have anything in it about large employers or hardship exemptions.

 

[ZiprHead]

I don't know what bill the author of that column was looking at. The text of what passed the house Saturday is on congress.gov, and the section that covers paid leave doesn't appear to have anything in it about large employers or hardship exemptions.

Probably in the senate "compromise".

 

[southernhybrid]

I just read a very disturbing piece written by a person who recently arrived at Dulles Airport. We are totally fucked!


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/15/chaos-dulles-airport-shows-how-not-handle-pandemic/

I flew back to the United States from Vienna on Friday. Arriving at Dulles International Airport via London, I encountered a case study in how to spread a pandemic.
I had thought I was lucky to get one of the last seats home. And I was confident, because Dulles had been identified by the administration as one of the handful of U.S. airports equipped to test arriving passengers and admit or quarantine them accordingly, that I would find a rigorous protocol in place upon arrival.

I could not have been more wrong. Upon landing, I spent three hours in a jammed immigration hall trying to decide which analogy fit better: the ignorant Middle Ages during the plague years or the most chaotic airport in the least developed country.
The pictures you may have seen only begin to capture the chaos. There was no attempt to enable social distancing; we were packed closely together. Two giant queues of people — one for U.S. citizens and green-card holders and one for foreign nationals — wound their way through the cavernous hall. I counted and came up with approximately 450 people in each section, for a total of just under a thousand. Many were coughing, sneezing and looking unwell.

Some of the agents were asking people to use the fingerprint screen — all fingers, then the thumbs. Mine didn’t, but I watched the adjoining one and was astounded to see that the screen was not wiped, sprayed or in any way sanitized between individuals, or indeed at all during the hour I had it in my line of sight.

She also compared the US response to the response in the Qatar airport, which she said was far more competent. Apparently, we will now learn how unprepared our country is to deal with a serious pandemic. If our so called leaders don't get their shit together.........

I'm in hibernation except to pick up things at the grocery store. So far, our stores here are fairly well stocked with food.

I'm not a believer in some of things that some of you have mentioned, but I do know that exercise is a great way to boost one's immunity, so y'all need to take a long walk or do some aerobic exercise. And laugh a lot. Laugher is also supposed to be a way to boost one's immune system. And please stay away from American airports. Oh, and stay well hydrated. Try to avoid stress if at all possible, and get a good night's sleep if at all possible. Those are all proven ways to improve one's immune system.

 

[jonatha]

I don't know what bill the author of that column was looking at. The text of what passed the house Saturday is on congress.gov, and the section that covers paid leave doesn't appear to have anything in it about large employers or hardship exemptions.

Probably in the senate "compromise".

The Senate hasn't been in session since the House passed its bill. Don't see how there could be anything to look at.

 

[jonatha]

I don't know what bill the author of that column was looking at. The text of what passed the house Saturday is on congress.gov, and the section that covers paid leave doesn't appear to have anything in it about large employers or hardship exemptions.

Probably in the senate "compromise".

The Senate hasn't been in session since the House passed its bill. Don't see how there could be anything to look at.

 

[steve_bank]

I listened to the author of a book on the Spanish Flu pandemic on NPR.

There were several waves. The first was not too bad. The govt responses were just like Trump, Hannity and the rest. It is not too bad, a regular flu by another name. No need to worry. It was the 2nd or 3rd wave that was the deadliest. It was thought the summer would kill it but it did not,. When quarantine was finally stared t was not enforced enough to make a difference. People just got tired of it.

The actual origin of the Spanish Flu was unknown but likely the USA.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This too is too simplistic. For one, there are many antivirals. That's why different antivirals are being furiously tested by the medical community. And second, even if these medications do not decrease the period virus is detectable, they may still reduce the severity of the illness (reducing the number of people needing ICU or even ventilation support would be a major breakthrough in itself!) and the infectious period.

I think this isn't the problem. If the virus is there for 5 weeks, how long is that person contagious, regardless if they have symptoms?

 

[AdamWho]

There an upper limit of 0.6% Case Fatality Rate (CFR). (As found by the S Koreans testing heavily).

If all 320 Million people the US gets this virus at a 0.6% CFR then 1.9 Million will die. This is clearly an upper bound.

Of course this is absurd.


Take South Korea with a population of 50 million. They have only seen 8000 cases, that is an infection rate of 0.00016 or 0.016%


So if the US has a similar trajectory it will have around 51200 cases with about 300 deaths.

And each one of those deaths will be "worth" about 10 billion dollars in economic activity lost in this panic.

 

[steve_bank]

The best answer I have heard is 'we really do not know'. All numbers are guesstamates based on what is reported. Nobody wants to say that too loud for fear of creating more uncertainty.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There an upper limit of 0.6% Case Fatality Rate (CFR). (As found by the S Koreans testing heavily).

If all 320 Million people the US gets this virus at a 0.6% CFR then 1.9 Million will die. This is clearly an upper bound.

Of course this is absurd.


Take South Korea with a population of 50 million. They have only seen 8000 cases, that is an infection rate of 0.00016 or 0.016%


So if the US has a similar trajectory it will have around 51200 cases with about 300 deaths.

And each one of those deaths will be "worth" about 10 billion dollars in economic activity lost in this panic.

And if only 10% are infected, that gives us 190,000 people. But I do give props to the 'fuck the victims, there is money to be made' attitude.

 

[Derec]

I think this isn't the problem.

You do not think people dying or getting so sick they need ICU is a problem? Surely if an at least partially effective treatment can be deployed and reduce the effects of the disease it would go a long way reducing the burden on the health system, not to mention the good it will do the affected individuals.

If the virus is there for 5 weeks, how long is that person contagious, regardless if they have symptoms?

Well an effective antiviral would decrease that as well. Also, just because virus is detectable for up to five weeks in the body, doesn't mean there are viable particles that can infect the next person that long.