Yep. Support for impeachment has increased
Dramatically in fact:
View attachment 25255
That's a 15% increase for Dems and a 10% for Indies, on average, since the Ukraine tip-o-the-berg, with only a slight dip from the beginning of the actual inquiry.
ETA: Let's break the numbers down. From PEW, we know that 38% of American voters are Indie; 33% are Dems; 28% are Repugs. As of 2016, there are supposedly 200 M registered voters. So, taking those percentages, we're looking at around 56 Million Dems; 33 Million Indies; and 5 Million Republicans that are registered voters and they favor impeachment (currently).
That's a total of 94 Million voters in favor of impeachment (currently).
Out of the 200 Million registered voters in 2016, around 138 Million voted and we saw a surge in 2018 (but among Dems, primarily), so let's say 140 Million will vote in 2020. Since someone saying they favor impeachment is a good indicator they will also actually vote, that's 94 Million out of 140 Million actual voters that currently feel that Trump should be forcibly removed from office, or almost 70% of likely voters.
That means (as I've noted for several months now and the numbers haven't changed) Trump must accomplish a 20% swing--and that only among Indies, not Dems--
just to get to parity. To get beyond 50/50, he'd have to move the needle by at least four or five more differential points.
So, basically, Trump must suppress AND swing around 25% of currently deeply anti-Trump voters in order to win in 2020.
Anyone still not understand now why he tried to get foreign countries to fake a Steele Dossier for him?
The Russian information warfare--that is still very much in place and has likely grown exponentially, but is hampered by the fact that we are aware of it at least--can only, at best, move the needle by fractions of 1%, but, let's say it's now at a solid 2% effectiveness, which is extremely generous.
That leaves a good 23% that Trump needs to flip. Not just get his own party out to vote (they already do); but FLIP 23%
at least of Dem leaning Indies just for him to have a reliable chance to win.
The suppression of black votes was a primary target in 2016 (and still is), but he and the GOP and the Russians only managed to suppress something like 4% as an effective differential accounting for volume and the like.
So he's at around 19% that he would still need to flip. Again, not just account for, but
flip.
Short of personally giving that 19/20% millions of dollars, there's just no way he can do it. Even if he isn't thrown out of office, at best he'd get a 10% to 15% bump from being "exonerated" by the Senate (and that is being EXTREMELY generous), but that still means--at the absolute extreme maximum--a solid 5% that simply aren't going to flip no matter what he does.
He can't get more voters; he can't do any more dirty tricks. At BEST he will still be 5% (likely more like 10%) behind the eight ball no matter what he attempts.
Iow, the best of the best of the best he can hope for will be to come within 5% of winning, which means he'll lose.
ETAETA: Which means that the ONLY hope for Trump to win is if the Russians have successfully hacked the actual voting machines and will be able to change actual votes.
I don't think that's out of the realm, but, again, we're talking about at least a 5 (to 10)% manipulation that will be noticed.