Polls And Surveys - Trump Will Lose In 2020

[Jolly_Penguin]

I hope I am wrong, but if we nominate someone perceived as too far left, that could make it very difficult to win any of the states that are needed to beat Trump.

Yang does better than the others in the primary in getting votes from across party lines. Probably because he spun the freedom dividend as a dividend everybody gets and not merely as welfare. Democracy dollars that he supports also has cross party appeal.

What a bullshit statement. I don't recall any Democrats calling for a program called Medicare for All Democrats or Public College for All Democrats. You see the Dems divide and conquer statements because of your own bias.

WTF are you on about? I didn't say any Democrats called for that.

Conservatives tend to not support welfare programs and tell people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, etc. Yang's freedom dividend is for everyone and can therefore be presented as not being welfare, so can appeal to these conservatives.

Democracy dollars can also appeal to both sides of the aisle, as both sides have money from billionaires supporting them. Just raise the spectre of George Soros to get some conservatives on board.

 

[Elixir]

Just raise the spectre of George Soros to get some conservatives on board.

Heh - good point. And thanks to Trump, we can also go after Bezos' billions, Gates' billions, Tim Cook's billions - in fact, Trump will eagerly encourage his drooling followers to take money away from all of the actual billionaires who actually made their billions, of whom he is terminally jealous.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What a bullshit statement. I don't recall any Democrats calling for a program called Medicare for All Democrats or Public College for All Democrats. You see the Dems divide and conquer statements because of your own bias.

WTF are you on about? I didn't say any Democrats called for that.

Conservatives tend to not support welfare programs and tell people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, etc. Yang's freedom dividend is for everyone and can therefore be presented as not being welfare, so can appeal to these conservatives.

The ACA isn't marketed as welfare. Public education isn't marketed as welfare. UHC isn't marketed as welfare... conservatives hate all of those things... well, at least people that call themselves conservative and vote for Trump. So what Yang is doing isn't any different.

 

[Gun Nut]

Will Faux Nooz program hosts be committing hari kari on air the day after election day?

No, they'll be following Uncle Vlad's direction and echoing Cheato's outrage at the "rigged election".
Ho hum.

I'd put this into stone. It is guaranteed.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

I agree. So why not head that off at the pass and have the Democrats call for a more open and transparent election. So when Trump tries to play this card, they can throw that in his face?

 

[Gun Nut]

I agree. So why not head that off at the pass and have the Democrats call for a more open and transparent election. So when Trump tries to play this card, they can throw that in his face?

my response to that is it's too late in the cycle... An impactful enough change to how elections are run likely would take a constitutional amendment. You need full Democratic control over both houses and the cabinet to make a change that would positively help only one team.

I like how my state (Colorado) does its elections. Every registered voter gets an uniquely identifiable balot in the mail (bar code). You have 2 weeks to fill it out and either mail it, drop it off at a ballot box (located at every train station, and other strategic locations to ensure convenience to all), or hand it in at an election office.
Once your ballot is received, it is scanned in and it's status updated throughout it's lifecycle.... "pending", "received", "validated", "counted".
You can track your ballot status online anytime. It will send you notification if there was a problem with the balot (duplicate, conflicting entry, etc....) or you can just see the status by checking it.

That is my idea of being pretty transparent... but in my opinion, the real change is needed on the federal level with respect to the electoral college. It needs to go.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I agree. So why not head that off at the pass and have the Democrats call for a more open and transparent election. So when Trump tries to play this card, they can throw that in his face?

The Dems already passed legislation that the GOP is ignoring in the Senate.

 

[PyramidHead]

Polls and surveys said the same thing about 2016, no?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polls and surveys said the same thing about 2016, no?

On averages, national polls were ultimately right, statewide polls were right, depending on state (NH, CO, VA, FL were all accurate and IA, OH, NC picked the correct winner if not off by about 5 pts on margin). Oddly enough the "biased" Republican polling helped get some of the states right on the prediction.

Industrial and rural areas were under Trumped in the polls (but it was based on previous results). Aldo, Andrew McCabe's leak surely had an unknown consequence in the election in states like PA and WI which saw deflated Democrat vote totals in areas (PA) and in whole (WI).

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Plus all polls incorporate a +/- error rate, which, in 2016 was larger than what actually ended up happening to put Trump in the WH.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

my response to that is it's too late in the cycle...

To actually get it done, maybe so. But you don't have to actually get it done to counter Trump's election rigging rhetoric. You just have to establish in the psyche of the nation that you are pushing for transparency and the Republicans are blocking it.

 

[PyramidHead]

my response to that is it's too late in the cycle...

To actually get it done, maybe so. But you don't have to actually get it done to counter Trump's election rigging rhetoric. You just have to establish in the psyche of the nation that you are pushing for transparency and the Republicans are blocking it.

You just have to overwhelm the polls with so many votes that they can't be rigged away. Play the long game, and go for the next generation of voters (and leaders) instead of the old guard. It's easy for Republicans to rig elections when so many people don't vote because they aren't inspired by any of the candidates.

 

[Elixir]

my response to that is it's too late in the cycle...

To actually get it done, maybe so. But you don't have to actually get it done to counter Trump's election rigging rhetoric. You just have to establish in the psyche of the nation that you are pushing for transparency and the Republicans are blocking it.

You just have to overwhelm the polls with so many votes that they can't be rigged away. Play the long game, and go for the next generation of voters (and leaders) instead of the old guard. It's easy for Republicans to rig elections when so many people don't vote because they aren't inspired by any of the candidates.

Try though they might, Dem voters will never approach the lemminghood of the Republican electorate. It would take a candidate in a billion to unite them with the fervor with which Republicans will spontaneously rally around whoever they're told to - even a transparently ignorant, cruel, self-interested psychopath who would just as soon shit on them as look at them.

 

[Gun Nut]

You just have to overwhelm the polls with so many votes that they can't be rigged away. Play the long game, and go for the next generation of voters (and leaders) instead of the old guard. It's easy for Republicans to rig elections when so many people don't vote because they aren't inspired by any of the candidates.

Try though they might, Dem voters will never approach the lemminghood of the Republican electorate. It would take a candidate in a billion to unite them with the fervor with which Republicans will spontaneously rally around whoever they're told to - even a transparently ignorant, cruel, self-interested psychopath who would just as soon shit on them as look at them.

Try? I see no try here. Dems are doing everything they possibly can to do the opposite. As per the usual. In this case, a thousand candidates - all arguing against each other over how unwoke they are and how stupid their policies are, and basically handing the election over to the Reps, who need only play the tapes of the debates to allow the Dems to explain in their own words why no one should vote for any of them. And the Dems have nothing from the "other side" about Trump... except how great he always is about everything...
No.. If they were attempting to be anywhere on the same planet as "trying", then there would be 1 candidate and a thousand voices praising him or her on how totally perfect and awesome they are. And the choice is obvious.

Joe Biden. Vice president for the most popular and highest approved President in US history. <mic drop>
No questions.
No answers.
best VP ever. That's it.


Q "what's your policy for healthcare"

A "it will be the best you ever seen. I was the VP for Obama, motherfucker!"

Q" what are you going to do about X"

A "I actually know more about X than Trump. It will work out the best with me. Go vote for the VP of the smartest prez ever!"


Q "what do you have to say about....."

A "let me cut you off right there and say, "vote for me... best VP ever! Back to normal for us all!"

 

[Trausti]

Well Drumpf is polling behind the Democrat in Wisconsin. He's toast.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...pproval-takes-hit-in-battleground-states-poll

...
President Trump's economic approval numbers are declining in key battleground states and he trails a generic Democrat in the race for the White House, according to a poll conducted by Priorities USA, the nation’s largest Democratic super PAC.The survey of Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin finds a generic Democrat leading Trump 48 percent to 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Thirty-six percent said they would definitely vote for the Democrat, against only 26 percent who said they would definitely vote for Trump.
...

Oozing towards November 6, 2020.

 

[Derec]

President Trump's economic approval numbers are declining in key battleground states and he trails a generic Democrat in the race for the White House,

If only Democrats could run that guy!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

President Trump's economic approval numbers are declining in key battleground states and he trails a generic Democrat in the race for the White House,

If only Democrats could run that guy!

Or maybe that gal. Elizabeth Warren, first female president of the United states? I would love to see conservative heads exploding across this great nation on November 7, 2020!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ns-in-views-of-governments-role-and-of-trump/

Pew Research

Currently, 47% of men say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, with an equal share saying they disapprove (47%). By contrast, 32% of women say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president; 63% say they disapprove.

Since women voters outnumber male voters, this looks like a problem for the orange fool. Of course it all is a matter of turn out. But I don't see women voters sitting 2020 out. The full scale attack of the GOP on women's health issues, abortion, birth control, defunding planned parenthood, attacking Obamacare and more will almost surely galvanize unhappy women voters.

 

[PyramidHead]

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ns-in-views-of-governments-role-and-of-trump/

Pew Research

Currently, 47% of men say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, with an equal share saying they disapprove (47%). By contrast, 32% of women say they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president; 63% say they disapprove.

Since women voters outnumber male voters, this looks like a problem for the orange fool. Of course it all is a matter of turn out. But I don't see women voters sitting 2020 out. The full scale attack of the GOP on women's health issues, abortion, birth control, defunding planned parenthood, attacking Obamacare and more will almost surely galvanize unhappy women voters.

What new information on any of these topics do you think women have in 2019 that they didn't have in 2016? Any woman who remotely cares about them would, by definition, have never voted for a GOP candidate in the last 20 years at least.