Elixir
Made in America
Yeah, I'm thinking of getting a sex change operation just so I can vote against Cheato as a woman.
LULZ! Ya trying to start WWIII?
-
Features
Polls And Surveys - Trump Will Lose In 2020
- Thread starter Cheerful Charlie
- Start date
Yeah, I'm thinking of getting a sex change operation just so I can vote against Cheato as a woman.
LULZ! Ya trying to start WWIII?
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 44,063
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
Ultimately, it matters more state wise, WI, MI, PA. It is hopeful though. Trump likely can't win an election if he losing more than 60% of the women vote. Of course, W was flirting with 50% and beat Kerry. And clearly conservatives are really good at holding their noses in the polls.
Keith&Co.
Contributor
- Joined
- Mar 31, 2006
- Messages
- 22,444
- Location
- Far Western Mass
- Gender
- Here.
- Basic Beliefs
- I'm here...
Well, the poll specifically says 'how Trump is handling his job.' In 2016, his work experience as a President was zip nada. So the 'new information' they have is 2017, 2018, most of 2019...
Or, Kavanaugh, shutdowns, trade wars, conviction as a charity embezzler....
I'd have said 'cared' rather than 'cares.' Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump for more than six years is not terribly surprised by anything that's happened in the last three. But it is possible for people who did not care in 2016 to have come to care, now, as his antics get more and more coverage. Or maybe just one issue or item weighs heavily on their individual opinions.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
In 2020 the GOP will rely on fear mongering. Gun grabbers! Gun grabbers! Socialism! Socialism! But this time will be met by a counter barrage. Women's health issues! Attacks on birth control! More tax cuts for the rich! Repealing ACA! Slashing Social security, Medicare and Medicaid! I predict this will be the most vicious election ever. And loudest and most obnoxious.
What is still unclear is who will eventually win the Democratic nomination. And how that will play out.
What is still unclear is who will eventually win the Democratic nomination. And how that will play out.
PyramidHead
Contributor
You have just described the last five elections, this isn't new.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Trump's utter lies. He claimed he would save Social Security and Medicare, and now tells us slashing both of these programs will be a project after his re-election. He has not spoken out as the GOP has destroyed Planned Parenthood. Or spoken out against the waves of laws from the GOP nationwide attacking Women's health issues. His plans for more tax cuts for the rich despite our already massive deficits. It is now very clear what Trump does and stands for. This was becoming clear in 2018 which was why the Democrats took back Congress in a big blue wave. Kavanaugh. The sorts of people Trump will seat on the supreme court given the chance if re-elected.
Trump won a bare majority of women's votes in 2016. But it is obvious from numerous polls Trump has lost the women's votes big time.
The pressure is on and women will not be voting for Trump and will not be staying home on election day.
PyramidHead
Contributor
I hope you're right, but all those things were pretty predictable behaviors for any Republican. You've described the agenda they've been publicly pushing for decades now. I'm not seeing anything enormously different about Trump in the areas you mentioned when compared to any Republican president or major candidate in recent memory.
What I'm saying is: don't repeat the mistake of 2016, during which time all of the above issues were well within the ability of women to understand, AND Trump's opponent was already popular with women because she would have made history as one if she won, and it still wasn't enough to defeat Trump in the electoral college.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/
Here is an interesting read. Rachel Bitecofer was one of the few analysts who correctly called 2018. She analyzes races based on partisanship.
...
Yet, the media (and the voting public) has turned Trump’s 2016 win into a mythic legend of invincibility. The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.
....
Trump’s second problem is that along with a turnout surge of Democrats that in many states like Virginia is simply larger than the turnout surges of Republicans because of demographics, he is deeply unpopular among Independents because of all the abnormal, norm-breaking and according to the Mueller Report, even illegal things, he does as president. This has left him with an abysmal approval rating of just 34.8% in 2019 among Independents, who largely broke against Republicans in the 2018 midterms as my theory predicted.
...
Final prediction for electoral college in 2020
Democrat: 278 votes Republican: 197 votes
Trump is losing women and Independents. And is energizing them to turn out and not make the mistakes of 2016.
Here is an interesting read. Rachel Bitecofer was one of the few analysts who correctly called 2018. She analyzes races based on partisanship.
...
Yet, the media (and the voting public) has turned Trump’s 2016 win into a mythic legend of invincibility. The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.
....
Trump’s second problem is that along with a turnout surge of Democrats that in many states like Virginia is simply larger than the turnout surges of Republicans because of demographics, he is deeply unpopular among Independents because of all the abnormal, norm-breaking and according to the Mueller Report, even illegal things, he does as president. This has left him with an abysmal approval rating of just 34.8% in 2019 among Independents, who largely broke against Republicans in the 2018 midterms as my theory predicted.
...
Final prediction for electoral college in 2020
Democrat: 278 votes Republican: 197 votes
Trump is losing women and Independents. And is energizing them to turn out and not make the mistakes of 2016.
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2002
- Messages
- 38,794
- Location
- Frozen in Michigan
- Gender
- Old Fart
- Basic Beliefs
- Don't be a dick.
Bonespurs just barely squeaked by in Michigan. A lot of union autoworkers voted for him. They now feel very betrayed by him. He won't take michigan this time.
Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 44,063
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
A very reasonable assumption. Of course, so was the assumption Trump would never achieve any of the achievements he did achieve in the primary and general elections.
fast
Contributor
Is there a relationship between wishful thinking and prediction or what?
All the ‘reasons’ in the world won’t change things. You can despise him, hate him, and bring to the table all the reasons in the world to demonstrate he will not get elected again. Bring it on! Conjure every conceivable thing you think shows that his chances of winning are nearly nil. Yes, your good reasons should ordinarily influence your prediction, but this is Trump we’re dealing with. He has already and continually defied odds that are best barely explainable post hoc.
That said, good reason alone needs be great (and not merely good), for as I see it, persistently winning in the face of growing good reason to fail requires a higher standard for assessment. If he has a heart attack and passes away, I’m going to take a strong pause of hesitancy before responding to someone who says, “well, he’s not gonna win this time.”
Sure, he can fail. It’s possible. And, there are plenty (garboodles) of reasons to think his reign is coming to an end, but I’d caution not to underestimate him—at least not until the curtain has fully been drawn down. It’s not over until it’s over; trivially true, but I say that for emphasis.
Now to my question.
Yes, we can wish for something to occur and refrain from predicting based on that, but with reasons to support our wishes, the prediction is almost guaranteed to be made. There is a poster here that once said there was no way Trump would ever become president, and he was not without good reason as Trump defied odds yet again.
Not all the facts are considered. We are misguided into thinking certain strong facts overwhelm the seemingly innocuous. They are in essence given a lower weight in our overall assessment. Generally, that makes sense to disregard low impact reasons, but (again) in the face of persistent winning against the odds requires a more in depth analysis checking for things that may explain why he is going to win this time.
It’s difficult, I know. The better explanations don’t often surface until after the befuddlement of an unexpected win occurs.
So, with all these reasons for why he won’t win, where’s the wishing thinking connection? It’s in understanding that the reasonings brought forward are insufficient given his track record. Oh please, use your logic and explain to me that the predictions are completely fact dependent.
PS; I wasn’t talking to anyone in particular; I just didn’t feel like using “one”.
All the ‘reasons’ in the world won’t change things. You can despise him, hate him, and bring to the table all the reasons in the world to demonstrate he will not get elected again. Bring it on! Conjure every conceivable thing you think shows that his chances of winning are nearly nil. Yes, your good reasons should ordinarily influence your prediction, but this is Trump we’re dealing with. He has already and continually defied odds that are best barely explainable post hoc.
That said, good reason alone needs be great (and not merely good), for as I see it, persistently winning in the face of growing good reason to fail requires a higher standard for assessment. If he has a heart attack and passes away, I’m going to take a strong pause of hesitancy before responding to someone who says, “well, he’s not gonna win this time.”
Sure, he can fail. It’s possible. And, there are plenty (garboodles) of reasons to think his reign is coming to an end, but I’d caution not to underestimate him—at least not until the curtain has fully been drawn down. It’s not over until it’s over; trivially true, but I say that for emphasis.
Now to my question.
Yes, we can wish for something to occur and refrain from predicting based on that, but with reasons to support our wishes, the prediction is almost guaranteed to be made. There is a poster here that once said there was no way Trump would ever become president, and he was not without good reason as Trump defied odds yet again.
Not all the facts are considered. We are misguided into thinking certain strong facts overwhelm the seemingly innocuous. They are in essence given a lower weight in our overall assessment. Generally, that makes sense to disregard low impact reasons, but (again) in the face of persistent winning against the odds requires a more in depth analysis checking for things that may explain why he is going to win this time.
It’s difficult, I know. The better explanations don’t often surface until after the befuddlement of an unexpected win occurs.
So, with all these reasons for why he won’t win, where’s the wishing thinking connection? It’s in understanding that the reasonings brought forward are insufficient given his track record. Oh please, use your logic and explain to me that the predictions are completely fact dependent.
PS; I wasn’t talking to anyone in particular; I just didn’t feel like using “one”.
laughing dog
Contributor
There is still a lot of time between now and the actual election for the Democrats to screw this up and/or for Trump to pull this in out.
Who's getting the other 63 votes?
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
Pretty much. But he's also losing "strong approvers" among Republicans. Here's the latest YouGov poll:
And here they break it down even further:
That bottom section in particular is revealing. 53% of Republicans approve of "most" things Trump has done, but disapprove of a "few" things. I know that seems a little tame, but consider the level of entrenched support that Trump used to get among Republicans. If 53% are willing to finally concede--in a poll--that some of the things he's done aren't all that kosher with them, then that's actually a very large chink in the armor.
Combine that with only 62% of Republicans "strongly approving" of his job overall and we're looking at a huge potential swing and/or just sit this one out contingent.
And look at the white/male (aged 30-44)/$50-100K contingent, Trump's strongest support demographic. Only 30% across that board "strongly approve." For any incumbent, to have that low of an approval rating among your staunchest supporters is catastrophic to say the least. And among white/male (aged 18-29)/under $50K it's even worse, at something on the order of only 12% of that combined group strongly approving.
Among Indies (in general), only 19% "strongly" approve.
And, again, the reason to focus first on the "strongly approve" category is that they represent the percentage that a candidate can more-or-less safely count on in order to focus their attention on the others who aren't so strong, because those are the wild(er) cards; the fencesitters/potential swing/potential just won't bothers.
So he's got a huge problem to surmount--before he can even get to dealing with the overwhelming numbers of Democrats--particularly since Indies are the largest voting block and Republicans, in general, only make up about 23% of the electorate to begin with. So 62% total "strongly support" is 62% of 23%, or 14% of the total electorate that he can count on.
Even if you include the "somewhat approve" as a solid (and you can't), it's only at 88% approve. Which, again, is 88% of 23%, or 20% up against 35% Dems and 38% Indies total electorate.
So even if every single Republican in America who approves (somewhat or strongly) of Trump actually got off their asses and voted--and every single Independent who approves of Trump (somewhat or strongly) got off their asses and voted--he's still outnumbered by Dems and left-leaning Indies on the order of 20-25%.
Which in turn means he needs to either (or, in combination) suppress at least 25% of both Dems and Indies, or otherwise convince 25% to swing to him. There are only 12% among Indies who are "not sure" and only 1% among Dems.
So at the very least he'd need to convince that 13% to vote for him and suppress 12% Dems/Indies; i.e., to convince them to just not bother to vote the way the Russians did in 2016. They only managed to suppress about 2%-4% (if that) and that almost entirely among blacks.
They haven't stopped running their warfare, of course, but to make up an additional 10% suppression through the same tactics would be a nearly impossible feat, but even more improbable is Trump being able to convince the other 13% Dems/Indies to vote for him, while Russia successfully suppresses the other 10%.
There are other suppression tactics that will be incorporated--as they always are, because Republicans can only win by cheating--but they wouldn't come anywhere near 10%, let alone the full 25% necessary.
And that's just to even the playing field; to get parity of percentages, not necessarily anything to do with winning. That's just to get Trump's numbers up to the level where he can actually compete.
PyramidHead
Contributor
Susan Sarandon
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
There is still plenty of time for Trump to further screw his chances for re-election. And given his habits of rage tweeting and off the wall antics, I don't see him changing much. The entire nation may very well be suffering a bad case of Trump fatigue by November 6, 2020.
Koyaanisqatsi
Veteran Member
I'd lay even money he tries (and likely has been trying) to foment a "war." And by that, I of course mean a false pretense to kill a lot of brown people or their cultural equivalent. Iran seems the most likely, but China is also a contender. It all depends on who Putin wants us to attack, so I'd lean more toward Iran. Syria wasn't big enough to do anything for Trump--try as he and Putin did to make it a game-changer--so it would have to be something bigger (like Iran or China, but /China is too big, so maybe it will finally be North Korea with China agreeing--through Putin--to not do anything in retaliation).
Something along these lines. Something monumental as nothing else will do it. But then he's got the "deep state" that ironically formed because of his blatant allegiance to Putin to supposedly stop him.
My additional guess would be that's why Bolton quit. Either he knew of or guessed that was where Trump was heading and even he didn't want any part of it.
He won't have the wall anywhere near up nor will making more promises about it help, even if he did manage to raise the money. Unless Putin pulls something like MidEast peace (or its facade) and that's what the whole Netanyahu bullshit was about.
Something along these lines. Something monumental as nothing else will do it. But then he's got the "deep state" that ironically formed because of his blatant allegiance to Putin to supposedly stop him.
My additional guess would be that's why Bolton quit. Either he knew of or guessed that was where Trump was heading and even he didn't want any part of it.
He won't have the wall anywhere near up nor will making more promises about it help, even if he did manage to raise the money. Unless Putin pulls something like MidEast peace (or its facade) and that's what the whole Netanyahu bullshit was about.
PyramidHead
Contributor
Also, the polls are mostly moot if the recession that's been due for over a year hits between now and election day.
The polls didn't show the effects of Comey's surprise because the pollsters didn't have time machines.
The possibilities are endless...
Most probable cause for a Trump victory?
1) All the Democrats are talking about how all the Democratic Candidates are terrible for the Country... just take any 30 second clip from the debates as an example... the Republicans certainly will.
2) All of the Republicans are talking about how PERFECT the ONE chosen (and incumbent) candidate for President is.
Given only this, who in their right minds would vote for anyone but Trump, who has complete and total consensus, whereas any other candidate has nothing but contention amongst their own people.