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Polls And Surveys - Trump Will Lose In 2020

People did not know how bad he would be if elected. All they knew about him was his show "The Apprentice" and "Make America Great Again!". Now people know better. He is a rage twittering nincompoop with a bad attitude.
 
People did not know how bad he would be if elected. All they knew about him was his show "The Apprentice" and "Make America Great Again!". Now people know better. He is a rage twittering nincompoop with a bad attitude.

I don't know where you're getting this idea that his reputation has tanked so dramatically. He's about where Obama was in terms of approval at this point in his presidency, and the trend from week 1 is basically a straight line overall:

trump-obama-approval-ratings-infographic.jpg
 
People did not know how bad he would be if elected. All they knew about him was his show "The Apprentice" and "Make America Great Again!". Now people know better. He is a rage twittering nincompoop with a bad attitude.

I don't know where you're getting this idea that his reputation has tanked so dramatically. He's about where Obama was in terms of approval at this point in his presidency, and the trend from week 1 is basically a straight line overall:

View attachment 23924

tentatively granting that this chart represents any kind of defensible data.. it is showing that Obama lost 6 points over 32 months and Trump lost 27 points over 32 months.
"Tanked" is a pretty fair assessment of such a severe droppage of approval. If it isn't, then what on god's green earth would even be then?
 
People did not know how bad he would be if elected. All they knew about him was his show "The Apprentice" and "Make America Great Again!". Now people know better. He is a rage twittering nincompoop with a bad attitude.

I don't know where you're getting this idea that his reputation has tanked so dramatically. He's about where Obama was in terms of approval at this point in his presidency, and the trend from week 1 is basically a straight line overall:

View attachment 23924

Well, if Trump can do what Obama did, he's in great shape. Obama's approve/disapprove was 7 points underwater at this time in 2011, got to 9 over by the first week of October and was still plus 8 by the first week of november 2012. And went up bigly after the election. Trump hasn't been on the plus side for one single day of his regrettable tenure.

Unfortunately for Trump... he's no Obama.
grump.jpg
 
https://news.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

Obama from 2014 had rising approval ratings. he had reasonably high ratings during to 2012 elections despite the GOP slash and burn attacks on him.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ns-in-views-of-governments-role-and-of-trump/

As of 4-11-2019, men gave Trump a 44% approval rating, while women only gave Trump a 31% rating. Since women usually out number men at the voting booths, this spells trouble for the orange buffoon. Trumpo only has 16 months to turn this around.

And if he can stop shooting himself in the foot with moronic stunts.
 
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...t-gender-gap-62-percent-of-women-say-they-are

In a new poll, a significant majority of American women who are registered to vote say they are not likely to support President Trump’s re-election effort in 2020, setting him up with a gender gap that may prove difficult to overcome.

In a June 1-2 Hill-HarrisX survey, 62 percent of female registered voters said they were unlikely to support Trump’s bid to obtain a second term. Fifty-three percent said they were very unlikely to back Trump while 9 percent said they were somewhat unlikely. Thirty-eight percent of women who participated said they were likely to back Trump.

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He be toast. Burnt black toast left under the broiler too long. Wad that tine foil up and run it out to the trash can.
 
I don't know where you're getting this idea that his reputation has tanked so dramatically. He's about where Obama was in terms of approval at this point in his presidency, and the trend from week 1 is basically a straight line overall

Per usual, you're ironically not looking at why that is. Obama inherited one of the worst economic disasters in US history and right at that time in his Presidency he had several notable failures:

The most notable event in Obama's 11th quarter was probably the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling in late July and early August. Shortly after the agreement was reached, the stock market plummeted after Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Later, the government's jobs report showed no new net jobs were created in August, a sign the economy was still a long way from recovery. The president has been unsuccessful so far in getting Congress to pass the jobs bill he proposed in early September.
...
Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country remains at historically low levels, and Americans clearly identify the economy and unemployment as the most important problems facing the United States. Thus, a second Obama term likely hinges on whether there are signs of economic progress in the coming months.

Trump has no comparable issues; indeed just the opposite if you listen to him. With the exception of trade annihilation fluctuations in the market and bonds imploding--which average voters know little about and therefore wouldn't be reflected in a gallup poll--both the economy and employment have been on a more-or-less steady incline for Trump's entire term (thanks to Obama, primarily). Just now we are hearing the fears of recession and bubbles and the like, yet that clearly isn't impacting the polls or those numbers would be down, not up.

So, the average voter (as reflected in poll respondents) is going on media and perceptions of how unsinkable is the Titanic and clearly not on looking forward to the trajectory and what lies ahead in the waters.
 
People did not know how bad he would be if elected. All they knew about him was his show "The Apprentice" and "Make America Great Again!". Now people know better. He is a rage twittering nincompoop with a bad attitude.

I don't know where you're getting this idea that his reputation has tanked so dramatically. He's about where Obama was in terms of approval at this point in his presidency, and the trend from week 1 is basically a straight line overall:

View attachment 23924

tentatively granting that this chart represents any kind of defensible data.. it is showing that Obama lost 6 points over 32 months and Trump lost 27 points over 32 months.
"Tanked" is a pretty fair assessment of such a severe droppage of approval. If it isn't, then what on god's green earth would even be then?

Pssst...

The blue line is Obama dude
 
Maven who engineered Democrats' first blue wave spots another on the horizon | The Times of Israel
notes
Opinion | The Republican Party Is Doomed - The New York Times - "This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?"
Seems too good to be true.
The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 left the vast majority of working people and the Democrats’ base of African-Americans, Hispanics, single women and millennials shattered for years. They lost much of their wealth and were forced into new jobs that often paid less. Many faced prohibitive student debt. With wages stagnant for a decade, they were frustrated with the daunting costs of health care, prescription drugs, child care and housing. Yet in the main, Mr. Obama, Hillary Clinton — and now Mr. Trump — hailed the economy’s progress, the millions of new jobs. But that was and is clueless. Mr. Trump will be the latest presidential candidate punished by the voters for not getting it.

... In 2018, Democrats succeeded by attacking Republicans for attempting to repeal Obamacare and failing to lower skyrocketing prescription drug costs. They proposed trillion-dollar investments in infrastructure and battled to drive dark money out of politics.

... After coming to power in the 2010 wave election, the Republicans tried to keep the government from addressing virtually any problem at all.

... The Democrats watched in frustration as the government was presumed to be impotent to address wage stagnation, surging inequality, climate change, the slaughter from automatic weapons and the flood of dark money into politics.

But this dam has burst. With Mr. Trump’s ever-escalating assault on government, the proportion of Americans who say that government “should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of people” surged to the highest level in 20 years. Democratic candidates who understand this political moment will push for a government that changes the country’s course, as it did under Democratic presidents after the progressive victories of 2008 and 1964 and especially after the 1932 triumph of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal.
Gilded Age II has gone on for far too long, and the Left has not succeeded in ending it yet. I had high hopes for Bill Clinton's Presidency, but after saying the right things, he wimped out. I had similar high hopes for Barack Obama's Presidency, but while he had more success than Bill Clinton, he was obsessed with trying to make deals with the Republicans, even as they obstructed him. The Wisconsin Revolt against Governor Scott Walker failed, and the Occupy Wall Street movement was similarly unsuccessful. The Occupiers never created alternative meeting places, so when they were kicked out of city parks, they dispersed.

More recently, the Left has shifted to electing Congresspeople. Several of them won in 2018, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the most prominent one. There are more who will be trying in 2020, with some of them being compared to AOC herself.
 
And yet, his party is unraveling. A quarter of Republicans were moderates in 2018, and 30 percent defected to the Democrats or stayed home in the midterms. This year, the secular conservatives and moderates who are the least enthusiastic about Mr. Trump moved away from the party, leaving it dominated by evangelicals, the Tea Party and observant Catholics.

...
But Mr. Trump playing the immigrant card as president has made Americans more favorable to immigration and immigrants — almost two-thirds now say that immigration benefits the country. His attack on immigrants has created a growing consciousness that we are a country of immigrants.

Like it or not in Mr. Trump’s America, the Republicans will now be the anti-immigrant party and the Democrats the pro-immigrant party, confidently associated with America’s multiculturalism.

...
The Democrats want a powerful, activist government after years of gridlock and political impotence. More than three quarters of them believe that sharper regulation of business is necessary to protect the public, that government benefits for the poor don’t go far enough, that racial discrimination still blocks black advancement and that stricter environment laws are worth the cost. Two-thirds believe that corporations make too much profit. They want a very different America from the one Republicans have forged.

When you combine Mr. Trump pushing moderates out of the Republican Party and the changing attitudes his rhetoric and policies have brought about with the Democrats’ pro-government fervor, you have a recipe for transformation. Democrats should be looking not just to defeat Donald Trump and the Republican Party, but to get to work building a bold era of progressive reform.
That may be a contribution to AOC's celebrity: that she is very straightforward and unapologetic about her policy positions. She calls for Medicare for All rather than wringing her hands about how we can't do anything more than a few tweaks here and there. There's also the personality she projects, that of being a very likable "girl next door" and "Ms. Smith goes to Washington". AOC is only one person, but she is part of a progressive wave, a wave that is likely to get bigger in the coming years. But she seems like she will end up a spiritual leader of it.


That aside, Mr. Greenberg may be overconfident, because the Republican Party won't go down without a fight.
 
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