Post-poll Brexit poll

[Playball40]

This is the only Brexit thread that needs to be carried on here.

I think that the politicians won't vote for it because of the conflict of interest of having cushy unelected civil service jobs with the EU. If they leave that source of income is gone forever.

Mass revolt is the only solution.

What source of income? The UK pays £35,000,000 per day to the EU It also buys more from the EU than it sells to it. We don't want criminal gangs pouring in from some parts of Europe because there are no laws against them entering the UK even if they have been arrested there.

See now I've heard that this figure is absolute bollocks. And even Boris is back tracking.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

If the UK really intends to get out of the EU they'd best get on with it. And if the UK really intends to remain in the EU despite the vote they'd best make that crystal clear as soon as possible.

The result of the vote has weakened Britain's position in the EU regardless of whether Britain has officially invoked Article 50. The other members of the EU are going to marginalize the UK as much as possible. I note that the UK's most senior official (Jonathan Hill, who held the financial services portfolio, one of particular interest to the UK) has resigned. Anybody want to bet that he will be replaced by another Brit?

Merkel and Hollande have just held a joint news conference. I speak both German and French and they basically said "don't let the door hit you on the way out."

The apparent present strategy of delaying things doesn't look like it's going to work....

They do have to be tough because they don't wanting this leaving business to become a thing. If they take a firm and hard line against England, it will discourage other members from wanting to get out based on a poor understanding of the consequences.

 

[SimpleDon]

If the UK really intends to get out of the EU they'd best get on with it. And if the UK really intends to remain in the EU despite the vote they'd best make that crystal clear as soon as possible.

The result of the vote has weakened Britain's position in the EU regardless of whether Britain has officially invoked Article 50. The other members of the EU are going to marginalize the UK as much as possible. I note that the UK's most senior official (Jonathan Hill, who held the financial services portfolio, one of particular interest to the UK) has resigned. Anybody want to bet that he will be replaced by another Brit?

Merkel and Hollande have just held a joint news conference. I speak both German and French and they basically said "don't let the door hit you on the way out."

The apparent present strategy of delaying things doesn't look like it's going to work....

The EU is a macroeconomic disaster. It was formed at the height of the neoliberal influence on economic policy. It incorporates all of the poor economic ideas of that philosophy, the retreat from social democracy, sacrifice of wages to increased profits, and the increasing income and the wealth inequality and the reduction in aggregate demand and economic growth that results.

A completed Article 50 exit by the UK won't change this but will cement the dominance of the Germans over the union, and the Germans' peculiar brand of moralizing neoliberalism that gave us not only the housing crisis and subsequent recession but also the brain dead, inhuman, self-defeating, non-solution to the Greek and the other PIIGS' public and private debt problems.

There is no limit to the German hubris that would allow them to see an UK exit as anything but an advantage to the EU. This is not a surprise.

 

[whichphilosophy]

What source of income? The UK pays £35,000,000 per day to the EU It also buys more from the EU than it sells to it. We don't want criminal gangs pouring in from some parts of Europe because there are no laws against them entering the UK even if they have been arrested there.

See now I've heard that this figure is absolute bollocks. And even Boris is back tracking.

There is some money coming back in farming subsidies, but the figure is still £35 million per day. It only sounds like 50 pence per person in the population but it is still a lot of money. This still ends up with 24,657,534 per day after farming subsidies.

Government figures are here.

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Therefore the proposed £100 million for the NHS per week would be feasible as a maximum addition

 

[whichphilosophy]

Merkel and Hollande have just held a joint news conference. I speak both German and French and they basically said "don't let the door hit you on the way out."

The apparent present strategy of delaying things doesn't look like it's going to work....

They do have to be tough because they don't wanting this leaving business to become a thing. If they take a firm and hard line against England, it will discourage other members from wanting to get out based on a poor understanding of the consequences.

I am sure empires in the past have tried to do this. If it refuses to trade with Britain it is cutting its nose off to spite its face. Britain is a major purchaser from the Eu and sells less to it than it purchases from it. It has a lot of markets with China and the US, but also greater potential with Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries. Perhaps since the Eu is run by unelected committees, and the banks control the economies of the poorer members a 'firm line' would be more possible in the short term. However this could well backfire within the EU.

After Merkel wouldn't like to be called the leader of the Fourth Reich or something like that.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

They do have to be tough because they don't wanting this leaving business to become a thing. If they take a firm and hard line against England, it will discourage other members from wanting to get out based on a poor understanding of the consequences.

I am sure empires in the past have tried to do this. If it refuses to trade with Britain it is cutting its nose off to spite its face. Britain is a major purchaser from the Eu and sells less to it than it purchases from it. It has a lot of markets with China and the US, but also greater potential with Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries. Perhaps since the Eu is run by unelected committees, and the banks control the economies of the poorer members a 'firm line' would be more possible in the short term. However this could well backfire within the EU.

After Merkel wouldn't like to be called the leader of the Fourth Reich or something like that.

But I don't see how it would be in the EU's interest to give Britain any better of a deal than they already had in the EU, minus any kind of say in how things get run. German banks are already salivating over all the accounts held in London banks for EU customers and Britain isn't going to get any kind of preferential access to their markets without corresponding concessions for being allowed that access.

 

[bilby]

I detect a wee bit of hypocrisy here with the call for another referendum by the thwarted Bremainers. If the vote had been 52:48 in their favour they would not be claiming that it was not a decisive enough margin.

Sour grapes never taste nice.

Perhaps not; But the Brexiters would. Indeed, Farage made a play for that well in advance of the vote, when it looked like his side would lose.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017 - May 16, 2016

Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Losers demanding a new ballot is perhaps something to be dismissed as 'sour grapes'; but when the winners are on record as endorsing their arguments, it seems rather less unreasonable.

 

[bilby]

If the UK really intends to get out of the EU they'd best get on with it. And if the UK really intends to remain in the EU despite the vote they'd best make that crystal clear as soon as possible.

The result of the vote has weakened Britain's position in the EU regardless of whether Britain has officially invoked Article 50. The other members of the EU are going to marginalize the UK as much as possible. I note that the UK's most senior official (Jonathan Hill, who held the financial services portfolio, one of particular interest to the UK) has resigned. Anybody want to bet that he will be replaced by another Brit?

Merkel and Hollande have just held a joint news conference. I speak both German and French and they basically said "don't let the door hit you on the way out."

The apparent present strategy of delaying things doesn't look like it's going to work....

Merkel and Hollande no more have the authority to impose Article 50 on the UK than Farage does.

And their stance likely makes it LESS likely that UK.gov will rush for the exit - negotiations with an actively unfriendly EU are even less palatable than negotiations with an indifferent EU.

 

[bilby]

What source of income? The UK pays £35,000,000 per day to the EU It also buys more from the EU than it sells to it. We don't want criminal gangs pouring in from some parts of Europe because there are no laws against them entering the UK even if they have been arrested there.

See now I've heard that this figure is absolute bollocks. And even Boris is back tracking.

Yes; the figures presented by the Brexit camp prior to the vote are a fine example of orchilalia.

 

[repoman]

Merkel and Hollande have just held a joint news conference. I speak both German and French and they basically said "don't let the door hit you on the way out."

The apparent present strategy of delaying things doesn't look like it's going to work....

Merkel and Hollande no more have the authority to impose Article 50 on the UK than Farage does.

And their stance likely makes it LESS likely that UK.gov will rush for the exit - negotiations with an actively unfriendly EU are even less palatable than negotiations with an indifferent EU.

It is a feint. There goal is to keep the UK in while seeming to want it out.

 

[repoman]

I stole this quote, but it was worth it:

Remember when economic globalization and neoliberal free trade were things leftists were supposed to be against?

 

[whichphilosophy]

I am sure empires in the past have tried to do this. If it refuses to trade with Britain it is cutting its nose off to spite its face. Britain is a major purchaser from the Eu and sells less to it than it purchases from it. It has a lot of markets with China and the US, but also greater potential with Australia, New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries. Perhaps since the Eu is run by unelected committees, and the banks control the economies of the poorer members a 'firm line' would be more possible in the short term. However this could well backfire within the EU.

After Merkel wouldn't like to be called the leader of the Fourth Reich or something like that.

But I don't see how it would be in the EU's interest to give Britain any better of a deal than they already had in the EU, minus any kind of say in how things get run. German banks are already salivating over all the accounts held in London banks for EU customers and Britain isn't going to get any kind of preferential access to their markets without corresponding concessions for being allowed that access.

I don't think the UK needs or wants preferential treatment. The best way is a sensible withdrawal where both will still be allies and trade with each other. The UK has other trading partners and will also expand again to its commonwealth base.

 

[angelo]

It may be in Australia's interest that Brexit has occurred. It means more trade with the "colonies."

 

[whichphilosophy]

It may be in Australia's interest that Brexit has occurred. It means more trade with the "colonies."

Britain can purchase Australian beef, lamb, and dairy products iron ore, gold, coal, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, which it did before the EU. Likewise it can do the same with NZ. It may also purchase some machinery and transport equipment though there is a lot of competition from other countries.

Britain could import some goods from India and export illegal Indians back to India.

 

[jonatha]

It may be in Australia's interest that Brexit has occurred. It means more trade with the "colonies."

Britain can purchase Australian beef, lamb, and dairy products iron ore, gold, coal, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, which it did before the EU. Likewise it can do the same with NZ. It may also purchase some machinery and transport equipment though there is a lot of competition from other countries.

Britain could import some goods from India and export illegal Indians back to India.

Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics show that in 2015 Australia was #19 in the UK's top 50 export markets (beating out several EU nations, including Poland, Norway, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Austria, Finland, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, and Greece). New Zealand came in at #45. The two nations were #37 and #48, respectively, in the list of top 50 import sources.

Y'all are gonna have to sell the Aussies and Kiwis a lot of Twinings to make up for decreased sales to your #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #9, and #16 export markets, all of which are in the EU.

 

[Speakpigeon]

A petition calling for the referendum to be voted on a second time has attracted over three million signatures, roughly three times the winning margin in the election.

Apparenttly, some remainers also had a change of heart so that overall the majority for Brexit would only be reduced by something like half a million votes, not enough to change the result.

So will the UK actually leave the EU, or will the British government and/or the British people manage to ignore the result of the referendum?

I don't see how the (future) government could delay notifying the EU the UK is leaving before the end of this year. Unless the mood in the country does swing hard towards remaining, somehow. Boris looked so pathetic for his first speech after the publication of the results that maybe people are going to get really scared he is going to be their next Prime Minister.
EB

 

[C_Mucius_Scaevola]

Apparenttly, some remainers also had a change of heart so that overall the majority for Brexit would only be reduced by something like half a million votes, not enough to change the result.

Add to that some of the 28% who didn't vote, and the result might well be overturned in a hypothetical second referendum. I'm sure many of them wouldn't be quite so complacent in that case, having already seen the effects of Thursday's vote.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Britain can purchase Australian beef, lamb, and dairy products iron ore, gold, coal, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, which it did before the EU. Likewise it can do the same with NZ. It may also purchase some machinery and transport equipment though there is a lot of competition from other countries.

Britain could import some goods from India and export illegal Indians back to India.

Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics show that in 2015 Australia was #19 in the UK's top 50 export markets (beating out several EU nations, including Poland, Norway, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Austria, Finland, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, and Greece). New Zealand came in at #45. The two nations were #37 and #48, respectively, in the list of top 50 import sources.

Y'all are gonna have to sell the Aussies and Kiwis a lot of Twinings to make up for decreased sales to your #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #9, and #16 export markets, all of which are in the EU.

The UK however purchases a lot more from the UK. The UK can purchase dairy products from Australia and NZ much cheaper than from Europe. Before the common market brands such as Anchor (NZ) butter were the most popular and cheapest for instance.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparenttly, some remainers also had a change of heart so that overall the majority for Brexit would only be reduced by something like half a million votes, not enough to change the result.

Add to that some of the 28% who didn't vote, and the result might well be overturned in a hypothetical second referendum. I'm sure many of them wouldn't be quite so complacent in that case, having already seen the effects of Thursday's vote.

It would be very Monty Python to count a no vote as a yes vote.

 

[C_Mucius_Scaevola]

Apparenttly, some remainers also had a change of heart so that overall the majority for Brexit would only be reduced by something like half a million votes, not enough to change the result.

Add to that some of the 28% who didn't vote, and the result might well be overturned in a hypothetical second referendum. I'm sure many of them wouldn't be quite so complacent in that case, having already seen the effects of Thursday's vote.

It would be very Monty Python to count a no vote as a yes vote.

I have no idea what you mean by that, or how it refers to anything in my post.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Apparenttly, some remainers also had a change of heart so that overall the majority for Brexit would only be reduced by something like half a million votes, not enough to change the result.

Add to that some of the 28% who didn't vote, and the result might well be overturned in a hypothetical second referendum. I'm sure many of them wouldn't be quite so complacent in that case, having already seen the effects of Thursday's vote.

It would be very Monty Python to count a no vote as a yes vote.

I have no idea what you mean by that, or how it refers to anything in my post.

We can't really speculate on what those who did not vote would have voted for. I am pleasantly surprised at the leave vote. Holland next?