Re: Kim Potter - What happens when good people no longer go into law enforcement?

[Loren Pechtel]

Like how victimized and entitled many right-wingers feel?

You think the high excess homicide rate is due to right-wingers? The ones in Chicago who put a noose on Smolett’s neck?

The high homicide rate is due to drugs. Why do you think that's left wing?

So there were no drugs before May 2020?

There's been a high homicide rate for a long time. Of course it went up--supply chain problems aren't confined to legal markets.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Does the lead-crime hypothesis explain homicide? Leaded gasoline was standard globally until the 1980s. Algeria didn't end leaded gasoline use until 2021. Yet, Algeria's homicide rate is substantially lower than the US.

How much gasoline did Algeria use? While I have never been in Algeria I have been in many places in Africa--and the traffic levels are a very small fraction of what we would see in the US from the same number of people. Driving along the main road most days we didn't see other vehicles. (This is a road bad enough that we are talking tens of miles per day.)

(And if you don't like the lead-crime theory we are pretty much left with the competing hypothesis: abortion.)

 

[lpetrich]

Gasoline consumption per capita around the world | GlobalPetrolPrices.com for 2016.

The US is the champion at 4.39 liters per capita per day.

Canada is at 3.62, Australia is at 2.40, and New Zealand is at 1.91, and European countries are at roughly 0.5 - 1 l/c/d.

Algeria is way down at 0.35, a little less than 1/12 the US's consumption.

 

[TomC]

(And if you don't like the lead-crime theory we are pretty much left with the competing hypothesis: abortion.)

I sincerely doubt that it's about any two factors, much less just one.

Probably a raft of different, subtle, factors are involved. Better "early intervention and diversion" strategies. Economic factors. Etc. Etc.
Lots of different improvements to how we as a society deal with these things came together.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

(And if you don't like the lead-crime theory we are pretty much left with the competing hypothesis: abortion.)

I sincerely doubt that it's about any two factors, much less just one.

Probably a raft of different, subtle, factors are involved. Better "early intervention and diversion" strategies. Economic factors. Etc. Etc.
Lots of different improvements to how we as a society deal with these things came together.
Tom

We have two widespread changes to society over a fairly narrow window.

We greatly cut lead exposure and we made abortion available to the poor. There isn't really anything else big enough.

 

[funinspace]

(And if you don't like the lead-crime theory we are pretty much left with the competing hypothesis: abortion.)

I sincerely doubt that it's about any two factors, much less just one.

Probably a raft of different, subtle, factors are involved. Better "early intervention and diversion" strategies. Economic factors. Etc. Etc.
Lots of different improvements to how we as a society deal with these things came together.
Tom

We have two widespread changes to society over a fairly narrow window.

We greatly cut lead exposure and we made abortion available to the poor. There isn't really anything else big enough.

Yeah, there is. Males ages 15-25 ish tend to commit far more violent crimes, and the boomers surged from the late 1940's to the late 1950's, giving the US more per capita young male adults 20 years later... But I think that lead is a reasonable factor as well.

Baby boomers - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Trausti]

(And if you don't like the lead-crime theory we are pretty much left with the competing hypothesis: abortion.)

The lead hypothesis has no explanatory power for the post-May 2020 homicide surge.