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Republicans 2020

lpetrich

lpetrich

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I have decided to create a companion thread for Democrats 2020. I first note Republican Coronation 2020? about RNC to push undivided support for Trump reelection, state leaders consider canceling caucuses - ABC News

But some Republican politicians have shown some interest in challenging President Trump (pResident tRump?). Last month, former Massachusetts governor William Weld entered the race, running as a moderate. Bill Weld, Larry Hogan, John Kasich opening for Trump challenge in New Hampshire - Washington Times
Fergus Cullen, a GOP fixture in New Hampshire politics, sent out 150 invites to his house party for Bill Weld, the first Republican to announce a primary challenge to President Trump.

No fan of the president, Mr. Cullen didn’t go out of his way to invite die-hard Trump supporters, and some simply couldn’t make it. But more than 60 people showed up and — most notably — only three declined with some version of “Thanks, but I’m with Trump.”
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John Kasich Warns That Russia Is Still Meddling in U.S. Elections, but ‘Nobody Is Doing Anything About It’

Larry Hogan derides Trump as ‘dear leader’ - POLITICO

Bob Corker: Primary challenger for Trump would be ‘good thing for our country’ - POLITICO
However,
Corker: 'I just don't' see path to challenge Trump in 2020 | TheHill
"I think for someone to undertake that, they have to feel there's at least somewhat of an opportunity to actually be elected," Corker, a fierce critic of Trump's, told reporters after a speech at the Nashville Rotary Club, according to The Times Free Press. "I see no point in just doing it to [run], you know, I just don't."

...
Corker repeatedly criticized Trump during the first two years of his presidency, and occasionally sparred with the president over their differences. Corker once referred to the White House as an "adult day care center."
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Some possible candidates have stated that they will not run, like Mitt Romney and Jeff Flake.
 
It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
 
Patooka said:
It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
Click to expand...
Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
  • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
  • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
  • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
  • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
  • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
  • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
  • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
  • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
  • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won
  • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
  • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%
So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.
 
lpetrich said:
Patooka said:
It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
Click to expand...
Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
  • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
  • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
  • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
  • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
  • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
  • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
  • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
  • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
  • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won
  • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
  • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%
So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.
Click to expand...

Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.
 
Elixir said:
Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.
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True, but such people would want a big victory in the primaries also.

More generally, one has to watch out for the difference between correlation and causation. If A and B is correlated, it is only sometimes true that A causes B. Likewise, it is sometimes true that B causes A, sometimes true that A and B have a cause separate from them, and sometimes true that that correlation is a coincidence.

I suspect that the correlation here is a case of external causation: how strongly the president is supported more generally.

But the attempts to cancel caucuses suggests that the Trumpies may want to hide poor support for their hero.
 
Ex-Kasich adviser backs out of $350G Russia lobbying gig, vows 'laser focus' against Trump in 2020 | Fox News
Gov. John Kasich 'seriously look at' running for president in 2020, says dysfunction in Washington is 'very disturbing'

The Ohio governor speaks out on 'Fox News Sunday' on his timeline for making a decision to challenge President Trump.

A former campaign adviser for John Kasich said Thursday that he’s backing out of a $350,000 contract to lobby against sanctions on behalf of a Russian state-owned nuclear energy company, vowing instead to put a "laser focus" on helping prevent President Trump's re-election.
Click to expand...
 
lpetrich said:
I suspect that the correlation here is a case of external causation: how strongly the president is supported more generally.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The Russian influence is brought to bear directly on that "external" factor. Strong support in the form of irrational fervor is a product of the effort, and that fervor converts to turnout.
 
seyorni said:
Trump need only start a war. Wartime presidents always get re-elected.
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He seems to be thinking along those lines with Iran. As the investigations close in, I fear that it is more likely he will see this as the ultimate distraction.
 
I remember when the right wing dismissed Bill Clinton's wars as "wag the dog" distractions. That's after a movie called "Wag the Dog" where a US President starts a war to distract everybody from his troubles.
 
The End of the Republican Trump Resistance - The Atlantic - "The last two serious prospective primary challengers to the president have dropped out, even as an appetite remains for a rival among Republican voters."
If you’re looking for a date to chisel on the gravestone of the Republican resistance to President Donald Trump, June 1, 2019, will work nicely.

That’s the day that Maryland Governor Larry Hogan told The Washington Post, “I’m not going to be a candidate for president in 2020.” The day before, former Ohio Governor John Kasich also closed the door, which was only very slightly ajar, on his own 2020 run. “There is no path right now for me. I don’t see a way to get there,” Kasich said on CNN. “Maybe somebody wants to run and make a statement, and that’s fine, but I’ve never gotten involved in a political race where I didn’t think I could win.”
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That leaves Bill Weld.
 
Republicans Unveil Donald Trump Statue As 2020 Election Campaign Begins, Praise President's 'Accountability and Transparency'
Republican Party supporters in Oklahoma marked the official start of President Donald Trump's 2020 election campaign by unveiling a statue of the divisive leader, named "The President Who Loved America."

...
But the tone of Trump's 2020 launch was somewhat less positive. The president's speech at his rally in Orlando, Florida, was peppered with misinformation about his Democratic opponents, vilification of the media and attacks former special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
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Bill Weld is barely making any news. One of the most recent articles on his candidacy: Trump challenger Weld renews calls for his resignation after comments on political opponent | TheHill

Presidential candidates, 2020 - Ballotpedia -- all 25 Democratic candidates and 2 Republican ones.  2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and  2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
 
lpetrich said:
Republicans Unveil Donald Trump Statue As 2020 Election Campaign Begins, Praise President's 'Accountability and Transparency'
Republican Party supporters in Oklahoma marked the official start of President Donald Trump's 2020 election campaign by unveiling a statue of the divisive leader, named "The President Who Loved America."

...
But the tone of Trump's 2020 launch was somewhat less positive. The president's speech at his rally in Orlando, Florida, was peppered with misinformation about his Democratic opponents, vilification of the media and attacks former special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Click to expand...

Bill Weld is barely making any news. One of the most recent articles on his candidacy: Trump challenger Weld renews calls for his resignation after comments on political opponent | TheHill

Presidential candidates, 2020 - Ballotpedia -- all 25 Democratic candidates and 2 Republican ones.  2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and  2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
Click to expand...

Republicans don't want to upset the Emperor, and Democrats don't want to have to run against a possibly rational person, so... Weld shall be ignored.
(Or some might say "All's well that ends Weld.")
 
Its fairly common. Those who have trouble with the challenger are generally defeated. Ford, Carter, and Bush 1 were all primaried and had difficulty defeating them.

I don't think any sitting president has ever lost the primary since the 19th century. I'm not even sure if it happened then, as things were different back then when it came to how nominations were made.
 
Presidents who ran for re-election and what challengers in their party they had when doing so.

1912: William Howard Taft: Theodore Roosevelt, Robert M. La Follette. Prim pop: 34.6%, conv dels: 53%, conv vote: 77%. He loses, though TR became a third-party spoiler
1916: Woodrow Wilson: (none). He wins.
1924: Calvin Coolidge: Hiram Johnson, Robert M. La Follette. Conv vote: 96%. He wins.
1932: Herbert Hoover: John J. Blaine, Joseph I. France, James Wolcott Wadsworth, Jr. Conv vote: 98.0%. He loses.
1936: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: Henry Skillman Breckinridge. Conv vote: 100%. He wins.
1940: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: John Nance Gardner, James Farley. Conv vote: 87%. He wins.
1944: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: (Harry Byrd). Conv vote: 92%. He wins.
1956: Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower: (none). He wins.
1964: Lyndon Baines Johnson: Pat Brown, George Wallace, Sam Yorty. Prim pop: 31%, conv vote: 100%. He wins.
1972: Richard Milhous Nixon: Pete McCloskey, John Ashbrook. Prim pop: 92%, prim dels: 99.92%, conv vote: 99.92%. He wins.
1976: Gerald Rudolph Ford: Ronald Reagan. Prim pop: 53.3%, conv vote: 52.6%. He loses.
1980: Jimmy Carter: Teddy Kennedy, Jerry Brown, Cliff Finch. Prim pop: 54.75%, conv vote: 64.04%. He loses.
1984: Ronald Wilson Reagan: Harold Stassen, Ben Fernandez. Prim pop: 99.63%, conv vote: 99.91%. He wins.
1992: George Herbert Walker Bush: Pat Buchanan, David Duke, Pat Paulsen, Harold Stassen, Jack Fellure. Prim pop: 74.54%, conv vote: 99.13%. He loses.
1996: William Jefferson Clinton: Lyndon LaRouche. Prim pop: 89.0%, conv vote: 99.72%. He wins.
2004: George Walker Bush: (none). He wins.
2012: Barack Hussein Obama: (none). He wins.
(Unpledged delegates ignored in vote counts)

Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter, George Bush I, and William Taft had sizable primary challenges, and they all lost. All the winners won nearly 100% in the primaries and conventions, with the exception of LBJ. Herbert Hoover won big in the convention, but nevertheless lost in the general election.
 
Elixir said:
lpetrich said:
Patooka said:
It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
Click to expand...
Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
  • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
  • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
  • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
  • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
  • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
  • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
  • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
  • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
  • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won
  • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
  • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%
So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.
Click to expand...

Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.
Click to expand...

Carter did--Iran in collusion with the Repugs.
 
Republican Presidential Candidates for 2020

Will John Kasich challenge Trump for the nomination for what would be Trump's second run in the general and second presidential term?

Will Ted Cuz?

Will anybody else? Will there be a challenge to Trump or will he sail through straight to the general?
 
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