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Republicans 2020

Mark Sanford says he is launching primary challenge against Trump - CNNPolitics
In a campaign-style video released last month, Sanford warned of "a big storm coming" if the issues of debt, the deficit or government spending aren't prioritized.

"I just got through watching two Democratic debates that offered little more than a long laundry list of new political promises that we can't afford," Sanford says. "I listen to the President, who rules out action on the very things that drive our debt and spending."

America, he added, is "in the most precarious financial position" and "not dealing with it could crush our economy, it could wipe out whatever we've saved, it could even destroy our republic."
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At least he's willing to criticize a Republican here.

Trump takes aim at Mark Sanford, his newest GOP challenger - POLITICO
“When the former Governor of the Great State of South Carolina, @MarkSanford, was reported missing, only to then say he was away hiking on the Appalachian Trail, then was found in Argentina with his Flaming Dancer friend, it sounded like his political career was over,” Trump tweeted.

“It was, but then he ran for Congress and won, only to lose his re-elect after I Tweeted my endorsement, on Election Day, for his opponent,” he continued, alluding to his support for Sanford's GOP primary challenger, who wound up losing the Congressional seat to Democrat Joe Cunningham. “But now take heart, he is back, and running for President of the United States. The Three Stooges, all badly failed candidates, will give it a go!”
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What's his idea of "badly failed"? Is he capable of being anything more than a jerk?
 
Bill Weld:
Yahoo Finance on Twitter: "Highlight: "I hope the Republicans are going to remove this guy," @GovBillWeld says about Trump. "It could be a valuable precedent against the day when we might have another Nero or dictator come along and try to take away our liberties as a country." [url]https://t.co/Jb7k9twFHf https://t.co/fzy1OdLb2W" / Twitter[/url]
Weld hoped that would change and claimed Senate Republicans need to step in to stop Trump from “buying the election.”

“I hope the Republicans are going to remove this guy," Weld said. “That’s our insurance policy, among other things, against him spending a billion dollars on Facebook ads and essentially buying the election.”
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In effect, outshouting the Democrats. Also telling lies, something that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg seems reluctant to stop.

Bill Weld: Trump faces higher risk of removal if senators go to secret ballot | US news | The Guardian
Weld said: “The one thing that strikes me most vividly is political and it’s that the president is hanging the members of his own party out to dry in forcing them to go through the draining, even exhausting effort of defending him.

“The Republicans in the Senate were defending Nixon up until the day when the tapes became public and then two days later he had 0% in the Senate. Dick Nixon had won 49 states not so long before that.”

He added: “My sense more broadly, being on the hustings, is everyone’s exhausted by Trump. They’re very tired and so they really don’t want to be forced to wallow in Trump. They’d rather think about healthcare and other issues that have more to do with their daily lives.”
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Lots of Republicans say privately that they consider Trump to be very bad, but they are reluctant to say so in public, out of fear of angering the Trumpies.

Sort of like Ocasio-Cortez: 'I want to see every Republican go on the record and knowingly vote against impeachment' | TheHill
"I want to see every Republican go on the record and knowingly vote against impeachment of this president, knowing his corruption, having it on the record so that they can have that stain on their careers for the rest of their lives," Ocasio-Cortez said.

"It is beyond time, and we have to end this lawlessness and corruption coming out of the White House," she said.
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That was before the Ukraine issue came up, IIRC.

Bill Weld, GOP challenger: 'I'm with Biden in a heartbeat' over Trump - Washington Times
“He’s a lunch-pail Democrat,” he said of Mr. Biden. “He’s a good guy. He’s a centrist, and Trump is not going to be able to play the socialism card against him.”

Mr. Weld declared that he would never vote for Mr. Trump “under any circumstances” and would even consider supporting far-left candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren it came down to it.

“I suppose I’d rather have her, with a couple of modifications in her platform,” he said.
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Joe Walsh:
Republican 2020 presidential candidate Joe Walsh says Americans who listen to Fox News and conservative radio are being 'lied to and manipulated every day' - CNN
"This is an absolute shame and I think you've got to call it out for what it is," Walsh told CNN's Brian Stelter on "Reliable Sources" Sunday. "The Americans who listen to Fox News and conservative talk radio are being lied to and manipulated every day when it comes to impeachment."

...
"The vast majority of the American people understand that when it comes to Ukraine, [Trump] did something wrong,' Walsh said. "But those people who listen to the opinion shows on Fox and those people who listen to my former world, conservative talk radio, have no clue because they're being told every day: 'He's done nothing wrong' ... It's dangerous."
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Joe Walsh, Mark Sanford, Bill Weld: GOP candidates debate at Politicon
"Post-Trump, it's going to take extraordinary steps to try and unify this country," Walsh said. "Maybe even a Republican presidential nominee and a Democrat vice presidential candidate, along with them."
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Mark Sanford:
Former SC governor Mark Sanford moving his presidential operation to New Hampshire | Palmetto Politics | postandcourier.com
Since announcing his bid in September as one of three Republicans challenging President Donald Trump, Sanford has made visits to early voting states as well as completing a week-long 3,500-mile, 11 state road trip dubbed “Kids, We’re Broke and We Don’t Even Know It.”
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Then this fun bit:

God and the Don - STATE Magazine - CNN.com
Trump is unique among modern American presidents for his seeming lack of deep religious orientation. He doesn't have a hometown church, and a months-long examination of the congregations he had ties to throughout his life found no evidence that Trump put down permanent roots in any of them. Congregants at his childhood church in Queens say Trump might not be welcome there today. The midtown Manhattan church he attended later in life has denied that he is a member there, and the son of its famous pastor, Norman Vincent Peale, has denounced Trump.

To Johnston, who along with O'Connor sought the meeting with Trump, his brief encounter with the incoming president underscored Trump's tenuous attachment to organized religion and his Christian upbringing.

...
Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks pushed back on the suggestion that the President appears to lack profound religious convictions, saying in an email: "The President is a deeply faithful person." Hicks did not elaborate, other than to note that Trump is "affiliated" with Bethesda-by-the-Sea church.
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Yet the Religious Right adores him. I think that it is because of their authoritarianism. It primes them to love forceful leaders that seem to support them, no matter how odious such leaders otherwise are.
 
Ex-GOP Congressman Says Trump's 'Increasingly Erratic Behavior' Has Lost Republicans the Suburbs

In John Dent's home state of Pennsylvania, Republicans had done well in both the suburbs and rural areas. Though the GOP recently advanced in six county governments in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the state, it lost big in some much more populated areas.
Major losses in Bucks, Chester and Delaware counties contributed to a "widening circle" of blue that's beginning to encroach on rural and suburban areas that were the sole domain of Republicans. Dent blames the behavior of the president in office, which he calls erratic, and pointed to Trump's high unfavorability rating to prove his statement.

Dent says, "2020 could be another terrible Republican year given President Trump's high unfavorability ratings that are driven by his increasingly erratic behavior and misconduct in office." He also called the party's policies "too nativist and socially intolerant."

"If the Republican Party ever hopes to reclaim lost territory in the suburbs and elsewhere, it can start by rejecting isolationism and protectionism, advocating constructive international engagement by reengaging with traditional allies and defending the American-led international order, embracing diversity and inclusion, and striving to become more socially sensible."
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But will Trump and his strategists pay any attention? Given how much Trump likes to congratulate himself, I doubt it.
 
lpetrich said:
Ex-GOP Congressman Says Trump's 'Increasingly Erratic Behavior' Has Lost Republicans the Suburbs

In John Dent's home state of Pennsylvania, Republicans had done well in both the suburbs and rural areas. Though the GOP recently advanced in six county governments in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the state, it lost big in some much more populated areas.
Major losses in Bucks, Chester and Delaware counties contributed to a "widening circle" of blue that's beginning to encroach on rural and suburban areas that were the sole domain of Republicans. Dent blames the behavior of the president in office, which he calls erratic, and pointed to Trump's high unfavorability rating to prove his statement.

Dent says, "2020 could be another terrible Republican year given President Trump's high unfavorability ratings that are driven by his increasingly erratic behavior and misconduct in office." He also called the party's policies "too nativist and socially intolerant."

"If the Republican Party ever hopes to reclaim lost territory in the suburbs and elsewhere, it can start by rejecting isolationism and protectionism, advocating constructive international engagement by reengaging with traditional allies and defending the American-led international order, embracing diversity and inclusion, and striving to become more socially sensible."
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But will Trump and his strategists pay any attention? Given how much Trump likes to congratulate himself, I doubt it.
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Well, to Trump's credit... his idiotic, amoral, unprofessional behavior has gotten him this far.
 
It is very uncommon for a meaningful primary challenge to an incumbent to occur. Most of those primary challengers aren't meaningful. The last time I saw a significant primary challenge to an incumbent in a presidential election was in 1980. Some people blame Ted Kennedy for Ronald Reagan's win in the general election.
 
Source, Quora forum.
Is there any doubt that Donald J. Trump will lose the next election in 2020?
Mike Dorociak
Mike Dorociak, Proud to be an American
Answered Oct 25
Yeah, I doubt that. Big time.

Let’s just start with a simple surface analysis. Here is a map of the states Trump is all but guaranteed to win:


Assuming the United States doesn’t enter into a second Great Depression between now and the 2020 election, I think Trump can count on carrying at least 164 electoral votes right off the bat.

Now let’s move onto states Trump is either likely or very likely to win in 2020. On my list (with the margins by which Trump won in 2016) are:

Iowa (+9.6%)
Ohio (+8.6%)
Georgia (+5.7%)
Of these three states, Georgia is the most competitive, however, all of these states fall outside the generally accepted 5% margin to be considered toss-up states. While Georgia may be moving towards purple state status, I believe it will remain in Republican hands for at least the foreseeable future. As for Iowa and Ohio, both states have been moving further (but not completely) into the Republicans’ camp these past few years.

Now let’s look at states that will likely lean Republican in 2020:

Arizona (+4.1%)
North Carolina (+3.8%)
Arizona is another one of those states that has been trending towards purple state status recently. With Kyrsten Sinema‘s (D) narrow victory in Arizona’s 2018 Senate race, a Republican victory is not entirely assured in 2020. However, with Trump’s strong economic numbers and the Democrats’ leftward surge, the Democratic Party will likely have trouble picking up moderate votes, which bodes well for the Trump campaign.

North Carolina went to Trump by a fairly comfortable margin in 2016 and I see no reason why this will change. Much like in Arizona, I believe the Democrats’ progressive agenda coupled with Trump’s strong economy will be enough to push Trump to victory. I should also mention that the Republicans won both special congressional elections a little over a month ago. Overall, there seems to be more positive news than negative for Trump in North Carolina.

Now, after we total up all of Trump’s new victories, we arrive at this map:


Right now, Trump only needs 40 more electoral votes to win a second term. That’s two or three states at most. There certainly is opportunity for Trump to win that and then some. Here’s a list of other states that are in play for Trump:

Florida (+1.3%)
Pennsylvania (+1.2%)
Wisconsin (+1.0%)
Michigan (+0.3%)
New Hampshire (-0.4%)
Minnesota (-1.5%)
Nevada (-2.4%)
Maine (-2.7%)
Of those states above, I believe that Florida and Pennsylvania are the most likely to stick with Trump in 2020.

The Republicans gave an impressive effort in Florida during 2018 midterm elections, especially in the midst of the supposed “blue wave”. They retained the governor’s mansion and picked up the state’s second Senate seat. There wasn’t much positive news for Florida Democrats in 2018.

As for Pennsylvania, I think Trump has a strong chance here too. Pennsylvania has hit record levels of employment under Trump while wages continue to rise. Trump’s tax breaks don’t hurt either as the average Pennsylvania tax payer saved nearly $1,500 on federal taxes in 2018. Couple this with the Democrats’ progressive agenda and I can certainly envision blue-collar and middle-class Pennsylvania voters sticking with Trump in 2020.

Now, if Trump can carry Florida and Pennsylvania he will win the 2020 election.


I happen to think he will carry Wisconsin, and possibly even Michigan and Minnesota too, for many of the same reasons that I predict he will carry Pennsylvania.

If the economy continues its positive run into 2020 and the Democrats don’t get their sh*t together, I don’t see why New Hampshire, Nevada and Maine wouldn’t be in play either.

As we can see, Trump isn’t facing as much of an uphill battle as some have prematurely assumed. He is an incumbent with a strong economy and a huge (yuuuuge) war chest. If there should be anyone doubting the outcome of next election it is the Democrats.

But as with all things, time will tell.

Until then, stay tuned!
 
angelo said:
Source, Quora forum.
Is there any doubt that Donald J. Trump will lose the next election in 2020?
Mike Dorociak
Mike Dorociak, Proud to be an American
Answered Oct 25
Yeah, I doubt that. Big time.

Let’s just start with a simple surface analysis. Here is a map of the states Trump is all but guaranteed to win:


Assuming the United States doesn’t enter into a second Great Depression between now and the 2020 election, I think Trump can count on carrying at least 164 electoral votes right off the bat.
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163. The bonus Nebraska EV will be available with Democrat turnout in the district.

Now let’s move onto states Trump is either likely or very likely to win in 2020. On my list (with the margins by which Trump won in 2016) are:

Iowa (+9.6%)
Ohio (+8.6%)
Georgia (+5.7%)
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It really doesn't matter, the only states that do matter are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.

Trump can win all the others, it doesn't matter without these states.

And based on how elections are going in PA, is seems unlikely Trump repeats. A high turnout amongst Democrats turns PA, MI, and WI blue, and the Dems are just too energized not to come out and vote. Virginia is now a blue state. This leaves us with Colorado (likely blue) and Nevada (probably blue).

Which again shows how important PA, MI, and WI are because even with Trump winning OH, FL, NC, and AZ... it isn't enough, not with Virginia becoming a blue state. Trump won with deflated turnout in PA, MI, and WI. More importantly... them factory jobs haven't come back. With almost no room to spare, Trump is in trouble. Yes, we've heard that before, but truly, there are issues he needs to address, that really are unaddressable in the three states he shocked the nation in winning.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
angelo said:
Source, Quora forum.
Is there any doubt that Donald J. Trump will lose the next election in 2020?
Mike Dorociak
Mike Dorociak, Proud to be an American
Answered Oct 25
Yeah, I doubt that. Big time.

Let’s just start with a simple surface analysis. Here is a map of the states Trump is all but guaranteed to win:


Assuming the United States doesn’t enter into a second Great Depression between now and the 2020 election, I think Trump can count on carrying at least 164 electoral votes right off the bat.
Click to expand...
163. The bonus Nebraska EV will be available with Democrat turnout in the district.

Now let’s move onto states Trump is either likely or very likely to win in 2020. On my list (with the margins by which Trump won in 2016) are:

Iowa (+9.6%)
Ohio (+8.6%)
Georgia (+5.7%)
Click to expand...
It really doesn't matter, the only states that do matter are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.

Trump can win all the others, it doesn't matter without these states.

And based on how elections are going in PA, is seems unlikely Trump repeats. A high turnout amongst Democrats turns PA, MI, and WI blue, and the Dems are just too energized not to come out and vote. Virginia is now a blue state. This leaves us with Colorado (likely blue) and Nevada (probably blue).

Which again shows how important PA, MI, and WI are because even with Trump winning OH, FL, NC, and AZ... it isn't enough, not with Virginia becoming a blue state. Trump won with deflated turnout in PA, MI, and WI. More importantly... them factory jobs haven't come back. With almost no room to spare, Trump is in trouble. Yes, we've heard that before, but truly, there are issues he needs to address, that really are unaddressable in the three states he shocked the nation in winning.
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Reminder: The election isn't tomorrow.
IMHO, the apparent state of the economy will decide it all. The apparent state. Trump's problem lies in the fact that he has already raided the coffers, forced the fed to bottom out interest rates and everything else that he has the power to do to make himself look good. I'm not a bit sure he can keep the economy looking good for another year.
 
https://priorities.org/memos/battleground-poll-trumps-suburban-problem/

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Roughly half of respondents across Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they live in the suburbs. Among this group, Trump’s favorability (40% favorable/ 56% unfavorable) and job approval (43% approve/ 57% disapprove) paint a bleak picture for the president. When just looking at suburban women, the problem becomes even worse. Trump’s favorability stands at 34% favorable, 61% unfavorable and his job approval is 38% approve, 62% disapprove.
...
Trump is reliant on a strong economy to balance out his horrendous favorability and approval numbers, but our survey found that there has been a continuation of the trend of voters reporting that they are less satisfied with the economic situation for themselves and their family. Since May, there has been an eight point drop in personal economic satisfaction across our battleground states. This decline has been most pronounced among voters in Pennsylvania (12 point drop), Florida (10 point drop), among white non-college women (13 point drop) and Republicans (13 point drop).
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A majority of voters (52%) across the battleground states now say that their income is falling behind the cost of living, with another 40% saying they are just staying even. These trends resulted in a plurality of battleground voters citing Trump’s handling of the economy as a reason to vote for someone other than Trump, marking the first time this year that our polling has shown this to be a liability for Trump. Trump can no longer cite the economy as a clear political strength.
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Doesn't look good for the orange pussy grabber. And his main "firewall" issue Trump is relying on, the economy, isn't really a positive for Trump in these important swing states. Nor can Trumpo rely on turnout to help him, as polls show nationwide, interest in the 2020 elections is at a high level, and not in Trumpo's favor. 2020 will be the year angry women voters doom the GOP as far as national politics is concerned.

And if indeed angry women vote the GOP out of control in Washington, what will the GOP do next? Drop the tea party shtick? Double down on that? Look for another Trump populist demagogue or crazy? Double down on their obstructionism? Can there be a reform faction arise to power in the GOP? Or will the GOP become resigned to being a mere regional political party, holding power on a state level if not on a national level?
 
It all remains to be seen doesn't it! A lot depends on who the Dems choose as their candidate. Sanders or Biden haven't got a chance in hell.
 
It's the economy, stupid! That's why Al Gore, vice president during the Clinton boom economy years that produced surpluses, simply walked away with the election. Poor old GW Bush never stood a chance against the Democrats. Not even Clinton's impeachment sex scandal put a dent into his chances. Just imagine how different things would have been if the economy had performed poorly under Clinton and handed the presidential election to the Republicans. But that just goes to show that the economy is a reliable predictor of who will win the presidential election every single time.
 
angelo said:
Unemployment rates now as compared to 2016 are the lowest in 50 years, all boding good news for the Trump.
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There's more to security and happiness than employment. Black unemployment was essentially zero in the American South of the early 1800s. They weren't happy.
Similarly, the current wave of unemployment is a consequence of borderline slave wages.
 
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