Bomb#20 said:
Yeah, I know it gets a bad rap, but I actually liked
I Will Fear No Evil.
I admit I wasn't familiar with it

, but it sounds like fun.
Bomb#20 said:
Well, the devil is as usual in the details. Dawkins is of course right about semantics and courtesy and they're men by some definitions and women by other definitions; but the thing is, people normally don't actually use any of the definitions they appeal to to justify their categorizations. Words like "man", "woman", "male" and "female" get their meaning from their reference rather than vice versa; what a normal person means is "One of those". So when the semantic decision of what definition to go with selects common usage, (which I take it you're aiming for since you treat it as a matter of probability rather than certainty), the question becomes whether a transwoman is "one of those", and "those" refers to the kinds of people users of the words had in mind when the language evolved and proto-English speakers took up using those names for those subsets of the population.
Yes, that is what I was aiming at: common usage. Dawkins mentioned two definitions, but neither of them matches common usage, either by meaning or even by referent - I'm not sure if by referent in our world, though I doubt it. It definitely doesn't match the referent necessarily, i.e., in all possible worlds.
Side issue: while "one of those" is in the case of the vast majority of words a culturally variable thing, in some cases it's a human thing. I mean, a word with a meaning of 'car' does not exist in all human cultures. But what about 'guilty', and so on?

I do not know that basic moral terms like 'bad monkey', or 'wrongful behavior', or 'guilty' are the only ones, though. Other candidates would be terms that track properties human ancestors instinctively cared about for a long time, long before language. It seems probable to me that when sufficiently complex language develops (as a species evolves smarter), there will be words terms tracking those properties. Candidates in addition to 'bad monkey', etc., would be 'ill monkey'...and perhaps 'female monkey', or something along those lines (where 'female' and 'male' would also be something complex, and certainly would not mean either of the things Dawkins said).
Now, there are some arguments that in some societies words with the meaning of 'woman' or 'man' did not exist. I am not an expert in that, so at this point I put some non-negligible weight on either possibility (i.e., culturally variable thing vs. human thing). Of course, data from actual usage also would weigh in on whether its a variable thing or a human thing. But the thing is that even conditioned to its being a culturally variable thing, I find the overall linguistic evidence to go against trans claims.
Bomb#20 said:
So is a transwoman "one of those"? Well, the devil is in the details -- it depends on an individual's characteristics. For example, there were undoubtedly some gender-dysphoric XY-people in the "those" that proto-English speakers had in mind when they called "those" people "men". And there were undoubtedly some androgen-insensitive XY-people in the "those" that proto-English speakers had in mind when they called "those" other people "women". But neither group of "those"s contained any XY-people who'd had a sex-change operation or puberty-blockers or estrogen treatments. Consequently, going by common usage, "transwomen are women" and "transwomen are men" are both overgeneralizations.
I was trying to capture some of that - perhaps not very well - with my "with some potential exceptions for abnormal sexual organs, etc.", but if I understand your point and evidence correctly, I do not see that as supporting a change in the meaning of the words. Rather, that seems to support that some people are neither men nor women - which I believe is probably true, though I'm not sure whether those cases are examples of this -, and further, that the words are not precise enough in some cases so that there is no fact of the matter as to whether some people are men or women or neither - which I also think is probably the case (also I'm not sure about these cases).
Yet, the question for most trans claims - as I understand them - is not that they turn into men or women after receiving treatment. Rather, the usual claims are that trans men were already men, etc. That seems not to be in line with the usage I observe in the wild, even among the Woke when they're not thinking about their religion. But for example, what do you make of the following scenario? (I'm not sure whether your point that gender dysphoria is not enough applies for present-day usage, or only traditional usage).
Set yyyy-<word> for the word <word> by the meaning in yyyy, without making assumptions as to whether they have changed.
It's 2018. Alice and Maria are both 1980-women, have normal sexual organs, etc. They both identify as lesbians and have no sexual interest in 1980-men. They get in a relationship, then by 2020 move together, etc. In 2021 Maria comes out as Mario and claims to be a 2021-men. If Mario is correct, is Alice mistaken in her belief that she is a 2021-lesbian? (maybe due to a failure to grasp the meaning of the word). Alice has not made any mistake about any of the properties of Mario she found attractive, or generally the properties she finds attractive in people and on the basis of which she reckons she is a 2021-lesbian. Those properties include traits that can be perceived by the senses, and are not mental traits. Do they involve mental properties too?
Maybe: not only would Alice not feel equally attracted to a doll, but also preferences involving sexual organs might play a role in her (common we assume) usage of the term 'lesbian'. And maybe - just maybe - if people swapped bodies like in the movies, Alice would find that a 1980-man stuck in a 1970-woman body unattractive because of that, even if she finds some of her properties attractive. And maybe - further just maybe -, that is part of what she would take into account when assessing whether she is a lesbian (by her own intuitive grasp of the word), at least if she were to entertain the possibility of people jumping bodies, or some kind of metamorphosis, etc.
However, it seems very probable to me that in a realistic scenario, mental traits like having had a preference for trucks over dolls when a kid or whatever other 1980-man-like mental properties Mario may have would
not be factored in when assessing whether Alice a lesbian (I might be mistaken, but at least that's how I have seen usage so far), either by Alice or by other people, when using the word intuitively, and even if they are aware of those mental properties of Mario. It seems to me that
if 2021-lesbian means something like 'a 2021-woman who feels sexually attracted people for having the properties that make a person a 2021-women, whereas she finds properties that make a person a 2021-men not sexually attractive', then most self-identified lesbians are mistaken about their being lesbians, and similarly, most self-identified straight men, etc., are mistaken about their orientation - and their mistake does not seem to involve any failure in assessing the properties of their own minds of the minds of others, but failing to grasp the meaning of the words. But that doesn't seem right, since usage determines meaning.
Granted, my approximation to the meaning of 'lesbian' above is not particularly good

, but my point here is that I haven't seen one that approaches usage and doesn't make usual trans claims (i.e., most) very probably false. And I surely do not think a 1980-woman should think maybe she's not a lesbian if, say, she found
this person attractive, without error about any of...their

properties (i.e., no hidden penis, etc., nor - perhaps - mind swapping, etc.). And the same for a 1980-man (am I bisexual? Well, if I am, I haven't seen any evidence of that, and I wouldn't count that as evidence

).
Sure, it might be that 2021-lesbian, 2021-straight man, 2021-gay man, etc. mean something related to 1980-women or 1980-men, whereas 2021-man, etc., mean something else. But that's one of the things: the classification of people between 1980-men, 1980-woman, and some rare remaining cases (and also some 'no fact of the matter' fuzziness somewhere) seems to be pretty good at mapping human sexual attraction. It would seem improbable that this classification were just abandoned, even when the Woke are trying to enforce a change - the Woke themselves seem to often go by common usage when not monitoring their own usage carefully.
Bomb#20 said:
Gender dysphoria is not enough to make you a woman; androgen-insensitivity is enough; and whether reassignment surgery is enough currently does not have an objective answer in common usage. So it remains a semantic question of what stipulative definitions people choose to apply; and they will choose not on any rationally defensible basis, but on the basis of gut feeling or political ideology or conformity to their peer group. Common usage's take on the question will be worked out gradually, as various cultures adjust their dialects to their new experience of having such people available to be included in the "those"s they find themselves talking about.
In the future, yes, I agree (well, maybe after genetic engineering if it's a human thing, but I'm assuming it's not).
But in the present, with respect to reassignment surgery, my impression is that it's not enough: e.g., if someone were to kidnap a non-trans person (no oddities in re sex or gender, either) and forcibly make the surgery, usage would say he or she is still a man or woman. So, it would have to be gender dysphoria + surgery (or + hormones) or something like that. But that would mean that the person was in the past a man (woman) and then stopped being so (by common usage).
I don't see social pressure going in that direction: social conservative activists generally will pressure people to deny that there was a change, Woke activists generally will pressure people to deny that there was a change (incurring contradiction often, but yielding to peer "correction"), non-Woke feminist activists will pressure people to deny that there was a change, and so on. Rather, it seems to me social pressure goes into either saying trans men are women before surgery and remain women after surgery, or that they are men before and remain men, and similarly for trans women, etc. (of course, the question of whether there is social pressure in that direction is different of course from whether common usage gives an answer for cases like GD+hormones+surgery, but pressure might have an influence in future usage).
Bomb#20 said:
Prediction is hard, especially about the future.
True.
