Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
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- Calvinistic Atheist
So anyway, I was pondering, just how many different things could happen in Cleveland this coming convention, when the Republicans come and shut every fucking thing down, even preventing shit from happening before it even starts. Trump has been given time to fill into the new persona of Trump 2.0. Unfortunately there were several bugs, and they are up to release 2.0.183, but it still is bugging out. The Republicans are stuck between a hard place and another hard place... a few large rocks are also falling and there are spikes coming from the ground. It isn't pretty. The Republicans can handle losing the Presidency as they have lost the popular vote all but one time since 1992. But they don't want to lose the two houses of Congress as well. In order to avoid that, they must determine whether Trump can't afford to run (not able to raise money) or kills the ticket (people vote all D's in protest of him). Trump has shown he has absolutely no restraint, so he is what he is, how will the nation handle him? These issues lead us to the Republican Convention.
I'm not angry.
Option 1 - Trump in Nominated First Ballot
This is the first option. I wouldn't say it is the best option, but it is the first. Based on the old rules, this would be the most likely outcome. But apparently the rules of the convention are created after the primary voting, instead of before. Which makes absolutely no sense. Trump technically holds the majority of delegates. There is a magic number, he has more than that. The old rules say that the delegates are usually obligated to follow their destiny. If the rules don't change, this would mean Trump is nominated and the Convention is only a hegemony festival with his family taking up the majority of the speaking time at the Convention, instead of a slug fest.
Option 2 - Trump is Nominated on a subsequent ballot
The gloves are dropped, however, this requires some things to happen. The main issue is changing the rules to all delegates to vote as they please or as their conscience tells them... of which they'd probably need to nominate Bernie Sanders. The trouble is, while they can agree they don't want Trump much, they have no viable alternative available or one they can agree on. In this case, the Donald swoops in, promises to make someone in particular his VP and they kiss and make up... the gloves were dropped, but nothing much came of it.
Option 3 - Trump and someone else are nominated
Holy fuck! Did it just get hot in here? The gloves are dropped, but it isn't going too much in favor of the anti-Trump movement. But it isn't entirely out of hand. It is kind of like Ali v Holmes. Ali is getting his butt handed to him, but he won't give up. And unlike Ali, the anti-Trump movement has enough committee votes to create a Minority Report or a parallel set of rules within the same convention. Think of it like an AL team playing an NL team in a baseball game, but the result actually matters. Two sets of rules, two conventions within one. This would possibly come down to majority of delegates per state to determine which candidate is on the ballot. This would be a crazy outcome, but not unprecedented. And it may not hurt Trump much, as long as Georgia, Texas, and all those other states with a lot of electoral votes that Republicans usually win... err... Georgia and Texas stay with him.
The benefit of this sort of Republican tantrum would be unknown. Could the Republicans support a split ticket or would it look like a party in shambles and things get even worse!?
Option 4 - Someone else is nominated
It is kind of like a Wrestling show. You wait to hear rumors of who is backstage for a big return or debut. Holy fuck! AJ Styles is in the back! Same sort of reaction for a Mitt Romney or Ted Cruz or Jon Voight, but not as exciting. This tells you there are changes in the making and they think they have the votes. The identity could be hinted based on the convention rule changes, such as is a rule removed that requires someone to win so many primaries to be the nominee. This would mean it wasn't Ted Cruz, but could be just about anyone else.
Trump is ousted in the first vote. If the nominee is to be one of the existing candidates, then we'd see a pop in their votes, otherwise, we wait to see someone else nominated. The only trouble with this is who would be dumb enough to replace Trump? Yes, I know, I know. Paul Ryan... the guy who seemingly is always put into a position he doesn't quite want to be in, first Romney's VP, then the Speaker of the House, then the guy who kind of "endorsed" Trump. He didn't want any of that. And now he doesn't want to run on this ticket... so it seems quite fitting... and you know he has to be at the Convention too. Other names like Romney or Gingrich come up. I'd say Gingrich may be the only person for the position because they wouldn't run Romney and Gingrich has no career to lose at this point.
Option 5 - Fuck it! No one is nominated.
You need a majority of votes. The one thing the Republicans have been having problems with is agreeing. What isn't known is just how loyal all of the Trump delegates are. Will they take the ship down with them, even if they can't get a majority for Trump? This would require the anti-Trump movement to solidify behind a single candidate. In the '16 primary season, the only guy that won states other than Trump was Cruz. It is hard to think Republicans would scorch the Earth to give the nomination to Cruz. So if the Republicans couldn't get behind anyone else except Trump, it is feasible the party continues to splinter.
My prediction
Who the fuck knows. It is too early to tell. I've already noted the crucial issues here, Trump's affect on the overall ticket and the money. Trump is raising money, but after Clinton gave him the gift of emails, he goes posting anti-Semitic crap from a Hitler lover. That sort of thing can lead to a mutiny. So we all know that Trump 2.0 was a bust. It is just Trump, the shitty candidate that only people who hate blacks seems to like, but managed to win the most Republican delegates.
I think the decision hasn't been made in Republican-topia. They are still assessing and planning potential alternative plans, but with limited people on the rules committee, it'll be hard to pull a fast one. Which may make options 1, 2, and 3 the most likely. Option 2 is the denial plan, but then they realize they can't pull it off. The trouble is, it'd look real bad to try and overthrow Trump and fail at it. Option 3 is scorched Earth-lite.
It really seemed a month ago that the Republicans had reached the stage of acceptance, but Trump's polling issues, the alleged difficulty in raising money, and his general inability to either tell the truth or sound decent is still pushing some Republicans back to denial. I suppose the biggest trouble the Republicans have with an alternative is that if they do go with one, Donald Trump isn't exactly the guy who'll just go back into the darkness. He'll send an armada of lawyers to the RNC and try to destroy them. Heck, he could even endorse Hillary Clinton (finally appeasing the conspiracy people that think he has been in it for Clinton the whole time).
I'm not angry.
Option 1 - Trump in Nominated First Ballot
This is the first option. I wouldn't say it is the best option, but it is the first. Based on the old rules, this would be the most likely outcome. But apparently the rules of the convention are created after the primary voting, instead of before. Which makes absolutely no sense. Trump technically holds the majority of delegates. There is a magic number, he has more than that. The old rules say that the delegates are usually obligated to follow their destiny. If the rules don't change, this would mean Trump is nominated and the Convention is only a hegemony festival with his family taking up the majority of the speaking time at the Convention, instead of a slug fest.
Option 2 - Trump is Nominated on a subsequent ballot
The gloves are dropped, however, this requires some things to happen. The main issue is changing the rules to all delegates to vote as they please or as their conscience tells them... of which they'd probably need to nominate Bernie Sanders. The trouble is, while they can agree they don't want Trump much, they have no viable alternative available or one they can agree on. In this case, the Donald swoops in, promises to make someone in particular his VP and they kiss and make up... the gloves were dropped, but nothing much came of it.
Option 3 - Trump and someone else are nominated
Holy fuck! Did it just get hot in here? The gloves are dropped, but it isn't going too much in favor of the anti-Trump movement. But it isn't entirely out of hand. It is kind of like Ali v Holmes. Ali is getting his butt handed to him, but he won't give up. And unlike Ali, the anti-Trump movement has enough committee votes to create a Minority Report or a parallel set of rules within the same convention. Think of it like an AL team playing an NL team in a baseball game, but the result actually matters. Two sets of rules, two conventions within one. This would possibly come down to majority of delegates per state to determine which candidate is on the ballot. This would be a crazy outcome, but not unprecedented. And it may not hurt Trump much, as long as Georgia, Texas, and all those other states with a lot of electoral votes that Republicans usually win... err... Georgia and Texas stay with him.
The benefit of this sort of Republican tantrum would be unknown. Could the Republicans support a split ticket or would it look like a party in shambles and things get even worse!?
Option 4 - Someone else is nominated
It is kind of like a Wrestling show. You wait to hear rumors of who is backstage for a big return or debut. Holy fuck! AJ Styles is in the back! Same sort of reaction for a Mitt Romney or Ted Cruz or Jon Voight, but not as exciting. This tells you there are changes in the making and they think they have the votes. The identity could be hinted based on the convention rule changes, such as is a rule removed that requires someone to win so many primaries to be the nominee. This would mean it wasn't Ted Cruz, but could be just about anyone else.
Trump is ousted in the first vote. If the nominee is to be one of the existing candidates, then we'd see a pop in their votes, otherwise, we wait to see someone else nominated. The only trouble with this is who would be dumb enough to replace Trump? Yes, I know, I know. Paul Ryan... the guy who seemingly is always put into a position he doesn't quite want to be in, first Romney's VP, then the Speaker of the House, then the guy who kind of "endorsed" Trump. He didn't want any of that. And now he doesn't want to run on this ticket... so it seems quite fitting... and you know he has to be at the Convention too. Other names like Romney or Gingrich come up. I'd say Gingrich may be the only person for the position because they wouldn't run Romney and Gingrich has no career to lose at this point.
Option 5 - Fuck it! No one is nominated.
You need a majority of votes. The one thing the Republicans have been having problems with is agreeing. What isn't known is just how loyal all of the Trump delegates are. Will they take the ship down with them, even if they can't get a majority for Trump? This would require the anti-Trump movement to solidify behind a single candidate. In the '16 primary season, the only guy that won states other than Trump was Cruz. It is hard to think Republicans would scorch the Earth to give the nomination to Cruz. So if the Republicans couldn't get behind anyone else except Trump, it is feasible the party continues to splinter.
My prediction
Who the fuck knows. It is too early to tell. I've already noted the crucial issues here, Trump's affect on the overall ticket and the money. Trump is raising money, but after Clinton gave him the gift of emails, he goes posting anti-Semitic crap from a Hitler lover. That sort of thing can lead to a mutiny. So we all know that Trump 2.0 was a bust. It is just Trump, the shitty candidate that only people who hate blacks seems to like, but managed to win the most Republican delegates.
I think the decision hasn't been made in Republican-topia. They are still assessing and planning potential alternative plans, but with limited people on the rules committee, it'll be hard to pull a fast one. Which may make options 1, 2, and 3 the most likely. Option 2 is the denial plan, but then they realize they can't pull it off. The trouble is, it'd look real bad to try and overthrow Trump and fail at it. Option 3 is scorched Earth-lite.
It really seemed a month ago that the Republicans had reached the stage of acceptance, but Trump's polling issues, the alleged difficulty in raising money, and his general inability to either tell the truth or sound decent is still pushing some Republicans back to denial. I suppose the biggest trouble the Republicans have with an alternative is that if they do go with one, Donald Trump isn't exactly the guy who'll just go back into the darkness. He'll send an armada of lawyers to the RNC and try to destroy them. Heck, he could even endorse Hillary Clinton (finally appeasing the conspiracy people that think he has been in it for Clinton the whole time).
