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Russia: Don't look for who did the MH17 shootdown

Calling it independent would be a bit of a stretch. Most of the passengers were dutch and Netherlands is a member of US lead NATO and both wholeheartedly supported Ukrainian coup in which neo-nazi played significant role.

The argument that it isn't independent on account of being a NATO member has already been addressed in this thread. I can't say I'm surprised you chose to just repeat the argument anyway.

And the argument that either the US or NATO supported a coup in Ukraine was already thoroughly debunked in previous threads. I can't say I'm surprised you chose to just repeat the argument anyway.

That's not what happening here. Almaz-Antey may be dependent but at least they are open about their "investigation". You can at least trash it, dutch are just not saying anything. To me it looks like they are withholding info which does not look good on official western theory. Not the first time it happened in this story.

The reason for not publicizing information has already been thoroughly explained in this thread. I can't say I'm surprised you chose to ignore that and repeat the already refuted argument that the authorities not publicizing their investigation data looks suspicious.


Also I have said it before, Almaz-Antey is still a business even though it's state owned it has to make money and it makes money abroad. And if you listen carefully to the video they clearly act as people who are concerned about reputation as a business. Outright lie is much worse than being silent and Putin understands that better than anybody, so he would no go and order these engineers to lie.

The argument that they're a business and that lying would be worse for them accordingly than being silent was already thoroughly debunked in the previous thread in which you made this argument. I can't say I'm surprised you chose to repeat the argument anyway.
 
If you have a point-by-point debunking of the analysis that for example Bellingcat did on the movements of the BUK, feel free to point it out.
I could but it's a lot of work. Why not point to one you think is real?
I will say one blunder Bellingcat made. they went to the trouble of crowdfunding to get a photo of Doneysk on july 17 2014 from DigitalGlobe the company that sells satellite images. the photo was from around 11.30 IIRC and should have shown the a buk on the road as shown infamous "Paris Match" photo. This photo showed that their claims about the buk were in fact fasle .images (2).jpg
The buk was not there on the morning of July 17 2014. That is one example
 
Source? By googling Neal Krawetz, I was only able to find him debunking some satellite photo analysis, which is not what I'm talking about. Are you sure you are not confusing the two? I got no hits on the smoke trail photo:
https://twitter.com/hackerfactor/status/605965967579963392
The smoke picture has been digitally altered.


Dr. Neal Krawetz
‏@hackerfactor
@Mare_Indicum "2.bmp" smoke picture is digitally altered. I'll upload images in a moment.
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Histogram shows the smoke (not suspicious) http://fotoforensics.com/analysis.php?id=d3f4e0bc86f5b3a8abd8df24c2254e57fa376a3d.1072891&fmt=orig
But...
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum But color density has 20-degree line far right of smoke. Shouldn't be anything there = alteration. http://fotoforensics.com/analysis.php?id=c14998c3a23b2e7ef5e05212c912adaefbd60b63.1733812&fmt=orig
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Look for the vertical line @ 20 degree angle about 1/3 from right side of picture.
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Odd... graininess too uniform & evenly distributed. High entropy yet low quality = Artificial noise added to deter analysis.
 
Bellingcats analysis is lies.
1.We have the Luhansk video shot before July 17, but claimed to be on the 18th
http://talkfreethought.org/showthre...n-t-look-for-who-did-the-MH17-shootdown/page3

2.We have the buk shown in the Paris Match photo not there in a satellite photo from DigitalGlobe.

3.We have a smoke plume photo that has been digitally altered, and that doesn't show up in another photo of the same place at that time.

4. we have photo of a buk in Torez reported on the 15th or 16th july that is claimed to be on the 17th.

5.We have buk that is on a truck then going down the road under its own steam then back on a truck (but apparently the same buk on the same day) :)

6. We have a fake audio from the SBU trying to frame the anti coup forces.

7. We have a distribution of damage on the plane that doesn't match with the alleged launch place (Snizhne)

Come on...smell the coffee :)

This is just the start. would you like more? :) I'm heading out for Italian pizza so will have to do it later. :)
 
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Bottom line, if you have evidence you provide it for everyone to see, you don't go and claim "We have the evidence that Russia is responsible" hours after the incident and then a whole year after the incident we are still waiting for John Kerry to provide that evidence. Are you planning to invade Russia to search for the evidence as you did with Iraq?
 
Bottom line, if you have evidence you provide it for everyone to see, you don't go and claim "We have the evidence that Russia is responsible" hours after the incident and then a whole year after the incident we are still waiting for John Kerry to provide that evidence. Are you planning to invade Russia to search for the evidence as you did with Iraq?
We wont be seeing that evidence because America will be unable to support the junta in Kiev if they show that evidence. :)
All sorts of excuses will continue to be made, as to why they can't release it. the only hope is that one of the honest people in the CIA or some such alphabet organisation leaks the truth. But they risk probably 30 years in jail if they do that in the land of Freedom.
 
There are five participating countries in the criminal investigation, only two of which are NATO members; a fact which has nothing to do with anything. The Netherlands leads the investigation because the majority of the victims were Dutch. Belgium is a part of the investigation because it also lost people and because the two countries already highly integrated law enforcement capabilities through the Benelux union. Ukraine is part of the investigation because the crime took place in its de jure territory. Even if they were initially suspects (nobody except Russian propaganda considers Ukraine to be a credible suspect anymore), that doesn't change the neccessity of their cooperation in providing certain access to help the investigation.

Russia is right o veto that proposal. Lets get the evidence out in the open and not keep it secret.

First, criminal investigations are not conducted out in the open. Period. It doesn't matter if it's an international incident or a good old fashioned murder. If you want to understand why information is not publically released while an investigation is ongoing, then I suggest you might want to think it over again.

Secondly, by veto'ing the proposal Russia has, in the eyes of the international community, essentially admitted its guilt. The irony is that it doesn't seem to understand this. Russia and its fanboys' behavior is completely paranoid; claiming anything and everything as an attack against them. They constantly complain that people are treating them as guilty of shooting down the plane, and then derail the issue by complaining about NATO this, US that... but when someone proposes to set up an international tribunal to investigate and prosecute those responsible, it vetoes it and just shouts out its paranoid delusions of persecution some more. This sort of behavior may make perfect sense to Russians. If Russia truly has nothing to do with it, then it should be the first to support this tribunal. By vetoeing it, Russia just makes itself look even more guilty than it already looks.


Also Russiia should be a party to any investigation and have access to whatever secrets are part of the curret investigation.

Russia has absolutely no business being a party to any investigation. It is the prime suspect; the crime did not take place in its territory; and it suffered no losses. If I had committed a major crime, it'd be incredibly convenient if I could have full access to the ongoing investigation. Fortunately, Russia doesn't get to make such demands.

In a court of law they call it discovery. You really do not believe in fairness at all do you? That disrespect extends past the rule of law in your case to those with a lot more life behind them than you have...and a lot more knowledge.
 
Bottom line, if you have evidence you provide it for everyone to see, you don't go and claim "We have the evidence that Russia is responsible" hours after the incident and then a whole year after the incident we are still waiting for John Kerry to provide that evidence. Are you planning to invade Russia to search for the evidence as you did with Iraq?

We've been over this before--they're not going to be releasing the data from the launch detection satellites, that would show Russia too much about what we can see.
 
Bottom line, if you have evidence you provide it for everyone to see, you don't go and claim "We have the evidence that Russia is responsible" hours after the incident and then a whole year after the incident we are still waiting for John Kerry to provide that evidence. Are you planning to invade Russia to search for the evidence as you did with Iraq?

We've been over this before--they're not going to be releasing the data from the launch detection satellites, that would show Russia too much about what we can see.
Then Kerry should have kept his mouth shut.
But yeah, we have been over this,.... in Iraq, great intelligence my ass.
I just got an idea. Russia can do the same and say "We know who did this, it's Ukraine, we have all the evidence, but we are not going to show you that"

Personally, I think US don't have any evidence at all, none.
 
I just got an idea. Russia can do the same and say "We know who did this, it's Ukraine, we have all the evidence, but we are not going to show you that"


That's funny. Repeating the Kremlin's line and then claiming you just made it up. :hysterical:
 
In a court of law they call it discovery. You really do not believe in fairness at all do you?

You really don't know how to fucking read, do you? We're talking about a criminal *investigation* here, not the prosecution withholding information from the defense during the actual court case. Or do you honestly believe that cops should tell suspects everything before they've even been charged? What a wonderful world that'd be for career criminals. :rolleyes:


That disrespect extends past the rule of law in your case to those with a lot more life behind them than you have...and a lot more knowledge.

Those with more life behind me? Irrelevant. Having been alive for longer than someone else doesn't mean they're more likely to be smarter or more knowledgeable (if anything it makes it more likely their knowledge is out of date, but that's neither here nor there) nor does it mean they're neccessarrily more experienced in any meaningful way.

And of course, I'm not particularly inclined to show any respect to people who demand it based solely on their age or the completely unsupported statement that they're more knowledgeable. Especially if they're so obviously incapable of actually understanding the difference between a criminal investigation and criminal proceedings. :rolleyes:
 
https://twitter.com/hackerfactor/status/605965967579963392
The smoke picture has been digitally altered.


Dr. Neal Krawetz
‏@hackerfactor
@Mare_Indicum "2.bmp" smoke picture is digitally altered. I'll upload images in a moment.
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Histogram shows the smoke (not suspicious) http://fotoforensics.com/analysis.php?id=d3f4e0bc86f5b3a8abd8df24c2254e57fa376a3d.1072891&fmt=orig
But...
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum But color density has 20-degree line far right of smoke. Shouldn't be anything there = alteration. http://fotoforensics.com/analysis.php?id=c14998c3a23b2e7ef5e05212c912adaefbd60b63.1733812&fmt=orig
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Look for the vertical line @ 20 degree angle about 1/3 from right side of picture.
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Dr. Neal Krawetz ‏@hackerfactor Jun 2
@Mare_Indicum Odd... graininess too uniform & evenly distributed. High entropy yet low quality = Artificial noise added to deter analysis.
That tweet seems to be based on a intentionally modified file, and even in the link to the Bellingcat post discussing it there is another version taht is claimed to be unmodified. I'm not an expert and all I can tell is that the image analysed by Krawetz and the one posted at Bellingcat are visibly different. It seems Krawetz was using some proprietary software for his analysis so it's hard to tell if reproducible, or if the artifact mentioned isn't something that is characteristic of the camera.
 
Bellingcats analysis is lies.
1.We have the Luhansk video shot before July 17, but claimed to be on the 18th
http://talkfreethought.org/showthre...n-t-look-for-who-did-the-MH17-shootdown/page3
No, what we have is Lysenko saying that there may be some video of a BUK being spotted before July 17th. That it is the same video is entirely up to speculation, as there are other videos of BUKs before July 17th available. The corraborating witness statements from locals makes it likely that the video is legit, and the BUK in the video had one missile missing. If the video was made before, when was it launched?

But for the sake of the argument let's say that's true and the video was made before the shooting by the SBU: it still means that the rebels or Russians did have a BUK in the area at some point. So do you concede that the rebels had a BUK, and therefore means to shoot down MH17?

2.We have the buk shown in the Paris Match photo not there in a satellite photo from DigitalGlobe.
Source? The DigitalGlobe images show that the truck carrying the BUK is not at the vehicle yard, which is consistent with it having been photographed by Paris Match elsewhere.

3.We have a smoke plume photo that has been digitally altered, and that doesn't show up in another photo of the same place at that time.
See my previous post: there isn't evidence of digital altering, since the images analysed were not originals. As for there being another photo that doesn't show the plume, you do realize that it's not a permanent structure? A photo of the same area at another time that doesn't have the smoke plume says absolutely nothing. And why do you think someone would take a photo of empty sky at that time to begin with? A photographer looked up in the sky where a plane debris was falling down, so he decided to take a photo of a compeltely different part of the sky that had absolutely nothing special going on there?

What we do have is independent corraboration by witnesses who said they saw the smoke plume.

4. we have photo of a buk in Torez reported on the 15th or 16th july that is claimed to be on the 17th.
Which ones are you talking about exactly?

5.We have buk that is on a truck then going down the road under its own steam then back on a truck (but apparently the same buk on the same day) :)
It got off the truck to shoot down the plane, duh.

6. We have a fake audio from the SBU trying to frame the anti coup forces.
If I recall when this was discussed way back then, the only "fake" part is that the published audio comprised of three separate calls. Otherwise the accusations of it being fake are pretty weak.

7. We have a distribution of damage on the plane that doesn't match with the alleged launch place (Snizhne)
According to a Russian state-owned company who is fighting its case on the criminal court to get sanctions removed. It's not an independent analysis: They could hardly come to the conclusion that a Russian BUK shot down MH17, so they've come up with an alternative scenario as their legal defense.

Come on...smell the coffee :)

This is just the start. would you like more? :) I'm heading out for Italian pizza so will have to do it later. :)
All your claims so far have been debunked. Sorry it took a few days, that's the nature of the disinformation that you've been fed by Russian troll factory: it takes orders of magnitude longer to debunk outlandish claims, than it does to make them.

The key point is this: trolls and propagandists can always create doubt in any evidence by breaking it up in smaller pieces and then trying to make each individual piece seem unreliable by either poisoning the well or even by exaggerating legitimate concerns like the fact that we haven't seen the original raw images, or that EXIF data in photos can be forged easily. When looking at one piece at a time, people who are predisposed to believing anything Putin says anyway are likely to think that there is a conspiracy going on masterminded by the USA and NATO in some dark back room of Pentagon. But if you put all the different pieces of evidence together, and they still corraborate each other in a consistent matter, they become more reliabel that the sum of their parts. The sheer extent of the conspiracy required to forge numerous BUK photos, videos, audio intercepts from rebels, social media postings both in USA and Russia, witness statements, radar and satellite images, and still make them support the same narrative is ludicruous. That's why it's much likely to be true than not.

Compare that with the Russian narrative, which seems to be different every week and consists of isolated and mutually contradictory theories. First it was the Su-54 planes shooting the plane with guns, then it was Ukraine with a BUK, then it was MiG shooting it with air-to-air missiles (with a witness hiding in Russian even), then it's Ukraine framing Russia for it, and now it's Almaz-Antey with its "magic missile" theory. And none of that sticks, why? Because it's all made up shit.
 
No, actually "we" can't tell anything of the sort from the damage. All you are doing is parroting Russian propaganda and Russian state-owned military industrial complex claiming so. The only independent study of the debris is being conducted by the Dutch safety board and they have not released a report on the damage yet.
Calling it independent would be a bit of a stretch. Most of the passengers were dutch and Netherlands is a member of US lead NATO and both wholeheartedly supported Ukrainian coup in which neo-nazi played significant role.
You had to fit al the Putin's talking points in one sentence, didn't you? :rolleyes:

The fac that the passengers were Dutch doesn't make Netherlands biased, it makes it more likely to want to find out the truth.

Now, I am not an Air accident investigation junkie and don't know the usual procedures but it has been a year and they have not released anything worthwhile. I mean it does not take much time or effort to do what Almaz-Antey did and determine most likely trajectory of the missile.
It took Almaz-Antey 11 months to do so. And what they have is not "most likely trajectory" - it's the most likely trajectory that doesn't implicate Russia or Almaz-Antey.


They released something but as I said it was worthless in terms of clearing things up.
Even if there are some rules preventing them from releasing info I find that too convenient for the West to follow it in case they have evidence exonerating Russian involvement. If I was falsely accused in the crime and knew some evidence was withheld I would be mighty mad.
It's pretty ballsy to blame the Dutch investigation to be biased because Netherlands is a NATO member, while taking reports that come straight from Russian military at face value.

That's not what happening here. Almaz-Antey may be dependent but at least they are open about their "investigation". You can at least trash it, dutch are just not saying anything. To me it looks like they are withholding info which does not look good on official western theory. Not the first time it happened in this story.
Also I have said it before, Almaz-Antey is still a business even though it's state owned it has to make money and it makes money abroad. And if you listen carefully to the video they clearly act as people who are concerned about reputation as a business. Outright lie is much worse than being silent and Putin understands that better than anybody, so he would no go and order these engineers to lie.
Almaz-Antey indeed does have business interests in mind. But in this case, their business interests is to get the sanctions removed by arguing that the weapons they manufactured were not used in downing MH17. Even if Almaz-Antey wasn't a state owned or even Russian, that would be enough to be skeptical of its claims.

As for reputation being ruined, that explains why they are being public about it. I agree that they can't outright lie, but what they can do is concoct an alternative scenario that would provide their court case with reasonable doubt.
 
Ok but they aren't the military.
Furthremore, it is currently being targeted by sanctions due to its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, and has every reason to lie. Besides, their presentation has holes that you could fly a 747 through.
What are the holes?
The issile that they claim is not used since 1999 has been spotted in Russia recently. Besides, there is no reason to think that Russia would not have old supplies available, and in this case it would make sense for Russia not to use weapons that Ukraine doesn't have, so it could have plausible deniability.

Second hole is that the trajectory that Almaz-Antey is saying the BUK took, is rather uncharacteristic. I'll try to find a source where I read it.
 
Back to the OP.
MH17 probe not truly independent and intl tribunal aimed at hiding its ineffectiveness – Lavrov
Moscow has come in for criticism from the West for refusing to back a motion calling for a criminal trial for those responsible for the tragedy. Lavrov hit back, saying that rather than this being a planned international inquiry, it would have in fact been made up of just a handful of nations.

“The proposal itself was very peculiar. It was proposed in the draft statute to establish the tribunal based mostly on Ukrainian law and for the judges and prosecutors in the tribunal to be appointed by the Secretary-General without consulting the Security Council and that the judges should have experience in exercising Ukrainian and Malaysian law,” he said.
 
No, what we have is Lysenko saying that there may
No he says there is a video, not that there may be one..
be some video of a BUK being spotted before July 17th.
And that the buk was in Luhansk.
That it is the same video is entirely up to speculation
Unless another video of buk in Luhansk comes to light then we can assume that this video is the only one.
, as there are other videos of BUKs before July 17th available
In Luhansk?.....no
.
The corraborating witness statements from locals makes it likely that the video is legit,
Which statements relating to a buk in Luhansk?
 
Calling it independent would be a bit of a stretch. Most of the passengers were dutch and Netherlands is a member of US lead NATO and both wholeheartedly supported Ukrainian coup in which neo-nazi played significant role.
You had to fit al the Putin's talking points in one sentence, didn't you? :rolleyes:
I don't listen to Putin.
The fac that the passengers were Dutch doesn't make Netherlands biased, it makes it more likely to want to find out the truth.
If it only was that simple.
Now, I am not an Air accident investigation junkie and don't know the usual procedures but it has been a year and they have not released anything worthwhile. I mean it does not take much time or effort to do what Almaz-Antey did and determine most likely trajectory of the missile.
It took Almaz-Antey 11 months to do so. And what they have is not "most likely trajectory" - it's the most likely trajectory that doesn't implicate Russia or Almaz-Antey.
It took them much less than that, they got data (from dutch) around February.
Look, you are free to criticize their conclusion. but your baseless accusations show your bias.
They released something but as I said it was worthless in terms of clearing things up.
Even if there are some rules preventing them from releasing info I find that too convenient for the West to follow it in case they have evidence exonerating Russian involvement. If I was falsely accused in the crime and knew some evidence was withheld I would be mighty mad.
It's pretty ballsy to blame the Dutch investigation to be biased because Netherlands is a NATO member, while taking reports that come straight from Russian military at face value.

That's not what happening here. Almaz-Antey may be dependent but at least they are open about their "investigation". You can at least trash it, dutch are just not saying anything. To me it looks like they are withholding info which does not look good on official western theory. Not the first time it happened in this story.
Also I have said it before, Almaz-Antey is still a business even though it's state owned it has to make money and it makes money abroad. And if you listen carefully to the video they clearly act as people who are concerned about reputation as a business. Outright lie is much worse than being silent and Putin understands that better than anybody, so he would no go and order these engineers to lie.
Almaz-Antey indeed does have business interests in mind. But in this case, their business interests is to get the sanctions removed by arguing that the weapons they manufactured were not used in downing MH17. Even if Almaz-Antey wasn't a state owned or even Russian, that would be enough to be skeptical of its claims.
That's a problem, you found a way to discount everything what Russians say.
As for reputation being ruined, that explains why they are being public about it. I agree that they can't outright lie, but what they can do is concoct an alternative scenario that would provide their court case with reasonable doubt.
Concosting false scenario is very risky,
 
But for the sake of the argument let's say that's true and the video was made before the shooting by the SBU: it still means that the rebels or Russians did have a BUK in the area at some point. So do you concede that the rebels had a BUK, and therefore means to shoot down MH17?
They definitely had a buk. We know that from multiple lines of evidence. It was captured on June 29 2014. Apparently, according to reports from that time, it was damaged and not able to function. This might explain why it was heading to Russia before the 17th. Before the plane came down. Like most or ll of the photos it comes from the SBU. Why do you trust them?

No, what we have is Lysenko saying that there may be some video of a BUK being spotted before July 17th.
We should have two videos of a buk in Luhansk but we only have one. It's from before July 17 but is later claimed to be from after the plane came down

Source? The DigitalGlobe images show that the truck carrying the BUK is not at the vehicle yard, which is consistent with it having been photographed by Paris Match elsewhere.
The last DigitalGlobe images obtained are from the morning of the 17th and show the road the "Paris Match" photo was apparently taken on. But the buk is not on the road. The DigitalGlobe imagery is very close to the same time and covers a big area. The buk should be there if the photo really was from the morning of the 17th July 2014,

See my previous post: there isn't evidence of digital altering, since the images analysed were not originals.
The originals contain more information but even a copy with retain evidence.

As for there being another photo that doesn't show the plume, you do realize that it's not a permanent structure? A photo of the same area at another time that doesn't have the smoke plume says absolutely nothing.
It is taken at the same time pretty much.

And why do you think someone would take a photo of empty sky at that time to begin with? A photographer looked up in the sky where a plane debris was falling down, so he decided to take a photo of a compeltely different part of the sky that had absolutely nothing special going on there?
tThe same sky from a different angle, just after the plane came down.

What we do have is independent corraboration by witnesses who said they saw the smoke plume.
Who?

Which ones are you talking about exactly?
There is only one photo of a buk in Torez. It is claimed to be from the 17th but is earlier.

It got off the truck to shoot down the plane, duh.
Before you say "duh" make sure we are on the same page. We have images of what is supposed to be the same buk driving on a main road. No truck.

According to a Russian state-owned company who is fighting its case on the criminal court to get sanctions removed. It's not an independent analysis: They could hardly come to the conclusion that a Russian BUK shot down MH17, so they've come up with an alternative scenario as their legal defense.
The distribution of the damage shows the missile did not come from Snizhne. There is fragment damage to the left engine cowling and no fragment exit holes on the right side of the cockpit.
 
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