Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Harry Bosch]

This is good. An interview with Konstantin Kisin about the Russian psyche

If Mr. Kisin is correct, then Russia and China are the dumbest mother fuckers in the history of the planet. To be honest, I don't know who is right yet. But Putin's actions have incredibly strengthened US in Eastern Europe. If Russia truly wanted to hurt the US, they would be nice to their neighbors. Rather than send in troops, tanks and artillery shells, send in economic development. Send in trade. Send in sports teams wanting to compete. Host local arts festivals. Disputes are fine. The US disagrees with Canada on issues all the time. But we don't threaten to bomb the living shit out of them if we don't always get what we want.

Same thing in China. If China truly wanted to separate Taiwan from the US, stop threatening to bomb the living shit out of them all the time! China routinely violates Taiwanese air space with fighter jets.

The real problem with the Kremlin and China is that they don't understand basic human nature.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

I think the comparison between Mariupol and the Alamo is surprisingly apt. The historical Battle of the Alamo was technically a victory by the Mexican side, but they conducted it with such extreme brutality that they accidentally created the rallying cry, "Remember the Alamo."

By the way, dishonoring the dead is just dumb.

In Chinese history, there is a story of how the philosopher Laozi helped to end a war by suggesting that the victor should honorably bury and mourn the dead, so the defeated enemy would consent to a peaceful surrender. This worked. Because Zong's soldiers took the extra step of honoring the dead, their enemy was given consolation.

The Iliad tells the opposite story but the same lesson. The downfall of Achilles really started when he chose to dishonor the body of his defeated enemy. His luck ran sour. The reason why is that to the ancient Greeks, just like the ancient Chinese, believed that someone that would dishonor the dead is someone that deserves to be defeated.

Brutality has a cost, and when a battle is won with excessive brutality, that is the beginning of a larger defeat.

 

[bilby]

This is good. An interview with Konstantin Kisin about the Russian psyche

If Mr. Kisin is correct, then Russia and China are the dumbest mother fuckers in the history of the planet. To be honest, I don't know who is right yet. But Putin's actions have incredibly strengthened US in Eastern Europe. If Russia truly wanted to hurt the US, they would be nice to their neighbors. Rather than send in troops, tanks and artillery shells, send in economic development. Send in trade. Send in sports teams wanting to compete. Host local arts festivals. Disputes are fine. The US disagrees with Canada on issues all the time. But we don't threaten to bomb the living shit out of them if we don't always get what we want.

Same thing in China. If China truly wanted to separate Taiwan from the US, stop threatening to bomb the living shit out of them all the time! China routinely violates Taiwanese air space with fighter jets.

The real problem with the Kremlin and China is that they don't understand basic human nature.

The motto oderint dum metuant* has led to the downfall of many tyrants in the two millennia since it was coined by Lucius Accius. Yet it remains inexplicably popular.










*'I smelled stupid when I encountered your mother's sister' - Translation provided by the If Only It Were English automatic translation system.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

 

[Jayjay]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

Right. The main difference, and the logical next step, is a drone that can come back after delivering the payload.

 

[bilby]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

Right. The main difference, and the logical next step, is a drone that can come back after delivering the payload.

I am unconvinced that a weapon, which by design leads the survivors of the enemy that you just attacked back to your position, is going to be popular with front line soldiers.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This is good. An interview with Konstantin Kisin about the Russian psyche

If Mr. Kisin is correct, then Russia and China are the dumbest mother fuckers in the history of the planet. To be honest, I don't know who is right yet. But Putin's actions have incredibly strengthened US in Eastern Europe. If Russia truly wanted to hurt the US, they would be nice to their neighbors. Rather than send in troops, tanks and artillery shells, send in economic development. Send in trade. Send in sports teams wanting to compete. Host local arts festivals. Disputes are fine. The US disagrees with Canada on issues all the time. But we don't threaten to bomb the living shit out of them if we don't always get what we want.

Same thing in China. If China truly wanted to separate Taiwan from the US, stop threatening to bomb the living shit out of them all the time! China routinely violates Taiwanese air space with fighter jets.

The real problem with the Kremlin and China is that they don't understand basic human nature.

I think that is a silly way of interpreting. I think we in the west are stupid. We don't understand the recipe for making democracy work. So we keep trying to export it, often with disastrous results. That's what happened in Russia, and why Putin is in power, and why Russians don't trust democracy.

There's so many factors underpinning democracy that we are ignoring.

Here's a wild theory. Viking society had plenty of democratic cultural traditions. After Rome collapsed various Viking groups set themselves up as lords of Western Europe. Essentially these same families still form the elites in the West and still flavour elite society. That could just as well be the reason why democracy has been so successful in the west. Its not impossible.

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

 

[Jayjay]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

Right. The main difference, and the logical next step, is a drone that can come back after delivering the payload.

I am unconvinced that a weapon, which by design leads the survivors of the enemy that you just attacked back to your position, is going to be popular with front line soldiers.

Maybe you could program it to emit an endearing barking sound when it comes back?

The idea isn't to come back to the exact same position though, just to get outside of enemy radio interference so it can be "debriefed" or guided back to be recharged and reused. If there is no radio interference, then there's no reason not to remote control the drone all the way. But on the other hand, there's not much point in sending a drone to shoot a missile at a target and then return, if a smart missile can guide itself to the target anyway.

 

[Harry Bosch]

This is good. An interview with Konstantin Kisin about the Russian psyche

If Mr. Kisin is correct, then Russia and China are the dumbest mother fuckers in the history of the planet. To be honest, I don't know who is right yet. But Putin's actions have incredibly strengthened US in Eastern Europe. If Russia truly wanted to hurt the US, they would be nice to their neighbors. Rather than send in troops, tanks and artillery shells, send in economic development. Send in trade. Send in sports teams wanting to compete. Host local arts festivals. Disputes are fine. The US disagrees with Canada on issues all the time. But we don't threaten to bomb the living shit out of them if we don't always get what we want.

Same thing in China. If China truly wanted to separate Taiwan from the US, stop threatening to bomb the living shit out of them all the time! China routinely violates Taiwanese air space with fighter jets.

The real problem with the Kremlin and China is that they don't understand basic human nature.

I think that is a silly way of interpreting. I think we in the west are stupid. We don't understand the recipe for making democracy work. So we keep trying to export it, often with disastrous results. That's what happened in Russia, and why Putin is in power, and why Russians don't trust democracy.

There's so many factors underpinning democracy that we are ignoring.

Here's a wild theory. Viking society had plenty of democratic cultural traditions. After Rome collapsed various Viking groups set themselves up as lords of Western Europe. Essentially these same families still form the elites in the West and still flavour elite society. That could just as well be the reason why democracy has been so successful in the west. Its not impossible.

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

Well, you missed my point. Yes, Kisin makes some very good points in the video. But I was laughing at his first point, that Russia is attacking Ukraine in order to get the US out of eastern Europe. If true, Russia is insane. Their actions are doing the absolute opposite. When you bully a country, you are inviting that country to find powerful allies to help you. That's what Russia is doing. They bully other countries then are incredibly surprised when those countries ally with others. Russia dosn't understand very basic human nature.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

Maybe some of us have just become complacent. Nations and societies just like businesses can become complacent and fail. Personally I'm big on scientific literacy and I think it and democracy are inseparable. The Greeks were a scientifically literate society that invented democracy. Sure, they venerated gods and could be as superstitious as us but they valued knowledge. They knew that freedom and knowledge were linked. They also knew that ignorance and subjugation were linked.

If you want to see elitism go to Russia or China. Russia is the poster boy for elitism. China is a close second.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

Right. The main difference, and the logical next step, is a drone that can come back after delivering the payload.

I am unconvinced that a weapon, which by design leads the survivors of the enemy that you just attacked back to your position, is going to be popular with front line soldiers.

It wouldn't have to come back to the guys who fired it, just to some location it could be recovered from. Direct them to return to an empty field.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The idea isn't to come back to the exact same position though, just to get outside of enemy radio interference so it can be "debriefed" or guided back to be recharged and reused. If there is no radio interference, then there's no reason not to remote control the drone all the way. But on the other hand, there's not much point in sending a drone to shoot a missile at a target and then return, if a smart missile can guide itself to the target anyway.

Actually there could be value in that--reducing the range the missile needs. Typically a long range missile uses some form of jet engine. Jet engines are expensive even if they are only going to be used once. Thus you could very well have a system where you replace that with a drone and a solid rocket motor to make the final sprint through the defenses. In many cases speed is of only very minor importance until you get close to your target.

 

[Jarhyn]

The "do the thing mode" is also known as "autonomous mode". The robots used on Martian missions cannot be teleoperated in real time, so they have sophisticated software programs that allow them to operate autonomously after receiving instructions. A lot of advances have been made in the autonomous operation of machinery in the past few decades. What is happening in Ukraine will lead to changes in how drones operate in the future, and I shudder to think of what that will mean for lethal drones that are cut free from control by human teleoperators. Fueled by popular science fiction fantasies, people have a strong tendency to overestimate the intelligence of autonomous operation of machinery.

Which is how all current torpedoes and anti-ship missiles work. They have some ability to take commands after launch but will make their own choices other than as directed by their command link (and there isn't always a command link--rocket and aircraft deployed torpedoes have initial orders and that's it.) Likewise the Javelin and Sidewinder missiles--they're shown the target but make their own decisions about what's actually happening as they fly. And the AMRAAM is akin to the anti-ship missiles--it can be told what to do but otherwise does it's own target decisions.

Right. The main difference, and the logical next step, is a drone that can come back after delivering the payload.

I am unconvinced that a weapon, which by design leads the survivors of the enemy that you just attacked back to your position, is going to be popular with front line soldiers.

It wouldn't have to come back to the guys who fired it, just to some location it could be recovered from. Direct them to return to an empty field.

Or direct it back through an ambush zone, and ambush the counter-attackers or trackers

Why just pop a tank when you can get the whole unit to rush into a trap?

I mean hell, you could program the damn thing to fly like it was hit and come down "in a field over there" where snipers are posted with sight lines.

There's a lot of shit you can do to people dumb enough to chase a wisp.

Or put a second grenade on it, pull the pin when motion is detected, then fly away again.

It's just really dumb to chase something you don't understand.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This is good. An interview with Konstantin Kisin about the Russian psyche

If Mr. Kisin is correct, then Russia and China are the dumbest mother fuckers in the history of the planet. To be honest, I don't know who is right yet. But Putin's actions have incredibly strengthened US in Eastern Europe. If Russia truly wanted to hurt the US, they would be nice to their neighbors. Rather than send in troops, tanks and artillery shells, send in economic development. Send in trade. Send in sports teams wanting to compete. Host local arts festivals. Disputes are fine. The US disagrees with Canada on issues all the time. But we don't threaten to bomb the living shit out of them if we don't always get what we want.

Same thing in China. If China truly wanted to separate Taiwan from the US, stop threatening to bomb the living shit out of them all the time! China routinely violates Taiwanese air space with fighter jets.

The real problem with the Kremlin and China is that they don't understand basic human nature.

I think that is a silly way of interpreting. I think we in the west are stupid. We don't understand the recipe for making democracy work. So we keep trying to export it, often with disastrous results. That's what happened in Russia, and why Putin is in power, and why Russians don't trust democracy.

There's so many factors underpinning democracy that we are ignoring.

Here's a wild theory. Viking society had plenty of democratic cultural traditions. After Rome collapsed various Viking groups set themselves up as lords of Western Europe. Essentially these same families still form the elites in the West and still flavour elite society. That could just as well be the reason why democracy has been so successful in the west. Its not impossible.

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

Well, you missed my point. Yes, Kisin makes some very good points in the video. But I was laughing at his first point, that Russia is attacking Ukraine in order to get the US out of eastern Europe. If true, Russia is insane. Their actions are doing the absolute opposite. When you bully a country, you are inviting that country to find powerful allies to help you. That's what Russia is doing. They bully other countries then are incredibly surprised when those countries ally with others. Russia dosn't understand very basic human nature.

Nations don't act like individual people. You are totally projecting. Treating it like a schoolyard. In International politics might often does make right. The world stood idly by when Russia nabbed Crimea. The rest of the world didn't do anything then. There's no reason to think that the west had grown any balls by now.

There's also the problem of European laziness following WW2. After WW2 USA became the world police supported by France and Germany. This made European countries lazy. NATO is basically a "daddy is going to fix it"-alliance. One of Trump's few accurate complaints. Or to put in human cost numbers. The reason Americans die earlier than Europeans is because a lot of money that could have gone to healthcare for the poor instead goes to weapons, for the benefit of the entire free world. Why would American voters put up with this? Well, they're increasingly not.

When Russia attacks something, European eyes turn to daddy, and if daddy doesn't commit troops, Europeans do nothing. At most European nations will act as a supporting force to American troops. This has got to change. Europeans have got to start acting like masters of their own house and stop being so dependent on USA. Which means investing in defense. That's only started happening after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

I believe that if Russia had been successful in rapidly taking Kiev, replacing Zemenskyy with a puppet, Europe would have gone back to sleep (like we did after Russia took Crimea). What's prompted defense investment in Europe is the lack of progress in Russia. The reason for this, I think is, hope. Before Russia's failure in Ukraine European nations lacked confidence they were able to fight Russia. Now they're starting to grow the fuck up. To get some balls.

 

[bilby]

The idea isn't to come back to the exact same position though, just to get outside of enemy radio interference so it can be "debriefed" or guided back to be recharged and reused. If there is no radio interference, then there's no reason not to remote control the drone all the way. But on the other hand, there's not much point in sending a drone to shoot a missile at a target and then return, if a smart missile can guide itself to the target anyway.

Actually there could be value in that--reducing the range the missile needs. Typically a long range missile uses some form of jet engine. Jet engines are expensive even if they are only going to be used once. Thus you could very well have a system where you replace that with a drone and a solid rocket motor to make the final sprint through the defenses. In many cases speed is of only very minor importance until you get close to your target.

Pulse jets are dirt cheap.

A metal tube, wider at the front than at the back, with a nozzle to spray gasoline into it, and a spark plug and a catapult to get it started. The spark plug isn't even needed in flight, so it only needs a tiny, short-lived power source - or you can arrange ignition at the launch site and dispense with even that component.

Engines don't get easier or cheaper to build.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

Maybe some of us have just become complacent. Nations and societies just like businesses can become complacent and fail. Personally I'm big on scientific literacy and I think it and democracy are inseparable. The Greeks were a scientifically literate society that invented democracy. Sure, they venerated gods and could be as superstitious as us but they valued knowledge. They knew that freedom and knowledge were linked. They also knew that ignorance and subjugation were linked.

If you want to see elitism go to Russia or China. Russia is the poster boy for elitism. China is a close second.

I agree that scientific literacy, or rather education and scientific methodology, is the key to success. To continually re-evaluate how things have been going and fix it for the future. I think you are ignoring what a watershed moment the shift from paganism to Christianity was. In Greek society the guiding principle was something called "pleonachos tropos". Ie, "multiplicity of explanations". It was also the guiding principle of pre-Christian Roman society, and they kept using the Greek term for it. It's the idea that you can describe the same thing in different ways. How you describe something will shift depending on perspective or frame of mind. They saw the religious frame of mind different from the scientific frame of mind, and they didn't place one over the other. That's why a pagan can simultaneously believe in God and be an atheist. Within paganism there was no conflict. Hinduism works the same way. You can be Advaita (an atheist Hindu). When we became Christian, only one narrative was permitted. That's why when Christians deconvert and become atheists they often feel they need to break with the church all together. But that's just them continuing to think like Christians. Scientism is Christian thinking blindly applied to scientific thinking. Christianity's extreme intolerance of alternative narratives is weird. It makes us shallow, stupid, intolerant and ignorant. I'd say it's the single most defining feature of Christianity.

I think you are right in that China is elitist. But it's not elitist in the way Medieval Europe was, where your lineage was all that mattered. China is deeply Confucian and has been for millennia. Ie Meritocratic to an extreme degree. It doesn't matter how fancy family you belong to, if you can't pass the very hard academic tests fair and square, you are out. This is why China, historically, has been a superpower. If you are born into the Chinese elite you are going to have to work extremely hard to stay there.

Russian elitism is similar in the sense that it really is "might makes right". Be strong or get broken. It's a brutal way to organize society. But it works.

 

[DrZoidberg]

In his May the seventh speech Putin manages, somehow, to blame the west for him attacking Ukraine. This is so weird. It's like an abusive husband trying to defend why he's been beating his wife by blaming the annoying neighbour. How does this make sense to anyone? Barbos, can you explain the logic behind this? I don't get it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61353374

 

[Jayjay]

In his May the seventh speech Putin manages, somehow, to blame the west for him attacking Ukraine. This is so weird. It's like an abusive husband trying to defend why he's been beating his wife by blaming the annoying neighbour. How does this make sense to anyone? Barbos, can you explain the logic behind this? I don't get it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61353374

The logic is that Putin can spout of any bullshit he wants, and he'll be proven right after he wins. Might makes right.

The moral bankruptcy of Russia is clear to anyone, but in the end the war isn't about moral victory, it's about military victory. And Russia seems to be edging towards that, albeit slowly. This weekend they captured Popasna and are close to cutting off Ukrainian supply lines to Severodonetsk. Russia is also preparing an attack from Kherson. Ukraine has been able to block Russia in some places, like Izyum, but it isn't in a position to do counter-attacks yet.

 

[Hermit]

The reason Americans die earlier than Europeans is because a lot of money that could have gone to healthcare for the poor instead goes to weapons, for the benefit of the entire free world.

The entire free world may benefit from the USA's policy of maintaining a military juggernaut rather than using the money to healthcare of the poor is not motivated by defending the free world against the threats of evil powers. It is motivated by defending economic interests, specifically the economic interests of the elite.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I think we in the west are incredibly naive and simple-minded about how and why democracy works.

Maybe some of us have just become complacent. Nations and societies just like businesses can become complacent and fail. Personally I'm big on scientific literacy and I think it and democracy are inseparable. The Greeks were a scientifically literate society that invented democracy. Sure, they venerated gods and could be as superstitious as us but they valued knowledge. They knew that freedom and knowledge were linked. They also knew that ignorance and subjugation were linked.

If you want to see elitism go to Russia or China. Russia is the poster boy for elitism. China is a close second.

I agree that scientific literacy is important for democracy. But it's more than just science. It's a way of thinking. To continuously re-examine ones beliefs and strategies and adapt. Something which Christianity, has always, strongly opposed. The European enlightenment, was to a large extent, a European reaction against the stranglehold of the church on any free thought. The relative academic free thought of the Post-Roman monastic world was only a thing because of the strong Roman and Greek pagan heritage. When Christianity was introduced into Northern European countries that had never been Roman, and had never had an academic tradition, the result became an incredibly suffocating intellectual climate. What the Catholic church has going for it, is the nudge, nudge, wink, double standards, we all know, existed. Protestantism has none of that. It became the death of thought.

China is deeply Confucian and has been for millennia. Ie Meritocratic to an extreme degree. It doesn't matter how fancy family you belong to, if you can't pass the very hard academic tests fair and square, you are out.

Russia is a nation born on the steppes of Asia. A place where being extremely aggressive was necessary to survive at all. It also got utterly devastated by the, anti-intellectual, Mongols. I think Russia is what you get when a people ends up on top after living through extreme hardship.