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Sanity in the UK?

You're making an artificial distinction. The treatments are based on the condition. What you are essentially saying is either gender dysphoria is not a legitimate condition or transition is not a legitimate treatment. Either that or suffering for gender dysphoric youth doesn't count for jack shit.

Not true. Doctors are being negligent and irresponsible and falsely diagnosing gender dysphoria in children who would become comfortable with their natal sex if allowed to go through a natural puberty. The diagnostic criteria being used for gender dysphoria in children is lax and isn't being responsibly used.

Your hypotheticals had absolutely nothing to do with that.

The average amount of time spent in evaluation is around 3 hours for kids, and is largely based on those kids not feeling a synergy with traditional, culturally reinforced gender roles.

That isn't recommended practice and wouldn't meet diagnostic criteria, if it actually occurs anywhere.

The only treatment being supported at the moment is "affirmation" which means that when kid says they're trans, the doctor immediately accepts it as true without challenge and affirms that kid's belief. Even if it is incorrect and they are 1) autistic, 2) homosexual, 3) suffering from childhood abuse or trauma often of a sexual nature, 4) a normal girl going through normal female dislike of their body and discomfort with how people's behavior toward them changes as they mature.

Where are you getting this information? Even with gender dysphoric children, not all seek to transition medically or socially for various reasons, including those who have seen specialists. Medical protocols aren't designed to force or push them toward medical intervention.

I do not have a blanket objection to hormone blockers and cross-sex hormones for children across the board. There are undoubtedly some children who have had persistent gender dysphoria from a very young age, and who have consistently identified as a non-matched gender from toddlerhood. For those children, it makes sense to provide interventionary treatment, and I support that.

But that's not what is going on right now.

I mean, it actually is, though I cannot guarantee there is no negligence anywhere. No one is promoting negligence.

That said, there are considerable complications to deal with, so youth are often treated under less than ideal situations, and currently there are no simple answers. The ideal is children presenting symptoms of gender incongruence would be brought to relevant medical professionals well prior to any need for medical intervention. Those medical professionals would be adequately trained and have the capacity to see patients without massive wait listing. The parents or guardians of those children would be interested only in the most suitable treatment for their child.

The reality is, parents are often a barrier to seeking medical attention and treatment as is bigotry and discrimination in general. In some regions, specialist clinics are overtaxed/ under resourced, and family doctors or points of referral aren't up to date on diagnostic criteria. And there is a timeline where indecision may lead to harm the longer it goes on. There is definitely disagreement on how to address these complications.
 
So there are cis people in this thread and a well adjusted trans person in this thread, but not a detransitioner I think. Anyone here a desister?
 
I'm willing to accept the consequences, however unlikely if I am wrong, to have the benefits I gain in the likely outcome that I am right. This is standard risk calculus.

Well, I suppose it's nice of you to be comfortable putting other people at risk. That's all that matters, right?

With respect to side effects... Go look into the effects of puberty that doesn't trigger naturally and ends up delayed. This isn't a mystery. It's not a side effect of the blockers, it's a side effect of puberty not occurring when it's supposed to. Permanently damaged bone density because growth plates don't close and bones don't increase density when they're supposed to. Delays in emotional and cognitive maturity. Increased risk of infertility. Increased anxiety, isolation, and depression. These are all side effects of puberty not occurring in its natural time.

In terms of persistence... this one gets iffy. If you look at rates when the ONLY treatment is affirmative of gender dysphoria, yes, you see about 90% of kids who go on blockers persist to cross sex hormones. If you look at countries and studies that do NOT prescribe blockers to every child that comes in uncomfortable with their gender, you see 80% of them grow out of that discomfort when they undergo a natural puberty. There's a strong suggestion that blocking puberty reinforces gender discomfort that would otherwise have alleviated on its own and left the child happy in their natal sex and not dependent on medical intervention for the rest of their lives. By blocking that puberty from occurring, you are in fact preventing the child from coming to terms with their sex as it is.

Of course, I don't expect you to give this any real consideration. You're already convinced that blockers are perfectly safe and reversible, and that this is the absolute best approach with no care whatsoever for the kids getting wrong diagnoses. I'm willing to bet that you also disregard and dismiss the people who desist after having gone through cross sex hormones, who in their twenties come back and say the doctors were wrong and they were never transgender in the first place... but hey - now they've permanently fucked up their bodies. No biggie. At least a few of those are genuinely trans and that's all that matters, right?

I and the doctors treating me are the only point of comfortability with risk that really matter to my own treatment, just as other people are for themselves alongside their own medical professionals.

So yes, that is all that matters: self determination.

There is no "supposed to" with life. There is only "what happens".

Many of the "SCARY THINGS!!!1!!1!one" you quote are only at risk for long term or very early suppressions. Some are more socially driven, some are more experientially driven. Some elements are not even detrimental per se (WRT delayed development; delays allow more experiential maturity in handling the changes as they actually do happen; my own puberty was smeared out through my late twenties!

When it comes to the 80% you mention where people are forced into discordant liberties though, mostly what you are going to see is resigned coping with their own bodies more than an actual appreciation of what happened: they can't actually do anything about it or get what they want, so they have to learn to love with yet another shattered dream. Good job. Gold fucking star, I guess. What doesn't kill you can only just fuck you up for life, right?

They don't grow out of the discomfort, they just are permanently shut out of having any satisfying options at all so they just take the one that requires the least effort at that point.

So fuck you demanding that children "come to terms with their sex as it is". Why should they have to when they can come to terms with their sex as it becomes?

And yes, I absolutely disregard those who desist* because the inverse position causes more hardship and harm (to desist is a surgical remediation; to transition via secondary rather than primary-alternate puberty is also a surgical remediation). There are an order of magnitude more remediations if you must remediate the persisters rather than the desisters because if you deny blockers you permanently fuck up THEIR bodies. No biggie. At least a few of those genuinely desistant people won't make a mistake right?

*Except as training to more clearly identify such false positives in the future and reduce their fraction.
 
So there are cis people in this thread and a well adjusted trans person in this thread, but not a detransitioner I think. Anyone here a desister?

I have... Let's see here... There's my husband who is trans, some of his college friends R and K (two brothers) one who transitioned non-binary (like Elliot Page) and the other who went full masculine, there's my non-binary friend in Seattle, there's my local friends W, and V, and N, and then my friend F. Beyond actual friendships, there's also my ex-wife C, and a number of online friends as well.

I'm buried in the trans community like a tick on a deer's asscrack, and I have yet to even meet a "detransitioner".

Of all of these, F is the only one who has flirted with desisting, and only because they have bad biological reactions to the oils used in most Estrogen/suppressor mixtures; it wasn't that she wanted to as much as she just couldn't continue. I don't know where she is at now in her journey.

Detransitioning following any sustained HRT is rare. People are going to know pretty quickly if they jive with their hormone monster or not.
 
Remember, there is a zero sum at play here: to satisfy either half you must apply equal amounts of corrective remediation and get equally unsatisfying results either way.

Um, no. This is NOT "zero-sum". ALL of the children who receive puberty blockers face long-term problems, including emotional and psychological delays.

I swear, this is like the opposite of a LWOP argument. If we were talking about the death penalty right now, your argument is the one analogous to "Use the death penalty more, it doesn't matter if several of the executed people end up being innocent of the crime they were charged with, that's a price I'm willing to pay in order to get the really bad guys gone".

But how serious a problem are delays? Do they not catch up later?
 
Remember, there is a zero sum at play here: to satisfy either half you must apply equal amounts of corrective remediation and get equally unsatisfying results either way.

Um, no. This is NOT "zero-sum". ALL of the children who receive puberty blockers face long-term problems, including emotional and psychological delays.

I swear, this is like the opposite of a LWOP argument. If we were talking about the death penalty right now, your argument is the one analogous to "Use the death penalty more, it doesn't matter if several of the executed people end up being innocent of the crime they were charged with, that's a price I'm willing to pay in order to get the really bad guys gone".

But how serious a problem are delays? Do they not catch up later?

Also, a better question regarding development is what the overall lifetime impact of a "delay" of this particular kind is; does it also delay other things, like neural pruning rounds, and the events that lead to plasticity loss?

Humans develop slowly, more slowly than all the other primates. We learn for longer, come out less developed. This allows us to grow more before we become "hidebound" adults.

It is absolutely jumping the gun to point to a delay (one that has not been verified through study!) And say it is, purely from the fact that it is a delay, bad. After all, we are VERY delayed compared to other primates, get we get vast benefit from it.
 
I and the doctors treating me are the only point of comfortability with risk that really matter to my own treatment, just as other people are for themselves alongside their own medical professionals.

So yes, that is all that matters: self determination.
Are you a transgender person seeking puberty blockers prior to the onset of puberty? If not... then I don't know what this bit is about.

There is no "supposed to" with life. There is only "what happens".
That's... kind of creepy and odd. There is a well-established progression that occurs if there is no external interference. That is the natural progression. That is "what's supposed to happen". That is reflective of the normal progression of human development.

Many of the "SCARY THINGS!!!1!!1!one" you quote are only at risk for long term or very early suppressions. Some are more socially driven, some are more experientially driven. Some elements are not even detrimental per se (WRT delayed development; delays allow more experiential maturity in handling the changes as they actually do happen; my own puberty was smeared out through my late twenties!
Actually, they're risks for a delay of only a few years. One of the biggest concerns with puberty blockers is that they block cognitive and emotional development as well as physical development. The two pathways are triggered by the same process. I don't kow what you mean by "experiential maturity" here... given that maturity in all senses is delayed

When it comes to the 80% you mention where people are forced into discordant liberties though, mostly what you are going to see is resigned coping with their own bodies more than an actual appreciation of what happened: they can't actually do anything about it or get what they want, so they have to learn to love with yet another shattered dream. Good job. Gold fucking star, I guess. What doesn't kill you can only just fuck you up for life, right?

They don't grow out of the discomfort, they just are permanently shut out of having any satisfying options at all so they just take the one that requires the least effort at that point.
What? No. You should really do some research on this. I get that you have a personal stake in this topic. But don't assume that what is right for you is also right for any child - especially those whose dysphoria came on rapidly and without any childhood indications. That's a situation that is occurring a whole lot over the last few years. You're willing to fuck up 80% for life, in order to avoid fucking up 20% who are NOT left with no other options, but still have access to HRT and other means of transition.

So fuck you demanding that children "come to terms with their sex as it is". Why should they have to when they can come to terms with their sex as it becomes?
Because one of those options can cause long-term problems that would otherwise have not occurred.

And yes, I absolutely disregard those who desist* because the inverse position causes more hardship and harm (to desist is a surgical remediation; to transition via secondary rather than primary-alternate puberty is also a surgical remediation). There are an order of magnitude more remediations if you must remediate the persisters rather than the desisters because if you deny blockers you permanently fuck up THEIR bodies. No biggie. At least a few of those genuinely desistant people won't make a mistake right?
What the hell? Okay, let's take a second here and think about this.

Scenario 1 - Every gender confused child gets puberty blockers easily and without barriers. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~20%): They will avoid the development of secondary sex characteristic, the maturation of primary sex characteristics, and the mental and cognitive maturity that occurs during puberty. During that delay, their growth plates don't close properly, which reduces bone density long term, and face increased risk of infertility. When they progress to cross-sex hormones, they develop the secondary sex characteristics of the opposite sex, and mature cognitively, even though this is later than their same-age peers. Those secondary sex characteristics are PERMANENT changes, by the way. Female transgender kids will develop facial and body hair, deeper voices, and increased muscle mass, and will not develop breast tissue, and their ovaries won't mature which produces permanent infertility. Male transgender kids will develop breast tissue, higher body fat, and their penis will not elongate, and their testes will not produce motile sperm which results in permanent infertility as well as not enough penile tissue to produce a functional neovagina, which means they're unlikely to ever experience orgasm.

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~10%): These are the kids that are temporarily dysphoric (not uncommon, especially in females). They take puberty blockers, but get lucky and desist PRIOR TO cross-sex hormones. They experience all of the long-term issues related to puberty blockers, including the increased risk of permanent infertility and bone density loss, and exhibiting cognitive and emotional maturity that lags their same-age peers. When they stop taking blockers, they develop secondary sex characteristics... but depending on how long they blocked puberty, they still risk permanent disruption to their reproductive capacity and may never develop matured ovaries or motile sperm.

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~70%): These kids would be temporarily dysphoric if they were not given puberty blockers. The puberty blockers delay the cognitive and emotional maturity that would occur, as well as the development of secondary sex characteristics that would otherwise have alleviated the temporary dysphoria. The puberty blockers reinforce their dysphoria while they are blocked. They continue on to cross-sex hormones, with all of the long-term issues listed above for genuinely dysphoric kids. Their discomfort and anxiety is NOT mitigated by transition, and they continue to experience emotional trauma long term. Of these, some portion (unknown) will recognize in their mid to late twenties (after full maturity is attained) that they were NOT dysphoric in the first place and should NOT have been transitioned at all. At this point, if they're lucky enough to have not undergone any surgery, they're still left with the secondary sex characteristics of the opposite sex rather than the naturally developed characteristics of their own sex, and are highly likely to be permanently infertile.

Summary: In this scenario, every child involved faces long-term risks caused by delaying puberty, including increased risk of infertility. Many of them have permanently altered their bodies and developed secondary sex characteristics of the opposite sex. All of them are medically harmed to at least some degree.

Scenario 2 - Every gender confused child undergoes counseling aimed at alleviating their anxiety and discomfort including becoming comfortable with their physical sex as an option but NOT trying to avoid transition for those who persist. Puberty blockers are delayed until after the onset of puberty by about one year - this includes onset of menses for females and elongation of the penis for males. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~10%): They begin development of secondary sex characteristics, but do not complete puberty, reducing the overall impact of those sex characteristics on later transitions. They experience the onset of sexual maturity and attraction, develop enough penile tissue to experience orgasm (leaving enough to create a functional neovagina if they choose to undergo surgery), and develop functional gametes that can at minimum be harvested and stored in case they want to have biological children at a later date. They still face the long-term effects of cross-sex hormones, but the effects of delayed puberty are reduced (not eliminated).

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~60% to 70%): These kids undergo counseling and experience the onset of their natural puberty, at which point their dysphoria resolves and they live normal healthy lives with no long-term effects.

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~10% to 20%): These kids undergo counseling and experience the onset of natural puberty, but their dysphoria doesn't resolve within that first year of puberty, and they proceed to puberty blockers. Some portion of these kids (unknown %) will resolve their dysphoria prior to taking cross-sex hormones, but will have side effects from delayed puberty. The remainder will undergo cross-sex hormones before they decide that they were not genuinely dysphoric. These kids have long-term effects from the cross-sex hormones.

Summary: In this scenario, between 60% and 70% of the kids will have no long-term medical side effects, and will develop normal healthy bodies. 10% of the kids who are genuinely dysphoric will have a moderately more complicated transition, but will retain their ability to orgasm, as well as having mature gametes capable of being harvested for future parenthood if they choose. Between 10% and 20% have reduced long-term effects from delayed puberty, and some will have permanent effects from cross-sex hormones.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As of right now, you seem to prefer the first scenario, because it's a better benefit for the 10% who are genuinely dysphoric... and just fuck the other 90% of kids who end up harmed by this approach.
 
Remember, there is a zero sum at play here: to satisfy either half you must apply equal amounts of corrective remediation and get equally unsatisfying results either way.

Um, no. This is NOT "zero-sum". ALL of the children who receive puberty blockers face long-term problems, including emotional and psychological delays.

I swear, this is like the opposite of a LWOP argument. If we were talking about the death penalty right now, your argument is the one analogous to "Use the death penalty more, it doesn't matter if several of the executed people end up being innocent of the crime they were charged with, that's a price I'm willing to pay in order to get the really bad guys gone".

But how serious a problem are delays? Do they not catch up later?

Aye, there's the rub.

There has been no study for the long-term effects of externally delivered puberty blockers for non-precocious children. Zero. None at all.

On the other hand, however, the effects of developmental disorders that delay or prohibit puberty are actually known. A delay to the onset of puberty beyond age 16 is known to cause long-term lasting effects. Endocrinologists who specialize in these types of disorders generally begin prescribing hormone therapy no later than age 15, and sometimes earlier depending on family history an when natural puberty began for closely related people. It has already been established that the delay of puberty in these kids prevents the growth plates from closing when they should, which directly affects the development of denser, stronger bones, and has long-term effects. It is also known that a delay of too long can cause permanent infertility, even if secondary characteristics develop later through the use of hormone therapy. This is because the maturation of the gamete cells doesn't occur. It also has known psychological impacts, including the delay of cognitive and emotional maturation that is paired with physical development. There is also some increased risk of other illnesses and conditions like stroke and heart attack, but the change in risk is fairly small, so I haven't really focused on that.

Many people reference the use of puberty blockers to delay puberty in precocious development. The problem is that these kids aren't analogous to a child who would otherwise be entering a natural puberty. The delay in closing growth plates in a precocious child is virtually non-existent - they grow in height alongside their peers and in keeping with biological norms, and when the blockers are removed at puberty-age, their bones become denser in the same way that non-precocious children do. They also undergo cognitive and emotional maturation at the same time as their same-age peers, and there is no known impact to fertility.

But precocious development of an 8 yo is not necessarily analogous to natural development of a 12 yo. There is a tendency to assume that they're equivalent, and that because blockers don't have any observed long-term risks for precocious puberty, they must also not have any for delaying natural puberty.
 
It is absolutely jumping the gun to point to a delay (one that has not been verified through study!) And say it is, purely from the fact that it is a delay, bad. After all, we are VERY delayed compared to other primates, get we get vast benefit from it.

Why is it better to assume that there are no risks to delay when there've been no studies of the long-term effects of puberty blockers? Especially when we know already that disorders that delay puberty DO have long-term effects
 
Scenario 1 - Every gender confused child gets puberty blockers easily and without barriers. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~20%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~10%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~70%):

Where are you getting these numbers?

Their ass.

They are making the false declaration that 'having to mourn and cope with the lifelong disappointment of having the wrong body rather than ending up "somewhere in between and freakish looking"' is 'not actually trans'.

It doesn't mean they aren't dysphoric Emily, it just means that between the choice of 1 or more surgeries and never ever being able to pass anyway vs just dealing with the angst, they choose the angst.
 
Scenario 1 - Every gender confused child gets puberty blockers easily and without barriers. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~20%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~10%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~70%):

Where are you getting these numbers?

Their ass.

Maybe, but it kind of feels like she's pulling on talking points I've encountered frequently before.

It is true that good data is hard to come by with this issue. There are so many complicating factors. But this 80% figure, in particular, feels like it pulls from a handful of studies (Blanchard and Steensma come to mind) which wouldn't likely translate to the current scenario for various reasons, most notably diagnostic criteria being a) changed and b) more rigidly applied in proper treatment protocols. Other comments feel like familiar talking points (e.g. notes of ROGD). So I guess I am curious where this research is coming from because I suspect it is not her ass.
 
Their ass.

Maybe, but it kind of feels like she's pulling on talking points I've encountered frequently before.

It is true that good data is hard to come by with this issue. There are so many complicating factors. But this 80% figure, in particular, feels like it pulls from a handful of studies (Blanchard and Steensma come to mind) which wouldn't likely translate to the current scenario for various reasons, most notably diagnostic criteria being a) changed and b) more rigidly applied in proper treatment protocols. Other comments feel like familiar talking points (e.g. notes of ROGD). So I guess I am curious where this research is coming from because I suspect it is not her ass.

It is, absolutely, from her ass, as far as what the numbers mean and how to interpret them.

As I stated, she has named those who don't initiate a transition after being denied blockers as "false" cases.

She literally groups everyone who was denied blockers and didn't later transition as a "false case". That's absolutely out her ass. Or out of someone's ass.

Seeing as 90% continue to HRT after not being forced to into unwanted development, that's some bullshit.

Also, I might add, her assumption of major negative health impacts as a result of not having androgen exposure is kinda nutty seeing as that people born with testicles who then live without androgen exposure actually have an increased life expectancy by an average of 7 years.

Anyway, her assertion that not seeking treatment means someone isn't dysphoric is immediately suspect. It just means "if I'm going to have an adam's apple and broad shoulders what is even the point?" Is a large consideration. It's not like the dysphoria went away, there's just no good way to resolve it once the puberty has already happened.
 

Reading that story, it becomes clear that follow-on care and involvement and other normal "pathway" elements were foregone there. Person tries a treatment, doesn't discuss results of treatment as they happen, but keeps doing it because ???

Yeah, that's a nightmare, and if you read the article you will even see her noting that she's an outlier.

It's no less a nightmare when the majority of trans people go through the wrong puberty, though. Imagine the inverse cohort, who have to do everything she did to "detransition", but for their primary transition. The work to detransition is an order of magnitude less than the work to do a secondary puberty transition rather than a single-puberty transition, because there an order of magnitude(or two) more seeking primary transition.

Everyone denied a primary puberty of their choice and then later transitions is a "detransitioner" in this way.
 
Scenario 1 - Every gender confused child gets puberty blockers easily and without barriers. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~20%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~10%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~70%):

Where are you getting these numbers?

In countries where puberty blockers are given to essentially any child that identifies themselves as being dysphoric, 90% to 95% move on to cross-sex hormones. In countries where puberty blockers are not given to children under 18, 80% of those who present with self-identified dysphoria stop being dysphoric after they begin a natural puberty.

So... Interpolating between those, I'd say that of those presenting as self-identified dysphoric prior to puberty, about 20% of them are genuinely and persistently dysphoric (the other part of the 80% whose dysphoria resolves). I'd say about 10% of them (the other part of the 90% above who desist even when they're given puberty blockers) fall into group 1. The remainder is 70%. That's the overlap between the two starting points - the 80% whose dysphoria resolves without puberty blockers being used, versus the 10% whose dysphoria resolves when puberty blockers are used.

That is the inferred set of children whose dysphoria would resolve naturally when they entered puberty, but who move on to cross-sex hormones when puberty blockers prevent them from experiencing the sexual and physical maturity that would have resolved their dysphoria.
 
Also, I might add, her assumption of major negative health impacts as a result of not having androgen exposure is kinda nutty seeing as that people born with testicles who then live without androgen exposure actually have an increased life expectancy by an average of 7 years.
No, this is based on having a relative with Kallman syndrome. Androgen insensitivity doesn't prevent puberty. People with either partial or full androgen insensitivity still go through puberty. In the case of full insensitivity, IIRC, you get people who are chromosomally male but who develop as infertile women. They still experience puberty, and it's not delayed.

Also, intersex is not gender dysphoria. The overwhelming majority of transgender people are not intersex. The overwhelming majority of intersex people are not transgender.

Anyway, her assertion that not seeking treatment means someone isn't dysphoric is immediately suspect. It just means "if I'm going to have an adam's apple and broad shoulders what is even the point?" Is a large consideration. It's not like the dysphoria went away, there's just no good way to resolve it once the puberty has already happened.
Seriously, this ends up sounding like you think all cis people are just closet trans.

Additionally, I think you maybe don't know any females? I mean, seriously, some degree of dysphoria, in addition to a slew of often intense body dysmorphia, is very common in females on the brink of puberty, and through the first year of pubertal development. Most of the very happily full grown cis-women I know (including myself) went through a stage when our boobs started to sprout of desperately wishing we could be boys instead. It just didn't last long, and as we developed we became comfortable with our sex.
 
Scenario 1 - Every gender confused child gets puberty blockers easily and without barriers. Let's look at the cohorts:

- Genuinely dysphoric kids (~20%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 1 (~10%):

- Falsely dysphoric kids Set 2 (~70%):

Where are you getting these numbers?

In countries where puberty blockers are given to essentially any child that identifies themselves as being dysphoric, 90% to 95% move on to cross-sex hormones. In countries where puberty blockers are not given to children under 18, 80% of those who present with self-identified dysphoria stop being dysphoric after they begin a natural puberty.

So... Interpolating between those, I'd say that of those presenting as self-identified dysphoric prior to puberty, about 20% of them are genuinely and persistently dysphoric (the other part of the 80% whose dysphoria resolves). I'd say about 10% of them (the other part of the 90% above who desist even when they're given puberty blockers) fall into group 1. The remainder is 70%. That's the overlap between the two starting points - the 80% whose dysphoria resolves without puberty blockers being used, versus the 10% whose dysphoria resolves when puberty blockers are used.

That is the inferred set of children whose dysphoria would resolve naturally when they entered puberty, but who move on to cross-sex hormones when puberty blockers prevent them from experiencing the sexual and physical maturity that would have resolved their dysphoria.

You are making a LOT of TERRIBLE assumptions, namely the actual prognosis of those who "don't". You are ascribing motivations to them, measures of qualitative state that you have no data leverage on.

Ultimately speaking you don't know why people who don't get blockers don't pursue HRT. You can't answer the question, especially when 90% continue with HRT when they do get them and vanishingly few of those people ever have regrets.

Literally the best case scenario for your argument could ONLY be stated as "70% of those denied blockers do not transition", and the most favorable conclusion you could possibly reach is that "70% of people who are denied blockers are comfortable enough in the resultant body to not want to change it."

This doesn't mean they aren't trans. It just means their trans affect is not strong enough to be worth a second puberty and shitty halfway results.
 
Their ass.

Maybe, but it kind of feels like she's pulling on talking points I've encountered frequently before.

It is true that good data is hard to come by with this issue. There are so many complicating factors. But this 80% figure, in particular, feels like it pulls from a handful of studies (Blanchard and Steensma come to mind) which wouldn't likely translate to the current scenario for various reasons, most notably diagnostic criteria being a) changed and b) more rigidly applied in proper treatment protocols. Other comments feel like familiar talking points (e.g. notes of ROGD). So I guess I am curious where this research is coming from because I suspect it is not her ass.

The 80% is mostly from this study:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0890856713001871
Roughly the same rate has been found in other studies over the years, but they were all much smaller.

The 90% to 95% is predominantly coming from claims made by Tavistock clinic in England, which has been extremely pro-blockers over the past few years.
 
For FTMs who detransition and are attracted to men, the issue of their permanently lower voice has got to a be serious hurdle in the dating market.

For me, and I think I am normal straight guy, it is (and would have been when I was dating age) an instant hyper deal breaker seeing even an otherwise very attractive woman with a teenage boy's or adult male's voice. It is nothing that I can control, but some part of my brain goes nope.

I am being an honest asshole here because no one else is.
 
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