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Super Tuesday Is Upon Us!

I mean the Boomers pick an ineffective candidate out of fear of "too much change" and Trump wins.

Yeah, I'm afraid of that too. I'm pretty disappointed, for Bernie to have a realistic path forward, he would have had to have clinched Texas, California at a bare minimum, and Massachusetts for good measure.

Biden has a lot of baggage. But who knows? He is popular in the Midwest. Trump really won the electoral college on a fluke. However, I fear his supporters are extremely motivated, a cursory look at the turnout in the Republican primaries shows that people want to come out and vote for him.

If Bloomy keeps spending like a drunken sailor on deposing the Trump regime there's a good chance that Biden could win IMO. He's going to need to pick Warren (or someone who isn't a closet Republican) as a running mate though. When I voted for Warren (in CO) it was with the thought of giving her some political capital for that very purpose.
 
Biden's campaign was running on fumes last week. No money, no presence on the ground in CA or many other large ST states. And no real vision of why he's running to inspire voters, other than a claim to be able to unseat Trump. Much like Clinton in 2016.

What happened was the DNC got alarmed at the prospect of Sanders building an unsurmountable lead yesterday, based on performance in NV and polling afterwards, and engineered the other moderates dropping out. Because Sanders threatens the DNC, and their cozy shadow-RNC insider shell game of pretending to represent their base and its economic priorities, but prefering to court rich donors and corporations in order to get rich themselves and keep access to power. This devils bargain requires them to neuter anything that threatens the status quo, and Biden is the perfect totem for this. He has that track record. He reassures rich donors. He did reassure them last year - he told them he wouldn't change anything fundamentally.

The cable and broadcast media support this: they are corporations too and are threatened by Sander's assault on healthcare profiteering - most of the ads that run on their shows are for prescription drugs. MSNBC have openly attacked Sanders, and CNN do it more discretely. Their pundit panels are stacked with DNC operators, veterans of Clinton and Obama campaigns and those ambitious enough to play the insider game and not bite the hands that feed them by calling attention to the dysfunction in the capitol. All of these people are there to reassure their audience that the adults are in charge, that the economy is doing well (because unemployment is low) and that wars are patriotic.

The message being amplified over and over again is that Sanders is not "us" (he isn't), he's a threat (he is to them), and he must be stopped, and the DNC needs to stop him. This has been going on for weeks now. Given that the voters broke massively for Biden last night, and it wasn't because anyone for him knocked on their doors or called them up or they saw any of his ads, it's likely that this drumbeat TV messaging and the big win in SC swayed them. The key endorsement was Clyburn, and he's deep in the pockets of the pharma industry. He took over a million in funding from them over 10 years. He's another symbol of what's wrong with the DNC. Of course he's not going to endorse the candidate angry about his constituents (and everyone else) being ambushed and bankrupted by medical bills.

This isn't entirely a CT narrative, and that Democrat voters are no more than just zombies with transmitters, but I think the reality is more complex than, well, Sanders wasn't able to make his case. He's been right about just about every negative trend in the past 20-30 years, and this Coronavirus outbreak and the threat it poses underlines every point he's making about the need for access to medical care at the point of delivery, paid sick leave, and the compassionate treatment of the most impoverished members of society. His candidacy is not without risks, but progressives have no seat at the table, that much is obvious, and yet again we're being asked to back a weak, compromised, corrupt, establishment-friendly candidate, who doesn't inspire anyone, just attracts those willing to settle, and not willing to think about what helped create Trump in the first place.

It's so easy to fall back on conspiracy theories, isn't it, especially when facts are inconvenient. The facts are that everything had been going Sanders' way, but he still wasn't able to build a strong case for the nomination. He had money, people, and strong showings in the first states. But he hit the wall, hard, in SC, and overnight, his weakness was exposed. The simple fact is that vast numbers of average Americans are afraid of him and his platform, which lots of people hear as "free everything for everyone".

The DNC isn't 1/10th as smart or as capable as your scenario needs them to be.
 
If Bloomy keeps spending like a drunken sailor on deposing the Trump regime there's a good chance that Biden could win IMO. He's going to need to pick Warren (or someone who isn't a closet Republican) as a running mate though. When I voted for Warren (in CO) it was with the thought of giving her some political capital for that very purpose.

Well, Massachusetts has a GOP Governor, so that nixes Warren as a potential VP. I think someone like Stacey Abrams would be near the top of the list.
 
If Bloomy keeps spending like a drunken sailor on deposing the Trump regime there's a good chance that Biden could win IMO. He's going to need to pick Warren (or someone who isn't a closet Republican) as a running mate though. When I voted for Warren (in CO) it was with the thought of giving her some political capital for that very purpose.

Well, Massachusetts has a GOP Governor, so that nixes Warren as a potential VP. I think someone like Stacey Abrams would be near the top of the list.

True, the Democrats can't afford to lose that seat for 4 years. Klobuchar could be on the list also. Abrams would be interesting, but a VP under an old guy should probably have more experience than the Georgia State House.

Who can attract some of the Bernie die-hards? Booker has worked with Sanders on drug pricing legislation.

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If Bloomy keeps spending like a drunken sailor on deposing the Trump regime there's a good chance that Biden could win IMO. He's going to need to pick Warren (or someone who isn't a closet Republican) as a running mate though. When I voted for Warren (in CO) it was with the thought of giving her some political capital for that very purpose.

Well, Massachusetts has a GOP Governor, so that nixes Warren as a potential VP. I think someone like Stacey Abrams would be near the top of the list.

True, the Democrats can't afford to lose that seat for 4 years. Klobuchar could be on the list also. Abrams would be interesting, but a VP under an old guy should probably have more experience than the Georgia State House.

Who can attract some of the Bernie die-hards? Booker has worked with Sanders on drug pricing legislation.

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Only Bernie and the squad can convince their people to support Biden. Whoever Biden picks, it will be someone young. He made mention of “passing the torch to a younger generation” when Buttigieg endorsed him. Right after that, Biden likened Pete to his son, Beau, stating it was the highest compliment he could pay anyone. Just saying.
 
Basically it is a two horse race and the fix is in that Biden will get the Democratic nomination. Which stands to reason.
 
The next debate will starkly show that not all 78 year-olds are equally lucid, energetic, and capable of stringing together words into a sentence. What I find heartening about last night is that even with all the combined efforts of the Democratic party and a candidate who has been pushed into the spotlight by the entire media establishment and the sacrificial corpses of the other centrists, Bernie is still in this thing. If that was their coup de grace, and there are still more than 1600 delegates up for grabs (Biden is ahead by 71), it's good that they got it out of the way so soon. Now Bernie's campaign can regroup, recover, and focus all its efforts on defeating one candidate instead of four or five. And the one he has to beat is without a doubt the weakest one.
 
The next debate will starkly show that not all 78 year-olds are equally lucid, energetic, and capable of stringing together words into a sentence. What I find heartening about last night is that even with all the combined efforts of the Democratic party and a candidate who has been pushed into the spotlight by the entire media establishment and the sacrificial corpses of the other centrists, Bernie is still in this thing.
Sounds like a fan of a team that has gone down 2-0 and is headed for the road.
If that was their coup de grace, and there are still more than 1600 delegates up for grabs (Biden is ahead by 71), it's good that they got it out of the way so soon. Now Bernie's campaign can regroup, recover, and focus all its efforts on defeating one candidate instead of four or five. And the one he has to beat is without a doubt the weakest one.
Sanders knows much better. He doesn't have to care about Biden. He has to care about the African American voter who he is still struggling to get a handle on.
 
Looking at the Exit Polls, Sanders doesn't do as well with Democrat exit polls that are reporting as being 40% of more moderate or conservative. This would generally be the Battleground States in the election, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida. Sanders did do well in Colorado with the 3 to 1 Hispanic to African American turnout.
 
The next debate will starkly show that not all 78 year-olds are equally lucid, energetic, and capable of stringing together words into a sentence. What I find heartening about last night is that even with all the combined efforts of the Democratic party and a candidate who has been pushed into the spotlight by the entire media establishment and the sacrificial corpses of the other centrists, Bernie is still in this thing.
Sounds like a fan of a team that has gone down 2-0 and is headed for the road.
If that was their coup de grace, and there are still more than 1600 delegates up for grabs (Biden is ahead by 71), it's good that they got it out of the way so soon. Now Bernie's campaign can regroup, recover, and focus all its efforts on defeating one candidate instead of four or five. And the one he has to beat is without a doubt the weakest one.
Sanders knows much better. He doesn't have to care about Biden. He has to care about the African American voter who he is still struggling to get a handle on.

Sanders barely won a majority in his home state (50.7%), compared to 86% in 2016. Even if all of Warren's people had voted for him, he would have only been at 63.3%. That's embarrassing.

He did well in the states with the highest % of early voting. Another bad sign, given the momentum shift.
 
It's not embarrassing at all to win an election. People in Vermont are not idiots, just voting for someone because they are from Vermont. Instead, there is a spectrum of ideological representation within the Vermont Democratic Party. Bernie's opponents represented that spectrum of ideology within the Party ranging from centrist to progressive. Bloomberg and Klobuchar took the centrist/moderate position, claiming electability, too. Buttigieg claimed a center-left lane. Biden was in the same lane as Buttigieg. Each person also has to consider other things like electability and different people consider it differently. External factors inform the electorate about electability and ideology and I've already mentioned one which is the media. I've linked to media bias in debate questions and coverage and that surely impacted at least some of the votes.
 
It's so easy to fall back on conspiracy theories, isn't it, especially when facts are inconvenient. The facts are that everything had been going Sanders' way, but he still wasn't able to build a strong case for the nomination. He had money, people, and strong showings in the first states. But he hit the wall, hard, in SC, and overnight, his weakness was exposed. The simple fact is that vast numbers of average Americans are afraid of him and his platform, which lots of people hear as "free everything for everyone".

The DNC isn't 1/10th as smart or as capable as your scenario needs them to be.

Look, what happened is pretty clear! The Media, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Warren all met in the Democratic National Committee's star chamber in the run-up to Super Tuesday. The leader of the sinister cabal said "okay people, we've got a problem! Bernie won in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, and..."

Pete piped in..."um, sir, I won Iowa...."

"Shut up, kid! We always rig Iowa to make it seem like a race, when we already know who the winner is going to be! Now, we're still crunching the numbers on the other two, but something went wrong there and we've got to do something quick. Biden won in South Carolina because we had Clyburn rig all the voting machines and paid everyone to lie in the exit polls, but this Sanders guy could very well win just like he would have in 2016 if we hadn't replaced all those delegates with crisis actors paid in Soros Bucks! So here's what we do...Pete, Amy, you both drop out before the primary. Give 'em the 'the math just didn't work out' line or something to throw them off the trail that you've been working for us the whole time. Mike?

"Sir?"

"You've been great, buying all that ad time and paying all those people to help us rig the primary, but it'll look weird if you keep continuing to lose and stay in the race. So once our people take charge of all the states and throw it for Biden, we need you to drop out and endorse Biden. Sure, we'll let Bernie have California, Colorado, and Vermont just to make it seem like he gave it a good run, but we've already coordinated with our friends here from the Media to call the night for Joe before a single vote is 'counted.' Liz?"

"Yes?"

'You've done a good job of splitting off the older progressives. With our 'your primary vote doesn't matter' stealth social media campaign in full swing now, we're going to need you to stay in for a bit, then bail."

"You betcha!"

"Now, as you all know, Hillary is going to 'resurface' just after we hand Joe the win, and we're still trying to figure out if he's going to have her as running mate, or if there's a way we can just give her the nomination like last time. Now, get out there, people, and rig these elections!"



Or, alternately, Bernie supporters just didn't show up and vote. Tough call.
 
It’s only going to get worse from here for Bernie. Biden’s gaffs are well known and expected.
Consider too, Super Tuesday voters were scattered among many candidates due to early voting. That’s not going to be the case any longer. Biden likely picked up the majority of the voters from the recent dropouts and if Elizabeth goes, they’ll probably split her voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Warren goes silent on backing Bernie if she drops out. Bernie only picked up the Latino vote thanks to AOC. And the thought of loosing down ballot elections with a Bernie nomination is now hanging over his head.
 
Bernie only picked up the Latino vote thanks to AOC.

Doubtful, I don't think her endorsement would carry particular weight, more-so among the young than Latino voters. Especially across states. Latino is almost a waste-basket category. Latinos in Texas are very different than Latinos in California who are very different than Latinos in Florida. Bernie's campaign has made Latino/Black outreach a core part of it's strategy, and it's a state by state strategy.
 
and if Elizabeth goes, they’ll probably split her voters.

A lot of Warren supporters, especially women, are saying they're going for Biden, at least in part because they're tired of the angry old guy yelling at them to get off his lawn for the past four years. The incessant establishment-bashing of voters in his own party (well, at least the party whose nomination he wants) and scorched-earth agenda aren't winning their hearts and/or minds.

So if Biden gets Bloomberg's votes (and his money), and most of Warren's, and the super-delegates, you can stick a fork in Sanders. SCROTUS is going to be working overtime trying to prop him up.
 
and if Elizabeth goes, they’ll probably split her voters.

A lot of Warren supporters, especially women, are saying they're going for Biden, at least in part because they're tired of the angry old guy yelling at them to get off his lawn for the past four years. The incessant establishment-bashing of voters in his own party (well, at least the party whose nomination he wants) and scorched-earth agenda aren't winning their hearts and/or minds.

So if Biden gets Bloomberg's votes (and his money), and most of Warren's, and the super-delegates, you can stick a fork in Sanders. SCROTUS is going to be working overtime trying to prop him up.

My bold: Not that I want to see it happen to Bernie but if Biden is going to win, I'd really like to see it snowball from here to send a message to Trump that Biden is coming for him and hell's coming with him.
 
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